XAUUSD (H3) – Liam Weekly Trading PlanStructure has shifted | Early-week focus stays SELL on rallies
Quick summary
Gold has completed a sharp downside expansion after a prolonged bullish run, breaking the prior structure decisively. The current price action shows weak recovery attempts, suggesting the move lower is corrective-to-distributive rather than a completed reversal.
For the start of the week, the bias remains clear: sell the structure, not chase bounces.
Market structure
The previous uptrend has been fully disrupted by an impulsive sell-off.
Price is now trading below former support, which has flipped into resistance.
Current rebounds lack momentum and show characteristics of corrective pullbacks, not accumulation.
This keeps the market in a sell-on-rallies environment until proven otherwise.
Key technical zones
Primary sell FVG / resistance: 4970 – 5000
This zone aligns with imbalance and prior liquidity and is the preferred area for sell reactions.
Secondary sell FVG: 4795 – 4820
A lower reaction zone where price may stall before continuing lower.
Deeper liquidity target: 4340 – 4350
This remains the main downside objective if the structure continues to unwind.
Upper invalidation zone: 5300+
Acceptance above this area would force a reassessment of the bearish bias.
Early-week scenarios
Primary scenario – SELL rallies
As long as price remains capped below the 4970–5000 zone, any rebound should be treated as corrective. The expectation is for further downside continuation toward lower liquidity.
Secondary scenario – Deeper pullback
If price fails to reclaim the first sell zone cleanly, a slow grind lower into the 4795–4820 area may occur before continuation.
Reassessment condition
Only a strong reclaim and acceptance above 5300 would invalidate the current sell structure.
Key notes
Early-week price action often clears residual liquidity.
Avoid counter-trend longs inside resistance.
Let price come to the level, then execute.
Structure > opinion.
Weekly focus:
selling corrective rallies into FVG and resistance, or waiting for price to show a clear structural shift before changing bias.
— Liam
