AsianPaints | Wyckoff Events & Phases Explained !!Wyckoff developed a price action market theory which is still a leading principle in today's trading practice.
The Wyckoff method states that the price cycle of a traded instrument consists of 4 stages – Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and MarkDown.
👉TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE Accumulation Schematic: Wyckoff Events and Phases
Price Action Analysis
And this is the accumulation stage -
1) PS— Preliminary Support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a continued down-move.
- Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
2) SC—Selling Climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually in high point and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom.
- Often price will close well off the low in an SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
3) AR—Automatic Rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly decline.
- A wave of buying easily pushes prices up.
- The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation.
4) ST—Secondary Test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand.
- If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be decline as the market approaches support in the area of the SC.
- It is common to have multiple STs after an SC.
5) SOS—Sign Of Strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume.
6) LPS—Last Point Of Support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS.
7) BU/LPS- Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistant, on diminished spread and volume.
All the phases of accumulation stage-
Phase A:
Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend.
-- Up to this point, supply has been dominant.
-- The approaching cutback of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC).
-- A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC.
-- If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation.
-- Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above.
Phase B:
-- Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend
-- In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup.
--There are usually multiple STs during Phase B'
-- Institutional buying and selling impart the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.
--Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume.
Phase C:
-- It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a final test of the remaining supply.
-- this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears).
-- It indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.
-- The appearance of an SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis.
Phase D:
--During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top
--LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E:
--large operators can occur at any point in Phase E.
--These are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.
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JK Tyre: A Wyckoff Spring in Intra, Long-Term BullishPrice seems to have completed a Wyckoff Spring in the hourly time frame. The stock is in a uptrend in the daily time frame. A breakout past the recent high of 185 would be a positive outcome and strengthen the case for the Wyckoff Spring argument. The occurrence of this Spring at the "Breakout-Retest" zone in the weekly & monthly time frame strengthens the bullish case bias.
This stock is in my watchlist and I might consider buying it tomorrow.
Wyckoff distribution of Deepak Nitrate This scrip is highly overvalued, and fair value is around 888 (personal view after deliberating fundamentals). Currently, Wyckoff distribution is playing out, and further downside is expected.
Fundamentally, scrip is strong, but it is highly overvalued due to excess liquidity. With each interest rate hikes, the fair value, which is 55% of the highs of pre-covid level may become available with squeez in liquidity. At 1850 it is appx 225% of the pre-covid highs, insanely high!
Technically, it is under-pressure, and further pain can be expected in distributive manner, until a fair value is achieved.
For further information, look at the chart. It is self-explanatory!
Disclaimer: For educational purpose. Consult your financial advisor before investing.
Just Dial: Is It a Wyckoff Accumulation Range ?The trend channel represents the channeling technique used by Wyckoff. After a throw-under, representing the Selling-Climax, price has bounced sharply, which is labelled as "Automatic Rally"
If the assessment is right, expect this stock to spend some time in the range marked by the magenta lines - 375-903.
Wyckoff diagram EURNZD 1/10It is not possible to show the whole and more clearly diagram since it was done in M3, but here the price is in a very high liquidity zone in H4, so we look in micro for wyckoff structures. The entry was taken in back up to creek, just right after when there was BOS.
This is one of the longest and highest R/R trades I have had so far.
Wyckoff diagram in micro M30This is what I expect for EURUSD based on Wyckoff method, I may say that the the spring was already done in NY time, since the price is a liquidity zone in macro, so the price may go up to capitalize and then continue with its tendency, these are trades with very low SLs in order to have a very good R/R
Identifying Institutional footprints using Wyckoff AccumulationHere I am using 63Moons monthly chart to explain how Wyckoff Accumulation works. The Wyckoff Accumulation has 5 major phases.
Phase A - Stopping the previous trend
Phase A marks the stopping of prior downtrend.
The Preliminary Support(PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up but still not enough to stop the downward move.
The Selling Climax(SC) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors panic. This is a point of high volatility where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop then quickly reverses into a bounce also known as Automatic Rally(AR) as excessive supply is absorbed by buyers.
The Secondary Test(ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point the trading volume and volatility tend to be lower. ST generally forms at or above the same price level as the SC, if the ST goes lower than that of Sc one should anticipate new lows or prolonged consolidation.
The lows of the SC and the ST and the high of AR set the boundaries of the trading range(TR).
Phase B - Building the cause
Phase B serves the function of building a cause for new uptrend. Basically the idea is that something cannot happen out of nowhere, that to see a change in price a root cause must first have been built. Generally causes are constructed through a major change of hands between well informed & uninformed operators in an anticipation of the next markup.
This institutional accumulation takes a long time sometimes more than a year. As institutions do their due diligence and take their required positions.
There are usually multiple STs during Phase B as well as upthrust type actions near the upper range of TR. Early on in Phase B the price swing tends to be wide and accompanied with high volume. As professionals absorb the supply the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that the supply is likely to have been exhausted the stock is ready for Phase C.
Phase C - Test
In Phase C the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply. In Wyckoffian Analysis a successful test of supply is represented by a spring(shakeout). A low volume spring(or low volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely ready to move up.
A spring is a price move below the support level of the trading range (which is established by low of STs in Phase A and B) that quickly reverses and moves back to TR.
The spring action is very important and ideal because the greater the movement, the more liquidity you will be able to capture and there the more gasoline the subsequent movement will have.
Phase D - Trend within range
Phase D consists of breakout and confirmation events. After the shakeout event the price should now develop a clear trend movement within the range with wide candles. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances known as Signs of Strength(SOS) on widening price spreads and increasing volume as well as reactions (Last point of Support LPS)on smaller spreads and diminished volumes.
During Phase D the price will move at least to the top of the Trading range. LPS in this phase are excellent places to initiate long positions.
Phase E - Trend out of range
In Phase E the stock breaches the trading range. This phase consists of impulsive and reactive movements and some shakeouts which are short lived. The price here abandons the structure upon which the cause has been built previously and begins a new trend as an effect of the same.
Coming to the chart of 63 Moons any pullback near 180-160 is an excellent place to initiate positions. The Phase E is gonna start soon in this scrip.
Hope you liked my analysis.
VARROC ENGINEERING WYCKOFF ACCUMULATIONVarroc Engineering is focused on designing, manufacturing and supplying exterior lighting systems, plastic and polymer components, and electrical and electronics components
Market Cap : 5000cr Market Cap set your positions accordingly
Sector : Auto Ancillary
VARROC ENGINEERING is in a 4 month trading range, the analysis done above is through Wyckoff method and we get what looks like a accumulation TR (trading range).
PHASE A : The TR got established from 15th September where it did the highest volume since it's IPO in 2018. Labelled the PSY , SC , AR as Upthrust Action followed by a low spread Secondary Test on good volume leaving a wick and closing in green shows hints at some absorption happening that marks the PHASE A and CHoCH ( Change of Character ) the bias for the TR at this point is bullish.
PHASE B : Secondary Test on 21st October with huge volume but closed below the AR 319.80 level which shows rejection, at this point we can conclude the price is not ready for the markup phase and still needs to spend some time in TR followed by the price falling off with low volumes and low spread indicating no further new selling but also fall in demand till 16th Nov where the price went below the ST in PHASE A but on low volumes then buying demand came and closed above previous 4 Days close with fair volume and good spread.
PHASE C : The hardest part is identifying PHASE C but it is the only thing matters followed by PHASE D in Wyckoff Method.
16th - 17th Nov the stock had good volumes and good spread indicating SOS rally but failed to closed above AR levels , also the following week/month Nifty ( Comparative Index/ Market Proxy ) had faced Volatility on the down side and 29th Nov being the biggest fall in Nifty since 2 quarters but the underlying stock didn't broke the ST(PHASE B) levels. This shows positive jump in Relative Strength and the start of it.
On 7th Dec the candle showed some demand and followed buying crossing above the AR, ST(PHASE B) levels giving couple of closes above the TR so we mark the low on 6th Dec as LPS (Last point of Support) and Conclude Phase C. Though we missed our First of Four entry points but given the Volatile Market conditions it was hard to Initiate.
PHASE D : PHASE D in the Wyckoff Method indicates a SOS ( Sign of Strength) TR above the previous TR , BU ( Backing Up Action) and LPS/ Multiple LPS.
In this stock's case after the SOS rally the volumes cooled off with slide in price we mark the last swing ended as ST=UT because it wasn't a SOS because the price failed to sustain above the TR and came back in the TR , the market proxy faced huge volatility and made a new low from it's previous levels with big spreads but the underlying stock didn't made a new low thus forming a Higher High - Higher low formation showing relative strength even though it closed -9% and the price is now rising with lower spread and volumes, thus we mark the low as LPS.
We make a uptrend channel by connecting two lows and the high.
Conclusion :
Scenario # 1 : The stock still seems to be in PHASE D also trying to cross above 200 Dema and 100 Dema if it shows SOS above 336 we can expect PHASE E (Markup PHASE), CHoCH and we can start a bull campaign and further add positions with trailing stoploss on LPS/Channel/DEMA.
Scenario # 2 : If the price breaks Channel we can expect that the stock needs to spend more time in TR.
Scenario # 3 : If the price also breaks LPS then the TR can be extended way further or can be concluded as a Distribution PHASE .
SGX nifty Wyckoff accumulationThe SGX NIFTY appears to be in a period of accumulation, according to the Wyckoff method of technical analysis. This pattern is characterized by a trading range in which there is a buildup of buying pressure, as evidenced by a series of higher lows and a lack of significant selling pressure. Based on this analysis, it is likely that the NIFTY will experience a strong upward move in the near future. However, it is important to note that technical analysis is not an exact science and past performance is not indicative of future results. It's important to do your own research and use this analysis as one piece of information among many when making investment decisions.