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Is Goldbees in your portfolio useful ?I recently heard few comments from some of successful investors that having gold does not really help in hedging portfolio. While expert stock pickers may be right that their portfolio does well in any weather. For small investor it is not easy. I have plotted gold vs niftyjr as my choice is to invest in niftyjr.
Since I have been using gold as one form of cash component ie when not invested in equity I park partially in goldbess and debt funds, Also got reasonable returns in gold while equities were in correction phase. One such phase is currently going on.
So thought of checking out on historical chart.
To appreciate you need to zoom so that blue or red area fills your screen.
gold bees that I bought in july/aug 21 is available for adding niftyjr in this fall.
Nifty short term view - 9th March Nifty is closing below 17600 but 17550 is a good strong support and it is also around March series avwap levels. Current level is also a fibo support level if plotted between recent swings. On short time frame it is also showing a divergence.
Last expiry also was a trapping candle where a lot of shorts were invited into the system only to take them away in next day's gap up and short covering rally.
Any carry forward today can be risky, please manage your risk accordingly :)
Happy Trading :)
Nifty spot Possible Elliot wave countsHere we have plotted possible Elliott wave counts of Nifty spot chart on hourly time frame, we are assuming equality level of (W) and (Y) near 16600 levels.
Currently we are unfolding wave (Y) in which we are still in wave v of wave A near yet to complete, post wave A we are assuming to start wave B, which can just be counter trend rally, and also it can generate new opportunity to short fresh positions on completion of wave B to start fresh fall as wave C of wave (Y).
here we are assuming small rally to complete wave B along with invalidation level of bottom of wave A swing low, and then big fall to complete wave C of wave (Y) along with invalidation level of high of wave B swing high.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 28 Feb 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 28 Feb 2023
Buy-Above 17415
Sl-17365
T- 17475 17535
Sell-Below 17299
Sl-17350
T- 17225 17150
NIFTY has closed with 0.42% cut today. It opened and sell triggered as per trades setup Trade gave more than 110 points gain (17420-17299, 1:2) and hit our target. A dot reversal was seen from the PRZ plotted as 2nd target. It has formed a hammer in TF at previous swing low in daily TF. Above its high we will inch higher (towards 17650 and 17800 )which will be the pullback of whole parabolic down move. Selling will resume below 17299 only and that will be towards 16600-700. Also we will give reversal of the whole down move which started from Dec 2022 if we make a hammer in weekly TF.
Coming to Tuesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 17415 then we will long for the target of 17475 and 17535. Extended T- 17635.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 17299. T- 17225 and 17150. Extended T- 16990.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
Potential Range BreakoutAnother very simple technical analysis which works wonders in the markets.
We have heard of BREAKOUTS. It could be upside or downside. It could be a breakout of any zone, consolidation, range, trendline, any indicator or anything. The Important thing is that a breakout BREAKS OFF an Important Level in the market. There can be many indications when there can be a potential breakout, out of which one is a simple CONSOLIDATION around the Zone.
CONSOLIDATION is a PRICE ACTION which says that buyers and sellers are accumulating in a tight range and obviously one has to win after a tussle, so whosoever wins will take the price with him. Now in case of a Resistance or Support if the price is consolidating near its resistance and support and attracting to it multiple times (in this case the Price is going to its resistance 4th time), it becomes weak and it may mean that it is continuously trying to break that level . And if it fails to do so it will again come back into its range.
ENTRY can be made at the same price i.e 1657 for aggressive trading or whenever it gives a closing out of the Consolidation zone in weekly candle.
STOPLOSS - If it gives closing below the consolidation zone.(However Closing below this zone will also give an opportunity to go short)
Reward/Profit - It can be projected by plotting the same price range upside the resistance as it was trading before. In this case it shows a target of Rupees 2000.
**Market is a game of probability, No-one is 100% right here, no one needs to be, to become profitable. The ultimate goal is to make money and to trade taking only calculated losses.
BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 10 Feb 2023BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 10 Feb 2023
Buy-Above 41625
Sl-41515
T-41810 42000+
Sell-Below 41450
Sl-41560
T-41255 41069
BANKNIFTY has closed on a flat note with just 16 points gain today. It has been closing exactly at the same place for the last 3 days. Daily candle looks like a buyer's candle and above its high buyers should dominate and in that case it can test 42000 round level which is also a swing high in hourly TF. Below its low aggressive selling can be seen and that will be breakdown in hourly TF. These two levels are important. Today market opened with a slight gap up and sell triggered below 41400 and very smoothly it gave 150 points gain; more than 1:1.
Coming to Friday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 41625 then we will long for the target of 41820 and 42000+
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 41450. T- 41250. Below 41250 if sustained then aggressive selling can be seen till plotted targets.
Be strict with trailing with RR
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 7 Feb 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 7 Feb 2023
Buy-Above 17785
Sl-17735
T-17870 17970
Sell-Below 17695
Sl-17745
T-17615 17545
NIFTY has closed on a bearish sentiment with 0.5% cut today. It is inside the range of ultra wide range of Budget day and now it is also inside yesterday's range. Total volatility contraction due to IV crash. Today It opened flat and just traded inside 10 o'clock range the whole day. 17700 which was plotted yesterday as a support was defended. We will simply use today's range (17785-17695) to build our trade the next day.
Coming to Tuesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle close above 17785 then we will long for the target of 17870 and 17970+.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 17695. T- 17615 and 17545.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 17 Jan 2023BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 17 Jan 2023
Buy-Above 42460
Sl-42350
T-42700 42950
Sell-Below 42060
Sl-42170
T-41885 41710
BANKNIFTY has closed on a bearish sentiment with 0.48% cut today. It opened with a gap up directly at PRZ plotted 42700. A dot reversal was seen from there. It opened with a decent gap up and we already planned that we will trade on 10 o'clock range breakout. It broke below 42445 and 300 points profit with just 100 points sl. Market is likely to show these big length volatile moves ahead of budget. Index has made a range of 980 (42720-41720) points in hourly TF. In between it will be seesaw market.
Coming to Tuesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 42460 then we will long for the target of 42700 and 42950.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 42060. T- 41885 and 41710.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
NIFTY (TIME & LUNAR CYCLE)The very word “lunacy” dates back to the 15th century when it was believed the moon and its phases could make people become more or less aggressive, depending on its place in the lunar cycle
Several studies found a connection between full and new Moons and stock market performance. Generally, stocks tend to perform better in the days around the New Moon, while price weakness is more frequently seen in the days around Full Moon. It was also observed that major market crashes have a history of happening about 3 days before a New Moon. We will try to understand the significance of cyclical movements in Nifty its theory and few previously applied practical executions (that gave precise accuracy) and at last try to predict NIFTY for the upcoming time using the same.
Let’s try to put the very same concept of Lunar Cycles and Time cycles in Nifty and draw a conclusion of the possible scenario that could happen in future after drawing a pattern from the past.
LUNAR CYCLES IN NIFTY:
Every downside rally starts or intensifies with Full Moon Day. If we look at downside rally starting 19th OCT 2021, it started just a day before full moon day and market fell by almost 12%.
- On downside rally starting 18th JAN 2022, which started just a day after full moon day and market fell by almost 14.60%.
- On downside rally starting 5th APR 2022, which started just few days before full moon day and market fell by almost 16%.
- On downside rally starting 15th SEPT 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 7.5%.
- On downside rally starting 2th DEC 2022, which started just few days after full moon day and market fell by almost 5.87%
Just Lunar Cycle alone is not enough as these are also confirmed by 55 Days Reversal cycle. This ongoing reversal was well informed before it was initiated .Please check this analysis (dated 2nd Dec 2022) to find the same:
The current high was predicted based on Fibonacci Retracement (dated 29th OCT 2022, Target done on 1st DEC 2022)
If we look at the past we can see that the process of Low formation takes a time of about 99-101 days approximately, which means in every 99 to 101 days a low is formed where after Nifty rallies upside by a whopping 10% minimum.
One more interesting pattern that can be seen is after a low is formed Nifty forms the high in 3 * x number of days, such as 27 days , 87 days or 63 days ( Anything that is a multiple of 3), the remaining days when subtracted from 100, are the days it takes to form the low. It has been plotted with date range in the chart itself. This is how we should try to find a time cycle pattern .But anyways as we have predicted the high with a price and time confirmation successfully, we should be focusing on finding the bottom of NIFTY where we can get a buy opportunity.
If we do the Mathematics behind the low formation and high low formation then we will come to a hypothetical result that an initiation of upside in NIFTY may be seen just before or after 6th JAN. Because the previous low formation date was 29th Sept 2022 and 100 days from it is 6th JAN 2022. Expected NIFTY downside levels are mentioned in the chart itself.
OR ELSE THE CALCULATION MAY BE COMPUTED IN THIS WAY:
The previous low was formed was in 29th Sept 2022 and market rallied upside for approximately 63 days and remaining is 37 days to complete the 99-101 days Low formation cycle. So probably NIFTY may finish the correction near to 6th JAN 2022.
This is just an example that how time cycles are needed to be identified by a trader as it is not visible easily. Moreover in predictive analysis the probability of any error is high. So one possibility we can’t ignore is that market may bottom out before the mentioned date but I strongly feel the aggressive upside may be seen only near to 6th JAN 2022.
CHART & ANALYSIS
ADARSH DEY
GODREJPROP, buy the dip? Realty sector expected to boom.Hello traders,
this is another stock which is at dip, and has great potential for upmove in the long run, is it the right time to buy the dip? Let us look onto the fundamental analysis of GODREJPROP.
Do note that although I haven't mentioned most of the information, but a short note so that you can check out important points and it will take less time :)
realty sector is expected to boom as finance minister is thinking to give budget boost to realty sector.
godrejprop is one of the best stocks in realty sector with a market cap of 33,358 cr, and is now at long term support.
A short description about the company:
Godrej Properties Limited (GPL) is the real estate development arm of the Godrej Group, which was started in 1897 and is today one of India’s most successful conglomerates. Godrej Properties brings the Godrej Group philosophy of innovation, sustainability, and excellence to the real estate industry.
If you look at the consolidated financial statements of the company over the last 5 years:
Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 8.33%, vs industry avg of 1.51%
Over the last 5 years, market share increased from 3.09% to 4.14%
Over the last 5 years, net income has grown at a yearly rate of 11.25%, vs industry avg of 10.31%
Over the last 5 years, Industry current ratio has been 146.22%, vs industry avg of 133.65%
the company also has a higher EPS (Earnings Per Share) indicating a high profitability.
Expected earnings growth of 90.98% for next year is more than last 3 year CAGR earnings growth of 3.73%
The Co. focuses on creating a healthy project pipeline. While continuing its focus on the four key markets of Mumbai, National Capital Region, Bengaluru and Pune, the company is now also looking to enter peripheral markets and tier 2 cities through plotted developments.
Also, The company has the lowest bank funding cost of 5.95% p.a. in the sector due to its robust financial position and the goodwill of the company for being a part of Godrej Group.
Pros of the company at current scenario:
* Company is expected to give good quarterly results.
* Debtor days have been improved from 74.2 to 38.3 days.
this is the latest News about godrejprop :
Godrej properties has sold over 1 million square feet of area at the launch of a new project, Celeste, in its township, Godrej Garden City, in Ahmedabad.
The company has sold 870 homes with a booking value of approximately Rs 435 crore since the project was launched in October, last year, it said in a statement.
The project covers nearly 2.3 hectares and includes 8 towers which offer homes and retail outlets of various configurations. It also has a wide range of state-of-the-art amenities covering social, health, and leisure requirements across age groups.
If you look at the charts, the stock is at a 4 year old long term support zone, and it expected to give reversal. also the stock is near 52 week lows.
Given below are the links of my ideas of my other long term picks that are recently posted. Do check it out :)
Market has crashed so few of our stocks have corrected from our entry prices. Don't worry, these companies are fundamentally good and therefore we can keep accumulating on dips.
As always, simple and neat charts so everyone can understand and not make it too complicated.
Will be posting more such ideas like this. Until that, like share and follow :)
check my other ideas to get to know about all the successful trades based on price action.
Thanks,
Aniket.
keep learning and keep earning.
Tata Steel LongWe have plotted regression line, anchored VWAP signal and Elliot wave in hourly time frame. Stock is having robust fundamental strength with PE of mere 5.63. Anyone can go long in Tata Steel , if stock is goes above VWAP line i.e. INR 111.10 . Stock is having potential to go up up to INR 119-125 in near future .
hope, you are enjoying my analysis, please share, like and comment. Your feedback is ultimate one.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 4 Jan 2023NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 4 Jan 2023
Buy-Above 18255
Sl-18205
T- 18322 18400
Sell-Below 18205
Sl-18255
T-18138 18074
NIFTY has closed almost on a flat note with slight gain of 0.19%. It has closed near day high which is showing strength. Last day also it closed near day high. This bullish sentiment will burst out above 18270, it is the high of the mother candle (inside candle). Index can turn bearish below today's low if sustained below. Keep an close eye on the trendline plotted with the last swing low. Today buy triggered above 18220 then it was updated to trail sl which was hit (C2C).
Coming to Wednesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 18255 then we will long for the target of 18322 and 18400. Extended target - 18500.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 18205. T- 18138 and 18074. Extended target- 17955.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range. Trade on this range breakout.
Keep Eye On Nasdaq100Nasdaq Daily Chart Analysis
Plotted = Fib + Upar Trend Line + Consolidation Zone Area
Currently Nasdaq in Correction Period , Deciding the bottom of the correction
Every Lower Point is important for buyers for long term investment