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CYCLICAL NATURE OF MARKETS: A TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF NIFTYEvery stock or index moves as per laws of vibration or like a sinusoidal wave which is clearly seen on any oscillator like RSI or stochastic. The drop of NIFTY started in Oct 21 which can be easily seen RSI monthly chart, the move down happens like a ball bounce where first bounce came at Dec 21 which was evident on daily RSI levels between 40 and 30, the bounce rose till Jan 22 and like wise the drop and bounce can be seen till date. The down trend on monthly chart is evident and can be captured easily if the drop and bounce concept is understood. The bounces are erratic and brings in counter trends. Most lose money in capturing the counter trend. If one has to analyse the current situation market though in downtrend is preparing itself for a bounce. The basing on weekly charts is visible both on price and RSI. The basing structure which has to emerge is of double bottom or W on lower TF charts. How far is going to be bounce? With every successive bounce the energy of stock gets dissipated and bounce levels should reduce as per laws of vibrations. The Feb bounce was of 900 points, March bounce was of 500 points. Once the price reach the pivot or previous base it should temporarily act as a spring base to infuse some energy in the bounce before the final drop takes place. So likely bounce is expected to be of thousand points forming a price pattern of head and shoulders. The evolution of price patterns can be correlated with vibration and ball bounce which can further be traced to human psychology. Why select price patterns are formed and repeated can be easily be forecasted, which was a major study of WD Gann. If one can build on his writings and study charts diligently one can easily crack the code. The so called irrationality of markets is not that wayward as it is assumed. If one can get in sync with the vibration and rhyme with the markets the world will be yours. The entire move Oct 21 onwards can be encapsulated in a box and it is seen that there should be at least two touch bases before the price moves out of the box. I think Nicholas Darvas also betted on these boxes. Sometimes based on other extraneous factors price may come only half way and doesn't touch the base and moves up. Till the price is in the box its either in accumulation or distribution mode. If the price moves downward of the box one can say we are in recession and more pain is awaited. If it remains in consolidation for longer time with 2 or 3 touch base an explosive up move is contemplated. I feel that this consolidation should last till this year end unless there are some good geo political economic triggers. If 15200 levels are violated then it will be mayhem as seen during COVID times. But all these violations are good buying opportunities. Every touch base is a buying or accumulating opportunity. The whole aim is to get the time and price cycle correct. One concentrates more on price cycle than on time cycle. One should go the dictum To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: A time to be born, a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted; A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up; A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance; A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing; A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away; A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak; A time to love, and a time to hate; A time of war, and a time of peace.
NSE:NIFTY
by upendravisal
14
Oct22-W4: Diwali means less candles? (Oct24 to Oct28)What I said last week was that I was clueless about Nifty’s direction. Nifty though did not have that problem. It moved up steadily. Now the following is my analysis for coming week: There is no analysis. It is Diwali and this is going to be a 3-day + 1-hour week. Not much can happen during such a short and weird timeframe. My worry is that the muhurat trading session, as always, will destroy my indicators - especially the stochastic. If the candle of October 24 makes lengthy wicks, it will create all the more problem. So, I am going to ignore everything that happens this week and enjoy time with family. I will get curious about Nifty if it drops below 17400. Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)… Consolidation - Between 18000 and 17375 Uptrend - If breach above 18000; to rise somewhere till 18400 Downtrend - If breach below 17375; to drop somewhere till 16850 Let it be a ‘green’ Diwali DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.
NSE:NIFTY
by wwannabebull
Bitcoin [Daily]2 possible scenarios with Bitcoin . It will either bounce from Zone 1 or further fall to Zone 2 which is a stronger Demand Zone. Also the sharply falling StocRSI suggests it could likely fall to Demand Zone 2. Unless we see a strong reversal on the 4hr and 2hr TFs this trend will likely not change! == I swear by the StochasticRSI. It's probably one of the best tools that show trend reversals before any major dip. More on how to read this in time! Happy Trading!
by sandeepbalachandran
CosmoFilms-Harder I fall, Higher I Bounce :)-LongAlthough not steep but a steady increase in Revenues and a good improvement on the Operational and Net profit over the last 5 years, Cosmo films stood as a strong contender in the metallized film market. Thats the overview fundamentally. Now Technically, the volumes and delivery percentage have been healthy ever since its fall in March. Momentum high and with almost no debt on its balance sheet and with great management combined with the demand for its products, the stock price may see some steep rise. MACD positive and ADX trending, Stochastic% Bullish. With SMAs for 200, 100, 50, 20 and 5 days in ascending order, Cosmo is looking like cheetah on the run to make the kill. May go up another 30% in two months. Note: views are for educational purposes only.
CLong
by kalyanbharathp
4