#BEL#CapitalGoods - looks good.# Range Breakout.
# Good volumes.
# EMAs - All up.
# Oscillators - Buy.
Search in ideas for "oscillator"
possible correction in zinc after a strong rally Zinc is now looking overbought on the oscillators, there is a minor resistance here and hence there is every chance that we get some sort of correction from the current levels.
Gold hovers above $1,940 critical support on Fed dayGold again bounces off the 100-DMA after five consecutive attempts to break an important moving average that has been pushing back bears since late May. Adding strength to the said DMA support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late February to May upside, near $1,940. It’s worth noting, however, that the oscillators portray a grim picture for the XAUUSD buyers and the Fed also can surprise markets, amid dovish hopes and softer US inflation. As a result, the probabilities favoring the metal’s fall to $1,914 and the $1,900 round figures are high, a break of which could recall the early March swing high of around $1,858 and the latest February lows of near $1,804 that act as the last defense of the buyers.
On the flip side, another recovery by the Gold price remains elusive unless it breaks the lower-high pattern established since late May. To do so, the bullion needs a daily close beyond the $1,984 mark. Even so, the 50-DMA hurdle of around $1,990 and the $2,000 threshold could play their roles to challenge the XAUUSD bulls. Following that, multiple levels around $2,020 and $2,050 can challenge the metal’s upside momentum before crossing the latest peak of around $2,080.
Overall, Gold buyers appear to run out of steam as the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision looms.
USDCAD bears again place their eyes on six-month-old supportUSDCAD again fails to remain beyond the 200-DMA, suggesting another attempt in breaking an upward-sloping support line from November 2022, close to 1.3320 at the latest. The lower highs in the last two months and downbeat oscillators seem to put the Loonie pair bears in a better position this time. Hence, a break of the key support line appears more likely, which in turn can quickly drag the quote to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-October upside, near 1.3190. However, a 13-month-old ascending trend line, close to 1.3130, may challenge the bears afterward before giving them control.
Meanwhile, the USDCAD pair’s recovery moves may again try to float above the 200-DMA hurdle, around 1.3460 at the latest. In doing so, staying stable above the 1.3500 threshold may become their target before eyeing the falling resistance line from March, around 1.3585. In a case where the bulls manage to remain in the driver’s seat past 1.3585, the previous monthly high surrounding 1.3670 and the late 2022 peak near 1.3705 will be on their radar prior to hitting the yearly top of 1.3860.
Overall, USDCAD is likely to remain pressured and is a strong candidate to challenge the key support lines.
Seen Breakout :: Ugar Sugar can fetch 18-24% in short termABOUT COMPANY:-
Incorporated in 1939, The Ugar Sugar Works Ltd. is engaged in the manufacture and sale of sugar, industrial and potable alcohol, and generation and distribution of electricity.
Primary trend of Ugar Sugar Works has been bullish, as stock is holding above long term moving averages. We have seen also a downward slopping trendline breakout on daily charts. Price breakout is accompanied with rising volumes.
Indicator and oscillators have turned bullish on the daily and weekly charts. Sugar sector has started performing well after healthy correction.
So if anyone wants to go long can go with 102.35 current levels. You can also accumulate if you get 95-100 levels and place a stop loss at 88 and go for target above 120/124+,,minimum 20% returns possible in short term. Please follow strict stop loss.
If anyone likes my work please like, follow and comment your thoughts too.
Thankyou:))
USDJPY rebound appears unimpressive below 133.80USDJPY reverses the early-month losses by keeping the bounce off a nine-week-old ascending support line. That said, the RSI and MACD oscillators also suggest the gradual building of upside momentum. However, a downward sloping resistance line from early March, around 132.65-70, followed by the 200-SMA level of 133.80, appears short-term key hurdles to challenge the Yen pair buyers before giving them control. Following that, an area comprising multiple levels marked in March, around 135.10-25, could test the north run before signaling the run-up towards the yearly high marked the previous month around 137.90.
On the contrary, USDJPY pullback remains elusive until the quote stays beyond a two-month-old ascending support line, close to 130.90 at the latest. Also acting as short-term key support is the 130.00 round figure. It’s worth noting, however, that the Yen pair sellers need validation from the 129.80-60 region before taking control. In that case, the pair can easily challenge the yearly low marked in February at around 128.00.
Overall, USDJPY lures buyers but the upside momentum remains elusive below 133.80.
EURUSD grapples with 1.0930 hurdle ahead of EU, US inflation EURUSD braces for the biggest weekly gains since early January even as it eases from a 2.5-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.0930 ahead of this week’s top-tier data, namely the Eurozone and US inflation clues. That said, a fortnight-long ascending support line joins firmer oscillators to keep Euro pair buyers hopeful of crossing the critical upside barrier holding the key for the quote’s run-up towards challenging the yearly top surrounding 1.1035. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 1.1035, which is less likely considering the RSI (14) line’s nearly overbought conditions, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its November 2022 to March 2023 moves, near 1.1200.
On the contrary, pullback moves need to break the immediate two-week-old support line, close to 1.0840 at the latest, to lure intraday EURUSD sellers. Even so, a convergence of the 50-DMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of November-February upside, near 1.0730, can put a floor under the price. Following that, the 100-DMA, the monthly low and January’s bottom, around 1.0615, 1.0515 and 1.0480 in that order, may act as the last defenses of the pair buyers, a break of which could hand over control to the bears.
Overall, EURUSD is on the bull’s radar and is very much capable of refreshing the yearly top. However, it all depends upon today’s inflation data and hence Euro bulls should wait for the actual data before taking any major positions.
Gold has smoother road towards the northGold teased bears earlier in the week by defying the bullish channel but the follow-on bounce off the $1,934-36 zone renewed buying interest in the yellow metal. However, a clear upside break of $2,000 becomes necessary for the XAUUSD buyers for conviction. Also acting as an upside filter is the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to $2,011 at the latest. Following that, a run-up toward the previous yearly high of around $2,070 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, a one-week-old horizontal support zone near $1,934-36 puts a floor under the Gold price, a break of which could quickly recall the $1,900 threshold on the chart. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and six-week-old horizontal region surrounding $1,890-85 appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Should the bears keep the reins past $1,895, the early-month swing high of near $1,854 can flash on their radars.
Overall, the Gold price may keep grinding higher as promising oscillators join the metal’s hesitance in declining.
Gold at a big support levelGold is at a big support level, and with oscillators being oversold. There is a very good chance that we see a bounce you. Please note this is not investment advice.
Ascending triangle teases GBPUSD bears ahead of UK PMIGBPUSD stays defensive inside a three-month-old ascending triangle, following the previous week’s rebound from the 200-DMA. Even so, downbeat oscillators join lower high formations to keep the sellers hopeful ahead of monthly PMI data from Britain. That said, the stated triangle’s lower line precedes the key moving average to challenge the Cable pair bears around 1.1990 and 1.1935 in that order. Following that, lows marked during January and mid-November 2022, close to 1.1840 and 1.1760 respectively, may challenge the bears. Also acting as short-term key support is last September’s peak surrounding 1.1735, a break of which could give a free hand to the pair sellers.
Alternatively, recovery moves could aim for the three-week-old descending resistance line, near 1.2220, followed by the previous weekly high near 1.2270. In a case where GBPUSD buyers manage to cross the 1.2270 hurdle the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the multiple resistance area around 1.2450 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting that a successful break of the 1.2450 resistance could propel the Cable pair’s advances to May 2022 high near 1.2665.
Overall, GBPUSD remains on the bear’s radar ahead of the key UK data.
AUDUSD sellers need 200-DMA breakdown to keep controlAUDUSD bounces off 50-DMA, following a retreat from the 3.5-month-old previous support line. The recovery moves fail to justify the downbeat oscillators and Aussie data, which in turn keep sellers hopeful. That said, a daily closing below the stated short-term moving average, around 0.6880 by the press time, could convince the Aussie bears. However, the 200-DMA surrounding the 0.6800 threshold becomes crucial support as it lured buyers earlier in January. Should the quote manages to break the 200-DMA, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the previous monthly low near 0.6685 and then towards the late 2022 swing lows around 0.6630 and 0.6580 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, the AUDUSD rebound needs to run a successful show beyond the support-turned-resistance line from November, close to the 0.7000 psychological magnet. Following that, the Aussie buyers may aim for the 0.7050 level before challenging the all-important 0.7135-55 resistance area comprising multiple tops marked since August 2022. It’s worth observing that the pair’s sustained break of 0.7155 won’t hesitate to cross the mid-2022 top surrounding 0.7285 and brace for the previous yearly high near 0.7660.
Overall, AUDUSD is all set to reverse the late 2022 run-up but a clear downside break of 200-DMA becomes necessary.
Long natural gas? Breakout from inside bar on the daily timeframe with the oscillators extremely oversold
USDCAD bulls brace for re-entry ahead of crucial Canada eventsFriday’s US jobs report finally offered the much-needed bounce to the USDCAD pair. However, the Canadian employment numbers and Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech makes the current week all the more important for the Loonie pair traders. Also making the quote interesting is the latest piercing of the 1.3430 resistance confluence, comprising the 13-day-old bearish channel’s top line and 200-EMA. It’s worth noting that the oscillators aren’t quite impressive for the bulls and hence the pair buyers must wait for successful trading beyond the 1.3430 hurdle to retake control. Even so, the January 19 swing high near 1.3520 could probe the upside momentum before directing prices towards the previous monthly top surrounding 1.3685.
Meanwhile, USDCAD pullback remains elusive unless staying beyond 1.3350 support, a break of which could recall bears targeting the late 2022 bottom surrounding 1.3225. During the fall, the stated descending channel’s lower line, close to 1.3250 may act as an intermediate halt. In a case where the Loonie bears dominate past 1.3225, the 1.3000 psychological magnet may act as a buffer during the south-run targeting September 2022 low near 1.2965.
Overall, USDCAD bears are running out of steam as they approach this week’s key data/events.
Gold struggles to stay on bull’s radar, $1,917 is the keyGold buyers appear to run out of steam as traders await the key advance US GDP for Q4 2022, following the five-week uptrend. A one-month-old rising wedge formation joins recently sluggish oscillators to tease the metal sellers. However, a clear downside break of the $1,917 support appears necessary to confirm the bearish chart pattern, which signals a theoretical south-run towards the previous monthly low surrounding $1,767. It’s worth noting that a convergence of the 200-SMA and upward-sloping trend line from late November, close to $1,846, appears an important stop during the anticipated slump between $1,917 and $1,767.
Meanwhile, the stated wedge’s upper line near $1,948 appears immediate hurdle for the Gold buyers to cross to retake control. Following that, a run-up toward the June 2022 peak of around $1,966 becomes imminent while the $2,000 psychological magnet could lure the bulls afterward. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past $2,000, the year 2022 high of $2,070 will be in focus.
Overall, gold is likely slipping off the bull’s radar but the bears have a tough task to take entry.
EURUSD has bumpy road to north even as bulls keep the reinsA two-month-old ascending trend channel backs the EURUSD pair’s upside bias, despite multiple failures to cross the 1.0880 horizontal hurdle in the last week. That said, the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA restrict immediate downside around 1.0790 and 1.0700 respectively. Following that, the stated bullish channel could be at the test and hence the 1.0575 support will gain major attention. Should the quote drops below 1.0575, a slump toward the monthly low near 1.0480 appear imminent while any further downside won’t hesitate to challenge the lows marked during November.
Meanwhile, a successful break of the one-week-old horizontal resistance near 1.0880 isn’t an invitation for the bulls as the top line of the aforementioned channel, close to 1.0910, will act as the last defense of the EURUSD bears. In a case where the pair rises past 1.0910, it could quickly rise to the 1.1000 round figure. It’s worth noting that January 2022 low and the late March 2022 high, respectively around 1.1125 and 1.1185, might probe the pair buyers before giving them full control.
Overall, EURUSD stays inside a bullish chart formation and the oscillators are positive too. However, the upside momentum lacks acceptance and hence buyers should remain cautious.
GBPUSD holds onto bullish bias targeting 1.2450GBPUSD retreats from a one-month-old broad resistance area surrounding 1.2210-40 as the Cable traders brace for the UK data dump on Friday. The quote’s sustained trading beyond the convergence of the 50-SMA and 100-SMA, around 1.2070-65 at the latest, joins upbeat oscillators to keep the pair buyers hopeful of overcoming the key horizontal resistance zone. Following that, the previous monthly high surrounding 1.2450 could lure the bulls. It should be noted, however, that the pair’s successful trading above 1.2450 enables the bulls to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level of the pair’s moves between November 2022 and early January 2023, close to 1.2645.
Meanwhile, GBPUSD sellers will need a clear downside break of the aforementioned SMA confluence, near 1.2070-65, for conviction. In that case, the 1.2000 psychological magnet and the monthly low of 1.1841 should lure the bears. If at all the Cable pair remains bearish past 1.1841, a downward trajectory towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the quote’s November-December 2022 moves, near 1.1800 and 1.1645 respectively, can be expected.
Overall, GBPUSD is likely to remain on the front foot unless the price stays beyond 1.2065 levels.
NIFTY-Weekly Views- Bears back with black beltNifty saw a steep fall thereby making the decline for the third consecutive week. The weekly candle formation is a strongly bearish one. Being a Technical sell-off the momentum was higher and the reversal if it happens also could be sharper if short covering happens. Nifty is still showing signs of weakness ahead of the year end.
A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that
The index moved around 462 points viz. between 17779 and 18473
the oscillators are showing negative bias
Option OI is expected to drive the market direction
The Index made lower highs and lower lows and it ended up with a bearish candle
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
Though closed at 17806, the Index is expected to open higher
As expected the Index moved lower towards the major support at 17860 and with the momentum it breached this support extended the loss to 17779
The final hope lies at 177770 and further breach could lead to weakness towards 17400
Further the weekly closing is near the lows which is supportive of the negative bias.
Going forward the 18250-18420 zone, though far-off for now, is likely to be a major barrier
For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 17770, 17660, 17540 and the index could face resistances at 17960, 18080, 18180 and 18270
Additional interesting observations
In spite of the sharp fall the FIIs and DIIs seem to be net positive (possibly fresh position Building)
Two possible scenarios
Expected range of 17560-18150 or 17770-18360
Any close outside the range of 17560-18360 requires re-assessment of risk
Final Note
A new Gap has been created viz. 18127-17977. There may be an attempt to fill this gap at a time when reversal happens. In this down move we have seen a Gaps (18272-18088 & 18909-17786) which were created during the up move got filled
It so happens that when a long term trend line is breached and the prices reach a new peak, there would be profit booking which brings down the price as close to the break-out levels. We are currently in this scenario and we as expected the move dragged the NIFTY well past expected 17960
The lows of 17779 match with the Fib projection of third wave of the down move starting from 18887 to 18415 and then up move to 18700
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1108 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035
Index at 18800, the markets were looking for 19500 and at 17800 markets may talk about 16500
We are in to a tuff situation and the sentiments are negative. Till we see a daily close above 18170 there would be selling pressure on every spike and there exists a risk of deeper correction towards 16500 if weekly close is below 17500
This week will be crucial to see whether we finally end up in a bear cycle towards 16500
There are higher possibilities of churning of portfolio
Seasons Greetings and Best wishes for a Happy New Year 2023
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
Bank Nifty-- Weekly ViewsThe sell-off in Bank Nifty continued for the second week with a stronger momentum resulting in the Index testing a low of 41600. Technically the break below 43100 triggered the down move. Break below 42200 is still a sign of bearishness. We see the Index continuing to move in a channel with top at 44600 and lower end at 41800 with a pivot at 43100. The weekly candle coupled with the Oscillators paint a negative picture. There may be hurdles at 42900-43100 range. This week is crucial to see whether the Bank Nifty breaks the crucial channel support at 41700-41800 zone or holds. The scenario for now is negative till we see a close able 43K. It appears that the Bank Nifty is likely to continue in a wider range of 41700-44200 with 43100 as pivot and a breach and close above or below could see the next range of 900 points. For now, 41700 is the crucial level to be watched. And break on a closing basis would mean there is deeper correction ahead towards 40685 and then to 39800. A daily close outside the broader range indicated above would require re-evaluation.
Note: Tough times ahead as we see a bit of slow-down in the pace of advancement and a tuff barrier seen around 42900-43100 range. Need to exercise caution. PSU banks may provide opportunities for Fresh entry levels on a deeper correction.
Seasons Greetings and Best wishes for a Happy New Year 2023
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
USDJPY prints bear flag as Bank of Japan gains attentionUSDJPY is likely to end 2022 on a negative note, despite bracing for the biggest yearly run-up since 2013. However, the Yen pair portrays a bearish chart pattern, a bear flag on the four-hour play as traders keep their eyes on the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Given the downbeat oscillators and hawkish expectations from the BOJ, the bearish chart formation amplifies the downside expectations. As a result, bears could wait for a clear downside break of 134.90, to refresh the monthly low of 133.60. In that case, the August 2020 low near 130.40 and the 130.00 psychological magnet will gain major attention during the south run aiming for the theoretical target surrounding 120.00.
Meanwhile, the top line of the stated bear channel, close to 138.50, restricts short-term USDJPY recovery moves. A clear upside break of the same will defy the bearish chart pattern and could poke the 200-SMA surrounding 140.80. In a case where the Yen pair buyers manage to cross the last hurdle, namely the 200-SMA, late November swing high near 142.25 and the 145.20 resistance could flash on their radars.
Overall, USDJPY is on the bear’s radar after two years of a bullish move.
#Markets a head! #Nifty 50 #Bearish mat hold patternMounting recession worries amid aggressive policy tightening by major central banks lead to a global recession risk next year. Market discounting the risk and have fallen over 3% from its 52% high.
Week ahead
It will be a busy week in the US with the most important releases including the PCE price index, personal income and spending, CB, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment and durable goods orders. Elsewhere, Japan and Canada will release inflation data and the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting. Also, investors will follow German’s Ifo Business Climate, and consumer confidence readings from Euro Area and UK, and Germany.
Technically
Support levels will be 18220/18043/17860, worse case will be 17680
Resistance levels will be 18516/18800/19042
Option chain
Put OI: 18000 have maximum Put OI of 5.4Mn which is likely to give additional support to nifty
Call OI: While, 8.7Mn Call OI at 18600 will resist the market.
Oscillators
RSI: 26.384 (Suggest bearishness)
MACD(12,26) : -70 (Suggest sell)
ADX(14): 65.780 (Suggest sell)
ATR(14): 60.9967 (Highly volatile)
#Markets a head!US Markets
The Dow Jones closed 150 points on Friday as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy. US 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to a 7-week low of 3.6595%, after meeting minutes released the Federal Reserve's meeting showed a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes
Week Ahead
In the US, the labor report will take the central stage followed by speeches by several Fed officials, 2nd estimate of GDP growth, ISM manufacturing PMI, CB consumer confidence, and personal income and spending.
European Markets
The accounts of the central bank's October policy meeting showed, European Central Bank policymakers agreed that the central bank should continue normalizing and tightening monetary policy to combat high inflation. The Euro jumped to $1.04 after FOMC minutes suggested the Fed will soon start slowing the pace of rate increases.
Week Ahead
Investor to brace the Inflation numbers for Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, Spain.
Indian Markets
After a consolidation in the previous week, the Indian market followed its global counterparts and resumed its uptrend and ended 1 percent higher in the previous week.
Week ahead
The focus will shift to domestic cues as monthly auto sales numbers and second quarter GDP data will likely to keep the Investor busy.
Technically
Nifty to face the resistance at the all-time high levels 18664 sustaining above can take the markets to 18880 while 18080 to act as a strong support. On the oscillators the data is positive with RSI at 71.6, MACD at 51.6.
Derivative data suggest 18500 with 32Mn call OI and 27Mn Put OI to act as a critical zone to break followed by 18300 to act as a critical support zone with 144K Put OI added on Friday session.
#Nifty Market outlook Market outlook (7th Nov to 11th Nov)
US market closed the 1% up following a volatile session on Friday after mixed jobs report. Fed Collins hinted that the pace of future increases could be smaller but did not rule out another 75 bps hike in December.
US Market Ahead: Inflation data will be closely watched by the investors followed by several speeches by the Fed officials and midterm elections
European Markets: The euro edged up toward $0.99, as investors expects pivot despite Powell’s hawkish tone. Elsewhere, the ECB is set to tighten monetary policy further as inflation persists at higher level than expected.
European markets ahead: Investors will brace the UK Q3 GDP growth rate, Eurogroup meeting, retail sales & S&P global construction PMI for the Area
Indian markets edged higher despite Fed's guidance on future rate hikes supported by metals after China’s statement of planning its transition away from its zero-Covid policy. In addition, India’s Manufacturing PMI edged above expectation to 55.3 in October 2022.
Indian markets ahead: Markets likely to open on positive sentiment amid better-than-expected results of India’s largest bank- SBI that reported 74% increase in Net profit on YoY basis. In absence of Domestic cues, market to act on Global Indicators and Q2 earnings
Technically
Nifty showing positive momentum on oscillators with closing above at breakout of cup & holder formation 18390/ 18592 to act as a resistance zone while resistance will remain 18080 followed by the derivate support level of 18000 where 8.6Mn put writers will be supporting the Index.
Ultratech CementThe Infra sector has been in the limelight and is seen outperforming broader markets. Nifty Infra index is at the cusp of breaking above last one year range. Within the Infra space we
expect the cement stocks to witness catch up activity, among the large cap cement stocks our preferred pick is Ultratech cement which we expect to outperform
The stock has generated a breakout above the falling supply line joining highs signalling resumption of the up move and offers fresh entry opportunity
The base of the recent consolidation is placed at the 50 days EMA currently placed at | 6385 highlighting positive price structure
We expect the stock to head towards | 7290 levels in the coming weeks being the 123.6% external retracement of the September 2022 decline (7029- 6005)
Among oscillators daily MACD has generated a buy signal and is moving above zero line thus validates positive bias
CMP 6728.25 BuyRange 6722-6730Target 6782/6844 Stop Loss 6664.00
