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XAUUSD 18/9/2024 gold price has ended the correction?
Looking at H1, we have a sharp and fast-moving wave 3, followed by a corrective wave 4
- According to the Elliot wave principle, wave 2 is simple, wave 4 is complex and takes more time, so we are in wave 4.
- I temporarily label the small waves in wave 4 so that we can predict the end of wave 4
- Currently, looking at the price target of wave 4, we have the price range of 2565 - 2562 and the second target price range is the range of 2451 - 2448
- Looking at the structure of wave 4, we have a complex structure consisting of a Flat wave combined with a zigzag structure WXY. Looking at the wave 4 structure, we see that the correction structure may be sufficient and we expect the price to continue to increase according to wave 5
- The correction process of wave 4 is confirmed to be completed when the price breaks out through the 2590.188 zone, then we have the target zones of wave 5 above, which are the 2600 - 2603 zone and the 2616 - 2619 zone
Our trading plan
BUY ZONE: 2565 - 2562
SL: 2555
TP1: 2579
TP2: 2590
TP3: 2600
BUY ZONE: 2451 - 2448
SL: 2441
TP1: 2561
TP2: 2579
TP3: 2590
SELL ZONE: 2600 - 2603
SL: 2700
TP1: 2590
TP2: 2579
TP3: 2565
SELL ZONE: 2616 - 2619
SL: 2716
TP1: 2600
TP2: 2590
TP3: 2579
XAUUSD Reaction zones 12/09/2024XAUUSD Reaction zones 12/09/2024
Reversal zones for XAUUSD are identified based on line bias evaluation and criteria from the table for entering and exiting trades. The ZigZag indicator marks highs and lows, while the naked chart indicator is used to draw cleaner lines and reduce clutter.
The Chartist
SilverM in ZigZag Correction Silvermini 4-Hour Chart Analysis:
The Silvermini chart is currently showing the completion of a classic 5-wave impulsive pattern. We are now entering a 3-wave corrective phase. The internal wave structure of the first corrective wave is forming a 5-wave pattern, indicating that after a brief 3-wave bounce, another 5-wave structure is likely to emerge, completing a Zig Zag correction.
By the time this 3-wave corrective move is complete, we should be around the 38%-50% retracement level of the impulsive wave that started from 80,762 and peaked at 88,788, marking the end of wave 1 in red. We are now in wave 2 (red), and once this wave concludes, we could see the beginning of wave 3 (red), which has the potential to be a significant move, targeting levels around 93,500.
On the flip side, if the price breaks below 83,350, it would suggest a deeper correction is underway, and it would be wise to unwind long positions initiated around the 84,881 zone.
Disclaimer: We are not SEBI-registered advisors. This content is intended for educational purposes only.
#Nifty Directions and Levels for August Last Week.Nifty and Bank Nifty Directions and Levels for August Last Week.
Global Market Overview
In the previous week, global markets experienced a long consolidation. By the end of the week, they closed with a solid green candle (based on the Dow Jones). Structurally, this indicates a positive bias; however, some events are on the horizon. If this support holds, our market will also take a bullish cue.
Nifty
Despite the market closing positively, there was significant consolidation. Structurally, it is a bullish market, so the upcoming session may see a slight increase. After that, if it encounters resistance around the minor supply zone or the all-time high, it may retrace by a maximum of 23% to 38%. Structurally, it shouldn't break this level. Once it finds support at this level, the rally will likely continue to the level of 25,232, which is our first variation.
Alternate Variation:
The alternate variation also resembles the current view, but there is a small difference that I will explain:
- If the upcoming session takes a negative bias, it could result in a correction of 23% to 38% in the minor swing. After that, if it finds support, it may continue the rally, which looks similar to what I see in the current view.
- However, if the correction breaks below the 38% Fibonacci level, it may turn into a correction phase. Why? Because the market is currently consolidating around the 78% Fibonacci level. This is a major resistance level for a ranging market as well as for a zigzag correction (Elliott Wave pattern). Once the market starts to correct from there, it may reach a minimum of 78% in the swing low for the minor swing. This is why I mentioned that.
Apollo Hospital - Low Risk High Reward Potential !Apollo Hospital is currently in the major 5th wave of the bull cycle, as illustrated on the chart. It appears that wave 4 took the form of a zigzag pattern, resulting in a deeper correction to 61.8%. Typically, wave 4 corrects to levels between 23-38%, but due to the shallow nature of wave 2, we can anticipate a more profound wave 4 in accordance with the principle of alternation. This suggests that we are currently in the 5th wave, and the focus now shifts to determining our position within this wave. Based on the chart markings, it is possible that we are approaching the final phase of the 5th wave.
Furthermore, analyzing the price action reveals a retest of the breakout levels from November 2021, accompanied by a morning star formation on the weekly chart. This indicates a potentially favorable trajectory for Apollo Hospitals, with a minimum target range of 6800-6900 and a secondary target of 8438. The current levels present an attractive risk-reward ratio for entry, with a suggested stop loss around 5600 levels. Additionally, employing the pyramiding technique to gradually build our position could be beneficial. I will provide updates on the next entry levels as the market moves in our favor
Disclaimer: Please note that the information presented in this analysis is intended for educational purposes only. It is highly recommended to seek advice from a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I cannot be held accountable for any financial losses that may arise
Nifty prediction for 26th June based on Elliott WaveNifty should retest around 23700 zigzag fashion then must go towards 23787 and must get rejection
From the da high in the morning (must be new LTH too) in the form of ABC zig zag it must move down, how much can be said but it it comes around 23630 area then it will get some really good support to bounce back as there is long time support channel line.
Then from the low of ABC around 200-250 points of rally might come to first cross 23800 and then go near 23900.
So basically wave 4,5 and ABC in green and then 12345 in blue might be the moves for nifty tomorrow.
Please note in any case from low of C not more than 280 points will come and at least it will have to cross wave 5 high. This last leg will be again of 12345 pattern as shown in the diagram.
where there can be multiple small timeframe inner waves but total run limit will be as mentioned.
** Numbers mentioned are predictions and waves can be formed without exactly touching the numbers but if I have understood the waves well then most likely this must be the pattern tomorrow.
* It is not a trade advise but technical analysis shared based on my understanding of patterns and personal experiences, please take any trade at your own risk.
** The waves must be seen on 1 minute chart which I can't use to publish - minimum 15 min chart is allowed.
#Banknifty directions and levels for June 26th.Bank Nifty had a long rally, so if the market opens neutral to slightly gap-down, then structurally, it could also take a maximum 23 to 38% correction. After that, if it finds support around 38%, we can expect minor consolidation for the rally continuation.
The alternative scenario differs a bit from Nifty. Bank Nifty has extended more compared to Nifty, so structurally, there is no possibility of a big correction, meaning the flat correction might not occur here. Conversely, if it breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, the zigzag variation may extend here, and that correction may reach a maximum of 61%.
(Note: If the initial market takes a pullback and breaks the previous high, then the rally may continue further. However, the momentum could be less, so we can't expect a big rally. If we want a big rally, it would require a solid candle breakout or a minor consolidation around the immediate resistance level.)
EURUSDEUR/USD 4-Hour Analysis: Potential Bearish Continuation
Chart Overview:
This EUR/USD 4-hour chart analysis indicates a potential bearish continuation following a recent break of significant support levels and trend lines.
Key Points:
1. Resistance and Support Levels:
- Resistance: A strong resistance level is identified around 1.08520, highlighted with a red shaded area, where price has previously reversed.
- Support: The 0.61% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.08012 serves as a crucial support level.
2. Trend Analysis:
- The pair initially showed an upward trend, but recent price action has broken below a key ascending trend line, indicating a shift to bearish momentum.
3. Fibonacci Retracement:
- The 0.61% Fibonacci level (1.08012) is marked as a significant retracement point. This level is often watched by traders for potential reversal or continuation.
4. Price Projection:
- The expected price path is a retracement back to the 0.61% Fibonacci level before continuing the downward movement. This is illustrated by the projected zigzag pattern.
5. Risk/Reward Setup:
- The analysis includes a potential short trade setup with the green shaded area representing the target zone and the red shaded area indicating the stop-loss zone. This setup suggests a favorable risk/reward ratio.
6. Market Sentiment:
- Overall sentiment is bearish, with the price action showing strong downward momentum after breaking the support and trend line.
Trading Plan:
- Look for shorting opportunities at the resistance zone around 1.08012.
- Place stop-losses just above the red shaded area to manage risk.
- Target the support zones below the current price action for potential take-profits.
This analysis suggests caution and patience for traders, waiting for the price to reach key levels before entering trades. As always, ensure proper risk management and consider external economic factors that may influence price movements.
#Nifty directions and levels for May 21st.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for May 21st:
The global market is indicating a bullish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, while our local market sentiment also suggests a bullish trend. It might open with a gap-up start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing an increase of +60 points.
Nifty has a minor consolidation structure after the sharp rally. GiftNifty indicates a positive start, and the structure also suggests the continuation of the rally. However, there is major resistance at the 78% Fibonacci level. so, If the market breaks or consolidates around this level, we can expect the rally to continue further, potentially reaching 22,636 to 22,684. and The 22,684 level is a supply zone, so if the rally is rejected there, we can expect a correction of 23% to 38% in the minor swing.
Alternatively, if the market is rejected around the 78% Fibonacci level or if the gap-up doesn’t sustain, it may retrace 38% in the minor swing. Here we have two scenarios:
1 - There has been a solid rally, so according to the structure, it could undergo a retracement of 23% to 38%. After that, if it finds support at either 23% or 38%, the rally is likely to continue.
2 - According to the wave structure, a 5-3 structure is forming, indicating a zigzag variation. If the market breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, it may enter a correction phase. If this happens, you can set your target at 50% and 78%.
#Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count Analysis ( Ready for $44000 ?)#Bitcoin Elliott Wave Count Analysis
Intermediate Degree:
▪️We are observing a potential wave (3) down of a descending impulse on the 1-day chart.
▪️Target: $48,000 - $44,000.
Primary Degree:
▪️The 1-day chart suggests wave C down of a zigzag pattern is in progress.
▪️Target: $58,000 - $61,000.
Cycle Degree:
▪️At the cycle degree, wave ((ii)) down of an ascending diagonal appears to be forming.
▪️Target: $52,000 - $58,000.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on current market conditions and the Elliott Wave Theory.
Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
Stay tuned for more updates and detailed insights.
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ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES - HEADED DOWN I analyzed ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES. The stock is bearish and is in Zigzag correcive Wave.
It is headed down to channel bottom and can also test 200 EMA in that region. Possible targets 543 and 529.
I will buy once it reaches these levels as bullish cypher or bullish shark pattern will form.
Dabur India Ltd. Target 820 Upside 53%Basis wave theory:
Its making a diagonal triangle in its cycle V, of which it completed primary corrective wave 4 in the week of 23 oct. 23. Its previous cycle wave III was exaggerated at 4.618x, and cycle wave 5 was expected to end at 1x at about 627, it however exceeded that by narrow margin of little over 5% (peak 658). This overshooting, and non completion of pattern in the month of Sep.21, suggests that movement is not yet complete.
In current cycle, primary 2 was a zigzag and 4 is a horizontal triangle, fitting theory. Despite two divergences, primary 3 being less than 1.618 and shape being expanding wedge (not a contracting one), I am convinced on the pattern being a diagonal triangle.
Many iterations over the waves, fail to convince on a 5-3-5-3-5 wave structure, and all the factors are skewed towards a 3-3-3-3-3 structure, namely concluding wedge. Moreover, completion of a triangle on 26 Oct. 23, confirms that the final wave 5 has started / yet to start (so far, a satisfactory intermediate triangle completion suggests that final wave has started).
Final primary wave 5 targets 683, 727 / 812, while cycle V targets 820, a positive confluence. This final wave 5 should take a 3 wave structure ABC (not 5, while internal structure may be 5-3-5).
I recall that in very rare cases a diagonal triangle will fail to touch its upper (or lower in bearish case) boundary , in that case, an upward thrust is expected. Post triangle thrust suggests 683 as the target.
Completion of wave 4 is also confirmed by time, i.e. wave 3 primary was completed in about 2 years and current bearish / sideways phase also lasted for about 2 years, suggesting and end of bearish / sideways phase. Moreover, shooting far above the cycle trend channel, by all the 4 primaries, suggests shifting of base (inflation effect?) and higher tops than orthodox (even before onset of our dear friend Mr. Corona Virus)
Alternative confirmations / disagreements:
+ Triangle completion on 26 Oct. also made a double bottom (triple, more lavishly) within its local region.
+ 482-504 is a local demand zone, to which the stock reacted swiftly, it tapped this zone on 26th oct. and bounced (or bouncing) until it reaches supply zone of 600ish levels
+ The low of 504.1 which it touched on 26th Oct., was also a reactive level of 50% of the swing + starting from May 2019, (to which it had reacted swiftly twice)
+ PoC of entire bearish move from Sep 21, lies at about 562, and price dipping below VAL ,suggests it should attempt to touch that region again.
+ Bollinger band width has gained a positive slope after tapping its lift time bottom (a post triangle thrust generally is swift, so rising volatility is a good sign)
+ Weekly 200 EMA (523) strong rejection in week of 23rd oct and close above it in next week with a bullish candle
+ MFI returning from oversold zone
+ OBV tapped below its support levels, suggesting a reversal may be observed. Accu/Dist on a rising trend.
+ Seems breakout out of Supertrend Sell boundary, with close above it, though with a small body
+ 2 closes above weekly R1, strong recovery from monthly and quarterly S2s with bullish harami and 2 closes above quarterly S1 (also weekly P).
+ Barring one occasion in past, whenever it dipped into quarterly S1, a strong rally followed (over weeks), this time its returning from a prominent bruise i.e. dipping below quarterly S2.
Macd still bearish, on monthly TF, while on weekly it shows reduction in deceleration (may be its too early stage of reversal, or correction may elongate if this doesn’t prove to be bullish reversal)
Monthly RSI not giving any signal (ideally, an oversold would have been good)
Monthly, weekly ATR still sloping negative (positive slope would be good)
Weekly still under ichimoku cloud, a penetration is expected as the cloud is narrowed.
Still below middle line of Donchian channel (maybe its too early stage of reversal)
Still below daily 200 EMA of 551
Seems to be approaching its anchored Vwap of 555 (through which it slid rapidly)
Break of structure / change of character is not yet observed, so strictly, opening long is not desirable, but am opening long, as the advance may be rapid and may not give good entry points with theoretical pullbacks
Fundamentals:
+ Large institutional brokers have given target of 600+, no sell or reduce ratings by anyone
High TTM PEG ratio, though RoE of circa 20% is good to have.
+ PE of 54 (historical) seems overvalued, however post 2018, 50ish level seems to be good support
+ Forward two years earnings on growth side, though not very high (supportive of diagonal triangle theory), last two quarterly over 10% YoY growth in operating profit is comforting, maintaining OPM at 20% levels.
+++ Low debt , RoA of 12.5% is still very good (though it has fallen compared to past, quarterly improvements overscore this, atleast for the time being)
+++ Crisil AAA / A1+ - Top notch
+ Recent management interaction on how they are planning to improve their brand valuation, suggests that the company has now started taking falling performance seriously and working over it. So, growth may be expected over long run (though in short run, post diagonal, we would know who stays from old investors and who goes out).
Fundamentals not repeated here, institutional brokerages have done good job in their reports
F&O / Insiders / Bulk / Shareholding / News / Management:
Nov Futures at negative basis
PCR of OI very high at 1.05
+ No insider selling in about 2 years / no block/bulk for almost a year
++ No promoter disposals in last quarters, stays at ~66% and Zero Pledge
+ MF increased holdings by >1% ( while FIIs reduced by almost same amount)
Conclusion : The Stock seems to be fulfilling the prophecies of a diagonal, and a thrust is suggested in high probability. Timelines are either by Aug.24 or by Jan 25 (one of the two)
NB – On fundamental side I am still relying heavily on analysts reports, given they are from proven good platforms, am yet to deep dive myself into it.
Disclaimer : The contents herein are my personal views, with an objective of seeking views and comments from traders community at TV. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an advice, offer, inducement or encouragement to buy or sell any shares, security, derivatives linked to the security, debt security or any other security of the company mentioned herein. The readers must make their independent assessment and evaluation of the company and its securities, and should take advice from their financial advisors before entering into making any financial decision, without relying on anything contained hereinabove, or views given as addendum or comments hereafter. The author shall not be responsbile or liable, directly or indirectly, for any loss or damage caused to the reader, or any other person or third party, whether pecuniary or otherwise, whether in present or in future.
#Nifty directions and levels of May 6th."Good morning, friends! Here are the directions for May 6th:
There have been no changes in the global market; it's maintaining its range, while our local market sentiment also indicates a moderately bearish trend. It might open with a gap-up start, as suggested by GiftNifty, showing an increase of +100.
Nifty fell drastically in the previous session, so the correction might continue when it breaks the previous day's low. However, GiftNifty is indicating a gap-up start. So, how can we interpret this sentiment? First, let's look at the structure, which indicates a range market. Often, this kind of fall happens in the range market but doesn't continue. If this fall had occurred in the trading market, we would surely expect a reversal, but it's not a trending market.
So, simply put, my expectation is if the gap-up sustains, then the range will likely continue. The first variation suggests (current view) ('B' leg of zigzag variation (three-wave pattern)): if the gap-up sustains, then we can expect minor rejection at the level of 50%. If it happens, we can assume it's an 'A' and 'B' leg.after that if it break the fib level 50% it could continue the pullback, which should be in the 'C' leg, reaching 61 to 78%.
Note: One more thing, if the initial market breaks the fib level of 50%, then the 'A' leg might go to 61%, so that's why I mentioned 50 or 61% where it will reject. if it happens then You can complete the 'A' leg there and expect 'B' minor retracement and 'C' pullback.
The alternate variation suggests that even if the initial market rejects sharply, we can expect minor consolidation between the opening range to the previous bottom. After that, if it breaks the range either upside or downside, we can follow the direction.
EID Parry for 40% gainIn the longer time frame, the stock seems to be in Wave 5 that could lead to about 1000+ levels. The present level (620) is part of Wave III that may culminate at around 880 which is also the 1.618 fib level as seen in the chart. This doesn’t mean that the rise will be a straight line. The zigzag move may take some time but even if it takes 6 months or more to reach 880 (40% gain), the return is good. Any fall towards 590 levels should be an opportunity to add. This is not a recommendation to trade. Please do your own due diligence.
Rossari Biotech - A Long Term Investment stock IdeaIn this weekly chart it seems wave (a or i) is completed at 904 and wave (b or ii) formed a WXY(double zigzag corrective) pattern and made low near 61%. So there is a possibility that wave (c or iii) is already started or it may start soon and this stock may bounce in given range in chart. Its again a good long term investment stock which is available at lower price.
COFORGE moving into supply zone short termStock has rallied good in the recent month and started making zigzag zone and at the same time struggled to make a higher high indicating signs of weakness , the rising wedge and a rounding bottom within it supplementing the weakness bias . Momentum indicators signalling diversion and not much market participation ( possible signs of distribution during the zig zag move )
Time cycle is fresh and a breach down here could trigger inversion , keep a watch on this counter for short term weakness at the break of recent support zone (highlighted in amber)
Note : Slight thought, it could loiter around for a while or possibly make weak upmove a bit before breaching the support zone