A comparison of US Economy under Trump Vs Joe Biden PresidencyIt is debatable whether any sitting US President can exert much control over an economy that is as large and as complex as that of the U.S. But Stock Markets are a fair indicator of the overall state of the US economy based on investor sentiment in the markets.
So let's have a look at the various factors that affected how the Dow Jones (as an illustrative example) and the US economy in general fared under Trump Vs Biden-Harris.
1. The DJI gained an impressive approx +12337 points (+67.22%) during the Presidency of Donald Trump, whereas it gained an equally impressive +11,868 points (+38.70%) under Biden-Harris.
2. Yet, the markets stumbled in the Second year of each Presidency - due to COVID lock downs, rising interest rates, Government shutdowns, Trade friction with China (under Trump), and rise in Inflation and interest rates (under Biden).
3. Year-3 was best under each Presidency, with impressive returns and dividends partly driven by reduction in interest rates (under Trump), Billions of Dollars in Stimulus packages, and reopening of economy post COVID and burgeoning AI driven boom (under Biden) and also lowering of interest rates (late into Biden Presidency).
4. Americans enjoyed relatively low Inflation under Trump, whereas resurgence of Inflation has been the biggest problem of Biden-Harris administration. The COVID induced supply chain snarls, geopolitical pressures, unleashing of pent-up demand, all pushed prices sharply higher under Biden-Harris.
5. Inflation has since cooled, most supply chains have normalised, Aggressive Fed rates have helped bring down price growth, still Inflation has increased by +20% during Biden-Harris Presidency and Americans are grappling under it's debilitating effects.
6. The US economy added 6.8 million jobs in the first three years under Trump, it then lost 9.8 million jobs in 2020 producing a Net Loss in employment under Trump. The US added 16.4 million jobs under Biden-Harris.
7. Americans ability to spend is usually their view of the economy. It is no surprise that most Americans feel they did better under Trump, when although wages were lower, but so was Inflation, with average hourly earnings rising +6.4% under Trump. While a tight labour market brought significant wage growth for most Americans under Biden-Harris, high Inflation has restricted purchasing power. The REAL Inflation adjusted wage growth under Biden-Harris is only +1.4%.
8. Notwithstanding a strong job market and economy under Biden-Harris, consumers aren't pleased with economic the conditions. But the Biden-Harris administration inherited a country suffering from the COVID pandemic fallout and soon Inflation added to the woes. Considering these factors Biden-Harris has done a fair job of keeping it together despite the added presuure of global geopolitical challenges.
Even as the US markets are at All Time High levels, confidence in the trajectory of the economy is very low. The Gallup's Global Life Evaluation Index for US is registering low levels of confidence typically seen during recession.
So, which Presidential candidate Trump or Harris, do you think will be better for the US economy in General and US and global markets in particular?
Please let us know in the comments below.
And we will have to wait and see who wins the elections this time and how the markets react.
S&P 500 (SPX500)
SPX // Levels // 4 hour "Welcome to SkyTradingZone "
Hello Everyone 👋
Here are the current support and resistance levels for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a 4-hour timeframe:
**Support Levels**
1. **Previous Low**: 3,940.00
2. **Fibonacci 38.2% Retracement**: 3,950.00
3. **200 SMA (Simple Moving Average)**: 3,965.00
4. **Fibonacci 23.6% Retracement**: 3,980.00
5. **Short-term Support**: 3,995.00
**Resistance Levels**
1. **Fibonacci 61.8% Retracement**: 4,020.00
2. **Previous High**: 4,040.00
3. **Fibonacci 78.6% Retracement**: 4,060.00
4. **Medium-term Resistance**: 4,080.00
5. **Long-term Resistance**: 4,100.00
**Notes**
* These levels are subject to change as market conditions evolve.
* These levels are based on historical data and may not be a guarantee of future price action.
* These levels are not the only levels that can be used; traders can use other indicators, such as moving averages or trend lines, to identify potential support and resistance levels.
**Current Market Conditions**
* The S&P 500 Index is currently trading in a bullish trend, with a series of higher highs and higher lows.
* The index is approaching the short-term resistance level of 3,995.00.
* If the index breaks above this level, it could potentially move towards the medium-term resistance level of 4,080.00.
**Trading Strategies**
* Buy at support: If the index breaks below the short-term support level of 3,995.00, it could be a good opportunity to buy.
* Sell at resistance: If the index breaks above the short-term resistance level of 4,020.00, it could be a good opportunity to sell.
* Trend following: Follow the trend by buying or selling based on whether the index is moving upwards or downwards.
* Mean reversion: Look for opportunities to buy when the index is oversold and sell when it is overbought.
Some key levels to watch in the S&P 500 Index:
* **Earnings**: The S&P 500 Index has seen strong earnings growth in recent quarters, with many companies beating expectations.
* **Valuations**: The S&P 500 Index has seen its valuations rise in recent months, with some metrics reaching all-time highs.
* **Interest Rates**: The Federal Reserve has been keeping interest rates low, which has helped to boost stock prices and fuel the rally.
Remember to always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk when trading.
SPX // Levels // 4 hour "Welcome to SkyTradingZone "
Hello Everyone 👋
Here are the levels for the S&P 500 (SPX) based on a 4-hour chart:
Resistance Levels:
4,120 - 4,130 (previous high)
4,140 - 4,150 (psychological level)
4,160 - 4,170 (resistance zone)
Support Levels:
4,070 - 4,080 (previous low)
4,050 - 4,060 (psychological level)
4,030 - 4,040 (support zone)
Key Levels:
4,100 - a crucial level to watch for trend continuation or reversal
4,080 - a potential reversal zone
Notes:
The SPX is currently trading around the resistance level of 4,100.
A break above this level could lead to further upside momentum.
A break below the support level of 4,080 could lead to a reversal in the trend.
The levels listed are based on historical data and may not be valid in the future.
S&P 500 Chart Update - SPX is currently trading at 5394
- We saw SPX printing major bearish candles
- SPX can go lower and we can easily see it making new lows
- CPI and FOMC rate decision on radar to flip this bearish bias
- Stock markets have crashed a lot this week expecting a dead cat bounce to trigger further sell offs
06 Sep 2024 - Nifty loses 380 pts, will Bear attack start now ?Nifty Stance Neutral ➡️
Nifty has only fallen 379.95pts ~ 1.5% this week and it is pretty early to go bearish, but the structure gives a lot of hope for a bear attack. You all might agree that we are in an overvalued territory, even if we fall 20%, we might still be overvalued.
If you look at the daily candle, a strong double top is forming. For conclusive evidence, the markets have to trade below 24086, which is 3.2% lower than the current levels.
US markets fell last week and have a better-looking double top than ours. Again for conclusive evidence, we may need SPX to trade below 5137 which is like 5% below current levels.
I am maintaining a neutral stance and would like to go short if 24537 is getting taken out next week. Personally, I do not see us dropping below 24200 this week (I have short positions @ 24200 PE and may have to run for cover if we test those levels by Tuesday).
SP500 : Bearish : Cycles pattern : Watch out!Look carefully at April 2005, October 2007 and Today. A "Sell Off" of 20% took place. History does not usually repeat itself, but in trading the phenomenon of cyclicals exists. It's just AMAZING! What do you think?!
In addition, the levels indicated are achievable in the medium term, 2-3 months;
In recent days, this is what happened at the macroeconomic level:
1-Jackson Hole
Result: No big impact on the markets: Dow Jones or techs.
2-NVIDIA long awaited:
Result: The action disappointed and went down
Minus 9.86% in total after closing and yesterday minus 6.38%.
Cause: Delay in the delivery of new chips, among others...
Will NVIDIA always explode the ceilings, while the competition arrives: AMD, GOOGLE, etc... with more efficient chips that do not heat up.
Technically the markets are OVERBOUGHT
so a return to the 38.2% or 50% of Fibonacci would be perfect for sellers, but also for buyers who would like to buy at a lower price!
I remind you that in trading we buy the bottoms and we sell the peaks!
S&P 500 Preparing for a Robust RallyOn Weekly Basis:
S&P 500 (SPY) completed its correction from 4800 to 3490 in its 5 Wave Down. Fibonacci 50% retracement from bottom 2300 to top 4800 ends at 3540, a support level in October, 2022. It took a support at 4115 which is a long-term horizontal support with multiple pivots on weekly charts. It looks like a fresh new Wave has just started from 4115 completing A Wave at 4771 and correcting B Wave at 4697. A powerful C Wave is currently intact and shall continue. D and E waves are not yet formed to predict a correction. There is a golden cross over at 200 DMA (January, 2023) and since then it has maintained an uptrend. It has come out of oversold position (June, 2022) to overbought position (currently) but may behave zig zag before meaningful correction may start. Now it has broken the strong resistance level at 4771 also a previous all-time high on weekly basis. Target of 5472 cannot be ruled out before a meaningful correction starts. There is still a chance for long position with 8% appreciation. AI, Semiconductors, Oil and Cryptos are the leaders in the pack.
Warning and Disclaimer:
Above prediction should not be taken as financial advise, it is a personal opinion.
Consult your financial advisor.
Investment is subject to market risks.
Past performance is not the guarantee for future performance.
It is for educational purpose only.
22 Apr - BankNifty also goes neutral, on further gains -ATH nextBankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
The show on BankNifty was sponsored by HDFC Bank which had its quarterly results declared over the weekend. The sharp gap-up opening and then falling to close the gap were all attributed to the price action of HDFCBK.
Despite the elephant losing 1.25% today, BN managed to close in strong GREEN. BN also managed to defend the 47465 support so decently that it too commanded a stance change from Bearish to Neutral.
48103 looks like an interim resistance above which BN could keep up the momentum to even take out the ATH. If we look back at the events that happened from 15th Apr, just notice how quickly the indices are managing to gain back the grounds they ceded. US indices like SPX and NDQ are yet to reverse but see how Indian indices are optimistic.
For tomorrow we wish to start with a neutral stance and then add on bullish positions if the momentum gains.
BankNifty Algos managed to end the day with a gain of Rs31488.
05 Mar ’24 — Nifty breaks a support, BN breaks a resistanceNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “Our stance continues to be bullish and the first support level would be 22295. It is a shallow support and not quite relevant for a stance change, but the momentum is what really matters.”
4mts chart
For a brief period, Nifty traded below the support level of 22295. Even on the lower timeframe we did not have a close below that level due to which a stance change is not required. Nifty managed to pull up and close above 22358 which is not a bad thing at all, but what was worrying is how NiftyIT traded today. Even from the start, the weakness in the IT sector was evident. NiftyIT ended the day -1.59% ~ 594 points. The major reason Nifty fell today was attributed to this weakness. There is something the IT sector knows that we don't. Look at how SPX (-0.89%), NDQ (-1.78%) are trading, a selected few people knew this in advance and started selling the tech sectors.
On the higher timeframe, the 3 red candles till the support level stands out. Even though the buying came today, it may not prove useful if we gap-down tomorrow. It all depends on how the US market closes today. Primarily, I need to spend some time to understand why the tech sectors are cooling off. News aside, the charts still shows no change in bullish stance, however if we open gap down tomorrow and that too below the 22295 levels we will immediately change stance to neutral. And if it breaks 22199, we would love to go short.
63mts chart
14 Feb ’24 Nifty flies like a kite today, Resistance quite nearNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: “On the 63mts chart, Nifty is still neutral with no clear indication of the next direction. BankNifty is bearish and the chances of Nifty going down may be higher due to that. The first target to break should be 21491 below which the bearish momentum will pick up an avalanche effect.”
4mts chart
Nifty does another impossible feat today, breaks yesterday’s swing low and then surges 341 points ~ 1.59% to close near the resistance level. Yesterday we were gearing up to go short today as every indicator pointed to a negative start with a bearish bias. The global macro was pretty bad as SPX closed at -1.37% as their CPI Inflation data came in hotter than expected. Market participants here were expecting Nifty to fall at least 200 points today, but look at what happened - we fell first trapping the bears, and then shot upwards creating an avalanche (but in the positive direction).
The price action made sense till 14.03 as it's quite normal for the indices to retrace and close the gap. But a surge of 234 points ~ 69% of the day’s swing range within the closing hours made no logic at all. We still believe it could be news/event-related and if yes - we may get to know it by tomorrow.
In the 63mts chart, see the encircled region - the strength of the green candles stands out prominently. This has given Nifty a total makeover, till yesterday we were neutral with a moderate bearish bias. Today we are still neutral but with a bullish bias - as the resistance of 21913 is much closer than the support of 21491. The interesting thing is that if the moves today were not news-related and is a technical reversal then the break of 21913 will ensure the ATH is also getting taken out.
63mts chart
S&P 500 LOOKING BEARISH S&p 500 index currently trading near its all time high, and perfectly made the evening star pattern at this strong resistance, looking positionally bearish.
Note :- Not any recommendation, just sharing my view for the s&p 500 index.
Do follow for more market updates.
#globalmarkets #s&p500
20 Jan ’24 — Will Quarterly results help the BankNifty bulls?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
For some or the other reason, the 4mts & 63mts charts are not visible on TradingView. It may be due to this unscheduled working day and they might be facing issues with data feeds from vendors. We had a bearish view yesterday also and despite BN ending the day today with 357pts ~ 0.78% we are still maintaining the bearish stance.
16mts chart
A shallow support and resistance zone has formed between 45609 and 46025. The first critical support is unchanged at 45399 and the critical resistance at 47465. BankNifty was single-handedly responsible for limiting the losses on Nifty today - so we need to give due credit for that. But take a look at the chart - The fall from 48000+ levels did not just come because HDFCBK had poor results, it may be unwinding by FIIs considering the fiscal policy changes or reforms expectations for Budget 2024. So even if we have super duper results like the KOTAKs and ICICIs - we may not scale up that quickly. Honestly, we prefer if BN could reclaim the ATHs and support Nifty to crawl back into the channel. The US market hit a new ATH yesterday - SPX and the mood is euphoric.