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Nifty Starts July Quietly; Sideways Action May ContinueNifty began the month on a subdued note, registering a net weekly loss of 176.80 points (-0.69%). Market volatility also eased, with the India VIX declining by 0.59% to 12.31, indicating reduced trader anxiety. From a technical standpoint, an immediate resistance zone has developed between 25,500 and 25,650, while a key support range lies between 25,200 and 25,300. Open Interest (OI) data adds weight to these levels, with a significant build-up of call writing at 25,500 suggesting strong resistance, and put writing at 25,200 indicating solid support. Looking ahead, Nifty is expected to remain range-bound between these two zones unless a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty Eyes Upside as Bulls Take Charge Ahead of Expiry WeekThe Nifty closed around 25,112 on Friday, marking a 1.29% gain for the week and signalling strong bullish momentum. The rally was driven by broad-based buying, particularly in financial heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries. Despite lingering global uncertainties, market sentiment remained stable, with the India VIX closing at 13.67—reflecting subdued volatility and cautious optimism among participants. In the derivatives space, the highest concentration of put writing at the 25,000 strike highlights strong immediate support, while the 25,500 level is emerging as a key resistance zone due to significant call writing activity. Heading into the upcoming expiry week, the bullish trend is likely to continue, provided no major geopolitical shocks disrupt market sentiment.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by GoodluckCapital
Bulls on Standby: Can Nifty Unleash Its Next Leg Higher?As anticipated, Nifty consolidated within a 600-point range between 24,500 and 25,100 last week, ending with a modest weekly gain of around 1%. Volatility eased as well, with India VIX declining by 9% to close at 14.63, reflecting improved market stability. Open Interest (OI) data indicates immediate support at 24,800, backed by the highest concentration of put writing. Looking ahead, there is a strong possibility that Nifty may breach the 25,100 resistance level in the coming sessions, which could trigger a swift rally toward the 25,500 mark.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by GoodluckCapital
Heads Up! ITC Looks Ready to FlyAfter a steady decline from its highs, ITC has made a strong comeback, bouncing perfectly off its trendline support. And now—it’s broken past its trendline resistance! 📈 This breakout could be the start of a new bullish wave, with momentum likely to carry the stock higher in the sessions ahead. 💰 Dividend Alert: ITC has announced a final dividend of ₹7.85 per share, with the ex-date on 28th May. This is the highest dividend declared by ITC in the last 5 years. That could bring some serious action in the next couple of trading days. 🎯 All eyes on ITC—this might just be the breakout we’ve been waiting for!
NSE:ITCLong
by GoodluckCapital
12
Nifty to Stay in Pause Mode Ahead of Expiry WeekAfter a strong run, the Nifty rally seems to be losing steam and has now slipped into consolidation mode. With the monthly derivatives expiry coming up next week, the market is likely to remain range-bound. Options data suggests that Nifty has carved out a trading range between 24,500 and 25,100. Until we see a decisive move beyond either end of this 600-point band, don’t expect a strong directional trend. A clear breakout above 25,100 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breach below 24,500 might invite fresh selling pressure. Until then, it’s all about sideways action and expiry-driven volatility.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
1
Nifty Outlook: Range-Bound Week Ahead?📈 Nifty wrapped up the week on a positive note, climbing about 1% and keeping the bullish sentiment alive. 🔍 However, the daily chart reveals some hesitation, as the index struggles to stay above the 24,400 mark. 📊 Looking ahead, Nifty is likely to move sideways between 24,500 and 24,000, with heavy call writing at the top and put writing at the bottom, creating a tight trading range. ⚠️ Adding to the caution, the India VIX closed above 18, hinting at increased market Volatility. 💡 Bottom line: Traders should gear up for a volatile and range-bound week ahead. Stay sharp, stay strategic!
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty Faces Resistance: Bullish Momentum Expected Above 24kNifty has breached its trendline resistance but encountered selling pressure near the 23,870 level, suggesting a possible pullback toward the 23,000 support zone. A potential Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern is forming, which could signal a trend reversal. However, confirmation would require a decisive breakout and sustained hold above the 24,000 resistance level. Also the open interest data indicates strong call writing at 24,000, reinforcing its significance as a key resistance. In the near term, the index is expected to trade sideways, with market participants awaiting Q4 earnings results for further directional cues. The upcoming earnings season will likely dictate the next major move in the market.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
1
Dead Cat Bounce or Trend Reversal: What's Next for the Nifty?● After a significant decline from its all-time high, Nifty found strong support near the 22,000 level. ● Since then, the index has rebounded and recently breached its trendline resistance, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. 🚀 📊 Open Interest (OI) Data Analysis: ● The OI data indicates a substantial increase in put open interest at the 23,000 strike price, establishing this level as a key immediate support. ● Conversely, the 23,500 strike price has emerged as a strong resistance zone, with the highest concentration of call OI. ❓ Key Question: Has the Nifty truly bottomed out, or is there still room for further correction? 🤔 💬 Share your insights and perspectives in the comments below! 👇
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Breakout Alert: Tata Steel and Mazagon Dock Power Up for a Surge◉ Tata Steel NSE:TATASTEEL ● The stock price has recently broken out of a falling broadening wedge pattern, signaling a potential upward movement. ● With the government's plans to impose taxes on steel imports, the stock could experience a rally in the near future. ◉ Mazagon Dock NSE:MAZDOCK ● The price has formed a bullish Pole & Flag pattern on the chart. ● Following a fresh breakout, the stock is expected to continue its upward trajectory.
NSE:TATASTEELLong
by GoodluckCapital
2
Momentum Stocks to Watch: INDIGO & NH Gear Up for Rally◉ Interglobe Aviation NSE:INDIGO ● The stock has formed a Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the daily chart. ● Following a recent breakout, the price is anticipated to witness substantial upward movement in the coming days. ◉ Narayana Hrudalaya NSE:NH ● After a prolonged consolidation phase, the stock has developed a Rounding Bottom pattern. ● With the price breaking out of this pattern, it is now trending upward, signalling potential for further gains in the near term.
NSE:INDIGOLong
by GoodluckCapital
1
Nifty Down 16% from Highs: Eyes on Next Support at 21,800● Nifty 50 has declined by approximately 16% from its all-time high, signalling a significant correction in the market. ● The next crucial support level is anticipated around the 21,800 mark, a level where the index has historically found support on five previous occasions. ◉ OI Data Analysis ● The 22,500 strike price has the highest concentration of call writers, establishing it as a strong immediate resistance level. ● Conversely, the 22,000 strike price shows the highest accumulation of put writers, indicating robust support at this level. ◉ Valuation Analysis ● From a valuation standpoint, the Nifty appears attractive, currently trading at a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 19.7. ● This is notably below its 5-year average PE of 24.8, suggesting the index may be undervalued relative to its historical standards.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty Under Stress: Will 22,800 Support Level Hold?● The Nifty is currently trading near its immediate support zone around the 22,800 level. ● The open interest data reveals a notable surge in call OI at the 22,800 strike price, with call OI increased by 38 lakh shares in the last trading session. ● On the other hand, put OI also rose by 20 lakh. ● This activity suggests strong support at the 22,800 level, indicating it is unlikely to be breached easily in the near term. ● However, a break below this support level could lead to a downward move toward the 22,500 level. ● In the current scenario, the market is expected to remain range-bound and choppy in the upcoming week.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
Nifty’s Eight-Day Slump: Is a Reversal Brewing at 22,800?● Last week proved to be a challenging period for the Nifty, as the index experienced a sharp decline of over 2.5%, extending its losing streak to eight consecutive trading sessions. ● A key support level to watch is at 22,800, which could act as a crucial floor for the index. ● This level gains further significance as Open Interest (OI) data reveals a substantial buildup of put writers at the 22,800 strike price, reinforcing the potential support zone. ● Market participants will closely monitor whether the index manages to hold above this level or breaches it in the coming sessions. ● Adding to the intrigue, a bullish RSI divergence has emerged, hinting at the possibility of a trend reversal in the near term.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
FMCG Sector in Bearish Grip: Short Sellers Eyes on Colpal◉ FMCG Sector Overview NSE:CNXFMCG ● The Nifty FMCG index appears to be in a bearish phase, having formed a bearish engulfing pattern near a key support level. ● This suggests a potential breach of the support level in the near term. Given this scenario, there may be an opportunity to consider short positions in select stocks within the sector. ◉ Colgate Palmolive Technical Analysis NSE:COLPAL ● On the weekly chart, Colgate Palmolive has developed a Head and Shoulders pattern, a classic bearish reversal formation. ● The stock is currently hovering near the neckline, and a breach of this level appears imminent, which could signal further downside. ◉ OI Data Analysis ● Open interest analysis reveals, significant long unwinding during the recent trading session, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment toward the negative side. This further supports the bearish outlook for the stock. ● The option chain data indicates that the 2,600 level could act as an immediate support, as it has the highest concentration of put writers. However, if this level is breached, the stock could see additional downward momentum.
NSE:CNXFMCGShort
by GoodluckCapital
1
Consumption Boom: Tax Cuts Fuel India's Consumer Stock SurgeRecent trends in the Indian stock market indicate a significant shift from industrials to consumer-oriented stocks, particularly in sectors such as consumer goods, consumer discretionary, and automobiles. This change has been catalysed by the government's recent budget announcement, which included income tax cuts aimed at boosting consumer spending. ◉ Key Insights ● Increased Consumer Spending: The reduction in income tax is expected to enhance disposable income for individuals, thereby accelerating the shift towards consumption stocks. This trend is already visible, with the Nifty India Consumption Index NSE:CNXCONSUMPTION rising over 3% following the budget announcement. ● Impact on Industrial Stocks: Conversely, industrials faced a downturn post-budget, with the BSE Capital Goods Index dropping by 3% and the Infrastructure and Industrials indices falling over 2.5%. This indicates a market sentiment that favours consumer spending over capital expenditure in the short term. ● Bullish Outlook on Specific Sectors: Analysts are optimistic about sectors such as paints, consumer durables (including electric goods), and two-wheeler manufacturers like Bajaj Auto. These stocks are seen as underperformers that stand to benefit significantly from increased consumption. ◉ Government's Strategy The government's strategy to stimulate consumption rather than focusing solely on capital expenditure marks a notable shift in fiscal policy. The intent is clear: by putting more money in consumers' hands, the government aims to invigorate spending and support economic growth. ◉ Market Predictions Market participants predict that consumption stocks will lead market rallies in the near to medium term. The expected increase in spending from the middle class could help alleviate slow growth numbers in sectors like automotive and FMCG. ◉ Conclusion As investors navigate these changes on Dalal Street, it is crucial to consider the implications of government policies on market dynamics. The current environment presents opportunities for those looking to invest in consumer-focused sectors while remaining cautious about industrial stocks in the near future.
NSE:CNXCONSUMPTIONLong
by GoodluckCapital
CreditAccess Grameen: A Turnaround in Sight Short Term Trading Advice by Goodluck Capital Buy CreditAccess Grameen Buy Range- 990 - 1030 Target- 1200 - 1250 StopLoss- below 845 Upside Potential- 20% -25% Approx trade duration 20 - 25 days ◉ Technical Analysis ● After a substantial decline, the stock is now showing signs of recovery, bouncing back from its trendline support. ● Additionally, the increasing trading volume is reinforcing the likelihood of a turnaround, indicating a potential reversal in the stock's fortunes. ◉ Fundamental Rationale The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) recent liquidity infusion of over ₹1.5 lakh crore is expected to boost economic growth and create a favorable environment for microfinance institutions (MFIs) like CreditAccess Grameen. Here are the key benefits: ● Improved Liquidity for Lending: The injection will help MFIs meet their short-term funding requirements, reducing their reliance on expensive sources of funding. ● Potential Interest Rate Cuts: Lower interest rates will enable CreditAccess Grameen to access cheaper capital, making loans more affordable for low-income customers. ● Boost to Rural Economy: Budget 2025's focus on rural development through increased government spending will enhance the repayment capacity of borrowers, reducing credit risks for MFIs. This will create a favorable environment for CreditAccess Grameen to operate and expand their services.
NSE:CREDITACCLong
by GoodluckCapital
Margin Concerns Weigh on HDFC Bank Shares, Down 2.2%◉ HDFC Bank's Quarterly Update HDFC Bank, the largest constituent of the Nifty 50 index, has released its quarterly performance update, highlighting a notable divergence in deposit and loan growth. Specifically, the bank reported a 15.8% year-on-year increase in deposits, significantly outpacing the 3% year-on-year growth in loans. ◉ A Cloud of Uncertainty Experts believe this gap could negatively impact the bank's net interest margin, possibly reducing its net profit. ◉ Investors Take a Step Back This news caused a stir in the market, leading to a 2.2% drop in the share price yesterday (Jan 06). ◉ Technical Observations ● The stock price has fallen below its trendline support and is currently trending downward. ● A minor support is anticipated around ₹1,700. ● If the stock price drops below this level, the next support is projected to be close to ₹1,600.
NSE:HDFCBANK
by GoodluckCapital
Invest in ZENTEC: Pioneering Next-Gen Defence Solutions◉ Abstract Zen Technologies Ltd is set for strong growth in the Indian defense market. The market is expected to rise from USD 17.40 billion in 2024 to USD 23.05 billion by 2029. The company focuses on advanced training and counter-drone solutions, and is benefiting from government initiatives of promoting indigenous production under the “Make in India” project. Moreover, Indian Govt. plans to double defense spending by FY30. A recent partnership with AVT Simulation will help Zen expand in the U.S. market. With a solid order book of ₹3,500 Crores and a revenue goal of ₹900 Crores for FY2025, Zen is investing heavily in research and development. Although its high PE ratio may suggest it’s overvalued, the company’s strong finances and growth plans indicate good potential for investors. Read full analysis here: ◉ Introduction The Indian Defence Market is expected to experience significant growth in the coming years. According to a recent report, the market size is estimated to be USD 17.40 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 23.05 billion by 2029. ◉ Growth Drivers ● Government Initiatives: The Indian government is heavily promoting indigenous production through initiatives like "Make in India," which aims to reduce dependency on imports and bolster local manufacturing capabilities. ● Increased Defence Spending: India's defence budget is expected to double between FY24 and FY30, with significant allocations for new weapons procurement and R&D. For FY 2023-2024, the budget for new weapons procurement is set at USD 19.64 billion, along with USD 2.79 billion for research and development. ● Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing border disputes with neighbouring countries such as China and Pakistan necessitate increased military spending and modernization efforts. ● Export Opportunities: Indian defence exports have surged significantly, rising from USD 200 million in FY17 to USD 2.6 billion in FY24, with expectations to reach USD 7 billion by FY30. The government's focus on enhancing export relationships with countries like Italy, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia further supports this growth. This in-depth report shines the spotlight on Zen Technologies , a mid-cap defence company that has carved a niche for itself in the Indian defence landscape. With a keen focus on pioneering training solutions and cutting-edge counter-drone technologies, Zen Technologies has emerged as a significant player in the industry. ◉ Investment Advice 💡 Buy Zen Technologies NSE:ZENTEC ● Buy Range - 2000 - 2050 ● 1st Target - 2500 - 2600 ● Potential Return - 25% - 30% ● 2nd Target - 2800 ● Potential Return - 40% ● Approx Holding Period - 12-14 months ◉ Company Overview Zen Technologies Limited, incorporated in 1996, specializes in designing, developing, and manufacturing cutting-edge combat training solutions and Counter-drone solutions for defence and security forces. The company is committed to the indigenization of technologies that benefit the Indian armed forces, state police forces, and paramilitary forces, providing them with innovative training solutions to enhance their combat readiness. With its headquarters in Hyderabad, India, Zen Technologies Limited has a significant global presence, with offices in India, UAE, and the USA. This widespread presence enables the company to effectively support its clients and partners worldwide. ◉ Market Capitalization - ₹18,858 Cr. ◉ Expansion into U.S. Market ➖ Zen Technologies recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with AVT Simulation to enhance its presence in the U.S. defence sector. This partnership aims to leverage AVT’s expertise in simulation technologies to introduce Zen's products to U.S. defence agencies. ◉ Revenue Projections for FY2025 ➖ Despite a strong start to the fiscal year, with revenues reaching ₹500 Crores in the first half, Zen Technologies' management has set a cautious revenue target of ₹900 Crores for FY2025. ◉ Expansion Plans ➖ Zen Technologies aims to expand into the Navy and Air Force segments through organic growth and acquisitions. ➖ The company plans to acquire Indian and overseas businesses, with deal sizes between ₹100-₹300 Crores. ◉ Investment in R&D ➖ Zen Technologies is investing heavily in research and development (R&D) to drive innovation and stay ahead of the curve. ➖ The company is currently developing new products that are reportedly two generations more advanced than those showcased in 2021. This focus on R&D underscores Zen Technologies' dedication to delivering cutting-edge solutions that meet the evolving needs of its customers. ◉ Order Book Status ➖ A substantial order pipeline of ₹3,500 Crores is in place, with ₹1,200 Crores expected to be executed in the next financial year. ➖ Order inflow is forecasted to pick up significantly towards the end of Q3 and into Q4 of FY2025, positioning for continued growth and success. ◉ Margin Expectations ➖ Management targets 35% EBITDA margin and 25% PAT margin, despite current gross margin pressures due to product and geographical mix changes. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● Year-on-year ➖ The company's FY24 performance was marked by impressive growth, with sales reaching ₹440 crore, representing a 100% year-over-year increase. ➖ EBITDA also surged significantly, rising to ₹181 crore from ₹73 crore in FY23. ➖ Notably, the company achieved a substantial EBITDA margin of 41%, highlighting its operational efficiency and profitability. ● Quarter-on-quarter ➖ The company's recent quarter sales stood at ₹242 crore, a decline from the previous quarter, but a substantial increase from ₹66 crore in the same quarter last year. ➖ EBITDA dropped to ₹80 crore from ₹111 crore in the previous quarter. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ The stock's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 93.1 appears overstretched compared to its industry average PE of 51.6. ➖ Furthermore, relative to its 1-year median PE of 76.5, the stock seems overvalued, suggesting potential downside risks. ● PEG Ratio ➖ When we look at the PEG ratio of just 1.64, the stocks looks fairly valued relative to its anticipated earnings growth. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ The company's operating cash flow experienced a substantial decline in FY24, plummeting to ₹13 crore from a robust ₹116 crore in FY23. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ With a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.04, the company enjoys a virtually debt-free status, underscoring its robust financial health and providing a solid foundation for future expansion. ◉ Top Shareholders ➖ In the September quarter, promoters reduced their stake to 51.26% from 55.07% in the previous quarter. ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have significantly raised their holdings to 5.72%. ➖ Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also increased their stakes, now at 8.05%, up from 3.37% in June. ➖ Conversely, retail investors sold shares, decreasing their holdings to 34.5% from 37.94% in June 2024. ◉ Mutual Fund Exposure ➖ Institutional holdings in Zen Technologies skyrocketed by 550% to 42 lakh shares in October 2024, with 23 funds taking a significant stake, up from 6.4 lakh shares in July. ◉ Bulk Deal Alert ➖ On December 3, 2024, Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund acquired over 11 lakh shares of Zen Technologies through a bulk deal. ◉ Technical Standings ➖ The monthly chart clearly illustrates a strong upward trend in the stock, marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows. ➖ The daily chart also presents a bullish scenario, with the formation of an Ascending Triangle pattern. ➖ A fresh breakout from this pattern is likely to propel the stock to new highs. ◉ Conclusion Following a comprehensive analysis of fundamental and technical indicators, we firmly believe that Zen Technologies is well-positioned for robust growth, underpinned by its innovative solutions and strong research and development capabilities. The company's strategic expansion plans into key markets, particularly the United States, are expected to unlock vast opportunities, driving significant growth in revenue and profitability. This, in turn, is likely to have a positive impact on the company's top-line and bottom-line performance, as well as its share price.
NSE:ZENTECLong
by GoodluckCapital