EUR/USD Price AnalysisThe EUR/USD pair is currently trading around 1.0970, facing slight losses in the early European session after pulling back from a four-month high of 1.1017. Traders are awaiting inflation data from Italy, France, and the Eurozone, with the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) expected to show a 3.9% YoY growth in November.
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains a positive outlook, staying above the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the four-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in bullish territory, suggesting a favorable trend for the pair.
Immediate resistance is observed at 1.1000, marked by the Bollinger Band boundary and a psychological round figure. The next resistance levels are at 1.1017 and 1.1042, followed by a potential rally to 1.1150 if buying momentum persists.
On the downside, a key support level lies at 1.0930, indicated by the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and the 50-hour EMA. Further support is found at 1.0895 (low of November 24), 1.0867 (100-hour EMA), and 1.0825 (low of November 17). Monitoring these levels can provide insights into potential price movements.
Signals
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predict the next trend of XAUXAU has grown in the past three weeks. Experts predict that XAU will continue to grow in the near future. If it surpasses the 2008 threshold, XAU will still grow greatly.
According to the minutes of the two-day (October 31-November 1) monetary policy meeting released on November 21, US Federal Reserve officials acted cautiously and did not intend to raise interest rates. We agreed to do only that. Interest rates if progress in controlling inflation slows.
Minutes of the meeting showed that all participants agreed that the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may proceed cautiously and that support for rate hikes appears to be receding. .
Inflation is slowing, with consumer prices flat in October compared to the previous month, and although the Fed has not yet declared an end to the fight against inflation, there are discussions to raise interest rates from the current 5.25% to 5.50%. % and how long it should be maintained. maintained. range.
The minutes of the meeting said further monetary tightening would be appropriate if there was information that indicated the FOMC's path to achieving its inflation target was inadequate.
Simple Bank Nifty Analysis!Buyers Showing strength but still facing Resistance at 43700 to 43800. If sustain above 43850 then good move is expected or a gap up opening.
Trendline Support at 43650 to 43680
Key level 43580 keep eyes on it if trade below then may sellers gets active more.
BN made a V shaped recovery from last fall but very slowpace then selling.
Note : Do your own analysis before making any trade or investment.
FOMC and CPI news increased NZD positionFollowing the Canadian CPI report and related FOMC minutes, the Canadian dollar remained unchanged from its base of 1.3700. In case you missed the data, both headline and core inflation are down slightly, potentially leading the Bank of Canada (BoC) to take a more neutral/accommodative stance.
Central bank governor Tiff Macklem is speaking out, and given his recent comments that minimal growth and inflation are now easing, the message of caution may be clear. Currently, the foreign exchange market predicts that interest rates will be cut by a cumulative 80 basis points by December 2024, and that monetary easing will begin around April to June.
PTKT: Given the decline in the Canadian dollar, investors can resort to a “buy NZDCAD” strategy at the current price, stop loss 0.8220 and target 0.8350.
trading strategy after gold surges due to volatilityGold rose higher after the fund bought 13 tons
Gold will likely continue to rise on November 21 but there will be a recovery
Data released last week raised hopes that the Fed could begin easing monetary conditions sooner than expected after the job market slowed and price inflation showed signs of cooling. Lower interest rates put downward pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion.
In the short term, experts say that precious metals have lost momentum and need new fundamental motivation to recover. However, according to Daniel, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, the impending recession combined with the Fed's interest rate cuts will push gold to new all-time highs in the first half of 2024.
The USD decreased later, but will recover after the Fed raises iData released last week raised hopes that the Fed could begin easing monetary conditions sooner than expected after the job market slowed and price inflation showed signs of cooling. Lower interest rates put downward pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion.
The decline in the DXY index paused last week. Last week, this index sometimes fell to its lowest level and has rebounded from that mark. Although developments over the past week are bringing some positive signs for the USD, in the long term, the greenback's upward momentum is still weak. Therefore, any recovery in the near term will be short-lived and it is likely that the USD can only rise to a certain threshold.
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Since our last analysis, we've established a new high, now representing our Wave (3). While there's potential for another significant upward surge in Wave (3), it's increasingly probable that the wave has reached its peak. The anticipation is that Wave (y) of (4) will ideally target the price range between $47 and $40.
The exact structure of the correction remains uncertain, so we must stay nimble and be prepared for shifts in the micro wave counts. However, my expectation is that we'll witness substantial momentum around the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
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US30 Buy Trade Unveiled Through Technical AnalysisDescription:
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Bullish Trend Formation:
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Support and Resistance Levels:
Crucial support levels have been identified, showcasing a strong foundation for potential price bounces. Additionally, resistance levels have been breached, indicating a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market.
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MATIC/USDT Technical Analysis: Navigating Key Levels and Potent MATIC/USDT Technical Analysis: Navigating Key Levels and Potential Scenarios
Current Status: MATIC is currently trading at $0.8532, reaching a recent high of $0.9831. The successful attainment of the $1 target, as previously predicted, signals profitable outcomes for those who followed our analysis.
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern: The chart reveals the formation of a symmetrical triangle, with a robust resistance level identified at $1.00. This pattern implies a consolidation phase, and future price movements within this triangle are crucial in determining MATIC's trajectory.
Future Potential: A breakthrough above the $1.00 resistance level could pave the way for a substantial uptrend, with potential targets ranging from $5 to $10 in the next bullish cycle. Traders are urged to closely monitor this pivotal level.
Bullish Momentum: In a bullish market, MATIC exhibits strong upward momentum, creating favorable conditions for potential breakout opportunities. Stay vigilant for positive trends and capitalize on bullish movements.
Potential Retracement Scenario: A rejection from the $0.90-$1.00 resistance zone may prompt a retracement, possibly testing the $0.48 support level. Such retracements offer buying opportunities for those seeking entry at more favorable prices.
Critical Levels to Watch:
Support Levels: $0.48, $0.30
Resistance Levels: $1.00, $1.50, $2.90
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XAU price forecast after a week of spikesGold just posted a massive rally of over 2% last week. Experts predict less dramatic price movements in the coming days, given the sharp and sudden movements in gold prices over the past month.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodity broker at RJO Futures, said he expects gold to continue to consolidate for an extended period of time as geopolitical risks reduce buying pressure. "It's very likely that we won't see any further rate hikes. There could be some rate cuts by next May, but I don't think that will happen. I think the fluctuations in gold prices will be moderate for a while. ”
“Gold prices continue to react to economic indicators, but there is no clear direction for the precious metal. If inflation statistics remain weak and interest rates do not fall, gold will struggle to move higher. I have not seen any other motive other than geopolitics,” expert Pavilonis further analyzed.
Looking at gold prices over the long term, analysts say that despite buying into safe-haven assets amid concerns about geopolitical tensions that helped push gold prices back towards $2,000. remains bullish on precious metals. /oz, is gradually disappearing. Many say expectations for interest rate changes as inflation subsides, the need to buy gold from central banks, and concerns about a near-term recession will provide solid support for gold. .
This week, the US Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. But experts say the gold market is no longer focused on this moment as investors focus on the timing of a rate cut.
DXY fell sharply after weak US economic dataWeak economic data, along with CPI and PPI data released earlier this week, reinforced the view that the Fed's rate hike cycle is over. This has strongly affected US government bond yields and caused the 10-year government bond yield to fall below 4.45%, approaching the lowest level since the end of September.
With the market expecting the Fed to gradually loosen monetary policy, gold prices may maintain an upward trend in the short term. This scenario will be confirmed if US economic data continues to weaken.
XAU trading strategy after PPI and CPI newsGold prices rose slightly in European trading yesterday, but fell again at the close. Meanwhile, UK inflation is showing signs of declining. Specifically, the UK Consumer Price Index rose by 4.6% in October, the slowest rise in two years, and a significant decline compared to the previous month's 6.7%. The main reason is falling fuel prices. Furthermore, the core inflation index also fell from 6.1% to 5.7%. This data was released shortly after the US CPI report and contributed to the rise in gold prices.
Gold matched its 200-day moving average and posted a strong three-day rally to $1,935 an ounce. However, if the gold price declines and returns below the 200-day moving average, the upper bound of the downward price channel and the $1,883.70 level will become visible. Meanwhile, current support lies at $1,935, and the $2,000 level still acts as the next psychological resistance.
Currently, the RSI index is still above the 50 point threshold, but there are no signs of overbought yet, suggesting that gold has enough strength to return above the $2,000 threshold. . The price range is $2,009.
USD exchange rate today November 17: Slight decreaseThe dollar traded steadily again as information on the US unemployment situation revised expectations for Fed rate cuts. Domestically, some banks this morning lowered their US dollar transaction rate from VND5 to VND20.
The dollar had fallen further after weaker-than-expected consumer price data raised concerns among many that inflation was slowing rapidly toward the Fed's 2% target. But the U.S. dollar rallied as markets grappled with uncertainty over when the Fed would cut the federal funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5% (which remains capped). For economic growth.
Gold trading strategy before CPI newsAccording to a Reuters poll, the U.S. monthly core CPI was expected to rise 0.3% in October, up 4.1% from the same month last year. The estimated intensity for September was similar for both.
This statistical range could strengthen expectations that the Fed will raise rates further in December, raising rates between 5.50% and 5.75%. However, the market continues to expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its December meeting and a 75% chance that it will cut rates next July. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said further developments on the data would be really important, especially in ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes.
Ellam said the dangerous risks from the Israeli-Hamas conflict have not yet completely subsided and could easily recur at any time, but as it subsides, data and the economy will return to being more important factors. He said he would come.
Economists at Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in June 2024. These expected reductions are on the order of 25 basis points and will ultimately lead to lower energy prices. The key interest rate will fall to 2.375% by the end of 2025.
New week yellow: The trend of reducing the gameSamson greets everyone!
The downward trend in prices continues at the beginning of the new week. Currently, at the opening of the week, precious metals are trading around $1938. There are no new developments in the tense situation in the Middle East, and the USD continues to strengthen. The Federal Reserve has not clearly determined the possibility of an interest rate hike, which negatively affects the price of gold.
On the 4-hour chart, Gold is showing signs of a reversal and is trading below two downward trend channels. Therefore, the downward trend is playing a favorable role in the market this week. The expected support level for this decline is $1915.
Gold prioritizes short sellingSamson greets everyone!
Gold prices today are still being negatively impacted in the market as the US Dollar Index, which measures the fluctuation of the greenback against six major currencies, is at 105.685 points (a decrease of 0.09%). The "hawkish" signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday have weighed down gold, as this precious metal is currently lacking supportive factors.
The downward trend continues to serve as an opportunity for short-selling traders. There may be a slight recovery, but it will only play a role as a corrective trend because selling gold remains the top priority strategy in the current situation.
Gold continues to decline?In the short term and based on the 4-hour XAU/USD chart, we can observe that the bullish side is once again testing the level of 1954 USD. However, a retreat at the level of 1953 USD would push the gold price to seek the resistance level of 1960 USD once again before further decline is expected at the level of 1945 USD.
Gold left 2000 USD again. What happens next?Today, the price of gold continues to move away from the $2,000 range, which it has been trading around since the beginning of the week. Currently, the precious metal is trading around $1,951. Here are some important pieces of information:
Factors contributing to the decline in gold prices:
- The current operating interest rate in the US is at its highest level in 22 years, at 5.25% - 5.5%.
- Another reason for the decrease in gold prices is the sharp drop in oil, which is closely related to gold. The price of WTI crude oil has fallen to $77 per barrel.
Despite the increase in the value of the US dollar, precious metals still attract the attention of major investors.
Technical analysis:
As predicted by Samson yesterday, gold has dropped below the key support level of $1,950 and has shown slight signs of recovery from this level at the start of today's trading session. However, the overall trend is still unclear. Gold needs to maintain its current support level in order to potentially return to $1,975. On the other hand, breaking the current support level could lead to a further decline towards the next support level at $1,933.