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CYCLICAL NATURE OF MARKETS: A TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF NIFTYEvery stock or index moves as per laws of vibration or like a sinusoidal wave which is clearly seen on any oscillator like RSI or stochastic. The drop of NIFTY started in Oct 21 which can be easily seen RSI monthly chart, the move down happens like a ball bounce where first bounce came at Dec 21 which was evident on daily RSI levels between 40 and 30, the bounce rose till Jan 22 and like wise the drop and bounce can be seen till date. The down trend on monthly chart is evident and can be captured easily if the drop and bounce concept is understood. The bounces are erratic and brings in counter trends. Most lose money in capturing the counter trend. If one has to analyse the current situation market though in downtrend is preparing itself for a bounce. The basing on weekly charts is visible both on price and RSI. The basing structure which has to emerge is of double bottom or W on lower TF charts. How far is going to be bounce? With every successive bounce the energy of stock gets dissipated and bounce levels should reduce as per laws of vibrations. The Feb bounce was of 900 points, March bounce was of 500 points. Once the price reach the pivot or previous base it should temporarily act as a spring base to infuse some energy in the bounce before the final drop takes place. So likely bounce is expected to be of thousand points forming a price pattern of head and shoulders. The evolution of price patterns can be correlated with vibration and ball bounce which can further be traced to human psychology. Why select price patterns are formed and repeated can be easily be forecasted, which was a major study of WD Gann. If one can build on his writings and study charts diligently one can easily crack the code. The so called irrationality of markets is not that wayward as it is assumed. If one can get in sync with the vibration and rhyme with the markets the world will be yours. The entire move Oct 21 onwards can be encapsulated in a box and it is seen that there should be at least two touch bases before the price moves out of the box. I think Nicholas Darvas also betted on these boxes. Sometimes based on other extraneous factors price may come only half way and doesn't touch the base and moves up. Till the price is in the box its either in accumulation or distribution mode. If the price moves downward of the box one can say we are in recession and more pain is awaited. If it remains in consolidation for longer time with 2 or 3 touch base an explosive up move is contemplated. I feel that this consolidation should last till this year end unless there are some good geo political economic triggers. If 15200 levels are violated then it will be mayhem as seen during COVID times. But all these violations are good buying opportunities. Every touch base is a buying or accumulating opportunity. The whole aim is to get the time and price cycle correct. One concentrates more on price cycle than on time cycle. One should go the dictum To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: A time to be born, a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted; A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up; A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance; A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing; A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away; A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak; A time to love, and a time to hate; A time of war, and a time of peace.
NSE:NIFTY
by upendravisal
14
ABFRL's Harmonic Patterns and Potential TargetsHarmonic Patterns: Cypher and Anti Butterfly Upon examining the chart, we observe the presence of two harmonic patterns: Cypher and Anti Butterfly. Harmonic patterns are geometric formations that indicate potential trend reversals. Traders often employ these patterns to identify favorable entry and exit points in the market. Support on RSI: In addition to the harmonic patterns, we notice a good support level on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), as indicated in the attached chart. The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the strength and speed of price movements. A support level on the RSI suggests a potential buying opportunity. Price Analysis and Targets: At the time of analysis, ABFRL's current price is 196. Based on the identified harmonic patterns and support on the RSI, we can establish potential price targets. The first target is set at 211, indicating a potential upward movement, while the second target stands at 226. These targets serve as reference points for traders to gauge the potential profit levels. ABFRL's Brands and Financial Performance: Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited (ABFRL) is a well-known player in the Indian fashion and retail industry. The company boasts a diverse portfolio of brands, including Allen Solly, Pantaloons, Van Heusen, Peter England, and many more. Each brand caters to a distinct segment of consumers, making ABFRL a significant player in the market. Conclusion: In conclusion, analyzing the weekly chart of ABFRL, we have identified the presence of harmonic patterns (Cypher and Anti Butterfly) and observed a support level on the RSI. These factors, along with the current price of 196, suggest potential price targets of 211 and 226. It is important for traders to exercise their due diligence, consider market conditions, and review the stock accordingly. Remember to set a stop loss at 178 to manage risk effectively. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is based on historical price data and technical analysis. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risks, and it is essential to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author are not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on the information provided herein.
NSE:ABFRLLong
by yaashul
1
KERNEX's Chart: Support and Potential UpsideIn this analysis, we will explore the chart of KERNEX, focusing on the support on a daily basis and the stock's potential for a bullish move. Additionally, we will examine key fundamental data of the company. By considering these technical and fundamental aspects, we aim to provide insights into the stock's current situation and a potential trading opportunity. Let's proceed with the analysis. Chart Analysis: Upon reviewing the provided TradingView chart for KERNEX, we can identify several key technical factors that may impact the stock's future price action. Support on Daily Basis: The chart indicates that KERNEX is taking support on a daily basis, implying that buyers are stepping in to prevent further declines. This support level could act as a base for a potential price reversal to the upside. RSI Support: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is providing support on a daily basis, indicating that the stock's momentum is stabilizing. RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. A strong RSI support suggests that selling pressure may be easing and could potentially lead to a rebound in prices. Fundamental Overview: KERNEX manufactures, installs, and maintains anti-collision devices and also conceptualizes, designs, and develops railway safety and signal systems. However, it is essential to note that the company's fundamental data shows a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of -24.2, indicating a negative PE due to losses. The Return on Equity (ROE) is -30.4%, reflecting negative earnings generated from shareholders' equity. The market capitalization of KERNEX is ₹480 Cr. Trading Opportunity and Targets: Based on the analysis, a potential buying opportunity arises with KERNEX's support on a daily basis and the positive RSI support. Traders may consider initiating a long position at the current market price (CMP) of 312, with a stop loss set at 288 to manage potential risks. In terms of the target, the potential rebound from the support levels and RSI stabilization suggest the potential for further upside movement. A target of 360 can be considered, taking into account the stock's current momentum and the support on the daily chart. Conclusion: Based on the technical analysis, KERNEX's chart indicates support on a daily basis and RSI support, which may suggest a potential bullish move. However, it is essential to consider the negative fundamental data, including negative PE and ROE, indicating financial challenges faced by the company. Traders and investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance and consider implementing appropriate risk management strategies. As always, it is advisable to consult with a financial advisor or conduct further research before making any financial decisions. Disclaimer: The information provided in this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading stocks involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is advisable to consult with a financial advisor or conduct further research before making any financial decisions.
BSE:KERNEXLong
by yaashul
PASUPTAC's Chart: Breakout, Retest, Momentum, and DivergenceIn this analysis, we will explore the chart of PASUPTAC, focusing on the breakout of a falling trendline, completion of a retest, gaining momentum, and the breakout of the 100 EMA (Exponential Moving Average). Additionally, we will consider the completion of a divergence on the weekly chart. It's important to note that PASUPTAC is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of just 269.2 Crore. With that in mind, let's proceed with the analysis. Chart Analysis: Upon reviewing the provided TradingView chart for PASUPTAC, we can observe several key technical factors that may influence the stock's future price action. These include the breakout of a falling trendline, completion of a retest, gaining momentum, the breakout of the 100 EMA, and the completion of a divergence on the weekly chart. Breakout of Falling Trendline and Retest: The chart indicates that PASUPTAC has experienced a breakout of a falling trendline, which suggests a potential shift in the stock's trend from bearish to bullish. The subsequent completion of a retest after the breakout further validates the breakout's strength. A successful retest indicates that the previous resistance has now turned into support, potentially supporting further upward movement. Gaining Momentum and Breakout of 100 EMA: Additionally, the stock is gaining momentum again after the breakout and retest, indicating increasing buying interest. Furthermore, PASUPTAC has also experienced a breakout of the 100 EMA, which is a significant technical milestone. The breakout of a major moving average like the 100 EMA suggests a potential shift in the stock's overall trend and could attract further buying interest. Completion of Divergence on Weekly Chart: The analysis reveals that there was a divergence on the weekly chart's RSI (Relative Strength Index), which now seems to be completed. Divergence occurs when the price and an oscillator like the RSI move in opposite directions. The completion of the divergence suggests a potential reversal or continuation of the stock's current trend. Buy Setup and Targets: Based on the analysis, a potential buying opportunity arises at the current CMP (Current Market Price). Traders may consider initiating a long position with a stop loss set at 28, which helps limit potential losses if the anticipated upward movement does not materialize. In terms of target levels, a target of 37 can be considered. However, it is important to monitor the price action and adjust the profit-taking strategy based on individual risk appetite and trading plan. Considerations for Small-Cap Stock: It's important to note that PASUPTAC is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of just 269.2 Crore. Small-cap stocks tend to be more volatile and have lower liquidity compared to large-cap stocks. Therefore, traders should exercise caution and be mindful of the risks associated with trading small-cap stocks. Conclusion: Based on the technical analysis, PASUPTAC's chart indicates a breakout of a falling trendline, completion of a retest, gaining momentum, and a breakout of the 100 EMA. Furthermore, the completion of a divergence on the weekly chart adds weight to the potential upward movement. However, as a small-cap stock, traders should consider the associated risks and exercise caution when trading PASUPTAC. Traders should carefully assess their risk tolerance and consider implementing appropriate risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss levels. It is essential to closely monitor price action and any changes in the technical landscape to make informed trading decisions. Disclaimer: The information provided in this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading stocks involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is advisable to consult with a financial advisor or conduct further research before making any financial decisions.
NSE:PASUPTACLong
by yaashul
Union Bank of India: Watch before you leap.📊 Technical Analysis Report: BSE:UNIONBANK 📅 Date: September 11, 2023 🕣 Time: 08:28 AM 📌 Introduction The following report provides a 📈 technical analysis for Union Bank of India as of September 11, 2023. The stock 🛑 closed at 88.10 on the last 🗓 trading day (Friday). 📊 Key Metrics: 🔒 Last Close Price: 88.10 50 -Day Moving Average: 📉 Under selling pressure 🔄 Asset Turnover Ratio: 📉 Low 📊 Return on Equity (ROE): 1️⃣3️⃣-1️⃣4️⃣% 💵 Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 5️⃣-6️⃣ 📈 Technical Indicators: 📊 MACD (12,26,9): 🕒 Yet to show crossover, expected in a day or two 📈 Stochastics RSI: K: 3️⃣1️⃣.1️⃣2️⃣ D: 2️⃣9️⃣.4️⃣7️⃣ 📉 Percent R: -6️⃣3️⃣.4️⃣8️⃣ 📈 Fisher 9: Trigger: 0️⃣.6️⃣6️⃣ Fisher: 0️⃣.2️⃣5️⃣ 🎯 Entry, Target and Stop-Loss Levels 🔥 For Aggressive Traders 🎯 Entry Price: 9️⃣0️⃣.8️⃣5️⃣ (0.5 Fibonacci Levels) 🏁 Target Price 1: 9️⃣2️⃣.4️⃣0️⃣ 🏁 Target Price 2: 9️⃣4️⃣.3️⃣0️⃣ 🛑 Stop Loss: 8️⃣8️⃣.1️⃣0️⃣ 🐢 For Conservative Traders 🎯 Entry Price: 9️⃣2️⃣.2️⃣5️⃣ (0.618 Fibonacci Levels) 📝 Conclusion: While 📘 fundamental aspects like ROE and asset turnover are not too promising, the low P/E ratio indicates a potential 💰 cheap entry point . 🔥 Aggressive traders can consider an entry at 90.85 targeting 92.40 and 94.30, with a stop loss at 88.10. 🐢 Conservative traders can enter at 92.25. ⚠️ Disclaimer 📝 This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as 💰 financial advice. Investors are advised to perform their own due diligence 🕵️‍♀️ before making any investment decisions. 🏷️ Hashtags #️⃣UnionBankofIndia #️⃣TechnicalAnalysis #️⃣StockMarket #️⃣Trading #️⃣Finance
NSE:UNIONBANK
by finogent
3
IPCA Labs Technical Outlook: Aiming for New Heights?NSE:IPCALAB , trading close to its 52-week high, ended the last session at INR 935.65, marking a 1.27% uptick . The stock currently sports a P/E ratio of 4.73 and a basic EPS of 19.36 with an average volume of 713.623K. The closing signal, as indicated by the Parabolic SAR, leans bullish. In light of the positive volume build-up observed over the past four sessions and the affirmative indicators, IPCA Labs shows promise in the upcoming week, given supportive market conditions. Entry Logic 🎯: If IPCA Labs opens above the critical Fibonacci level of 0.786 at INR 938.50 on the next trading day, it could pave the way toward an all-time high of around INR 955. The encouraging MACD crossover and the green histogram at 1.05 underscore this bullish sentiment. Target Levels 🎯: Target 1: INR 955 This target is derived from the potential continuation of the bullish trend, assuming no unfavorable market developments. Exit Logic 🚪: An exit strategy should be devised if adverse market conditions arise or if the stock shows reversal signs before hitting the target. Stop Loss ⚠️: A stop loss at INR 915.50 is advised to curtail potential downside, ensuring a controlled risk approach. Technical Indicators 📊: MACD: Bullish crossover coupled with a green histogram at 1.05. Stochastic RSI: With K at 67.44 and D at 48.76, indicating an uptrend without being overbought. %R: Indicates a favorable uptrend. Fisher 9: Positive crossover observed, enhancing the bullish outlook. Market Sentiment 🌐: IPCA Labs exhibits a bullish setup, with the potential to achieve a new all-time high. However, this scenario heavily relies on the broader market's support, as the stock already trades at elevated levels. Any market correction can temporarily impede the upward trajectory. Recommendation 📝: An entry post a strong opening above INR 938.50, targeting INR 955, with a stop loss at INR 915.50, can be a plausible strategy for traders aiming to capitalize on IPCA Labs' momentum. Disclosures and Disclaimers 📢: This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Investors are advised to conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The report is based on historical data and prevailing market conditions; hence, the future may unfold differently.
NSE:IPCALABLong
by finogent
NYKAA looks good!Why NYKAA Looks Good? In the recent price action, we have observed a notable bullish trend as the price has surpassed the level it was trading at 10 bars ago. This upward momentum indicates a positive market sentiment and suggests the potential for further price increases. Furthermore, we have also noticed a significant development in the price crossing above the 21-day moving average. This event suggests a shift in the market dynamics, as the price has moved beyond a key indicator of the average price over the past 21 day. This breakout above the moving average indicates a potential reversal from a previous downtrend to a new uptrend. Additionally, prior to this breakout, the price appeared to have undergone a period of accumulation near the bottom of the major downtrend. This accumulation phase typically signifies a consolidation or gathering of buying interest, potentially indicating a market bottom. The subsequent breakthrough of resistance further strengthens the case for a reversal in the overall market direction. In summary, the recent price action and the breakout above the 21-day moving average point towards a shift from a bearish trend to a bullish trend. The market seems to have concluded a phase of accumulation and is now signaling a new uptrend. Note for everyone who came across this reference: This chart analysis is only for reference purpose. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
NSE:NYKAA
by hardeepssethi