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S&P 500 (SPX500)

11th Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem - US CPI spoils the play totallyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since its a holiday tomorrow, the view for Wednesday could be a bit complicated. Ideally, I wish to maintain the neutral stance as nothing has changed but how SPX behaves today and tomorrow also has to be considered.” It indeed became pretty complicated today, we directly jumped from below the resistance point to well over the support point i.e. below 19446 to above 19562. The gap-up was almost 212pts ~ 1.09%, the reason - Lesser than expected US CPI (Inflation data). In fact, the US CPI was only 10 basis points below the expectation, but it gave a feeling of “no more rate hikes” by FED. SPX ended yesterday with a gain of 1.91% and for the first time, I regret having a holiday in between. When there is news, technical analysis will go for a spin and if you have a holiday in between - it will be a tailspin. I had to change my stance from neutral to bullish in the opening minutes itself as it went above the resistance of 19562. Even though we had a tail in the opening 5mts candle, it ended up holding its ground. Nifty picked up some more strength as time passed by and we closed toward the high point of the day. On the 1hr chart, the next target to break will be 19776 which is just 100pts away. Something that is easily possible if SPX holds its ground today. Since most of the market participants are long-only, any upsurge will sweep in more market participants. To change my stance back to neutral, Nifty has to fall below 19562 and stay down tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
spx fake flag ? dont get trap4200 has confirmed as new base and good support for medium time frame (1h) after the retest price followed and formed higher high and higher low currently halting near 4400-4300 zone price seems to consolidate many of us looking it as flag and pole and will look to buy on trend continous as a fib retracement there is possible less probablity to gain good risk to reward on long side rather let price retrace from 4450 - 4460 zone and look for buy on pullback
CBOE:SPX
by Jimmy_Rebello
16th Oct ’23 - Flattish Day with no flavor - PostMortem on NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr pattern, the first thing I would like to do is change my stance from bullish to neutral. We have broken the 19776 support today and well above the 19446 zone. For Monday I wish to go with the neutral trades only and go short if we fall below 19614 in the forenoon session.” We started the day with a strong red candle, maybe the spillover effect as SPX had closed with a cut of 0.5% on Friday. We did not fall below 19614 so there was no question of going short. Interestingly we recovered 89pts by 11.45 and was trading with a tint of green. Markets were absolutely flat with no flavor, people who had deployed directional strategies would have felt asleep seeing the price action. Traders who went with non-directional strategies like the iron condor, iron fly or straddles/strangles would have hit the jackpot. In the last hour, we gave away 50pts - but nothing to worry about. Our VIX ended the day with 11.07 whereas US VIX is still at 17.61 even after a 9% collapse after SPX went green today. Lower VIX in Indian markets reflects the lack of fear or uncertainties - reiterating that it is a pathetic period to sell options thinking you can collect whatever premium is available. Selling low is not a good strategy - it is better to wait out or take a vacation if you are that impulsive. On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early - patience is gold. I personally prefer to see a fall and retest of the 19446 levels by this Thursday - that is the only way I know to drive up the VIX.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
13th Oct ’23 - Unseen Double V shape - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”For tomorrow I wish to continue my bullish stance if 19776 support is respected. If that breaks in the morning session, I would like to change my stance to neutral. If 19671 level breaks in the forenoon session — I would definitely go short as we may fall below the double-top formation.” Yes, you guessed it right by reading the title - I lost money both ways today. Firstly I went short because 19671 was broken. The short trade did not do well as we stopped falling. Secondly, we had a massive reversal - a total of 170pts intraday swing that really made my short position look like a sitting duck. To start with, I did not expect we would have an opening candle swing of negative 147pts ~ 0.75%. Agreed that US markets were weak yesterday and INFY results disappointed. Guess what? Infy ended the day with just -2.34% loss. The rates pre-open showed was negative 4% opening on INFY would have really put the pressure on Nifty to have that deep-cut opening. But levels are levels and we traders respect that - I had no other option but to go short. The only mistake I made was not having a safe long position on the CALL side as protection. There again I never thought we would be rallying back to go-green and then fall back. We had 2 V shapes today. The first reversal at 10.50 and the 2nd one at 14.25. I might have to test and find out what kind of trader made money today - A double V shape is normally not a Nifty50 phenomenon. On the 1hr pattern, the first thing I would like to do is change my stance from bullish to neutral. We have broken the 19776 support today and well above the 19446 zone. For Monday I wish to go with the neutral trades only and go short if we fall below 19614 in the forenoon session. Till then I am eagerly watching how SPX will close the day today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Short Term view on NIFTYToday nifty gap down from the resistance of value area (Range) and touched control value area or small range within big range's and acted as support for price and form doji. Because of Doji market is uncertain to predict because of Island reversal too. To increase the probability of the prediction that the market or trend reversed or not yet. price must have to fill the today's gap. Island reversals are strong reversal pattern. like on 5th Oct which gave strong support for the gap down of Israel - hamas war. Today's pattern is also Island Reversal. For Bullish view market must have to fill the today's gap first. NSE:NIFTY
NSE:NIFTYLong
by swaaapnil
SPX vs Nifty - A lot of pain ahead for India Stock MarketsSPX is down 6.07% from Sep whereas Nifty is only down 0.74%. If the coupling still exists and we think of US markets as the mother market - then further pain awaits Indian indices. There are 2 factors which could play spoilsport 1. Rising oil prices - going to cost dearly as we are a net oil importer 2. Rising dollar index - this will push down the INR much further If India finds a way to buy oil in rupees - problem solved. Nifty50 cannot remain elevated for so long if the global markets are falling. Remember - when the rise is higher, the fall will be higher. Or are the investors gung-ho on India's growth story?
SP:SPX
by viswaram
22 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - still shows weakness 🐻🐻🐻Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bearish stance with the first target at 19672 and the second but strong target at 19589. Ideally the bears should be able to close the day below 19589 tomorrow and take out the 19310 early next week. One thing to remember is Nifty50 is still not bearish on the daily time frame whereas SPX is.” I would say we had a flattish day today and a tight range. Nifty showed the tendency to fall but was eclipsed by BankNifty. There were 2 news events that took priority over the technical moves JP Morgan adding India to emerging market’s bond market (GBI-EM Global Diversified) Ministry of Finance - saying removal of I-CRR will give ample liquidity for banks We will discuss both of them below in our BankNifty analysis. But most importantly - when there are news flows - it will always take precedence over the technical analysis. Thats because stock markets are mainly news driven - the element of greed/fear is amplified when news breaks out. We discussed yesterday that the first target would be 19672, that was hit by 10.00 and things were looking quite promising for the bears. The pullback that started from there went on till 12.50 and would have given some respite for the bulls. However this did not last long and we came back to where it all started. Nifty closed the day with a loss of 0.34% ~ 68pts on what should have been a strong down day. Yesterday SPX closed at -1.64% loss and fell below the 2nd support line into a strong bearish territory. Compare that with India’s stock markets - we are still not there on the bearish scene. The major support is at 19310 which is another 1.8% away. Bears can still go into the weekend party seeing 3 red candles on the daily time frame. For Monday I wish to continue my bearish stance with the first target being 19563 and second 19484. If the momentum fades and we are unable to pick a direction in the opening 2 hours - I wish to change my stance to neutral to a wait and watch mode.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
21 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - 19589 has to be taken out 22ndNifty Weekly Analysis Nifty has fallen 354pts ~ 1.76% between the last expiry and today. Interestingly the price action on 15th and 18th stands out as an isolated island. Almost 90% of the fall came in the last 2 days which has even changed the sentiment. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For further down move we need that gap to be taken out on the downside just like how it was taken out on the upside. Only then the bears can bring the panic in the markets. Which translates into a 70pts+ gap down opening tomorrow. My stance has been changed from neutral to bearish with the first target 19815 and then 19747. If Nifty50 is unable to fall below 19895 in the morning session — I will have to change my stance back to neutral.” Everyday I write down the next day’s levels, targeted open, close etc - but never have I got it 100% right in the last many years. We had gap-down open and the encircled regions shows how the gaps were recreated on the downside just like we had it on the upside. Isolated islands are usually created when there are changes in sentiments overnight. Yesterday we had the FOMC meeting in the US and they decided to keep the interest rate as it is - source. What really unnerved the markets is their decision not to cut the rates till they win the battle against inflation. Ideally that is a negative global macro - and guess what our markets performed better than asian peers in spite of these news. You are already aware India - Canada tensions are rising and there was news about Halting Canadian Visa services. Still we fell only 0.8% ~ 159pts today. Japan fell -1.22%, China fell -1.24%, Hong Kong fell -1.45%, South Korea fell -1.75%. Our markets are in a different orbit of its own. On the 1hr chart - the weakness is visible - but the bears have not gained enough momentum. There is still no panic - VIX fell -2.79% @ 10.8175. Today’s price move is summarised in the first hourly candle - because the next 6 candles have not moved the needle by an inch. I am starting to doubt if the bulls have priced in all the information available? For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bearish stance with the first target at 19672 and the second but strong target at 19589. Ideally the bears should be able to close the day below 19589 tomorrow and take out the 19310 early next week. One thing to remember is Nifty50 is still not bearish on the daily time frame whereas SPX is.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram