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Breakout Blitz: 3 Stocks to Supercharge Your Portfolio◉ Affle (India) NSE:AFFLE ● In the midst of an upward trend, the stock previously formed a Rounding Bottom pattern, and after a breakout, the price experienced a significant surge. ● However, around the 1,715 level, the stock encountered substantial resistance, leading to a decline followed by a period of consolidation. ● Recently, another Rounding Bottom pattern has been developed, and with a recent breakthrough, the stock is now trading at an all-time high, with expectations for continued growth. ◉ KFin Technologies NSE:KFINTECH ● The stock price is evidently trending upward, characterized by a succession of higher highs and higher lows. ● After effectively breaking out of the Rounding Bottom pattern, the stock saw a significant increase, approaching its previous all-time high around the 1,190 level. ● However, it encountered substantial resistance at that point, leading to a pullback and a subsequent consolidation phase. ● Now, following a recent breakout, the stock has positioned itself above the breakout zone and is ready for a potential upward rally. ◉ EID Parry NSE:EIDPARRY ● After a period of consolidation, the stock price has developed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. ● Following the breakout, the price initially climbed sharply but soon entered a significant consolidation phase, resulting in the formation of a Broadening pattern. ● Currently, the stock has achieved a breakthrough and is set to enjoy additional gains.
NSE:AFFLELong
by GoodluckCapital
Thangamayil shining: The strong financials caused a price surge!Company Overview Thangamayil Jewellery Limited (TMJL) is a rapidly growing company in India with a chain of retail jewellery stores in Tamil Nadu. They specialize in selling Gold, Silver, Diamonds, and Platinum, with gold being the main source of income. The majority of their ornaments are purchased from dealers in states like Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala, and West Bengal for sale in their stores. Established in 1947, Thangamayil is headquartered in Madurai, India. Market Capitalization ● Current Market Cap - ₹ 5,128 Cr. ● Market Cap 3-years back - ₹ 802 Cr. ● The figures indicate that the company has increased over six times in the past three years, which is truly remarkable. Revenue & Profit Growth ● In the last three years, this stock has demonstrated an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 28% in its sales figures. ● Meanwhile, the total profit growth during this period has been a modest 12%. ● The company has successfully maintained a operating profit margin of 6%, which has risen from 4% in FY24. ● For the fiscal year 2024, the earnings per share have seen a remarkable increase, soaring from 29.10 in fiscal year 2023 to 44.91. Increasing Product Demand ● Inventory Turnover Ratio ➖ This ratio typically assists in determining whether the growth in sales is primarily due to rising product prices or if it is also influenced by increased demand for the product. ➖ Current Inventory Turnover - 3.14 ➖ Inventory Turnover 3 years ago - 2.63 ➖ These figures indicate that product demand has risen over the past three years. Valuation ● P/E Ratio The company's present price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 42.3, significantly higher than its 1-year median PE of 31. When we look at the industry average PE of 31.6, it indicates that the stock might be considered somewhat overvalued at this time. ● PEG Ratio The company has a PEG ratio of 1.3, indicating that its current P/E ratio is valid. ● Intrinsic Value ➖ Thangamayil Jewellery is currently trading at ₹1870, which is nearly 2.5 times its intrinsic value of ₹764, indicating that the stock is overvalued at this moment. ➖ When we compare Thangamayil to its competitors, such as Titan and Kalyan Jewellers, some interesting insights emerge. Titan's current market price (CMP) stands at ₹3560, which is nearly 5.5 times its intrinsic value of ₹652. Meanwhile, Kalyan Jewellers has a CMP of ₹545, approximately 4.7 times its intrinsic value of ₹115. ➖ These numbers don't necessarily indicate that Titan and Kalyan Jewellers are overvalued; rather, they suggest that Thangamayil could be an attractive investment choice. Debt Analysis ● Debt to Equity Ratio ➖ The company carries a debt of approximately ₹532 Cr., resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.08. ➖ When discussing debt, it's important to note that for a small-cap company, this isn't necessarily a major concern. The key factor to consider is whether the company can consistently meet its loan interest payments. ➖ To assess this, we should examine the interest coverage ratio. ● Interest Coverage Ratio With an interest coverage ratio of 5.62, it’s evident that the company is well-equipped to manage its loan interest payments regularly. Cash Flow Analysis ● Operating cash flow has seen a remarkable surge, soaring to 330 crore from just 10 crore in FY23. ● The CFO/PAT ratio is currently at 0.74 of the five-year average, indicating that the company is quite proficient at converting its profits into cash. Shareholding Pattern ● The promoters have maintained their 67.33% stake for the last three quarters. ● Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been steadily raising their stakes since June 2023, now holding 1.08%. ● Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have also grown their stakes to 12.08% in June 2024, up from 11.46% in June 2023. ● At the same time, retail investors have been consistently selling their shares over the past few quarters. Mutual Fund Holding ● Notable small-cap funds such as SBI Small Cap Fund and DSP Small Cap Fund have made substantial investments in this stock, representing 0.63% and 1.55% of their total assets under management, respectively. ● Additionally, ICICI Prudential Exports and Services Fund has recently added (in July 2024) its position in this stock, accounting for approximately 1.11% of its overall portfolio value. Technical Aspects ● From a technical standpoint, this stock appear to be currently overextended. Any pullbacks could provide a valuable opportunity to take positions. ● Stock Volume & Delivery surged by 3.4 times & 3.2 times respectively vis-a-vis their 5 day average with a 5.48% move in price. Conclusion While the company primarily functions in Tamil Nadu, it's fascinating to note that this state accounts for the largest portion (40%) of India's overall gold consumption. Furthermore, the company is gearing up to make its mark in the Chennai market by launching a flagship store along with 3-4 satellite locations. Given the increasing demand for gold jewelry, we anticipate that Thangamayil Jewellery will thrive in the industry in the years ahead.
NSE:THANGAMAYLLong
by GoodluckCapital
1
Crisil: The Credit Rating Agency is Set for Significant Growth! The price is currently on an upward trajectory, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. After hitting resistance around the 3,740 level, the stock price pulled back but found strong support near the 2,700 level. It then bounced back and surpassed its previous resistance. This breakout was significant, as it emerged from the Rounding Bottom pattern that had formed during the consolidation phase. Following the breakout, the stock price stabilized just above the breakout zone for a while. Then, with a dramatic surge, the stock reached an all-time high of ₹6200. However, a wave of selling pressure caused the price to drop back to its trendline support. At present, the stock price is steadily climbing, indicating promising growth potential.
NSE:CRISILLong
by GoodluckCapital
SHARDACROP & DBCORP: Two Bright Spots in a Challenging MarketSharda Cropchem ● The stock price is evidently experiencing a robust upward trend. ● After a brief consolidation phase, it developed a Rounding Bottom pattern, and following a breakout, it has surged to an all-time high. ● The increasing buying volume suggests that the stock could continue to rise significantly. D.B. Corp ● The stock price is currently moving within an Ascending Parallel channel. ● After reaching an all-time high around the 404 mark, the stock experienced a pullback to its trendline support level. ● Having rebounded from this support, the stock price is now poised for upward movement.
NSE:SHARDACROPLong
by GoodluckCapital
2
INDHOTEL & PAGEIND Shock Dalal Street with Q2 Gains, Stocks SoarThe Indian Hotels ◉ Key Financial Metrics ● Net Profit: IHCL's consolidated net profit soared by 232% year-on-year to ₹554.6 crore, up from ₹167 crore in the same quarter last year. ● Revenue: The company achieved a revenue increase of 27.4%, reaching ₹1,826 crore, compared to ₹1,433 crore a year ago. ● EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose by 40% to ₹565 crore, with an EBITDA margin of 29.9%. ◉ Operational Highlights ● IHCL's hotel segment revenue grew by 16%, supported by a strong occupancy rate of 75% in its international portfolio. ● The company signed 42 new hotels, expanding its portfolio to 350 properties globally. ◉ Technical Standings ● The stock has broken through its previous resistance and is nearing the upper boundary of its ascending channel. ● A breakout above this level could fuel further gains. Page Industries ◉ Key Financial Metrics ● Net Profit: Increased by 30% to ₹195.25 crore, up from ₹150.27 crore in the same quarter last year. ● Revenue: Rose by 11.06% to ₹1,246.27 crore, compared to ₹1,122.11 crore a year ago, supported by a 6.7% increase in sales volume (55.2 million pieces sold). ● EBITDA: Grew by 22.1% to ₹281.5 crore, reflecting improved operational efficiency and stable input costs. ◉ Strategic Outlook ● The company is focused on digital transformation and e-commerce initiatives, maintaining its margin guidance for FY25 at 19-21%, which underscores its commitment to sustained profitability. ◉ Technical Standings ● The stock's uptrend remains intact, with higher highs and lows. ● Recent breakout, accompanied by strong volume, suggests the rally will continue.
NSE:INDHOTELLong
by GoodluckCapital
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Builds Momentum for Rebound◉ Since its launch, the stock has faced a dramatic decline, dropped nearly 80% from its peak. ◉ Once it found support around the 12.5 mark, the stock began to rise again, formed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern in the process. ◉ After breaking out, the price surged to an all-time high near the 61 level, only to experience another notable drop. ◉ At present, the stock is trading at the previous breakout point and is expected to rebound shortly.
NSE:UJJIVANSFBLong
by GoodluckCapital
2
The Outperformer's Guide: Top Stocks from Each SectorThis analysis highlights key sectors and stocks to watch. 1. Nifty IT NSE:CNXIT ● The Nifty IT sector has demonstrated resilience during the recent negative market sentiments. ● Notably, it has formed a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern and expected to breakout soon. ➖ Stock to Watch - Coforge NSE:COFORGE ● The stock is currently trading just below its all-time high with a strong uptrend. ● Investors can consider accumulating shares on any dips. 2. Nifty Finance NSE:CNXFINANCE ● The Nifty Finance sector has recently breached its trendline support and is now approaching its next key support level, ranging from 22,500 to 22,700. ➖ Stock to Watch - Axis Bank NSE:AXISBANK ● The stock is currently trading at its support level, offering a potential short to mid-term trading opportunity. 3. Nifty PSU Bank NSE:CNXPSUBANK ● The Nifty PSU Bank sector has consolidated within a range and is nearing its support zone. ➖ Stocks to Watch - State Bank of India NSE:SBIN ● The stock is approaching its trendline support level. ● A buying opportunity may arise if the price reaches the 770 level. 4. Nifty Pharma NSE:CNXPHARMA ● After experiencing a downturn, the Nifty Pharma sector is now approaching its trendline support level. ➖ Stocks to Watch - Divis Laboratories NSE:DIVISLAB ● The price is overall in an uptrend. ● Following a record peak, the stock is now nearing its trendline support level. ● The best buy zone is between 5,500 and 5,600. 5. Nifty Media NSE:CNXMEDIA ● The Nifty Media sector is expected to witness a potential pullback towards the 1,720-1,760 level. ➖ Stocks to Watch - Network18 Media NSE:NETWORK18 ● The stock is trading just above its trendline support zone, presenting a short to mid-term trading opportunity. 6. Nifty Realty NSE:CNXREALTY ● The Nifty Realty index is currently trading above its support zone. ➖ Stocks to Watch - Oberoi Realty NSE:OBEROIRLTY ● The stock is trading at the support zone and expected to rise soon. 7. Nifty FMCG NSE:CNXFMCG ● After a downfall, index is approaching its trendline support level ➖ Stocks to Watch - Varun Beverages NSE:VBL ● VBL is trading above its support zone, offering a short to mid-term trading opportunity. 8. Nifty Metal NSE:CNXMETAL ● The Nifty Metal sector is trading above its support zone, ➖ Stocks to Watch - Ratnamani Metals & Tubes NSE:RATNAMANI ● The stock price has formed an Ascending Triangle pattern and is currently trading above the support level. 9. Nifty Oil & Gas NSE:NIFTY_OIL_AND_GAS ● The Nifty Oil & Gas sector is also trading above its support zone. ➖ Stocks to Watch - Aegis Logistics NSE:AEGISLOG ● The stock price is close to breaking through its trendline resistance. ● If it can maintain its position above this level, a rally may be imminent. 10. Nifty Auto NSE:CNXAUTO ● Lastly, the Nifty Auto sector is trading above its support zone. ➖ Stocks to Watch - Eicher Motors NSE:EICHERMOT ● Eicher Motors is consolidating within a rectangle pattern, indicating a potential breakout.
NSE:CNXITLong
by GoodluckCapital
2
A Healthcare Face-Off: Apollo vs. Narayana◉ Abstract India's hospital industry is growing rapidly, valued at ₹8.35 lakh cr. ($98.98 B) in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 5.8-8.0% from 2024 to 2032. Apollo Hospitals and Narayana Hrudayalaya are two leading players, with Apollo being the largest private hospital network and Narayana Hrudayalaya known for cost-effective cardiac care. Narayana Hrudayalaya appears undervalued with a P/E ratio of 33.5 and more profitable (ROCE: 27%), making it an attractive investment option. Apollo Hospitals seems overvalued with a P/E ratio of 83.4 but remains viable for strategic entry points. Both companies are poised for growth driven by increasing healthcare demands and infrastructure expansion. Read full analysis here........ ◉ Introduction The hospital industry in India is experiencing significant growth, with the market valued at approximately ₹8.35 lakh cr. ($98.98 B) in 2023. Projections indicate a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% to 8.0% from 2024 to 2032, potentially reaching between 13.87 lakh cr. and 16.33 lakh cr. ($164.4 B - $193.6 B) by 2032, depending on various market analyses. ◉ Growth Drivers of the Indian Hospital Industry ● Increased Healthcare Expenditure: ➖ Rising public and private spending on healthcare, with government health expenditure aiming for 2.5% of GDP by 2025. ➖ Expanding middle class with higher disposable incomes and greater access to health insurance. ● Technological Advancements: ➖ Adoption of healthcare technologies such as telemedicine and robotic automation, improving service delivery. ➖ National Digital Health Blueprint promoting innovations in e-health. ● Policy Support and Foreign Investment: ➖ Favourable government policies allowing 100% FDI in healthcare, attracting significant investments. ➖ Public-private partnerships enhancing healthcare access, especially in underserved areas. ● Demand for Specialized Services: ➖ Increasing incidence of lifestyle diseases driving demand for specialized healthcare. ➖ Growth in medical tourism as India becomes a preferred destination for cost-effective treatments. These factors are collectively propelling the growth of the hospital industry in India, positioning it for a promising future. ◉ Key players in the Indian hospital sector 1. Apollo Hospitals leads the sector with a market capitalization of approximately ₹98,646 Cr, establishing itself as the largest private hospital network in India. 2. Max Healthcare closely follows, boasting a market capitalization of around ₹97,820 Cr. 3. Fortis Healthcare is another key participant in the market, with a market capitalization of ₹48,249 Cr. 4. Global Health also ranks among the premier healthcare institutions, holding a market capitalization of ₹28,786 Cr. 5. Narayana Hrudayalaya is recognized for its cost-effective cardiac care services and maintains a notable market share with a market capitalization of ₹26,086 Cr. In this report, we will conduct an in-depth analysis and comparison between two of India's leading healthcare providers, Apollo Hospitals and Narayana Hrudayalaya. This comprehensive evaluation will assess their technical and fundamental aspects, ◉ Company Overviews ● Apollo Hospital NSE:APOLLOHOSP Apollo Hospitals was founded in 1983 by Dr. Prathap C Reddy, a visionary in the evolution of modern healthcare in India. As the first corporate hospital in the country, Apollo Hospitals is celebrated for leading the charge in the private healthcare transformation. Today, Apollo Hospitals stands as Asia's leading integrated healthcare services provider, boasting a strong footprint throughout the healthcare landscape. This includes a diverse range of services such as hospitals, pharmacies, primary care and diagnostic clinics, as well as various retail health models. ● Narayana Hrudalaya NSE:NH Narayana Hrudayalaya Limited is involved in providing medical and healthcare services both in India and abroad. It functions through two main divisions: Medical and Healthcare Related Services, and Others. The organization is responsible for acquiring, owning, and managing a variety of healthcare facilities, including hospitals, clinics, health centres, diagnostic centres, and nursing homes, among other related operations. Its range of services encompasses cardiology, cardiac surgery, nephrology, urology, neurology, neurosurgery, endocrinology, orthopaedics, internal medicine, obstetrics, gynaecology, pediatrics, neonatology, gastroenterology, and oncology. Additionally, the company is active in the health insurance sector. Established in 2000, its headquarters is located in Bengaluru, India. ◉ Technical Analysis ● Apollo Hospitals ➖ The stock faced a significant obstacle near the 5,800 level, resulted in a steep drop. ➖ It later found support around 3,500 and rebounded. ➖ Following an extended period of consolidation, the price developed a Rounding Bottom pattern. ➖ A breakout ensued, leading to a price increase, but it encountered resistance close to 6,800, which triggered a pullback to the breakout point. ➖ Following a successful retest, the price surged past the previous high, reaching a new peak at 7,545. ➖ However, due to prevailing negative market sentiments, the price has since retraced and is currently trading just above its immediate support zone. ● Narayana Hrudalaya ➖ The stock price is overall in an uptrend. ➖ After reaching an all-time high close to the 1,445 level, the price experienced a decline and has since entered a consolidation phase. ➖ A Symmetrical Triangle pattern has formed on the chart. ➖ We expect an upward breakout from this pattern, which could lead to a significant price rally. ◉ Relative Strength ➖ The chart reveals that both Apollo and Narayana Hrudayalaya have underperformed the Nifty Healthcare index. Although Apollo has given a descent 31% return, Narayana lagged significantly, yielding a modest 17% return. In contrast, the Nifty Healthcare index delivered an impressive 41% return. ◉ Service Wise Revenue Breakdown ● Apollo Hospitals The company operates through three primary segments, each contributing significantly to its revenue. ➖ Healthcare services account for approximately 52% of total revenue, forming the largest share. ➖ The retail pharmacy business generates nearly 41% of total sales, while the retail health and diagnostics segment contributes the remaining 7%. ● Narayana Hrudalaya ➖ The company operates exclusively in the healthcare services sector, deriving all its revenue from this single segment. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● Apollo Hospitals Year-over-Year ➖ The company's fiscal year 2024 performance was marked by strong growth, with revenue reaching ₹19,059 crore, a 15% increase from ₹16,612 crore in FY23. ➖ EBITDA surged to ₹2,394 crore, up from ₹2,065 crore in FY23, while the EBITDA margin improved to 13% from 12%. Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the latest quarter ending September 2024, the company achieved its highest-ever sales of ₹5,589 crore, significantly up from ₹5,086 crore in June 2024. This quarter-on-quarter growth has been consistent since March 2022. ➖ EBITDA for the quarter was an impressive ₹816 crore, a 21% increase from ₹675 crore in June 2024. ➖ Diluted EPS (LTM) rose substantially to ₹83.31 from ₹72.13 in June 2024. ● Narayana Hrudalaya Year-over-Year ➖ In FY24, our company achieved remarkable sales growth, surging 11% to ₹5,018 crore from ₹4,525 crore in FY23. ➖ EBITDA soared to ₹1,173 crore, up from ₹987 crore in the same period, with an impressive EBITDA margin of 23%. Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ Our quarterly sales reached an all-time high of ₹1,400 crore in September, representing a 4% increase from ₹1,341 crore in June. ➖ Although EBITDA growth was modest, it still improved to ₹308 crore in September from ₹304 crore in June 2024. ➖ However, Diluted EPS experienced a decline, dropping to ₹38.85 from ₹39.72. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ Apollo Hospitals' current P/E ratio stands at 83.4, down from its 1-year median of 107.7. However, this remains significantly above the industry average of 56.9, indicating overvaluation. ➖ In contrast, Narayana Hrudalaya's P/E ratio of 33.5 is slightly above its 1-year median of 32.8 and substantially below the industry average, suggesting undervaluation. ● P/B Ratio ➖ Apollo's P/B ratio of 13.15 indicates considerable overvaluation compared to the industry average of 7.18. ➖ Narayana Hrudalaya's P/B ratio of 8.14 also suggests overvaluation, albeit to a lesser extent. ● PEG Ratio ➖ Narayana's PEG ratio of 0.49 positions it as an attractive investment opportunity, especially when compared to Apollo's considerably higher PEG of 2.43. ◉ Profitability Analysis ➖ Apollo Hospitals ROCE - 15% in FY24 ➖ Narayana Hrudalaya ROCE - 27% in FY24 The significant difference in ROCE between the two healthcare giants underscores Narayana Hrudalaya's superior profitability. Narayana's impressive ROCE of 27% demonstrates its ability to efficiently utilize its total capital, comprising both equity and debt, to generate substantially higher returns. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ Apollo Hospitals has demonstrated impressive growth in its operating cash flow, surging 39% to ₹1,920 crore in FY24 from ₹1,377 crore in FY23. This robust growth underscores the company's efficiency in converting profits into cash, highlighting its strong financial health and liquidity position. ➖ In contrast, Narayana Hrudalaya has shown sluggishness in turning profits into cash, with its operating cash flow declining 2% to ₹1,067 crore in FY24 from ₹1,085 crore in FY23. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ Apollo Hospitals' debt stands at ₹7,371 crore, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.98, which, although relatively high, is not alarming. However, the company's low interest coverage ratio of 4.69 raises concerns about its ability to service its debt. This vulnerability may complicate repayment of borrowed loans, potentially straining Apollo's financial stability. ➖ In contrast, Narayana Hrudalaya's debt of ₹1,703 crore and debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 indicate robust financial health. Furthermore, its impressive interest coverage ratio of 8.34 suggests the company is well-positioned to manage its debt obligations, ensuring greater financial flexibility and stability. ◉ Shareholding Pattern ● Apollo Hospitals ➖ In the September quarter, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) increased their stake in Apollo Hospitals to 45.37%, up from the previous quarter. ➖ Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) reduced their holdings to 19.94%, a significant decrease from 24.77% in the last quarter. ● Narayana Hrudalaya ➖ In contrast, Narayana Hrudalaya witnessed a decline in institutional investor holdings. FIIs reduced their stake to 9.69%, down from 10% in the previous quarter. ➖ Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also decreased their holdings to 7.9%, down from 8.22% in the June quarter. ◉ Conclusion Following a comprehensive analysis of both technical and fundamental aspects, we conclude that Narayana Hrudalaya appears to be favorably positioned from a valuation perspective, presenting an attractive investment opportunity. However, this does not diminish Apollo Hospitals' potential. Although the stock currently appears overvalued, investors can consider accumulating shares during dips, making it a viable option for those seeking strategic entry points. The healthcare sector's promising growth trajectory, fueled by rising healthcare demands and infrastructure expansion, positions both companies for potentially excellent returns in the near future.
NSE:APOLLOHOSPLong
by GoodluckCapital
2
The Breakout Retest Play: 5 Stocks to Consider1. Infosys NSE:INFY ● The stock has formed a Rounding Bottom pattern, and after the breakout, it rose significantly, reaching an all-time high near 1,990. ● Currently, the stock is trading slightly above the breakout level following a minor pullback. ➖ Best buy level: 1790 - 1830 2. ITC NSE:ITC ● The stock encountered resistance between the 470 and 480 levels multiple times. ● After breaking through this range, the price surged to an all-time high of 528. ● The price then faced rejection at this peak and has since retreated to the breakout level, where it is now rising again. ➖ Best buy level: 470 - 480 3. Lupin NSE:LUPIN ● The stock achieved a breakout after nearly nine years in August 2024. ● Following an initial upward movement, the stock price pulled back for a retest and is now trending upward once more. ➖ Best buy level: 2000 - 2050 4. Birlasoft NSE:BSOFT ● After breaking out of the Rounding Bottom pattern, the stock price surged to an all-time high of 856 before declining. ●The stock is currently trading at the breakout level, which appears to be a strong support. ➖ Best buy level: 550-560 5. Emami NSE:EMAMILTD ● After a prolonged consolidation, the stock developed an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. ● Following the breakout, the price surged to an all-time high of 860 but faced strong rejection from that level. ● The stock is now approaching a retest of the previous breakout level. ➖ Best buy level: 595 - 600
NSE:INFYLong
by GoodluckCapital
Gas Sector Gathers Steam: IGL & MGL's Future Open Interest JumpsIGL ● The stock has undergone a consolidation phase, formed an Ascending Triangle pattern. ● Following a breakout, it surged to an all-time high near ₹570 before experiencing a decline. ● Currently, a Rounding Top pattern has emerged, and after a gap down, the price is testing its trendline support. ● Importantly, there has been a notable increase in future open interest of about 25%, indicating that investors are eager to purchase at more favorable price levels. MGL ● After encountering resistance around the ₹1550 level, the stock price dropped to ₹1200. ● From this support level, it made a strong recovery, breaking through resistance to achieve an all-time high close to ₹1990. ● However, selling pressure has led to a pullback to the previous breakout level. ● Like IGL, MGL has also experienced a significant rise in future open interest of approximately 16%. ● This trend suggests that investors are interested in accumulating shares at a lower price.
NSE:IGLLong
by GoodluckCapital
DIVISLAB's Open Interest Jumps 6%: Bullish Sentiment BuildsFollowing a strong upward trend, the stock encountered significant resistance near the 5,300 level, resulting in a steep drop. Afterward, the price found support near the 2,700 mark and managed to bounce back. During this consolidation phase, the stock price has developed a Rounding Bottom pattern. With a clear breakout, the price is now set for an upside rally. A notable increase in future open interest—around 6%—has been recorded for this stock. This rise in both the stock price and future open interest indicates that significant investors hold a positive outlook on this stock.
NSE:DIVISLABLong
by GoodluckCapital
3
COFORGE & ECLERX: Two IT Underdogs on the Rise!COFORGE The stock displayed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, and following the breakout, the price saw a substantial rise, subsequently created another bullish formation called Pole & Flag. Recently, the price has broken through and is expected to continue its upward trend. ECLERX This chart also reveals the presence of an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Following a recent breakout, the price is positioned for an upward movement.
NSE:COFORGELong
by GoodluckCapital
2
Cosmic Collision: DLF & Oberoi Realty Clash in Real-Estate Space◉ Abstract The Indian real estate market is growing fast and is expected to reach $1 Trillion by 2030. Two big companies in this field are DLF and Oberoi Realty. DLF makes most of its money from commercial properties mainly through rental income, while Oberoi Realty focuses on homes. Both companies are doing well, but Oberoi Realty is growing faster and making more profit. DLF's stock price might go up soon after being stable for a long time. Oberoi Realty's stock has been going up steadily. Both companies don't have too much debt and are attracting investors. DLF seems expensive when you look at its price compared to earnings, while Oberoi Realty looks like a better deal. Oberoi Realty is also spending more on growing its business. In the end, both companies are in a good position to benefit from India's growing economy and increasing demand for real estate. ◉ Introduction The Indian real estate sector has witnessed significant growth in recent years, driven by increasing demand, policy reforms, and infrastructure development. Two prominent players, DLF Limited and Oberoi Realty Limited, have been at the forefront of this growth, shaping the country's urban landscape. Both companies have established themselves as leaders in the industry, with a strong presence in residential, commercial, and retail segments. ◉ Indian Real Estate Sector: Future Growth Prospects India's real estate market is expected to register significant growth in the coming years, driven by a number of factors. Here's a quick summary of the key trends: ● Market size and GDP contribution: The market size is expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030, up from US$ 200 billion in 2021, and contribute 15.5% to GDP by 2047. ● Residential market growth: The residential market is witnessing strong growth, with the value of home sales reaching an all-time high of Rs. 3.47 lakh crore (US$ 42 billion) in FY23. Demand is surging in top 8 cities across mid-income, premium, and luxury segments. ● Retail and office space: The retail and office space segments are also growing rapidly. Gross leasing in top 7 cities crossed 60 million sq ft for the first time in 2023, with technology companies leading leasing activity. ● Data centers: Data center demand is on the rise, with an expected increase of 15-18 million sq ft by 2025. ● Housing shortage: There is a significant housing shortage in urban areas, with the current shortage estimated at 10 million units. An additional 25 million units of affordable housing are required by 2030. Overall, the Indian real estate sector presents a promising picture for growth and development. The sector is benefiting from a number of factors, including a growing economy, rising urbanization, and increasing disposable incomes. This is leading to strong demand for both residential and commercial properties. ◉ Company Overviews ● DLF NSE:DLF DLF Limited, along with its subsidiaries, focuses on colonization and real estate development across India. Their activities encompass land acquisition, project planning, construction, and marketing. The company specializes in developing and selling residential projects, while also managing commercial office spaces and retail properties, including malls and hospitality ventures. Notably, it owns The Lodhi Hotel and Hilton Garden Inn in New Delhi, as well as the DLF Golf & Country Club in Gurugram. Additionally, DLF is involved in leasing, maintenance, power generation, and recreational services. Established in 1946, DLF Limited is headquartered in Gurugram and operates as a subsidiary of Rajdhani Investments and Agencies Private Limited. ● Oberoi Realty NSE:OBEROIRLTY Oberoi Realty Limited, along with its subsidiaries, focuses on real estate development and hospitality in India. It operates in two main segments: Real Estate and Hospitality. The company develops and sells various projects, including residential, commercial, hospitality, retail, and social infrastructure. It also leases office and retail spaces. Additionally, it manages hotel operations, which include room sales, food and beverage services, and related offerings, as well as constructing residential apartments and providing property management services. Established in 1998, the company is based in Mumbai, India. ◉ Market Capitalization ● DLF - ₹ 2,26,256 Cr. ($26.8 B) ● Oberoi Realty - ₹ 68,970 Cr. ($8.2 B) ◉ Relative Strength The chart vividly demonstrates that neither company has managed to surpass the performance of the real estate sector over the past year. The realty sector has achieved an impressive return of 94%, while DLF and Oberoi Realty have delivered returns of 73% and 67%, respectively. ◉ Technical Aspects ● DLF ➖ Since its listing in July 2007, DLF reached an impressive peak of ₹ 1046 in January 2008. ➖ However, the stock faced a significant decline following the Lehman Brothers crisis later that year. ➖ After enduring a lengthy period of consolidation lasting eight years, the price stabilized around ₹ 66 in February 2016 and began its upward trajectory. ➖ Now, after nearly 17 years of consolidation, the stock is trading just below a critical resistance level, with a breakout anticipated in the near future. ● OBEROIRLTY ➖ Since its launch in December 2010, Oberoi Realty has shown a consistent upward trajectory ➖ During this ascent, the stock formed a Bullish Pennant pattern, and after breaking out, it surged to an all-time high of ₹ 1970 in September 2024. ➖ Currently, it is trading just below this peak. Analysts expect the stock to continue its upward momentum and reach new heights in the coming days. ◉ Revenue Breakdown ● DLF DLF mainly generates its revenue from real estate development, concentrating on both commercial and residential areas. Significantly, the commercial real estate sector contributes a considerable 74% of the company's total revenue, largely through rental income. ● OBEROIRLTY The company predominantly earns around 97% of its revenue from the real estate development sector. Furthermore, it also participates in the hospitality industry, which adds the remaining 3% to its overall revenue. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● DLF ➖ Over the past three years, DLF has recorded a modest compounded annual growth rate of 6% in sales. ➖ Despite this, the company has seen remarkable profit growth, which surged by 33% during the same timeframe. ➖ Currently, DLF enjoys a robust operating profit margin of 33%, an increase from 30% in FY23. ➖ In fiscal year 2024, earnings per share have jumped to 11.02, up from 8.22 the previous year, reflecting a consistent upward trend in EPS over the last four years. ● OBEROIREALTY ➖ In the last three years, Oberoi Realty has achieved an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 30% in sales. ➖ Profit growth has closely mirrored this success, with a CAGR of 34% during the same period. ➖ The company currently boasts an outstanding operating profit margin of 55%, a figure that continues to rise. ➖ While the EPS growth from FY23 to FY24 is modest, with EPS standing at 52.99 compared to 52.38 the previous year, the overall trend in EPS has been positive over the last four years. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ DLF's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 79.6, slightly exceeding its 1-year median P/E of 76.7. However, when juxtaposed with the industry average of 34.4, it becomes evident that DLF is significantly overvalued at this time. ➖ In contrast, Oberoi Realty presents a P/E ratio of 31.50, which is just above its 1-year median P/E of 29.6. Yet, when compared to the industry P/E of 34.4, it appears to be undervalued. ● P/B Ratio ➖ DLF's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 5.74, indicating a substantial overvaluation relative to the industry average of 3.54. ➖ Similarly, Oberoi Realty also seems overvalued with a P/B ratio of 4.98. ● PEG Ratio ➖ Oberoi Realty's PEG ratio of 1.83 positions it as an attractive investment opportunity, especially when compared to DLF's considerably higher PEG of 4.79. ◉ Profitability Analysis ➖ DLF ROCE - 6% in FY24 ➖ OBEROIRLTY ROCE - 15% in FY24 ➖ These numbers clearly demonstrate that Oberoi Realty is more profitable than DLF, as it efficiently leverages its total capital—comprising both equity and debt—to yield higher returns. ◉ Capex Analysis ● DLF ➖ The cash flow statement for DLF reveals a negative capital expenditure, indicating that the company is selling or disposing of its existing capital assets. ➖ This suggests a strategic decision to reduce its portfolio of office spaces and similar fixed assets, as they are no longer deemed necessary. ● OBEROIRLTY ➖ In contrast, Oberoi Realty has ramped up its capital expenditure from 601 crore to 677 crore compared to the previous year. ➖ This increase is a positive sign for the company, reflecting its ambition for expansion and growth in the market. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ DLF has demonstrated impressive growth in its operating cash flow, rising to 2,539 crore from 2,375 crore in FY23. ➖ Oberoi Realty has also performed exceptionally well, transforming its cash from operations to an impressive 2,810 crore, marking a significant recovery from a considerable negative of 2,383 crore in FY23. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ DLF demonstrates robust financial health with a manageable debt level of 4,894 crores and an impressive debt to equity ratio of just 0.12, signaling that debt is not a significant issue for the company. ➖ On the other hand, Oberoi has a debt of 2,495 crores, resulting in a debt to equity ratio of 0.18, which indicates that the company is also not worried about its debt situation. ◉ Shareholding Pattern ● DLF ➖ Currently, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) possess a 16.17% stake, reflecting a decline from the previous quarter. ➖ On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have increased their holdings to 4.81% as of the June quarter, a slight rise from 4.77% in the last quarter. ● OBEROIRLTY ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have made a notable increase in their investment in this stock, now holding 18.05%, up from 16.96% in the last quarter. ➖ Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have reduced their stake to 12.30%, down from 12.83% in the March quarter. ◉ Conclusion After a comprehensive assessment of the technical and financial metrics, we have concluded that Oberoi Realty has surpassed DLF in terms of valuation, profitability, revenue growth, and future expansion prospects. However, this does not imply that DLF cannot enhance its performance in the future. In fact, DLF is on the verge of a significant multi-year breakthrough, and if this happens, it could create an excellent opportunity for investors to take advantage of any price declines. In the end, both companies exhibit strong growth potential as they are leaders in the real estate sector. As the economy continues to grow, both Oberoi Realty and DLF are well-positioned to capitalize on this expansion.
NSE:DLFLong
by GoodluckCapital
3
Tata Power & Tata Communications: Dynamic Duo Poised for UpswingTata Power The stock has shown a significant upward trend, reached at the 460 level, where it encountered strong resistance. As a result, the price pulled back and found support around the 405 level, entered a consolidation phase. During this phase, a Pole & Flag pattern developed on the chart, and with a recent breakout supported by robust trading volume, the stock is primed for further upward movement. Tata Communications Overall, the price is on an upward trajectory, consistently making higher highs and lows. After hitting an all-time high close to the 2070 level, the price faced a notable rejection, resulted in a sharp decline followed by a consolidation phase. During this period, an Ascending Triangle pattern developed, and the stock has recently achieved a successful breakout. The current price action indicates that the stock is poised for another significant rally.
NSE:TATAPOWERLong
by GoodluckCapital
ICICI Bank & M_M See Significant Open Interest GrowthICICI Bank The current stock price is navigating through an ascending parallel channel, demonstrating a strong upward trend characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the price has successfully breached the upper boundary of the parallel channel and is attempting to maintain its position above this breakout level. A significant rise in future open interest—approximately 27%—has been observed for this stock. This increase in both the stock price and future open interest suggests that major investors are optimistic regarding this stock. As long as the price stays above the 1300 level, the overall sentiment is expected to remain positive. Mahindra & Mahindra The stock is experiencing a robust upward trend, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. During this upward movement, the price has formed a bullish Pole & Flag pattern. Recently, following a notable breakout accompanied by substantial trading volume, the stock has reached its all-time high. Additionally, there has been a significant increase in future open interest, which has risen by nearly 16%. This growth in both the stock price and future open interest indicates that major investors are confident about this stock.
NSE:ICICIBANKLong
by GoodluckCapital
3
Greenply vs Greenpanel: A Clash of Plywood and MDF Giants!About Companies Greenply Industries NSE:GREENPLY is a prominent player in the plywood industry, dedicated to the production and trade of plywood and its associated products. Their extensive range features plywood, block board, wood flooring, medium density fiberboard, flush doors, and decorative veneers. Founded in 1984 by Shiv Prakash Mittal, the company operates out of Kolkata, India. In 2018, Greenpanel Industries NSE:GREENPANEL emerged as a separate entity from Greenply Industries, concentrating on the manufacturing of MDF boards and related products. Their product lineup includes wood flooring, veneers, flush doors, and more. Market Capitalization ● Greenply Industries - ₹ 4,751 Cr. ● Greenpanel Industries - ₹ 4,849 Cr. Technical Aspects Greenply ● The monthly chart reveals that the stock price encountered significant resistance around the 340 mark, resulting in a sharp decline that brought it down to the 70 level, where it found support. ● After an extented phase of consolidation, the stock formed a Double Bottom pattern. ● Once this pattern broke out, the price surged upward, and nearly 6.5 years later, in July 2024, the stock successfully broke through the previous resistance zone. ● Having maintained its position above this breakout level, the stock price is poised for further gains. Greenpanel ● After reaching a remarkable high close to 625, the stock faced a considerable downturn. ● It later found a solid support at the 260 level, which set the stage for its recovery. ● Nevertheless, the stock ran into resistance around the 430 mark, caused another retreat to the previous support zone. ● Currently, with a fresh upward trend, the price exhibits significant growth potential. Revenue Breakdown ● Greenply Industries generates a remarkable 77.4% of its total revenue from plywood and associated products, establishing itself as a dominant player with a 26% market share in the domestic plywood sector. ● In contrast, Greenpanel Industries focuses heavily on MDF boards, which make up an astounding 91% of its total sales, securing a 21% market share in the domestic MDF industry. Sales & Profit Analysis ● Greenply ➖ In the last three years, this company has experienced an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 23% in sales. ➖ However, profit growth has been modest, increased by only 3% during the same period. ➖ The company currently holds an operating profit margin of 9%, which is deemed acceptable. ➖ In the fiscal year 2024, earnings per share have dropped to 5.44, down from 7.44 in FY2023. ● Greenpanel ➖ Over the past three years, this company has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 15% in sales. ➖ In contrast, profit growth has been exceptional, soaring at a 26% CAGR during the same period. ➖ Currently, the company boasts an operating profit margin of 16%, a noteworthy figure. ➖ However, in fiscal year 2024, earnings per share have declined to 11.64, down from 20.92 in FY2023. Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ Greenply Industries currently has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 48.75, which is marginally above its 1-year median PE of 48.1, yet it aligns closely with the industry average PE of 48.75. ➖ On the other hand, Greenpanel Industries shows a current PE of 33.94, indicating it may be overvalued relative to its 1-year median PE of 25.2, but it appears undervalued when compared to the industry PE of 48.75. ● P/B Ratio ➖ Greenply has a PB ratio of 6.69, suggesting it is considerably overvalued. ➖ However, Greenpanel Industries has a PB ratio of 3.68, which, although somewhat high, does not indicate overvaluation. ● Intrinsic Value ● Greenply is presently valued at ₹984, a figure that is approximately 2.4 times its intrinsic worth of ₹158. This suggests that the stock is currently overvalued. ● Conversely, Greenpanel has a market price of ₹395, roughly 1.5 times its intrinsic value of ₹259, which similarly indicates that this stock is also overvalued at this time. Product Demand analysis (Plywood vs MDF) ● Greenply presently has an inventory turnover ratio of 4.2, an improvement from 3.96 three years ago. ● In comparison, Greenpanel Industries shines with a current inventory turnover ratio of 5.08, a substantial increase from 3.71 three years earlier. ● These figures clearly indicate a rising demand for MDF products, highlighting a promising trend in the market. Company Capex ● Greenply has significantly reduced its capital expenditure, slashing it to 123 crore from last year's 412 crore, indicating a lack of a robust capex program. ● In contrast, Greenpanel has made a remarkable leap in its capital investments, raising its capex to 344 crore from just 80 crore in the previous financial year. Debt Analysis ● Greenpanel Industries stands strong with a manageable debt of 296 crores and a favorable debt to equity ratio of 0.22, indicating that debt is not a concern for the company. With an impressive interest coverage ratio of 16, Greenpanel is well-equipped to handle its loan repayments without any issues. ● Other side, Greenply Industries carries a higher debt burden of 549 crores, reflected in a debt to equity ratio of 0.77. With an interest coverage ratio of only 3.33, the company may face challenges in meeting its loan repayment obligations. Cashflow Analysis ● Greenply has experienced an impressive increase in its operating cash flow, jumping to 111 crore from a mere 62 crore in FY23. ● Greenpanel Industries has struggled to convert its profits into cash, with its operating cash flow declined significantly to 135 crore from 337 crore in FY2023. Shareholding Pattern ● Greenply ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are dramatically raising their investments. In the latest June quarter, their stake has surged to 4.91%, a notable increase from just 2.15% in June 2023. ➖ Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) currently hold 30.33% as of the June quarter, down from 32.41% last year. ● Greenpanel ➖ Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are consistently divesting their positions in this stock, with their current ownership now at a mere 2.12%, a significant drop from 4.3% a year ago ➖ In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are steadily boosting their investments, with their current stake rising to 26.71%, up from 21.60% in June 2023. Some Important Facts ● Shifting Demand From Plywood to MDF ➖ Worldwide, the consumption ratio of MDF to plywood stands at 80:20; however, in India, this ratio is notably reversed, with plywood dominating at 20:80 as of 2022. ➖ Industry experts predict that by 2030, this ratio in India will shift to an even 50:50. ➖ This shift indicates significant growth opportunities for the MDF sector in India, particularly as it is poised to capture a larger share of the low and medium-grade plywood market, which currently makes up 85% of the plywood industry in the country. MDF Industry Growth Drivers ● Growth of Online Home Décor Platforms ➖ The growth of online home décor platforms like Pepper Fry, Fab Furbish, and Urban Ladder has increased the need for ready-to-assemble (RTA) furniture, impacting the MDF industry directly. ● Reduction in Furniture Cycle Time ➖ The increasing popularity of stylish, comfortable furniture crafted from MDF has significantly reduced the home renovation timeline, slashing it from the previous 15 to 20 years down to just 7 to 8 years. ● Cost Advantage Over Plywood ➖ MDF is much cheaper than plywood because it is made from leftover wood materials, both hardwood and softwood. Conclusion ➖ After examining all the factors, it appears that the MDF industry is poised for significant growth in the near future, outpacing the Plywood sector. As a result, companies such as Greenpanel Industries are likely to reap substantial benefits, which will have a direct positive effect on their share prices.
NSE:GREENPANELLong
by GoodluckCapital
2