TCS
TCSTCS was definitely a surprise for its loyal investors even though it was having not so annoying quarterly results.
Now let’s focus on what’s next. I carefully went through the chart adding some important parameters. Let me share the findings with you.
On 26th Feb TCS closed 3.37% Down with a huge volume spike at 5.53M, RSI was 33.12.
On 9th July TCS closed 1.55% Down with a huge volume spike at 6.365M, RSI was 41.53
Today TCS closed 6.35% Down with volume at surprising 11.845M, RSI at 43.18
When I drew a trend line connecting the RSI’s it touches almost perfectly, the 14 day RSI and the trend line has been plotted below portion of the chart.
On 26th Feb the stock reversed upwards right away. But during 9th July the stock consolidated for 2 weeks and reversed upwards after RSI touched a low of 38.72 on closing basis.
Current scenario is TCS fell with a heavy volume, the low was made at Resistance acting as Support line (Mark the black horizontal line 3657), and RSI trend line indicates a support zone is here nearby. So there are two probabilities the stock may move upwards right away or after some consolidation, but this is definitely an accumulation zone.One can wait for reversal signs before starting to accumulate. I have tried to justify by using my minimum knowledge that why one should be still bullish on TCS.
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Chart & Analysis – ADARSH DEY
4000 coming for TCS?TCS, the leader of the IT pack, is in a nice uptrend. If we see a continuation of the bar formed today, we should be approaching 4000 odd levels in no time. One could initiate a trade keeping the following levels in mind.
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LONG ABOVE: 3853
STOP LOSS: 3767
TARGET 1: 3939
TARGET 2: 4025
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Only initiate the trade if price sustains above the "LONG ABOVE" level for at least 15 minutes.
Manage risk properly and trade your plan.
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IT "glitch" drags Nifty below 17950 from 18040+NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -11-10-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17867.55
H 18041.95
L 17839.10
C 17945.95
EOD - +50.75 points /+0.28%
SGX Nifty at 1930h =20points
FII DII = -1676 Crores.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened a mild gap up and then sold off to 8-10 low level and then, made a strong and sustained recovery to clear 18000 in style and then topped 18040 as well.
However, by then FTSE had opened and the usual nervousness walked in and then there was a sell-off over the next 3 hours.
Yet again, Nifty ended the day 90+ points below the ATH level achieved during the day.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 72
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 87
Net = -15
POSITIVES
Nifty hit an All Time High above 18000.
Nifty ended at yet another ATH close.
HDFC was very volatile but settled in the green on an EOD basis.
HDFC Bank seems to be pricing in a good result like how TCS did.
Bank Nifty hit a new ATH and also ended at a new ATH.
NEGATIVES
IT big heads dragged Nifty in a big way.
I do not recall TCS falling more than 3% post results in the recent past. Though this was to happen as it was at a very critical level below 4000.
Reliance lost more than 60 points after hitting an ATH of 2720.
TRADING RANGE FOR the coming week
Nifty 17700-750 is the support base. I am not sure about the resistance levels as price action in Infosys, Wipro, as well as HDFC Bank may keep driving Nifty as they get ready to receive their answer papers during the next few days.
Bank Nifty Support = 37500-700 appears to be a good support area. Since the ATH was hit today, I will let the index play its game for a couple of days and see where it ends the week before commenting on any resistance levels.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
Nifty low for the day was just 1 point below 8-10 low and high for the day was 100 points above 8-10 high and yet Nifty managed to close only 50 points above 8-10 Close.
This seems to be a mathematical play!
The contribution by Nifty top 5 performers fell short by 15 points from the top 5 draggers of the Index. This is the kind of weakness and negativity that was driven by the IT index and that is why the subject line of the post.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
11-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
TCS Q2 results based strategies - OutcomeTCS Q2 RESULT BASED STRATEGIES - OUTCOME
The IT heavyweight is scheduled to declare its results today after market hours. This is the reason I thought of doing a post cum video explaining the basis on which I have created the strategy only for the purposes of tracking and till the time of writing this post and creating the video related to it, I have not taken a position. If I do take, I will let you know in the weekend post.
TCS hit a New All-Time High of 3989 and at the time of writing this post, it is around 3950. I already have other FNO positions on so I do not have spare capital to deploy so this approach.
Please watch the video to know how the strategies performed and what I ended up doing when the scrip fell down by 6%+.
I have chosen to track the following strategies:
Bull Call Spread:
In creating the spread, I have bought 3960 CE and shorted 4000 CE. The details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video.
In the worst case, there is a loss of 4K and in the best case, a gain of 6K. In my view, this is a good risk-reward considering the fact that there could be wild movements in a scrip post its results and TCS has moved 2-3% in the past around such events.
Outcome:
At 1100hours =
Spread Value When Created = 14
At 1100h = 03
Being a Bull CE spread, the value should have gone up for us to make money
Gain / Loss = -11*300 = -3300
Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 80,000
ROI = -4%
ATM Short Straddle:
In this, I have shorted 3960 CE as well as PE. the details of the cost, pay-off, and the associated risk as well as the capital needed have been explained in the short and crisp video.
The margin requirement is quite high so even if I create a strategy by EOD, I would not go for this. The Max gain is around 65K and obviously, the loss in unlimited as Options are being shorted. Though one can always keep an SL or exit when the spot reaches a pre-decided level.
Generally, short strategies are useful when the implied volatility is high prior to the event and the position gains as the VIX cools off after the event.
At 1100hours =
Straddle Value When Created = 225
At 1100h = 293
Being a Short Straddle, the value should have gone DOWN for us to make money.
Gain / Loss = -68*300 = -20400
Capital deployed Incl MTM Loss provision = 350,000
ROI = -5.83%
I will post an outcome video as well on 11-10-21 so stay tuned!
Till then,
Keep learning & making money but at all times, please assign topmost priority to your capital and do all that is needed to stay in the game with it!
Best wishes.
Umesh
8-10-21 & 11-10-21
Swing Trading Opportunities for the week beginning 11-10-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 11-10-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR THE COMING WEEK
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
Asian Paints
BPCL
HDFC
ICICI Bank
Tata Consumer
Force Motors
HDFC AMC
HPL
Bayer Crop
Bombay Burmah
Bector Foods
Engineers India
Idea
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
Auto
Media
PSU Bank
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
10-10--21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
Nifty rebounds in style but ends below 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-10-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17810.55
H 17857.55
L 17763.80
C 17790.35
EOD +144.35 points /+-0.82%
SGX Nifty @ 1735h 17847 / +25 points
FII DII = It is a bit early for the data to be released. DIIs may have sold.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
A strong 150 point gap up opening and then it moved in a sideways range and as FTSE open neared, it headed higher but could not decisively cross 17850 even on a 5-minute chart for more than one candle.
The expiry blues entered in the last hour and Nifty drifted towards 17800 and then broke the level as 17800 CE would have been written aggressively.
It gave up most of the gains made during the day and closed below 17800.
The daily chart indicates a Doji as the Open and Close prices were quite close.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 98
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 20
Net = +78
POSITIVES
Auto and IT leaders took the lead and held Nifty higher. The supremacy was evident as even the HDFC twins could not drag Nifty as they may have liked to do.
ICICI Bank closed above 700.
Reliance held on to the greener zone.
HDFC Bank held on to 1600 plus levels.
NEGATIVES
HDFC ended in red and is finding it hard to sustain closings above 2750.
Except for ICICI Bank, all leading banks ended in the red and that is what prevented Bank Nifty from attempting a hit to 38000.
TRADING RANGE FOR 8-10-21
Nifty 17600-650-700 is the support base. Resistance regrettably is at every nook and corner of the charts starting from 17800-820-850-900.
Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 appears to be a good support area. Resistance 37800-38000-38200.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
If you closely look at the OHLC numbers and intraday charts of the indices, you would realize that the moves for the day were such that they negated what happened yesterday.
The indices are just around the levels where they were on EOD 5-10-21. This means that we are still not out of the woods.
Tomorrow is the RBI policy so there may be some jerks experienced, however, in he recent times, the announcements have become a non-event.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
7-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
tcs buying for intradayHello guys i had find this trade which is in good demand zone in 4h timeframe and also broken structure in 15m timeframe we can buy from here with below swing low sl and tg at near resistance also plzz do your own analysis before taking any trading decision also if you like my analysis plzz like share and follow for more thank you
Swing SetupEXPLANATION: This is a 2 hour time frame chart of TCS . The stock has been in a uptrend for days and has formed head and shoulders pattern. If stock give a strong breakdown and broke its demand zone with volumes and retested the same. I am bearish on TCS .
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#TCS PERFORMANCE# WE WILL MAKE ONLY PROFIT
Buy Tata Consultancy Services, target price Rs 3670: ICICI Securities. Promoters held 72.2 per cent stake in the company as of March 31, 2021, while FIIs held 15.7 per cent, DIIs 7.8 per cent and public and others 4.3 per cent.
TCS Perform really will
TCS follow there Trend line...
if you are a intraday Trader than you will buy CE on there Trend line.
if it follow trend line and make a green candle on upper side than buy CE and set stop loss on last candle but try is not touch your candle.
if TCS break trend line wait some to make a good trend line..
#IF YOU NEED ANY HELP JUST COMMENT OR MESSAGE ME😊😊
Levels for - 22 Sep 2021 EXPLANATION : This is a 15 Min time frame chart of TCS , It has been in a consolidate for days and has formed an Ascending Triangle Pattern . If give a strong breakout and broke its supply zone with high volumes and retest the same , I am bullish on TCS . If stock break the trend line we plan to short , downside levels marked in chart .
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