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Tata Power & Tata Communications: Dynamic Duo Poised for UpswingTata Power The stock has shown a significant upward trend, reached at the 460 level, where it encountered strong resistance. As a result, the price pulled back and found support around the 405 level, entered a consolidation phase. During this phase, a Pole & Flag pattern developed on the chart, and with a recent breakout supported by robust trading volume, the stock is primed for further upward movement. Tata Communications Overall, the price is on an upward trajectory, consistently making higher highs and lows. After hitting an all-time high close to the 2070 level, the price faced a notable rejection, resulted in a sharp decline followed by a consolidation phase. During this period, an Ascending Triangle pattern developed, and the stock has recently achieved a successful breakout. The current price action indicates that the stock is poised for another significant rally.
NSE:TATAPOWERLong
by GoodluckCapital
ICICI Bank & M_M See Significant Open Interest GrowthICICI Bank The current stock price is navigating through an ascending parallel channel, demonstrating a strong upward trend characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the price has successfully breached the upper boundary of the parallel channel and is attempting to maintain its position above this breakout level. A significant rise in future open interest—approximately 27%—has been observed for this stock. This increase in both the stock price and future open interest suggests that major investors are optimistic regarding this stock. As long as the price stays above the 1300 level, the overall sentiment is expected to remain positive. Mahindra & Mahindra The stock is experiencing a robust upward trend, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. During this upward movement, the price has formed a bullish Pole & Flag pattern. Recently, following a notable breakout accompanied by substantial trading volume, the stock has reached its all-time high. Additionally, there has been a significant increase in future open interest, which has risen by nearly 16%. This growth in both the stock price and future open interest indicates that major investors are confident about this stock.
NSE:ICICIBANKLong
by GoodluckCapital
3
Greenply vs Greenpanel: A Clash of Plywood and MDF Giants!About Companies Greenply Industries NSE:GREENPLY is a prominent player in the plywood industry, dedicated to the production and trade of plywood and its associated products. Their extensive range features plywood, block board, wood flooring, medium density fiberboard, flush doors, and decorative veneers. Founded in 1984 by Shiv Prakash Mittal, the company operates out of Kolkata, India. In 2018, Greenpanel Industries NSE:GREENPANEL emerged as a separate entity from Greenply Industries, concentrating on the manufacturing of MDF boards and related products. Their product lineup includes wood flooring, veneers, flush doors, and more. Market Capitalization ● Greenply Industries - ₹ 4,751 Cr. ● Greenpanel Industries - ₹ 4,849 Cr. Technical Aspects Greenply ● The monthly chart reveals that the stock price encountered significant resistance around the 340 mark, resulting in a sharp decline that brought it down to the 70 level, where it found support. ● After an extented phase of consolidation, the stock formed a Double Bottom pattern. ● Once this pattern broke out, the price surged upward, and nearly 6.5 years later, in July 2024, the stock successfully broke through the previous resistance zone. ● Having maintained its position above this breakout level, the stock price is poised for further gains. Greenpanel ● After reaching a remarkable high close to 625, the stock faced a considerable downturn. ● It later found a solid support at the 260 level, which set the stage for its recovery. ● Nevertheless, the stock ran into resistance around the 430 mark, caused another retreat to the previous support zone. ● Currently, with a fresh upward trend, the price exhibits significant growth potential. Revenue Breakdown ● Greenply Industries generates a remarkable 77.4% of its total revenue from plywood and associated products, establishing itself as a dominant player with a 26% market share in the domestic plywood sector. ● In contrast, Greenpanel Industries focuses heavily on MDF boards, which make up an astounding 91% of its total sales, securing a 21% market share in the domestic MDF industry. Sales & Profit Analysis ● Greenply ➖ In the last three years, this company has experienced an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 23% in sales. ➖ However, profit growth has been modest, increased by only 3% during the same period. ➖ The company currently holds an operating profit margin of 9%, which is deemed acceptable. ➖ In the fiscal year 2024, earnings per share have dropped to 5.44, down from 7.44 in FY2023. ● Greenpanel ➖ Over the past three years, this company has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 15% in sales. ➖ In contrast, profit growth has been exceptional, soaring at a 26% CAGR during the same period. ➖ Currently, the company boasts an operating profit margin of 16%, a noteworthy figure. ➖ However, in fiscal year 2024, earnings per share have declined to 11.64, down from 20.92 in FY2023. Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ Greenply Industries currently has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 48.75, which is marginally above its 1-year median PE of 48.1, yet it aligns closely with the industry average PE of 48.75. ➖ On the other hand, Greenpanel Industries shows a current PE of 33.94, indicating it may be overvalued relative to its 1-year median PE of 25.2, but it appears undervalued when compared to the industry PE of 48.75. ● P/B Ratio ➖ Greenply has a PB ratio of 6.69, suggesting it is considerably overvalued. ➖ However, Greenpanel Industries has a PB ratio of 3.68, which, although somewhat high, does not indicate overvaluation. ● Intrinsic Value ● Greenply is presently valued at ₹984, a figure that is approximately 2.4 times its intrinsic worth of ₹158. This suggests that the stock is currently overvalued. ● Conversely, Greenpanel has a market price of ₹395, roughly 1.5 times its intrinsic value of ₹259, which similarly indicates that this stock is also overvalued at this time. Product Demand analysis (Plywood vs MDF) ● Greenply presently has an inventory turnover ratio of 4.2, an improvement from 3.96 three years ago. ● In comparison, Greenpanel Industries shines with a current inventory turnover ratio of 5.08, a substantial increase from 3.71 three years earlier. ● These figures clearly indicate a rising demand for MDF products, highlighting a promising trend in the market. Company Capex ● Greenply has significantly reduced its capital expenditure, slashing it to 123 crore from last year's 412 crore, indicating a lack of a robust capex program. ● In contrast, Greenpanel has made a remarkable leap in its capital investments, raising its capex to 344 crore from just 80 crore in the previous financial year. Debt Analysis ● Greenpanel Industries stands strong with a manageable debt of 296 crores and a favorable debt to equity ratio of 0.22, indicating that debt is not a concern for the company. With an impressive interest coverage ratio of 16, Greenpanel is well-equipped to handle its loan repayments without any issues. ● Other side, Greenply Industries carries a higher debt burden of 549 crores, reflected in a debt to equity ratio of 0.77. With an interest coverage ratio of only 3.33, the company may face challenges in meeting its loan repayment obligations. Cashflow Analysis ● Greenply has experienced an impressive increase in its operating cash flow, jumping to 111 crore from a mere 62 crore in FY23. ● Greenpanel Industries has struggled to convert its profits into cash, with its operating cash flow declined significantly to 135 crore from 337 crore in FY2023. Shareholding Pattern ● Greenply ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are dramatically raising their investments. In the latest June quarter, their stake has surged to 4.91%, a notable increase from just 2.15% in June 2023. ➖ Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) currently hold 30.33% as of the June quarter, down from 32.41% last year. ● Greenpanel ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are consistently divesting their positions in this stock, with their current ownership now at a mere 2.12%, a significant drop from 4.3% a year ago ➖ In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are steadily boosting their investments, with their current stake rising to 26.71%, up from 21.60% in June 2023. Some Important Facts ● Shifting Demand From Plywood to MDF ➖ Worldwide, the consumption ratio of MDF to plywood stands at 80:20; however, in India, this ratio is notably reversed, with plywood dominating at 20:80 as of 2022. ➖ Industry experts predict that by 2030, this ratio in India will shift to an even 50:50. ➖ This shift indicates significant growth opportunities for the MDF sector in India, particularly as it is poised to capture a larger share of the low and medium-grade plywood market, which currently makes up 85% of the plywood industry in the country. MDF Industry Growth Drivers ● Growth of Online Home Décor Platforms ➖ The growth of online home décor platforms like Pepper Fry, Fab Furbish, and Urban Ladder has increased the need for ready-to-assemble (RTA) furniture, impacting the MDF industry directly. ● Reduction in Furniture Cycle Time ➖ The increasing popularity of stylish, comfortable furniture crafted from MDF has significantly reduced the home renovation timeline, slashing it from the previous 15 to 20 years down to just 7 to 8 years. ● Cost Advantage Over Plywood ➖ MDF is much cheaper than plywood because it is made from leftover wood materials, both hardwood and softwood. Conclusion ➖ After examining all the factors, it appears that the MDF industry is poised for significant growth in the near future, outpacing the Plywood sector. As a result, companies such as Greenpanel Industries are likely to reap substantial benefits, which will have a direct positive effect on their share prices.
NSE:GREENPANELLong
by GoodluckCapital
2
Angleone is destined to stage a comeback!Technical Analysis (Weekly Timeframe) ● The stock had previously consolidated and established a Rounding Bottom pattern. ● Following the breakout, the price surged, hitting an impressive all-time high of 3,880. ● However, it then began to decline, ultimately dropping to the support level around 2,000. ● A robust rebound from this support, accompanied by significant volume, indicates that the stock is poised for another upward movement. ● The potential targets to watch for are: ➖ 1st Target - 3,400 level ➖ 2nd Target - 3,880 level. Technical Analysis (Daily Timeframe) ● The daily chart reveals that following the breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern, the price is currently in a consolidation phase, poised for a significant upward movement. ● The trading volume has surged notably in recent days, signalling that big market participants are showing keen interest. Technical Indicators (Daily Timeframe) RSI ● Current RSI of this stock is 61.37, which indicates the strength of buyers. MACD ● MACD line has crossed over the signal line from the below, indicates a robust bullish momentum is in play. ADX & DI ● ADX value surpassing 20 with +DI positioned above the -DI, indicates the strength of the trend.
NSE:ANGELONELong
by GoodluckCapital
Dixon & Bajaj-Auto Showing High Rise in Future OIDIXON Following a significant upward trend, the stock price experienced a correction and later established a Double Bottom pattern. Recently, a breakout occurred, backed by strong volume, suggesting that the price is set for further gains. Additionally, a notable increase in future open interest—nearly 11%—has been recorded. This rise in both stock price and future open interest signals that big investors are optimistic about this stock. As long as the price remains above the 12,900 level, the overall sentiment is likely to stay positive. BAJAJ-AUTO During the upward movement, the price experienced a brief consolidation phase, resulted in the formation of a Rounding Bottom pattern. Recently, a breakout occurred, supported by significant volume, suggested that the stock price is poised to maintain its upward trajectory. Moreover, there has been a remarkable surge in future open interest, climbed nearly 19%. This increase in both the stock price and future open interest indicates that big investors are bullish about this stock. As long as the price remains above the 10,000 level, the overall sentiment is likely to stay positive.
NSE:BAJAJ_AUTOLong
by GoodluckCapital
1
SHYAMMETL & RPSGVENT - Cup & Handle Breakout!!SHYAMMETL Following an upward trend, the stock price encountered resistance around the 740 level, resulting in a correction that brought the price down to the 530 level, where it established support. Subsequently, the price entered a consolidation phase before successfully breaking through its trendline resistance. With a surge, the stock price climbed back to its previous resistance level but faced rejection once more. After a period of consolidation just below this resistance level, the price ultimately broke out with significant volume support. During this time, a cup & handle pattern emerged, and with this breakout, that pattern was also surpassed. If the price can hold above this breakout point, we could witness another rally in the days ahead. RPSGVENT After a tough rejection around the 840 level, the price started to decline. Once it successfully broke through the trendline resistance, the stock price jumped back to its earlier resistance level but was rejected again. After a period of consolidation just beneath that resistance level, the price has finally made a breakthrough recently, supported by substantial volume. A cup and handle pattern formed during this period, and with the breakout, that pattern was also exceeded. If the price remains above this breakout level, there could be more upward movement.
NSE:SHYAMMETLLong
by GoodluckCapital
BALRAMCHINI & MPHASIS Showing High Rise in Future OIBalrampur Chini The stock price saw a notable decline after dropping beneath the Rising Wedge pattern. Subsequently, it entered an extended phase of consolidation, during which it formed an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. After the breakout, the price surged initially but then experienced a short consolidation period before breaking out again. This movement also shows a breakout from the Rounding Bottom pattern, which is allowing the stock price to go up even higher. Mphasis The stock price is currently in a strong consolidation phase. The chart shows that an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern is developing, suggesting that this phase might end soon and the price could rise after a major breakout. To see an upward movement, the price needs to break through the 3,100 level and stay above it.
NSE:BALRAMCHINLong
by GoodluckCapital
Federal Bank vs Karur Vysya Bank: Which is the bettr investment?The Bank Nifty NSE:BANKNIFTY stands at the 50,500 level, reflecting a decline of approximately 5.3% from its all-time high. When evaluating private banks, HDFC NSE:HDFCBANK , Axis NSE:AXISBANK , ICICI NSE:ICICIBANK , and Kotak Mahindra NSE:KOTAKBANK typically emerge as top contenders for investment. However, in the mid to small-cap arena, Federal Bank and Karur Vysya Bank have shown remarkable resilience and performance over the past few months, outpacing the broader banking sector. Let’s delve into some crucial factors that can guide us in determining the most promising investment opportunity at this moment! Market Capitalization ● Federal Bank NSE:FEDERALBNK - ₹ 49,883 Cr. ● Karur Vysya Bank NSE:KARURVYSYA - ₹ 17,459 Cr. Relative Strength ● The chart clearly illustrates that the Bank Nifty has delivered an impressive return on investment of approximately 15% over the past year. However, Federal Bank and Karur Vysya Bank have far surpassed this figure, achieving remarkable returns of around 54% and 82%, respectively. This indicates that these two banks are currently excelling far beyond the overall bank index. Cost of Liabilities ● The liabilities cost for Karur Vysya Bank is at 4.8%, notably lower than Federal Bank's 5.14%. This indicates that Karur Vysya Bank has a greater ability to secure funds compared to Federal Bank. CASA Ratio ● The CASA ratio, which measures the proportion of deposits in current and savings accounts to total deposits, is a crucial indicator for banks. A higher CASA ratio signifies a reduced cost of funds, as banks typically do not pay interest on current account deposits, and the interest rates on savings accounts are generally quite low, around 3-4%. ● In this instance, the CASA ratios stand at 30.39% for Karur Vysya Bank and 29.56% for Federal Bank, highlighting Karur Vysya Bank's superior position over Federal Bank. Non-performing Asset (NPA) Analysis ● Over the past four years, the net non-performing assets (NPA) for these two banks have seen a remarkable decline. ● In the latest quarter, Karur Vysya Bank reports a net NPA of just 0.4, while Federal Bank follows closely with a net NPA of 0.6. Total Provisions ● Discussing the NPA without considering the overall provisions presents an incomplete picture. Both banks have experienced a notable decline in this crucial factor. ● For Federal Bank, the total provisioning for FY24 is only 196 crore, a stark reduction from 750 crore in FY23. Similarly, Karur Vysya Bank's total provisioning for FY24 stands at 728 crore, down from 1,039 crore in FY23. Net Interest Margins (NIM) ● Karur Vysya Bank boasts a superior net interest margin (NIM) of 3.75, significantly outpacing the Federal Bank's NIM of 2.87. ● A NIM below 3 is generally viewed as unfavorable for banks. highlighting the strength of Karur Vysya Bank in this key metric. Advances Growth (%) Analysis ● An increase in advances growth signifies a bank's ability to efficiently provide loans. The 20.4% rise in advances for Federal Bank surpasses the 16.68% growth seen at Karur Vysya Bank, showcasing a more robust lending capability. Valuation ● PE Ratio ➖Federal Bank's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 12.4, which exceeds its 1-year median PE of 9.0. Compared to the industry average PE of 11.83, this suggests that the stock is not excessively overvalued. ➖On the other hand, Karur Vysya Bank has a current PE of 10.2, which is marginally above its 1-year median PE of 9.8. Given the industry PE of 11.83, this indicates that Karur Vysya Bank is significantly undervalued. ➖When analyzing the PE ratios, it becomes clear that Karur Vysya Bank holds a more advantageous position. ● Intrinsic Value ➖The Federal Bank is currently trading at ₹204, while its intrinsic value stands at ₹228, indicating that the stock is undeniably undervalued at this time. ➖On the other hand, Karur Vysya Bank's market price is ₹217, but with an intrinsic value of only ₹146, it clearly shows that the stock is currently overvalued. Technical Aspects ● From a technical standpoint, both stocks exhibit a similar pattern and appear to be currently overextended. Any pullbacks could provide a valuable opportunity to take positions. Conclusion ● Upon evaluating all the key factors, it is evident that Karur Vysya Bank NSE:KARURVYSYA is in a more advantageous position than Federal Bank NSE:FEDERALBNK ; however, this does not imply that Federal Bank is struggling. Both banks offer promising investment prospects. As the economy grows, a fundamentally strong bank is expected to consistently surpass the overall banking sector.
NSE:FEDERALBNK
by GoodluckCapital
3
WOCKPHARMA: W pattern breakout may drive the price higher! The 1700-1800 range has acted as a formidable barrier for this stock, with the price faced rejection at these levels on two separate occasions. After experiencing a significant downturn, the price eventually found support around the 135 level, led the price to a period of consolidation. During this time, the stock developed a Double Bottom pattern. Following a substantial gap, it successfully broke out of the Double Bottom pattern with strong trading volume and is now positioned just above that breakout level. At present, the stock is trading at nearly half its all-time high, making it an appealing option right now.
NSE:WOCKPHARMALong
by GoodluckCapital
2
Cera is on a bull run, chart indicates further rise in price!Weekly Chart The stock has been experiencing a strong upward trend, consistently pushing its highs and lows to new heights. We've noticed that the bullish pole and flag pattern appeared twice in a row, indicated a solid presence of buyers in this stock. Recently, a breakout occurred on the weekly chart with high trading volume, suggesting that the price is set to rise again. Daily Chart Following a notable rejection around the 9,600 mark, the stock experienced a considerable correction. The formation of a Double Bottom pattern signaled a reversal in the downtrend, leading to a robust upward movement. This impressive rally brought the price back to its former resistance level, but it struggled to break through, leading to a period of consolidation just beneath that threshold. In an unexpected turn, the stock gapped up and successfully surpassed its immediate resistance, maintaining its position above this critical level. With trading volume on the rise, there is a promising outlook for a significant upward surge in the stock price.
NSE:CERALong
by GoodluckCapital
Big Breakout Alert! Negative Momentum in GODREJPROP & ESCORTSGODREJPROP The stock's price has been following an upward trend within a parallel channel. Recently, the stock broke through the lower boundary of the channel with a powerful bearish candle. With pessimistic market sentiment, it is anticipated that the stock price will continue to correct, presenting a chance to take a short position. ESCORTS Following the emergence of the bullish Pole & Flag pattern, the stock experienced a significant upward surge backed by robust momentum. After reaching an all-time high close to the 4,400 level, the stock retraced and eventually formed a Double Top pattern signaling a potential bearish trend. A recent breach of the pattern's neckline to the downside suggests further downside potential for the stock.
NSE:GODREJPROPShort
by GoodluckCapital
DIVISLAB and CHAMBLFERT showing high rise in Future OIDIVISLAB The price has been stuck in a tight range for over a year. Then it broke through its resistance level. Since then, the price has stayed above that point and is rising steadily. A breakout has occurred, and the stock price continues to climb CHAMBLFERT The stock price was gradually rising within a parallel channel. After breaking out of the channel, there was a significant price surge followed by a period of consolidation. Now, the price is attempting to surpass its resistance and continue moving upwards.
NSE:DIVISLABLong
by GoodluckCapital
Momentum Trading Picks - Alembic Pharma & Quess Corp.Alembic Pharma The stock encountered several rejections around the 1,130 level, leading to a significant correction in price. Eventually, it found support near the 460 level and began to climb upwards. During this upward movement, a Bullish Pole & Flag pattern emerged in the stock price chart, suggesting a potential continuation of the trend. Following a breakout, the price trended upwards with a minor pullback before recently achieving a breakthrough with strong volume support. Quess Corp The price had been trending upwards within a parallel channel until it broke below, leading to a correction. After that, the stock underwent a consolidation phase before gradually moving upwards. A reversal in the downtrend was indicated by the formation of an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern during this period. The recent strong breakout suggests that the price is poised to continue its upward movement.
NSE:APLLTDLong
by GoodluckCapital
4
ONGC Witnesses a Multiyear Breakout - What's Next? When analyzing the monthly chart, it's clear that the stock price has experienced numerous fluctuations. In June '14, the stock reached a high near 315 level before taking a sharp downturn. By March 2020, the stock price had plummeted to just 50 INR. However, from that point, the stock began a strong upward movement with significant volume increase. An ascending triangle pattern appeared on the chart, and the price successfully broke through the pattern to continue its upward trend. Ultimately, the stock managed to surpass its previous resistance. As long as it maintains above the 300 level, the price is likely to continue its upward trajectory.
NSE:ONGCLong
by GoodluckCapital