Stockmarketanalysis
Market Phases - Every trader must knowMarket Phases -Stock prices may appear random, but there are repeating price cycles, which are predominantly driven by the market participation. Below are the four types of market phases that occur.
Phase 1: Accumulation - The accumulation phase is a stage of consolidation. There is no clear trend, and the stock is usually trading in a range. It's a span of time in which traders and institutions are slowly accumulating shares, but the market has not broke out yet. Trend traders finds difficulty to trade.
Phase 2: Advancing - During the advancing phase, price breaks out of range (comes out of the accumulation phase) and begins a sustained uptrend. This stage is when the price begins moving up. The big money has established a position and retail investors are now invited to join in the profit party. This is the most profitable time to own the stock – an opportunity to let your profits run.
Phase 3: Distribution - The distribution phase begins as the advancing phase ends and price enters another range period. The shares are being sold over a period of time—the opposite of accumulation. This time, the sellers want to maintain higher prices until the shares are sold.
Phase 4: Declining - During the declining phase, price breaks out of the range (comes out of the distribution phase) and begins downtrend. This stage comes after distribution when price begins moving down.
Now lets understand them one by one in detail :-
1.)Accumulation phase where trend traders find difficulty to trade
Accumulation usually occurs after a fall in prices and looks like a consolidation period.
Characteristics of accumulation phase:
It usually occurs when prices have fallen over the last 6 months or more
It can last anywhere from months to even years
It looks like a long period of consolidation during a downtrend
Price is contained within a range as bulls & bears are in equilibrium
The ratio of up days to down days are pretty much equal
The 200-day moving average tends to flatten out after a price decline
Price tends to whip back and forth around the 200-day moving average
Volatility tends to be low due to the lack of interest
Examples of Accumulation -
How To Trade Accumulation ??
1.)Sell At Resistance
2.)Buy At Support
Do not go blindly short at resistance, wait for any reversal candle or look for any negative price action in smaller TF. Look for reversal candles
Never buy blindly on support. Look for reversal candles. Switch to smaller Time-frame find a bullish price action/ bullish chart patterns.
Never Ever Trade At Midpoint In A Range Market. You never no where it will head, to the the support area or to the resistance area.
2.)Advancing phase which trend traders love — Best trading strategy is to long the uptrend
After price breaks out of the accumulation phase, it goes into an advancing phase (an uptrend) and consists of higher highs and lows.
Characteristics of advancing phase:
It usually occurs after price breaks out of accumulation phase
It can last anywhere from months to even years
Price forms a series of higher highs and higher lows
Price is trading higher over time
There are more up days than down days
Short term moving averages are above long-term moving averages (e.g. 50 above 200-day ma)
The 200-day moving average is pointing higher
Price is above the 200-day moving average
Volatility tends to be high at the late stage of advancing phase due to strong interest
Examples of Advancing
How To Trade Advancing ??
1.)Breakout Trading - Where you above the highs
2.)Pullback Trading - Where you buy support which was earlier a resistance. This is called change in polarity.
Avoid Trading against the trend. If you trade then take small profits. You will get max with the trend.
3.)Distribution phase- - Distribution usually occurs after a rise in prices and looks like a consolidation period.
Characteristics of distribution phase:
It usually occurs when prices have risen over the last 6 months or more
It can last anywhere from months to even years
It looks like a long period of consolidation during an uptrend
Price is contained within a range as bulls & bears are in equilibrium
The ratio of up days to down days are pretty much equal
The 200-day moving average tends to flatten out after a price decline
Price tends to whip back and forth around the 200-day moving average
Volatility tends to be high because it has captured the attention of most traders
Examples of Distribution :-
How To Trade Distribution ??
1.)Sell On Resistance
2.)Buy On Support
Do not go blindly short at resistance, wait for any reversal candle or look for any negative price action in smaller TF. Look for reversal candles
Never buy blindly on support. Look for reversal candles. Switch to smaller Time-frame find a bullish price action/ bullish chart patterns.
Never Ever Trade At Midpoint In A Range Market. You never no where it will head, to the the support area or to the resistance are.
4.Declining phase - Best trading strategy is to short the downtrend
After price breaks down of the distribution phase, it goes into a declining phase (a downtrend) and consists of lower highs and lows.
This is the stage where traders who do not cut their loss become long-term investors.
Characteristics of declining phase:
It usually occurs after price breaks out of distribution phase
It can last anywhere from months to even years
Price forms a series of lower highs and lower lows
Price is trading lower over time
There are more down days than up days
Short term moving averages are below long-term moving averages (e.g. 50 below 200-day ma)
The 200-day moving average is pointing lower
Price is below the 200-day moving average
Volatility tends to be high due to panic and fear in the markets
Examples of declining :-
How To Trade Declining ??
1.)Breakdown Trading - Where you sell below the lows
2.)Pullback Trading - Where you sell on rise after a breakdown. Supports turned into resistance. This is called change in polarity.
Avoid Trading against the trend. If you trade then take small profits. You will get max with the trend.
Hope you all learnt from this post. Share with the community if you liked it.
Regards
Omahto
HDFC: Inverse H&S BreakoutInverse Head and Shoulders
This pattern forms after an extensive downside rally. It consists of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder. The left shoulder is formed after a big bear rally in which the volumes are quite large.
At the end of the left shoulder, a minor correction takes place on the upside which happens on the low volumes comparatively the starting of the left shoulder. After this again a down move can be seen on large volumes forming a head having its bottom is below the left shoulder following an upmove correction on lower volumes & completing the head.
The completion of the head must be above the top of the left shoulder. If the prices rise above the top of the left shoulder then too this pattern remains intact. In the end, the right shoulder is formed usually on smaller volumes comparatively the previous two rallies.
Now if you connect the tops of the left shoulder, head & the right shoulder there will be a formation of the ‘Neckline‘. This line will act as a decision line. If the prices break this neckline & give closing above the line, this will be the confirmation of the breakout of the Inverse head and shoulders pattern.
However, it has been noticed that after breaking of the neckline the prices again attracted towards this neckline. We say this phenomenon as a retest of the neckline which will add some more confidence while trading this pattern.
After retesting if the prices again start rising, this will be the final confirmation of the up move as shown above.
The bookish target of this pattern is taken as the vertical price range from the bottom of the head to the neckline & the bookish Stop loss should be the bottom of the right shoulder. However this stop loss can be big, so it is advised to keep a stop loss of 4-5% of the price range below the neckline.
TRADING STRATEGY:
Buy near 2450 zone with SL of 2230 and look for the target of 2650/2800-2850 zone.
Titan looks good for intraday short tradeTitan has been trading in a range for the past few trading sessions.
RSI and MACD are indicating weakness.
Keep it simple. Two levels are marked. the trade will be activated once it breaks the nearest 30m candles low marked on the chart.
It's always good to wait for confirmation. If it goes as expected and the price breaks the lower line, wait for it to retrace close to the line and fall again.
Ideal setup for swing trade with multiple buy signals - AlcargoRead the chart from left to right for a clear understanding.
Stock: Allcargo
Trade type – Swing
Buy level: 348.10 (above breakout candle)
SL: 318.75 (below the breakout candle)
Target: 398
Risk/Reward ratio: 1.7
The setup uses price action and two indicators – RSI & MACD for confirmation of the signal.
Chart formed a Gap on 02nd November. Gaps are formed due to strong buying/selling interest. These gaps are considered to act as strong support levels on the chart.
Rationale behind the bullish view:
- Price recently took support at the gap range and reversed its direction and started making higher highs and higher lows.
- The latest Strong green candle accompanied by good volumes broke out above the previous high.
- Price making lower lows but RSI making higher lows. This is a positive divergence indicating buying interest
- RSI above 55 and trading above its EMA indicates buying strength.
- MACD crossed over the signal line confirming the trend.
Taking the trade:
- The buy level is slightly above the breakout candle. The buy trade can be executed on an hourly timeframe if the price sustains above the breakout candle high.
- If the trade works out as expected, Although the target and SL are fixed in this trade, both should be shifted up when the price makes a higher high and higher low.
- Strict stop loss should always be followed for risk management.
This is not a buy/sell recommendation. I'm posting my analysis here to track it and to learn from the community.
Follow me if you like my analysis. More detailed trades coming up.
Nifty Bank next moves on 25MAR2022Black trendline crossed As I mentioned earlier chart which is attached below and Redline is another major diagonal trendline.
I'm on the Bullish side at this level, But I still can't decide exactly what the market will do.
If the market starts with a green candle it may retest to 35375, wait to reject confirmation candle to go upside or
if it crosses down this red line then it may reach to 35067
The above analysis is my view only. The market can turn any side anytime, depending on several factors so protective play is always safe.
Anyway, stay alert to come out if you are going to lose.
Never take risk all your Capital, Try to stay in the game by protecting your capital. Hope never makes you win, only Technicals and your mindset makes you win.
Note: I'm not a financial advisor or registered analyst please follow the expert's ideas also before you trade.
If you like or win from my idea please like and comment to encourage. Ask me if you want any chart analysis.
Will BPCL follow the Symmetrical Triangle Pattern?BPCL, one of the highest dividend payout stocks, forms the symmetrical triangle. The stock taking support at the monthly trendline with higher volumes compared to the last month. Oil price increase may be one of the reason behind this. Let's see whether it respects the trendline or not. What's your thought on this?
Live Challenging Stock Market Analysis Buy IIFLSEC @ 72.70Live Challenging Stock Market Analysis Buy IIFLSEC @ 72.70
Target1 @ 90.50
Buy2 @ 67.65
Target 1&2 @ 133.85
#stockmarket #IIFLSEC #sharemarket
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Trade signals would usually have a risk to reward ratio of 1:2.
It means that even 2 out of 4 signals hits their SL marks, the other two would have closed with profit.
This allows you to be good in overall pips profit.
Signals are usually inter-day (Based on the daily candle) therefore, trades would usually have a holding time of an average minimum of 24 hours.
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Note: Please leave comments for any query.
Disclaimer: This is my trading experience, it is not an invite or recommendation to trade.
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Forex Tamil
BANKNIFTY READY FOR NEXT MOVEBNF Retracement almost near completion. Clossing is above .5 Fib level
Max we can expect till 35936( Below same the rally will have minimum effect for trend progress)
36k is strong psychological level nd we can see huge PUT writting.
Above 36200 we can see bnf moving till 36600
Idea invalid below 35900
Bullish Setup in EASY TRIP PLannersStock Name - EASY TRIP PLanners. As per the ichimoiku rule, today's close is above the Conversion Line and future kumo
is super bullish and chikou span is slanting upwards. All these parameters are showing the further strength &
More strength will be visible once it will cross 365. Worth to keep in watch list for coming days
#This is not Buy and Sell recommendation to any one. This is for education purpose and a helping hand to learn trading in Market.
# Rule Based Investing
# Ichimoku Cloud
# Ichimoku Followers
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HAL - Triangle Breakout but still within Box!After accumulating within a Darvas Box since August 2021 and a further Triangle since October 2021, Hindustan Aeronautics has given a breakout of the Triangle which is also currently being re-tested.
HAL is fundamentally a strong play for the long-run. On the technical side, riskier traders may enter on this Triangle re-test at CMP and hold for breakout of the rectangle as well. Safer traders may consider entering upon breakout of the rectangle (above 1490).