EURUSD bulls keep control ahead of ECB Minutes, US dataEURUSD pares the biggest daily gains of the week while posting mild losses early Friday. Even so, the Euro pair remains on the way to posting a four-week uptrend as traders prepare for the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, also known as the ECB Minutes, as well as the preliminary readings of the US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. It should be noted that upbeat RSI and MACD conditions keep the buyers hopeful but a downward-sloping resistance line from early March, close to 1.0790 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the pair. Apart from the oscillators like RSI and MACD, the looming “Golden Cross”, a bullish moving average crossover, also keep the buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside of the 5.5-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0825 as we write, becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the gradual run-up toward March’s high of 1.0980 and then to the 1.1000 threshold can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, a pullback move remains uninteresting beyond the 50-SMA support of 1.0735. Following that, the lows marked in April and February, respectively around 1.0725 and 1.0695, could test the EURUSD bears before directing them to the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600. It’s worth noting that the Euro pair’s sustained weakness past 1.0600 makes it vulnerable to challenge the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450-45 but the same needs validation from the strong US fundamentals, as well as downbeat EU catalysts.
Overall, EURUSD bulls are likely to retake control after staying off the grid for some time.
However, the fundamentals need to back the pair’s bullish technical details to support the upside bias.
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Gold grinds within the falling wedge ahead of the US NFPGold price brace for the second consecutive weekly loss despite downbeat US Dollar performance. In doing so, the precious metal seesaws between the 50-SMA and the 200-SMA while posting mild intraday losses within a two-week-old falling wedge bullish chart formation. That said, cautious sentiment ahead of the monthly US employment report and sluggish oscillators restrict the XAUUSD’s immediate moves within the bullish chart pattern. It should be noted that a downside break of the 200-SMA level of $2,289 will direct the sellers toward the stated wedge’s bottom line surrounding $2,278, a break of which will defy the bullish chart formation and can drag the commodity prices toward the early April swing high of around $2,265.
On the contrary, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the previously stated falling wedge’s top line, close to $2,319-20, appears a tough nut to crack for Gold buyers. Following that, the late April swing high of around $2,353 and the $2,400 threshold will lure the XAUUSD bulls. In a case where the Gold buyers remain confident past $2,400, the theoretical target of the falling wedge confirmation, near $2,440, will be in the spotlight.
Overall, Gold portrays bullish consolidation ahead of the key US employment data, despite the US Dollar’s downbeat performance.
SILVER AT SUPPORT Silver is at angular support in daily tf. bullish reverse divergence is also seen in daily tf where the price is making a higher low but oscillators are making a lower low.
monthly time frame is positive, silver is showing bullish signs. 78596 is a strong support zone.
study purpose. kindly do your own study before taking any trades.
Bank NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Bank Nifty is posted a new ATH from where it got sold off. The Bank Nifty moved in range of 633 points Viz. between 49057 & 48424. The Bank Nifty posted a bearish candle with higher lows and higher highs. The big picture shows that it is moving in an ascending channel with lower support at 44600 and resistance at 50200 with a pivot at 47600. The current move appears to be following a trend resistance at 49300 and support at 47900 followed by 46850. .The Bank Nifty appeared to be catching up the lost opportunities. The oscillators are showing mixed signal. Next few weeks are crucial for the Bank Nifty to recover with sharp move or meltdown towards 46K. The resistance comes in at 49170-350 range and the support at 46750. Unless the Bank Nifty crosses 49200 on a daily closing basis we can expect the target for the current gravestone Doji type candle is 46750. The expected range for Bank Nifty is 47500-49150.and a daily close outside the range would require re-evaluation of risk and target.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Index crossed the key resistance one of 22510-530 and posted a new ATH of 22775. However, it is seen struggling to maintain the gains and ended the week with a bearish candle after three weeks of positive candles. The Index is moving in channel and is expected to decline towards the lower end of the support and consolidate before taking further direction.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
The index moved in a narrow range of 272 points viz. between 22775 and 22503
The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
After 3 weeks of strong gains the Index is facing profit booking and the perception seems to be turning negative
Index breaching 22500-530 would see quick slide towards 22220 and possibly a panic selling towards 22070
Additional interesting observations
Index posted a bearish candle and seem to reverse from the top of the channel at 22775 which indicates the consolidation phase
Net milestone of 23K appears to be in trouble and is expected to take longer time to achieve
Index may find supports at 22370, 22220, 22070 and the index could face series resistances at, 22620, 22770, 22880
There were multiple gaps created during this dream run. The levels were repeatedly mentioned in the previous blogs. Since they are far away for now, they will be inserted back when relevant
Final Note
The Index has stayed well above 55 DMA at 22066 and the 200 DMA at 20552
The weekly charts suggest that the Index is moving in an ascending channel with top at 22870 and lower end support at 22120
The notable observation is that the daily charts show signs of deep trouble unless gains 22700 and the likely move towards 22K if key support at 22220 breaches and below 22K would be considered as deeply negative for a slide towards 21600
Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 22040 & 22620. Breach on either side requires reassessment of risk
In the past few years the April month has produced higher levels yet the closing has been mixed. It remains to be seen how the scenario unfolds
The Index posted a new ATH. However, it got sold-off to close around the same 22520 zone.
The Q4 results expected to be positive and keep the markets at higher levels. However, the uncertainties on account of the forth coming elections would keep the gains subdued
Ensuing week is crucial for deciding the future direction and the target
Going by the technical indicators the broader range for April is 21920-22765. Breach on any side requires re-evaluation
#Stay Safe
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
Bank NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Bank Nifty moved in range of 1278 points Viz. between 47279 & 48557. The Bank Nifty posted a bullish candle with higher lows and higher highs. The big picture shows that it is moving in an ascending channel with lower support at 44600 and resistance at 50200 with a pivot at 47600.The Bank Nifty seem to be catching up the lost opportunities. Within the channel there exists a minor a an ascending channel. The oscillators are showing mixed signal. Next few weeks are crucial for the Bank Nifty to recover with sharp move or meltdown towards 45K. The Bank Nifty is edging towards the previous ATH and in all probabilities it is likely to reach a new ATH. The resistance cones in at 49170-200 range and the support at 46950. The expected range for Bank Nifty is 47500-49150.and a daily close outside the range would require re-evaluation of risk and target.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
Long Position Opportunity in GR Infrastructures A promising long position opportunity emerges in GR Infrastructures, as both price action and key indicators signal a potential reversal.
*Technical Analysis:*
Recent price action in GR Infrastructures has shown signs of a keen reversal, supported by various technical indicators. Notably, indicators such as MACD, RSI, and stochastic oscillators are exhibiting bullish divergences or crossover patterns, suggesting a shift in momentum towards the upside. Additionally, the stock price has approached significant support levels, further enhancing the bullish outlook.
*Trade Setup:*
For traders considering a long position, precise target and stop-loss levels are essential components of a well-defined trading strategy. These levels, meticulously outlined on the accompanying charts, offer clear guidance for entry, exit, and risk management.
*Target and Stop-loss Levels:*
- *Target:* Identified resistance levels indicate a potential upside target for the trade, reflecting the anticipated bullish momentum.
- *Stop-loss:* A predetermined stop-loss level is strategically placed to mitigate downside risk and safeguard capital against adverse price movements.
*Conclusion:*
In conclusion, GR Infrastructures presents an attractive opportunity for a long position, characterized by compelling reversal signals on both price action and technical indicators. Traders are advised to carefully consider the provided target and stop-loss levels to execute the trade effectively and manage risk prudently.
Disclaimer: Trading involves inherent risks, and individuals should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
USDJPY grinds within immediate range amid holiday-shortened weekUSDJPY registered the first weekly loss in three amid mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move, especially when the policymakers hesitated to stick to the hawkish plan after the first rate hike in 17 years. However, the broad US Dollar strength and an upbeat performance of the yields put a floor under the prices. Apart from the mixed fundamentals, the Yen pair’s inability to break the seven-week-old horizontal support zone surrounding 150.75-90, as well as cross an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from March 20, close to the 152.00 threshold, restrict short-term moves of the pair. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 100 and 200 SMA join steady oscillators to keep the buyers hopeful. That said, an upside clearance of the 152.00 immediate resistance could quickly propel the prices toward a three-week-old support-turned-resistance, around 152.90. Following that, the June 1990 high of 155.80 will be in the spotlight.
On the contrary, a downside break of the seven-week-old horizontal support of 150.75-90 will direct the USDJPY sellers toward the 200 and 100 SMA levels, respectively near 150.00 and 149.75 at the latest. In a case where the Yen pair sellers keep the reins past 149.75, the March 18 swing high of 149.30 and the 149.00 round figure will act as the final defense of the buyers before directing the sellers toward the previous monthly high of near 146.50.
Overall, the mixed catalysts join the Easter Monday holiday in major markets and a light calendar to restrict the USDJPY pair’s moves. However, the quote remains on the bull’s radar.
Bank NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Bank Nifty moved in range of 915 points Viz. between 46529 & 47440. The Bank Nifty posted a bullish candle with higher lows and higher highs. The big picture shows that it is moving in an ascending channel with lower support at 44600 and resistance at 50200 with a pivot at 47600.The Bank Nifty has been underperforming compared to the main Index. Within the channel there exists a minor a descending channel as well as an ascending channel. The Bank Nifty is truly at cross roads and makes it difficult to decipher which minor trend it actually follows. The oscillators are showing mixed signal. Next few weeks are crucial for the Bank Nifty to recover with sharp move or meltdown towards 44K. A daily close above 47700 would trigger a sharp move. The expected range for Bank Nifty is 46700-48700.and a daily close outside the range would require re-evaluation of risk and target.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
USDJPY : Continues to move sideways above the high price range !The USDJPY pair continues to trade quietly and seemingly stagnant at record highs, lacking upward momentum. The prevailing trend favors a sideways movement despite signals from the EMA 34 and 89 continuing to support an upward bias.
From a technical standpoint, any further price increase may encounter strong resistance and remain limited near the 152.00 level. The mentioned barrier will act as a key pivot point, and if decisively broken, it would be considered a new catalyst for bullish traders. With oscillators on the daily chart holding in positive territory, the USD/JPY pair could extend the well-established uptrend since January 2023 and climb further towards the psychological level of 153.00.
On the other hand, the overnight low volatility around the 151.00 level seems to be protecting the immediate downside. Any further decline is likely to attract new buyers and still be limited near the support area of 150.25. Keeping an eye on the psychological level of 150.00, a decisive break below it could potentially accelerate the downward correction process for the USD/JPY pair towards the region of 149.35-149.30 en route to the round number of 149.00.
Bank NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Bank Nifty moved in range of 1162 points Viz. between 45828 & 46990. The Bank Nifty posted a reactive bullish candle with lower lows and lower highs. The Bank Nifty has been underperforming compared to the main Index. The big picture shows that it is moving in an ascending channel with lower support at 44275 and resistance at 49875 with a pivot at 47075. Within the channel there exists a minor a descending channel as well as an ascending channel. The Bank Nifty is truly at cross roads and makes it difficult to decipher which minor trend it actually follows. The oscillators are showing mixed signal. Next few weeks are crucial for the Bank Nifty to recover with sharp move or meltdown towards 44K. A daily close above 47300 would trigger a sharp move. The expected range for Bank Nifty is 45900-48300.and a daily close outside the range would require re-evaluation of risk and target.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
EURUSD flirts with 1.0880-75 key support as Fed week beginsEURUSD remains pressured around 1.0890 early Monday, after posting the first weekly loss in four. In doing so, the Euro pair grinds near the 1.0880-75 support confluence comprising the 100-SMA and a five-week-old rising trend line amid the initial hours of the week comprising the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. It’s worth noting that an impending bull cross on the MACD and a below 30 level of RSI (14) suggest the pre-FOMC consolidation of the quote. However, the corrective bounce appears elusive unless buyers manage to cross a downward-sloping trend line from the monthly high, close to 1.0945 at the latest. Even so, the monthly top surrounding 1.0980 and the 1.1000 threshold will act as the final defense of the sellers.
Meanwhile, a downside break of the 1.0880-75 key support will allow the EURUSD bears to attack the 200-SMA level of 1.0830. Following that, the 1.0790-85 and the 1.0730 levels could test the sellers before directing the prices toward the yearly low marked in February near 1.0695. In a case where the Euro remains bearish past 1.0695, the May 2023 low of 1.0635 and March 2023 bottom surrounding 1.0515 will provide intermediate halts during a likely south-run targeting the previous yearly low of 1.0448.
Overall, the EURUSD pair stays on the bear’s radar even if the oscillators suggest consolidation ahead of the key FOMC.
Bank NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Bank Nifty moved in range of 1543 points Viz. between 47853 & 46310. The Bank Nifty posted a bearish candle with lower lows and lower highs. The Bank Nifty has been underperforming compared to the main Index. The big picture shows that it is moving in an ascending channel with lower support at 44275 and resistance at 49875 with a pivot at 47075. Within the channel there exists a minor a descending channel as well as an ascending channel. The Bank Nifty is truly at cross roads and makes it difficult to decipher which minor trend it actually follows. The oscillators are showing mixed signal. Next few weeks are crucial for the Bank Nifty to recover with sharp move or meltdown towards 44K. The expected range for Bank Nifty is 45800-47300. A daily close outside the broader range indicated above would trigger a sharp move and would require re-evaluation of risk and target.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogAfter 4 consecutive weeks of gains, the Index seems to have hit the wall. In the past week and the previous week it made the high of 22525 and could not cross the hurdle. Bulls attempted good attempts to take it higher. However, the Bears waiting on the sidelines for long loaded with all ammunitions stepped up their attack, this resulted in a sharp fall and the Index ended with a large bearish candle. The balance is tilting towards negative sentiments. The narrower range in the previous two weeks proved to be a sign of exhaustion. Will there be sharp recovery or a continuation of the fall?
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
The index moved in a range of 620 points viz. between 22525 and 21905
The oscillators of different time frames are stretched and showing mixed signals
Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
Volatility and choppy moves likely to continue till the end of this month
Index staying breaching the 22240 with ease is a negative sign and the only saving grace is that 21900-930 seem to provide interim support
Additional interesting observations
Index posted a strongly bearish bullish candle erasing most of the gains made in the past 3 weeks
Index may find supports at 21930, 21820, 21770 and the index could face resistances at, 22130, 22240,,22425
There were multiple gaps created during this dream run. The levels were repeatedly mentioned in the previous blogs. Since they are far away for now, they will be inserted back when relevant
Final Note
The Index has stayed well above 55 DMA at 21876 and the 200 DMA at 20242
The weekly charts suggest that the Index has breached the ascending channel at 22050. The ensuing week will provide confirmation of whether it is a real breach of a false one. If real then the target could be 21200
The notable observation is that the Index has formed a tweezer top at 22525 negating the expected bull story towards 22770. However, the daily charts show interim support one as 21900-930 withstood three consecutive sessions. At the same time we see a death cross on the daily charts making a case for a move towards 21540
Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 22770 & 22350. Breach on either side requires reassessment of risk
The market is expected to remain volatile and witness choppy moves. This requires cautious approach
In the past few years the March month has produced strong moves which are mostly in the direction of the trend. It remains to be seen how the scenario unfolds
As highlighted in the past few weeks the Index has achieved the target of 22450+
Upside potential seems limited until we see a daily close above 22240
Ensuing week is crucial for deciding the future direction and the target
#Stay Safe
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
Gold stays range-bound ahead of US Retail Sales Gold fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off the weekly low as market players await the US Retail Sales for February. In doing so, the spot Gold price, namely the XAUUSD, seesaws within a $48 trading range comprising an ascending resistance line stretched from May 2023 and the previous yearly top. It’s worth noting that the sluggish oscillators and the pre-data anxiety suggest a continuation of the sideways range. However, the bulls appear to have run out of fuel hence sellers are likely to benefit more on a downside break of $2,148 support. In that case, a quick fall toward the $2,100 round figure will be imminent but a 3.5-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding $2,090 could challenge the XAUUSD sellers afterward.
Alternatively, an upside clearance of the aforementioned multi-month-old rising resistance line, close to $2,186 could recall the Gold buyers. However, the $2,200 threshold and 78.6% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s October-December 2023 moves, near $2,240, will challenge the XAUUSD’s upside momentum afterward. Following that, the 100% FE level of $2,313 and the $2,500 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight.
Overall, Gold stays within a long-term bullish trend but the short-term view appears to favor a pullback in prices should the scheduled data allow the US Dollar to defend the first weekly gain in four.
Bank NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Bank Nifty moved in range of 970 points Viz. between 47191 & 48161. The Bank Nifty posted a bullish candle with higher lows and higher highs. The Bank Nifty has been underperforming compared to the main Index. The Bank Nifty is moving in an ascending channel with lower support at 44275 and resistance at 49875 with a pivot at 47075. Within the channel there exists a minor trend which is a descending channel which the Bank Nifty successfully broke. The channel top will at 47300 will act as support for attempt of higher levels. Daily close above 47500-600 zone would help the Index re-test previous highs and also a chance for a new ATH. The oscillators are showing mixed signal. Next few weeks are crucial for the Bank Nifty to recover with sharp move or meltdown towards 44K. The expected range for Bank Nifty is 46600-48600. A daily close outside the broader range indicated above would trigger a sharp move and would require re-evaluation of risk and target.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Index moved in a slightly narrower range in a truncated week. The Index registered gains and made a bullish candle for the fourth consecutive week and achieved another ATH. The sentiment continues to be positive. It remains to be seen whether the narrower range is on account of consolidation phase or a sign of exhaustion. This week is crucial for the further direction and the target.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
The index moved in a range of 301 points viz. between 22224 and 22525
The oscillators of different time frames are stretched and showing mixed signals
Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
Volatility and choppy moves likely to continue for a couple of more weeks
Index staying above 22240 is a positive sign for the scope of attempting higher levels before a correction
Additional interesting observations
Index managed to scale a new ATH and posted a bullish candle
Index may find supports at 22370, 22240, 22120 and the index could face resistances at, 22580, 22670,22770
There were multiple gaps created during this dream run. The levels were repeatedly mentioned in the previous blogs. Since they are far away for now, they will be inserted back when relevant
Final Note
The Index has stayed well above 55 DMA at 21804 and the 200 DMA at 20146
The weekly charts suggest that the Index is moving in an expanding triangle and within the triangle the minor trend is in an ascending channel with the top at 22670 and the support at 21120
Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 22120 & 22680. Breach on either side requires reassessment of risk
There is no reversal signal seen yet and it appears like an extended rally
The market is expected to remain volatile and witness choppy moves. This requires cautious approach
The notable observation is that the Index has formed a tweezer bottom at 21860 there by making a case for a journey towards 22770 followed by 23130. This would be negated if the breaches 21840
In the past few years the March month has produced strong moves which are mostly in the direction of the trend. It remains to be seen how the scenario unfolds
As highlighted in the past few weeks the Index is close to the target of 22450+
Ensuing week is crucial for deciding the future direction and the target
#Stay Safe
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
Bank NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Bank Nifty moved in range of 1772 points Viz. between 45661 & 47433. The Bank Nifty posted a bullish candle with lower lows and higher highs. The Bank Nifty has been underperforming compared to the main Index. The Bank Nifty is moving in an ascending channel with lower support at 44275 and resistance at 49780 with a pivot at 47060. Within the channel there exists a minor trend which is a descending channel with top at 47600 and bottom at 44085. Hence the Bank Nifty is facing a crucial resistance at 47500-600 zone. Break above 47500-600 zone would help the Index re-test previous highs and also a chance for a new ATH. The oscillators are showing mixed signal. A daily close above 47500 required for further upside. Next few weeks are crucial for the Bank Nifty to recover with sharp move or meltdown towards 44K. The expected range for Bank Nifty is 46350-48300. A daily close outside the broader range indicated above would trigger a sharp move and would require re-evaluation of risk and target.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's BlogThe Index witnessed high drama during the week. The Monthly expiry played a vital role in containing the up move and made the bulls surrender for a close below 22K. However, the start of the new month saw a very strong pull back to produce a strongly bullish candle. In the process a new ATH has been made. As The risk perceptions seem to tilt towards a positive bias. This week is crucial for the further direction and the target.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
The index moved in a range of 560 points viz. between 21860 and 22420
The oscillators of different time frames are stretched and showing mixed signals
Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
Volatility and choppy moves likely to continue for a couple of more weeks
The stops above 22240 have been taken out which resulted in a strong upward momentum.
Additional interesting observations
Index managed to scale a new ATH and posted a bullish candle
Index may find supports at 22240, 22130, 22020 and the index could face resistances at, 22470, 22580 & 22670
There were multiple gaps created during this dream run. The levels were repeatedly mentioned in the previous blogs. Since they are far away for now, they will be inserted back when relevant
Final Note
The Index has stayed well above 55 DMA at 21719 and the 200 DMA at 20082
The weekly charts suggest that the Index is moving in an expanding triangle and within the triangle the minor trend is in an ascending channel with the top at 22500 and the support at 21120
The fault lines lies at 20030 at the lower end and 22510 on the higher end.
Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 22030 & 22560. Breach on either side requires reassessment of risk
There is no reversal signal seen yet and it appears like an extended rally
The market is expected to remain volatile and witness choppy moves. This requires cautious approach
The notable observation is that the Index has formed a tweezer bottom at 21860 there by making a case for further gains and new ATH
In the past few years the March month has produced strong moves which are mostly in the direction of the trend. It remains to be seen how the scenario unfolds
As highlighted in the past few weeks the Index is close to the target of 22450+
Ensuing week is crucial for deciding the future course of direction and the target
#Stay Safe
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.