pankajarora232

pankajarora232

I have expected May 8th as the top of the pullback in this post: However, it seems that there were more legs pending. View still remains that this is a counter trend rally, and we will eventually head down again. We are in 3rd of C and we will get another move up in 5th, which should mark the end of the entire leg up. If I am invested in US markets - I would...

pankajarora232

So, thankfully we have been aligning are views with the market and reviewing counts at the right time. Lucky much? :) On May 2nd - We caught the top, when the breakout didn't look convincing We got a good correction (Correction was even better in stocks) and booked out at around 24k on May 9th, and changed views, again as the fall wasn't as bad as it was...

pankajarora232

Silver lagged Gold in the entire run up through the year However, in last week Silver held quite well, while Gold has been correcting. It seems like weekly Wave 4 is done and 1,2 of Wave 5 are done. Wave 3 - targets 1.1L, 1.15L. Wave 5 targets + 1.2L All the best!

pankajarora232

Well, Nifty is at a place that there are so many possibilities :) This one is in line with the previous one, where I had mentioned that 5 up is pending and 25k can come. I saw a few stocks making an expanded ED and turning, which gave the idea that Nifty could also be doing that. So, here it goes - we go up in an E - 24800 is top of the expanded ED - we might...

pankajarora232

I called a top on May 2nd as the buying looked like a trap - which usually acts as a good end of a trend move. It worked out quite well, but we didn't get a selling momentum, that I expected. So, contemplating if we are still in 4th and there's another leg up pending, which should be: 1. Bearish scenario - C of X - Y down should take us to new lows 2. Bullish...

pankajarora232

Here are the counts of the 5th of 5th that's going on. 108-110 should be max it goes. Target after this is 60k.

pankajarora232

BTC completing the pending 5th of 5th of 5th. God - this is going to be a painful correction. P.S.: There could still be some steam left, but once done we are looking for 60k again! All the best!

pankajarora232

SPX has pulled back in an ABC with 5th of C going on today. Good time to short and ride at least 10%, if lucky 15-20% :) All the best!

pankajarora232

We have had a good run-up from April lows. Today's buying seems like the last leg up which should end 5th up. Now there are two possibilities: 1. Bullish Scenario: Nifty has completed correction in April first week and we have done Wave 1 in an impulse of 5 waves up. In this case we should retrace 38-50% of the move from April lows. So, expect 500-1000 points in...

pankajarora232

TVS completed 5 Wave rise from March 2022 till Sep 2024, which fromed a major Wave 3. I would have ideally wanted Wave 4 to correct at least 38.2%, which did not happen. Now that stock is almost at ATH, it offers a good opportunity to explore a short with previous high as SL. The entire zig zag move from Jan lows can just be an X and we get a Y down till at least...

pankajarora232

Bajaj Finance has been in a sideways consolidation since Sep 2021, where it had completed a Major top from March 2009 lows (as per my counts). So, there are two Possibilities from here: P1. Major top -> sideways action -> Finall blow-out correction/ capitulation and then a start of next leg up. P2. Major top -> sideways consolidation for 4 years (till Jan 2025) ->...

pankajarora232

There are two possibilities in Gold. Possibility 1 shared in another post (Targets of Possibility 1: 0.236: $2056, 0.382: $2781) As per Possibility 2 the spike move up was 5th of 3 and hence we have just completed a 3rd Wave in weekly time frame - ending the move from Oct 2023 lows. In this case also, we can expect 0.382: 2850, 0.5: 2650. Gold went up on...

pankajarora232

There are two possibilities in Gold. Sharing my favored possibility here. Will share possibility 2 in another post. Gold went up on account of multiple reasons, key of which being de-dollarization and buying by Non US countries. However, my sense is that the spike in price was on account of trades from institutions, which will get unwound when price starts...

pankajarora232

Nifty Financial Services showed resilience in the entire fall and led the way up in recovery as it had a 5 of 3 up (from March 23 lows) pending, which got done in Nifty and most other indices in Dec 2023. Now it has completed that 4 and should lead on the way down. Expecting at least a 14% correction in index till 23150 (38.2% retracement). Next target will be...

pankajarora232

Gold has finally started it's last leg up, 5th of 5th on Weekly. This can go another 3-5% to 90600, 9100 or so, or maybe slightly higher, however, when it ends, we are looking for a sharp fall, as an extended 5th with short retracement in 4th doesn't end well. Lot of people would be trapped, and when it starts breaking levels it will create double pressure from...

pankajarora232

ABC up from recent low seems to be done. Also, we are in the range from where price had gapped down and broken last time So, it's time to be cautious. If we make another leg up, then we have 5 up which will be good and we can start taking longs on the next retracement. However, if we turn from here, we are going lower in E of E to 21500 or so.

pankajarora232

So we had a good 2 days of upside. I am changing the possibilities a bit: 1. Possibility 1 (Red): We are in larger Triangle (ABCDE - Red) E done and we have made a bottom. Wave 1 of next leg up seems done, we should expect a 2 now. 2. Possibility 2 (Blue): We are in a Larger ABC (Red) and C is further an ED (ABCDE - Blue). In that case the leg up of last 2 days...

pankajarora232

Confusion remains: Either bottom done in an ABC in E OR it's just 3rd wave in C3 done and 4th going on. Crossing 22800 should give confidence that it's not C3, and we could have made a bottom. All in all, stocks are doing well, Metals, PSEs, Capital goods etc are already breaking above the levels they were at when Nifty was at 23k.