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XAUUSD H1 Main Trend for the Weekend Gold failed to confirm a sustainable upward momentum after yesterday's price reaction, prioritizing a short-term adjustment scenario before reassessing the trend PRIORITY SCENARIO Strategy to sell based on reactions at large volume areas, suitable for the current short-term structure Focus sell area: 4332 – 4342 Technical basis: these are areas concentrated with volume according to the Volume Profile, where price is likely to show distribution reactions after a weak recovery Expected movement: price recovers to the large volume area for distribution, then continues the adjustment phase Daily target: Heading towards the 4275 area, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement area and underlying support Position management: Sell should only be held short-term. If the price surpasses and stabilizes above 4342, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell orders. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO Monitor price reactions at deeper support areas to reassess trading opportunities Strong support area: around 4275 Technical context: this is the convergence area between structural support and Fibonacci retracement, likely to show defensive buying force Expected movement: if the price reacts well at this area, the market may enter a re-accumulation state MAIN REASON On H1, the previous upward phase failed to maintain a clear upward structure, indicating weakening buying force Volume Profile helps identify the 4332 – 4342 areas as advantageous entry points for the sell reaction scenario The 4275 area serves as a reasonable adjustment target in the context of a typically momentum-lacking weekend market MACRO CONTEXT AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK While short-term fluctuations lean towards adjustment, major institutions still maintain a positive outlook for gold in the medium and long term. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices could reach $4,900/oz by the end of 2026, supported by strong buying demand from central banks and positive impacts from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. This suggests that short-term declines may be more of a technical adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
2
XAUUSD (H1) – Friday Weekend Lana prioritizes the adjustment phase towards the POC area, looking to Sell in the liquidity zone 💛 Quick Summary Context: Friday, the market often tends to take profits and sweep liquidity before the week closes Monitoring Frame: H1 Main Viewpoint: Prioritize a decrease during the day (adjustment phase) Key Point to Note: 4308 has reacted multiple times, a sensitive point in the structure Market Context The weekend is usually a time when the cash flow is “lighter” and price behavior tends to lean towards profit-taking. Therefore, an adjustment phase to gain more liquidity is the scenario Lana prioritizes today. From a medium-term perspective, some large institutions still maintain a positive view on gold. However, in intraday trading, Lana still prioritizes following the current price behavior and trading according to the liquidity zone. Technical View H1 On H1, the price is fluctuating around the accumulation zone, and the POC/VAL area indicates this is a market zone that has been “back and forth” for quite a while. When the price returns to these areas, there is usually a clear reaction. The 4308 area is noteworthy because the price has reacted multiple times, so this is a point that could determine whether the adjustment phase continues. Today's Trading Scenario Main Scenario – Sell at POC/VAL area (large liquidity) Sell: 4335 – 4340 Lana prioritizes waiting for the price to rebound to this area to sell according to the adjustment phase. This is a large liquidity zone, suitable for finding a downward reaction during the day. Alternative Scenario – Buy scalping at near support Buy: 4284 – 4289 This Buy order is only for scalping when the price hits the support area and a bounce reaction appears. If the market continues to be weak, Lana will not hold the Buy for too long. Session Notes If the price continues to be rejected around resistance areas and cannot surpass the supply zone, the adjustment scenario will have an advantage. For Friday, Lana prioritizes light trading, quick closing, avoiding holding positions too long over the weekend. Lana's Notes 🌿 Each scenario is just a probability. Lana always sets a stop loss first, chooses the appropriate volume, and is ready to skip if the price does not reach the waiting area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
2
XAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI RiskXAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI Risk Gold is slowing down as the market awaits news and liquidity is fragmented, so prioritize trading according to Volume Profile zones to choose advantageous entry points instead of chasing prices. PRIORITY SCENARIO Strategy to buy at POC and VAL zones according to Volume Profile, suitable for a medium-term perspective. Buy zone: 4314 – 4317 SL: 4307 TP: 4328 – 4345 – 4363 – 4370 Technical context: On H1, the price is accumulating and reacting around the value area. The 4314–4317 area is the POC and VAL zone, often a liquidity attraction point and likely to see buying pressure if the structure maintains support. Expected movement: Price holds the 4314–4317 zone, absorbs short-term selling pressure, then rebounds to the above TP levels. When approaching 4345, monitor reactions as this is an area prone to selling pressure. Position management: If the price quickly rises but fails to hold above 4328, consider reducing risk. If the price clearly breaks below 4307, prioritize stopping the buy scenario and wait for a deeper zone. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO Sell scalping strategy at short-term resistance zone, higher risk as the larger trend still favors buying. Sell scalping zone: 4343 – 4346 SL: 4353 TP: 4325 – 4310 – 4290 Technical context: The 4343–4346 area is a sell scalping zone on the chart, suitable for short-term trading when the price rebounds to resistance and clear rejection signals appear. Note: Sell should only be a scalping order. Do not prioritize holding long sell positions if the market is still in an accumulation phase awaiting news. MAIN REASON Volume Profile shows that POC and VAL zones are advantageous entry points during a sideways market lacking a clear trend. The 4314–4317 zone acts as a value support area for finding buy points, while 4343–4346 is suitable for sell scalping when the price rebounds to resistance. When the market awaits news, the likelihood of liquidity sweeps increases, so trading by zones will be more effective than chasing candles. MACRO CONTEXT AND CPI DATA The upcoming US CPI release during the North American session will be the main variable guiding Fed policy expectations, directly impacting USD and gold. Ahead of data risk, dovish expectations from the Fed are causing USD to lack strong upward momentum, but volatility may spike suddenly at the time of the news release, creating spikes and sweeping SL on both ends. RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING Do not open orders when the price is between zones and has not reached the exact levels of 4314–4317 or 4343–4346. Prioritize reducing volume before CPI or only maintain positions that are already profitable and manage tightly. Focus on observing price reactions at POC VAL and sell scalping zones, as these are decisive points for short-term direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD is ranging before CPI direction comes after the news.Gold is currently consolidating sideways near the upper zone around 434x as the market awaits inflation data and updates from the BOJ. Short-term volatility may occur, but the overall structure remains intact, with no clear breakout signal seen in the previous session. Before the news, the preferred strategy is to trade within the range. Traders can look for reaction setups when price approaches 4346–4348, with a mandatory stop-loss, as this area has been tested multiple times. After the news is released, the market is expected to choose a new direction. If price breaks and holds firmly above the 435x zone, the bullish trend will be confirmed. In that case, the focus shifts to buying the breakout, with targets toward the previous high and potentially a new ATH. 👉 Before the news: trade the range – react at key levels. 👉 After the news: wait for confirmation – follow the trend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
3
Chumtrades XAUUSD Sideway Trading PlanMarket View Gold is currently moving within a clear sideway structure, with no confirmed signal for a new trend. Price action suggests accumulation and rotation inside defined ranges. Sideway Structure Small H4 Box (inner range): Upper boundary: 4335 Lower boundary: 4290 This is the main short-term trading box where price is reacting most frequently. Large Sideway Box (outer range): Upper boundary: 435X Pay attention to 434X (around 4340–4342) Lower boundary: 4270 A deeper extension may reach 4256 Intraday Expectation Sideway behavior remains the primary scenario. Trading approach: Sell near the top of the range Buy near the bottom of the range No major news today, no clear breakout catalyst. Risk Note Manage risk carefully and stay alert for false breakouts. If price closes decisively outside the larger box, reassess the structure.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
XAUUSD H1 Analysis Before Key NewsXAUUSD H1 Analysis Before Key News During the Asian-European session, gold is likely to move sideways awaiting news as the market enters a sensitive phase with data and political factors, amidst a clearly formed short-term downtrend structure. PRIORITY SCENARIO Trading strategy according to the current structure, prioritizing short-term sell and buy at lower liquidity zones. Main sell zone: around 4323, coinciding with the POC of the Volume Profile. Technical context: price is moving below the equilibrium zone, clear H1 downtrend structure; the POC area often acts as a "pullback to sell" price zone. Expected movement: early European session may see a pullback of about 40–50 points, then price returns to sideways movement and faces downward pressure again. Position management: Sell should only be held short-term and tightly managed when price reacts at 4323. If price surpasses POC and holds above this zone, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell positions. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO Strategy to buy at lower liquidity zones, suitable for medium-term trading. Buy zone 1: around 4242, important VAH zone. Buy zone 2: around 4215, Buy Zone according to Volume Profile. Technical context: these are two price zones with high liquidity density, often attracting buying force when the market needs to rebalance after a decline. Expected movement: price sweeps liquidity below, creating a new accumulation base and seeking recovery opportunities. MAIN REASON On H1, a downtrend structure has formed after a distribution phase, indicating short-term advantage leans towards the sell side. Volume Profile clearly identifies POC 4323 as a reasonable pullback zone to sell, while 4242 and 4215 are price zones with high probability of buying reaction. Sideways scenario before news fits the market context awaiting important macroeconomic and political information. MACRO CONTEXT AND POLITICAL NEWS Political factors are strongly impacting the currency market, especially the USD. The US is said to have proposed a security guarantee mechanism for Ukraine similar to NATO's Article 5 to promote negotiations to end the conflict with Russia, although territorial issues have not yet reached consensus. These signals are putting weakening pressure on the USD, thereby continuing to support gold in the medium term. However, in the short term, strong volatility around news release time is something to be particularly noted. RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING Do not prioritize trading when price is between the equilibrium zone and has not reached important Volume Profile levels. Sell orders should only be considered short-term trades before news, avoiding holding through data release or important political speeches. Medium-term buy strategy will have more advantage if price reacts clearly at 4242 or deeper at 4215. Closely monitor USD fluctuations as current political news is the main driving factor.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAU/USD: Sell on Bearish OB, Buy Deep at Bullish OB1. Context & Price Structure (M30) • The price is in a downward correction after a strong previous increase. • On the retracement zone, EQH + ChoCH decrease appears → signal of weakening buying flow, prioritize "retracement to sell" in the short term. • The price is still pressed under the descending trendline, so the short-term bias remains downward until a clear break occurs. • Support Zone 4,275 is the decisive point: if held, it will rebound technically, if broken, it opens the path to the lower demand zone. 2. Key Levels (according to the chart drawn) • OB Bearish (Sell Zone): 4,308 – 4,312 (≈ 4,311.888) → supply zone + trendline confluence, prioritize watching for SELL when retracing. • Support Zone: 4,272 – 4,276 (≈ 4,275.451) → central support zone, can create a rebound/retracement. • Mid Support / Target: 4,247.624 → next target if 4,275 is broken. • OB Bullish (Buy Zone): 4,223.400 – 4,205.983 → strong demand zone, expected to sweep and reverse. 3. Trading Plan (with clear conditions) Scenario 1 – SELL on retracement at Bearish OB (main scenario) • If the price retraces to 4,308 – 4,312 and a rejection reaction appears: strong pin bar downward engulfing or ChoCH decreases again on M15/M30 • Then prioritize SELL according to the correction trend. • TP1: 4,275 • TP2: 4,247 • TP3: 4,223 (approaching OB Bullish) • Invalidation: M30 closes above 4,318 and holds above → stop SELL idea. Scenario 2 – BUY deep at Bullish OB (important scenario to catch a large retracement) • If the price breaks 4,275 with a clear M30 candle and slides down to 4,223 – 4,206. • Wait for Liquidity Sweep + reversal signal: pin bar at OB upward engulfing or ChoCH increases (M15/M30) • When confirmed, prioritize BUY. • TP1: 4,247 • TP2: 4,275 • TP3: 4,308 • Invalidation: M30 closes below 4,198 → stay out and observe. 4. Risk Management Notes • Do not chase SELL when the price is close to 4,275 (support zone). • Do not BUY early before the price hits Bullish OB and confirmation is received. • If the price reclaims strongly above the trendline + 4,312, the bias will shift to "BUY pullback" instead of "Sell retracement."
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
1
XAUUSD H1 Analysis Based on Volume ProfileXAUUSD H1 Analysis Based on Volume Profile Gold is moving sideways and consolidating around the 4,300 USD/oz area. The short-term direction remains unconfirmed and requires clear reactions at key liquidity zones. PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN SCENARIO Medium-term trend-following buy strategy at price areas with Volume Profile advantage Primary buy zone: around 4284 based on VAL Technical context: this is the lower value area where buying interest is likely to appear as the market continues to consolidate Price expectation: price holds above VAL, absorbs short-term selling pressure, and gradually rotates back toward the upper balance area Position management: If price reacts positively and H1 candles hold above the 4284 level, a medium-term bullish bias in line with the main trend can be maintained. If price breaks clearly below VAL, caution is required and deeper reaction zones should be monitored. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SCENARIO Deeper buy opportunity in the event of additional liquidity sweep Alternative buy zone: around 4242, based on the VAH of the previous value area Technical context: this area represents the upper value zone of the prior consolidation and may act as strong support during a deeper pullback Price expectation: downside liquidity sweep followed by a recovery, restoring market balance SELL SCENARIO – HIGH RISK Sell positions should only be considered as short-term trades, not a primary strategy Short-term sell zone: around 4378, based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension Note: sells should only be considered if clear price rejection signals appear. Avoid holding short positions for extended periods while the broader trend remains bullish. KEY REASONS On the H1 timeframe, price is consolidating, indicating the market needs additional liquidity before confirming the next directional move Volume Profile clearly highlights high-probability trading zones, particularly VAL at 4284 and VAH at 4242 The 4378 level represents an extended resistance zone suitable for profit-taking or short-term countertrend sells MACRO CONTEXT AND MARKET SENTIMENT Gold continues to hold strong near the 4,300 USD/oz level, supported by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and rising safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, silver has faced short-term profit-taking pressure after reaching record highs, reflecting a more cautious market tone. This week’s focus is on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Weak data may reinforce gold’s bullish trend, while strong data could trigger a short-term correction amid ongoing policy uncertainty within the Fed. RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING Avoid trading while price remains in the middle of the consolidation range and away from key Volume Profile levels. The medium-term buy strategy loses its edge if price breaks clearly below 4242 and fails to reclaim the level. Closely monitor volatility around the Nonfarm release, as sharp spikes and liquidity sweeps are highly likely.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Waiting for FVG / Liquidity Pullback, Trend-Following BUY Bias1. Market Context & Structure (H1) • Gold has completed a liquidity sweep followed by a bullish BOS, confirming that the short-term uptrend remains intact. • After the strong impulse, price is now entering a rebalancing / technical pullback phase rather than a reversal. • The overall structure remains Higher High – Higher Low, favoring BUY strategies aligned with the dominant trend. 2. Key Technical Zones on the Chart • Resistance / Supply Zone 1: 4,359 – 4,360 → A previously strong reaction zone, where short-term corrections may occur. • Resistance / Supply Zone 2: 4,394 → Fibonacci 0.786 extension area, prone to profit-taking or upper liquidity sweeps. • iFVG – Pullback Zone: 4,297 – 4,300 → Inefficiency left during the bullish impulse, prioritized for the first BUY reaction. • Liquidity Buy Zone: 4,267 → Resting liquidity below, where a deeper sweep may occur before trend continuation. 3. Trading Scenarios – Captain Vincent Style 🔹 Primary Scenario – BUY at iFVG / Liquidity Buy (Preferred) • Expect price to pull back from the 4,35x area toward 4,297 – 4,300 (iFVG) or deeper into 4,267 (Liquidity Buy). • At the BUY zone, wait for confirmation signals: – Strong rejection wicks – Bullish engulfing – Bullish ChoCH on M15–H1 • Preferred BUY Zones: – BUY 1: 4,297 – 4,300 – BUY 2 (deeper): 4,267 • Targets: – TP1: 4,359 – TP2: 4,394 – TP3 extension: continuation if 4,394 is broken. • Invalidation: – H1 close below 4,255 → short-term bullish structure weakens. 🔹 Secondary Scenario – Short-Term SELL Reaction at Supply • If price rallies directly into 4,359 – 4,394 without a clear pullback, a short-term SELL reaction may appear. • SELLs are scalp / counter-trend only, not the primary scenario. • SELL target: pullback toward iFVG 4,297. 4. Risk & Management Notes • Avoid FOMO BUY at high resistance zones. • Prioritize BUY entries at discounted areas (FVG – Liquidity). • Main bias remains BUY on pullbacks; SELLs are only technical reactions. • Adjust position sizing carefully as the market is in an expansion phase.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
3
XAUUSD H4 Medium Term Rising Channel and Key Liquidity ZonesXAUUSD H4 – Medium-Term Rising Channel and Key Liquidity Zones Gold reacted sharply after touching the trendline, with the primary focus next week on buying pullbacks in line with the dominant trend PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN STRATEGY Trend-following buy strategy on a corrective move into key support and liquidity areas Primary buy zone: 4175 – 4203 Technical context: this area represents a previously validated support zone and a clear pool of downside liquidity Price expectation: a corrective dip into support, absorption of selling pressure, followed by a potential rebound back toward the upper balance area Position management: If price shows a strong reaction and H4 candles hold above the support zone, maintaining a swing-long bias remains favoured. If price breaks decisively below support, risk should be reduced and deeper levels monitored. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY STRATEGY Deeper pullback buy opportunity near the lower trendline of the rising channel Alternative buy zone: near the lower boundary of the rising channel, aligned with long-term liquidity Technical context: this area acts as the last line of defence for the medium-term bullish structure and is suitable for longer-term positioning Price expectation: a deeper liquidity sweep followed by recovery, reaffirming the rising channel KEY TECHNICAL POINTS On the H4 timeframe, price continues to trade within a rising channel. The sharp 100-point drop after touching the upper trendline highlights profit-taking pressure at higher levels The 4175 area and the lower channel trendline remain the most important liquidity zones for trend-aligned buying Upper resistance and the FVG-liquidity zone are better suited for trade management rather than aggressive new longs MACRO AND MARKET CONTEXT Markets are reacting to growing expectations of a potential shift in future Federal Reserve leadership and policy direction. The probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair has increased, alongside comments indicating a preference for significantly lower interest rates. Such expectations may remain supportive for gold in the medium term, although short-term technical corrections should still be respected after strong upside moves. RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING Avoid chasing price near the upper boundary of the rising channel. Any sell positions should be treated as short-term countertrend trades and only considered with clear rejection signals. The bullish scenario weakens if price breaks and fails to reclaim the rising channel structure. Remain alert to volatility around policy-related headlines and key economic data, as liquidity sweeps are likely.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
4
XAUUSD H1 Volume Profile and Key Price AreasXAUUSD H1 – Volume Profile and Key Price Areas Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with the primary strategy focused on buying pullbacks PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN STRATEGY Buy-the-dip approach aligned with the dominant trend using Volume Profile levels Expected buy zone: around 4253 based on VAH Short-term range to monitor: 4263 – 4285 Price expectation: rebound from VAH toward the upper range before further expansion Position management: If price holds above the 4263 area and shows clear bullish reaction, maintaining long exposure remains favorable. If price is strongly rejected near 4285, risk should be reduced as this zone represents an important short-term resistance. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SETUP Short-term countertrend opportunity at an extended resistance level Sell zone for the alternative scenario: around 4310 at the Fibonacci extension This setup is only considered if clear rejection signals appear at the level KEY REASONS The bullish structure on the H1 timeframe remains intact Volume Profile highlights the VAH near 4253 as a high-probability reaction zone The 4310 area represents an extended resistance suitable for profit-taking or short-term pullback reactions MACRO CONTEXT The Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle and maintains a dovish stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting gold prices. Geopolitical tensions and concerns about US economic slowdown further reinforce safe-haven demand. Markets are now focused on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report, where weaker data could drive further upside, while stronger data may trigger a short-term correction. RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING Avoid chasing price while gold trades within the 4263 – 4285 range. The bullish scenario becomes invalid if price breaks clearly below the support area beneath the VAH. Expect increased volatility around major economic data releases and manage exposure accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
XAU/USD : Buy at OB 4,19x – 4,18x, Targets 4,24x → 4,26x 1. Market Structure (H1) Gold is retracing back into bullish structure after breaking a series of bullish ChoCH and BoS, forming a new high around 4,24x. The current decline is only a technical pullback because: • Price is returning to the Buy Order Block at 4,188 – 4,196. • This zone aligns with trendline support and the demand base that fueled the previous impulse. • The macro structure remains bullish as long as H1 does not close below 4,188. → This is a clear pullback–continuation setup: wait for price to retrace into discount, then target higher zones. 2. Key Levels 🔹 Demand Zone (Buy Zone): 4,188 – 4,196 • Bullish OB • Trendline support • Priority BUY area 🔹 Resistance 1: 4,217 – 4,218 • Multiple rejections • Breakout → next bullish leg 🔹 Resistance 2: 4,238 – 4,239 • 0.5–0.618 Fibo confluence • Possible mild sell reaction 🔹 Liquidity & Targets: • 4,259 → Fibo 1.272 • 4,278 → Fibo 1.618 + resting liquidity 3. Trading Plan 🔸 Main Scenario – BUY at OB 4,19x – 4,18x Conditions: • Price taps 4,188 – 4,196 • Reversal signals: pin bar, engulfing, or bullish ChoCH Targets: TP1: 4,217 TP2: 4,238 TP3: 4,259 TP4: 4,278 Invalidation: • H1 close below 4,185 → stay out. 🔸 Alternate Scenario – Price goes up without retesting OB If price holds above 4,210 and breaks 4,217: • Wait for retest of 4,217 • BUY continuation toward 4,238 → 4,259 → 4,278 Market Outlook Gold is accumulating and building a base for a stronger breakout. The OB Buy zone 4,19x – 4,18x remains the highest-probability reversal area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
1
XAU/USD: Buy at OB 4.18x–4.17x; Sell on reaction.✍️ Captain Vincent – SMC Flow Analysis 📊 Market Structure (H1) Gold continues to accumulate within the range of 4,200–4,220 after failing to break the recent peak. The structure shows: • Multiple ChoCH – BoS declines → selling pressure still leads in the short term. • However, the OB Buy 4,184–4,170 zone remains a crucial structural bottom, where buyers react strongly once swept. • Above, the market leaves a Liquidity Sell area at 4,261, a natural target if gold gathers enough liquidity below. → The current phase is liquidity gathering before making a big move. 💎 Key Levels – Price Zones to Watch 🔸 Resistance / Sell Zone • 4,218 → intraday resistance, price reacts multiple times. • 4,243–4,244 → confluence of sideways peak + old BoS. • Liquidity Sell: 4,261 → extended target if price breaks strongly upwards. 🔸 Support / Buy Zone • 4,200–4,201 → short-term price balance zone. • OB Buy 4,184–4,170 → strong demand, where the previous trend initiated. • If breaking 4,170 → price may sweep deeper but remains in the ideal discount zone for BUY hunting. 🎯 Trading Plan – Clear and Easy to Follow 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Prioritize BUY at OB 4,184–4,170 Expect the market to create a sweep below 4,200, touching OB Buy to gather liquidity before bouncing up. BUY Conditions: • Price touches 4,184–4,170 • Reversal signals appear on M15–H1: pin bar, engulfing, rising ChoCH • Decline slows down or buying force becomes clear Targets: • TP1: 4,190 • TP2: 4,200 • TP3: 4,215 • TP4 extended: 4,261 (Liquidity Sell) Invalidation: H1 closes below 4,165 → stay out and reassess the structure. 2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Short SELL when price retests 4.24x If the price does not drop immediately but pulls up: SELL Conditions: • Retest 4,243–4,244 • Strong reaction appears: rejection wick, declining ChoCH • Must not close H1 above 4,250 Targets: • TP1: 4,235 • TP2: 4,225 • TP3: OB Buy 4,184–4,170 Invalidation: H1 closes above 4,250 → stop SELL, shift bias to observe breakout. 3️⃣ Extended Scenario – Sweep peak 4,261 Only activate when: • Price bounces strongly from OB Buy • Clear breakout of 4,243 zone • Structure forms HL → HH At that point, gold will tend to run straight up to sweep liquidity at 4,261 before the market chooses a new direction. ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Do not BUY when price is still within the resistance zone 4,218–4,243. • SELL is only a short-term strategy, do not go against the major trend if a breakout occurs. • OB Buy 4,184–4,170 is the zone with the highest probability of triggering an upward wave.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
XAUUSD – Brian | After the rate cutXAUUSD – Brian | After the rate cut, Volume Profile still favours further downside 1. Market snapshot After the rate cut, gold saw a bounce but failed to sustain the upside and is still hovering below last week’s highs. In the Asian session, price only ticked up slightly before being sold off again – a sign that buying pressure is not particularly strong at these levels. Risk-on sentiment has returned and the USD is seeing a modest recovery, which is weighing on XAU/USD. That said, expectations for the Fed to maintain a dovish tone could still cap USD strength in the medium term. Overall, in the short term Brian still leans towards a downside move, preferring to sell into liquidity above rather than chase buys. 2. Volume Profile view – Key levels to watch On the H1 chart, Volume Profile highlights three main areas: VAL – Buy scalping zone: around 4,207 → Current lower value area, where a short technical bounce may appear. Liquidity / Sell zone: around 4,222 → Liquidity pocket above, lining up with VAH and a volume cluster – an attractive area to look for sells if price is pushed back up for a retest. Deeper buy zone: around 4,166 → Broader demand area below; if price flushes lower after sweeping liquidity, this is where dip-buying interest may show up. 3. Trade scenarios (for reference) Scenario 1 – Sell at the 4,222 liquidity zone (primary idea) Idea: Wait for price to retrace into the 4,222 liquidity zone and then look for rejection signals on H1/M15. Sell zone: 4,220–4,223 Suggested SL: Above 4,230 Targets: TP1: 4,207 (VAL) TP2: 4,190–4,185 TP3: 4,170–4,166 (deeper buy zone) This setup follows the current bearish bias, using the logic of “sell the rally into high-volume + liquidity zones”. Scenario 2 – Light buys at VAL 4,207 & buy zone 4,166 Scalp buy at VAL: Entry zone: 4,204–4,207 Target: bounce back towards 4,217–4,220 and then exit, not a long hold. Buy at the deeper 4,166 zone (cleaner level): Entry zone: 4,164–4,168 SL: Below 4,158 TP: 4,190 → 4,210 if a clear bullish candle reaction forms and the Fed does not turn overly hawkish. Both buy scenarios are purely short-term corrective plays, so position size should be kept modest as the main bias remains to the downside. Be patient and only start thinking about sells once price tags the 4,222 area – avoid forcing entries when price is stuck in the middle of the range. In summary: Selling around 4,222 is the primary plan, while buys at 4,207 and 4,166 are secondary strategies that only come into play if there is a clear reaction from Volume Profile and price action.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD – Brian | Volume Profile before FedXAUUSD – Brian | Volume Profile before Fed: watch for a rebound to sell down Market snapshot Ahead of the Fed's interest rate announcement, gold is moving sideways within a fairly wide range, not yet choosing a clear direction. In the H1 timeframe, the price fluctuates around the value area, making it very suitable for short-term trading according to the Volume Profile instead of trying to predict the meeting outcome. Volume Profile – Key price areas Nearest VAL: around 4.197 – the bottom of the current value area, where there was previous buying support. Above, the FVG area + VAH/POC cluster is around 4.210 – this is an "air pocket" area where selling pressure can easily appear when the price fills the liquidity gap. Below, the target for a downward wave if the Fed is not too dovish is around 4.13x (area 4.130–4.135) – coinciding with the old buy zone on the chart. Trading scenario according to Volume Profile Watch for a light Buy reaction at VAL 4.197 If the price slides to 4.197 and a nice rejection candle appears on H1/M15, a short scalp buy can be considered: Idea: capture the rebound from VAL back to the middle/top of the value area, do not hold the position long. Sell when the price fills FVG around 4.210 (priority scenario) After the rebound from VAL, the FVG area 4.210 will be where Brian prioritizes watching for a Sell: Reference sell entry: around 4.208–4.212 TP1: 4.185–4.180 TP2: 4.165–4.160 TP3: area 4.13x (4.130–4.135) if a strong sell-off occurs after the Fed SL should be placed neatly above the FVG/VAH area (e.g., 4.218–4.220), avoid setting it too far. Fed context – Why trade cautiously? The focus this week is the FOMC meeting: The market is waiting to see if Chairman Powell can create enough consensus to continue cutting interest rates with very few members opposing, similar to the previous 25 bps cut. If the Fed maintains a dovish tone → USD weakens, yields cool down, gold is likely to bounce back after the sweep. If Powell signals a "hawkish rate cut" (concern about inflation, cut less – talk tough) → yields rise, gold may complete a deep decline to the 4.13x area before stabilizing again.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAUUSD – Brian | H1 Volume ProfileXAUUSD – Brian | H1 Volume Profile: risk of deep decline as market awaits PCE data Market snapshot On H1, gold is declining in a rather "clean" structure, continuously creating lower highs and lower lows. The 4.175 area is currently the nearest support – if breached, the decline could extend another 50–60 points to lower areas. Price remains below 4.250 USD, as the market awaits PCE data (Fed's preferred inflation measure) to find a clearer direction. Technical map – Volume Profile & price areas Important areas today: 4.210 – 4.200 – 4.175 – 4.164 – 4.133 4.210–4.200: upper area, coinciding with the nearest POC/VAH cluster – selling pressure likely when price retraces here. 4.175: short-term support + area with sell-side liquidity; if this area is lost, price could be pulled to a deeper demand cluster. 4.164–4.133: potential Buy zone in a deep decline scenario – Volume Profile shows significant buying occurred around this area previously. In short: on H1, the trend is down, prioritize selling according to volume; consider buying only when price falls to a lower discount area. Trading scenario reference (Not personalized advice – adjust volume & SL according to your account) Scenario 1 – Sell following the downtrend structure (priority) Sell area: 4.210–4.200 (POC/VAH + technical retracement area) Idea: Wait for price to retrace to this area, observe H1/M15 for rejection candles (long upper tail, pin bar, engulfing…) before activating a Sell order. Suggested take profit areas: TP1: 4.175 TP2: 4.164 TP3: 4.133 (in case of a strong 50–60 point decline) Scenario 2 – Buy at deep discount area Buy area: 4.164–4.133 Idea: Only consider buying when price has "dumped" deeply enough into the buy zone, with clear reversal candles on H1. At that point, this is a technical retracement play, not trying to catch the bottom of a major trend. Suggested take profit areas: TP1: return to 4.175 TP2: 4.200 Macroeconomic context – Why is gold still hesitant? Gold recorded a slight increase on Friday, but remains within the narrow trading range of the week. Expectations of a dovish Fed continue to pressure the USD, generally supporting gold in the medium term. However, buyers are waiting for US PCE data before taking larger positions: If PCE cools significantly → reinforces the story of an early Fed rate cut → gold could easily rebound. If PCE remains stubborn → market fears a "hawkish rate cut" scenario from the Fed → yields may rise, adding selling pressure on gold. Risk management For the Sell scenario, avoid chasing price in the middle of the area – prioritize waiting for a retracement to POC/VAH before entering, with a tight SL above the 4.210–4.215 area. If participating in the Buy play at 4.164–4.133, consider splitting TP and moving SL to breakeven as soon as TP1 is reached to avoid constant chart monitoring.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
XAU/USD hits OB Sell zone; watch for trend confirmation.◆ Market Context The market is in a phase of forming lower highs after a strong drop from the 4,248 area. The most recent volatility shows the price creating a bearish CHoCH, then confirming a Break of Structure (BOS) — indicating a shift from equilibrium to a bearish bias. Each recent rally has stopped below previous highs, proving that selling pressure continues to dominate. ◆ SMC & Price Action • After BOS, the market often returns to test the Order Block (OB) area before continuing the main trend. • On the chart, the OB Sell is located at 4,215 – 4,217, which is the point of the last push candle before the strong drop. • This area also coincides with the short-term resistance zone and previous price behavior shows multiple reactions from sellers. If the price approaches the OB Sell without forming a reversal structure, the likelihood of continuing to decline is high. Liquidity above: • 4,230 • 4,241 • 4,248 → These are areas that may be swept before the price reverses. ◆ Main Trading Scenario ➤ Sell Scenario (priority) • Waiting zone: 4,215 – 4,217 (OB Sell) • Condition: appearance of price rejection, reversal pattern, or clear rejection candle • Targets: ▪ 4,188 ▪ 4,172 ▪ 4,165 – 4,164 (deep support & bottom liquidity) • Stop loss: above 4,230 → This is the most suitable scenario with the current structure. ➤ Extended Scenario (liquidity sweep before decline) If the price surpasses OB Sell and heads towards liquidity 4,230 – 4,241 – 4,248: • Observe signs of weakening • Wait for a reversal pattern • Look for SELL entry points in the above areas with targets similar to the main scenario This is common behavior when the market wants to gather liquidity before pushing the trend. ➤ Buy Scenario (opposite – only execute with strong confirmation) Buy is only suitable when: • Price breaks the nearest bearish structure • Closes above 4,230 and holds • Re-test of the 4,215 – 4,217 area fails In that case, the buy target will aim for 4,241 and 4,248. However, this is not yet activated. ◆ Summary • The short-term trend still leans towards bearish after BOS. • The 4,215 – 4,217 area is crucial for observing price reactions. • Selling remains a reasonable strategy until the market breaks 4,230 with a clear signal. • Downside targets are at 4,172 → 4,165.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Goldscale-Capital
XAU/USD H1 Plan: SELL at OB, BUY at Liquidity1. Market Structure (H1) Gold is in a corrective phase after breaking the previous upward structure. From the nearest peak, the price continuously creates downward BoS waves, confirming that selling pressure is in control in the short term. Currently, the price is moving within a descending channel and retesting the trendline multiple times but has not been able to breakout. This supports the scenario of the price continuing to complete a deeper decline to gather liquidity before forming a major recovery wave. 2. Important technical zones on the chart 🔹 OB – Sell Zone: 4,190 – 4,197 Confluence of Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 of the most recent decline. This is the H1 supply zone where the price previously broke the downward structure → prioritize observing SELL when the price retraces. 🔹 Liquidity Buy Zone: 4,154 – 4,163 Liquidity cluster located just below the nearest bottom. This is the area where the market is likely to create a liquidity sweep before reversing upwards. 🔹 Deep Liquidity Zone: 4,115 – 4,12x Deep liquidity zone, confirmed by multiple old bottoms formed since the beginning of the month. If the price is pushed down here, this will be a very strong BUY zone for the next major recovery wave. 3. Trading scenarios according to structure – clear & easy to follow 🔸 Scenario 1 – SELL from OB 4,19x (main scenario) Activation conditions: Price retraces to OB Sell zone 4,19x Appearance of reversal signals M15–H1: strong rejection candles, ChoCH down, engulfing Targets: TP1: 4,163 (Liquidity) TP2: 4,154 TP3 extended: 4,12x – 4,115 Note: This OB zone is a beautiful confluence – if the price reacts strongly, there is a high chance the market will complete the decline according to the model. 🔸 Scenario 2 – BUY according to Liquidity Sweep (priority after SELL) After completing the decline to liquidity zones: BUY Zone 1: 4,154 – 4,163 Wait for bottom sweep & ChoCH up → BUY according to recovery wave BUY Zone 2: 4,115 – 4,12x (strongest Buy) If the price breaks through the Liquidity zone 4,15x This is the zone where the largest buying force may appear → expect to create a new H1 bottom Targets for both BUY zones: TP1: 4,195 (OB Sell retest) TP2: 4,210 TP3 extended: 4,23x – 4,24x Further: 4,25x – 4,27x (Fibo 1.272 – 1.618) 4. Important notes & risk management Do not BUY when the price is standing in the descending channel – wait for sweep & confirmation. SELL is only valid when the price hits exactly OB 4,19x, avoid FOMO selling in the middle of the zone. BUY is invalid if H1 breaks deeply below 4,110. Strong upward scenario only activates when H1 closes above 4,200.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
XAU/USD: Gold Rejected at 4,228, Risks Drop to 4,172Gold is struggling in its recovery efforts as prices continue to react negatively at the resistance zone of 4,228. Although the USD shows slight signs of weakening, the overall market sentiment remains cautious as investors await inflation data and new signals from the Fed next week. In this context, the short-term structure indicates that gold is leaning towards a corrective downtrend – aligning with the sell strategy on the rebound. 📊 MMF Technical Outlook (M30) 🔸 1. Rising Wedge Pattern Has Broken Down Gold has just broken the “rising wedge” pattern – a clear signal of weakening momentum. The current rebound is merely a retest of the broken structure zone, easily forming a lower high → continued decline. 🔸 2. Important Supply Zone 4,226 – 4,229 → Supply Zone + the starting point of the previous strong decline If the price touches this zone with weak signals, sellers are likely to regain dominance. 🔸 3. Liquidity Zone – Price Attraction Target 4,172 – 4,173 → Liquidity zone + strong demand + wedge bottom This is the zone where the market is likely to pull the price during the session. 🎯 MMF Trading Plan – Priority to SELL ▶️ Main Scenario – SELL on the rebound If the price rebounds to the supply zone: 🔹 SELL zone: 4,226 – 4,229 🔹 SL: above 4,235 🔹 TP1: 4,190 🔹 TP2: 4,172 (main target) Reason: Price retests the broken resistance + downward momentum remains strong → attractive R:R entry. ▶️ Alternative Scenario – Price drops directly If the price does not rebound sufficiently to 4,228: 🔹 Wait for a small retest around 4,205 – 4,208 → SELL 🔹 Target remains 4,172 🧭 MMF Daily Bias Preferred trend: Bearish as long as the price is below 4,228 Strategy: Sell on the rebound – target 4,172 Invalidation: M30 candle closes above 4,235 Note: Volatility may increase near important US news.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
XAU/USD: Pullback to OB & Fibo, then upward trend!1. Market Cont1. Market Context In the M30 timeframe, the price is in a correction phase after forming a strong bottom area around 4,192–4,195. From there, the market has generated a series of positive signals: the price line gradually moves higher, with consecutive CHoCH appearances, indicating weakening selling pressure and a shift in cash flow towards accumulation. The resistance area of 4,230–4,240 remains a significant barrier. If it is broken with a clear closing candle, the upward structure will be confirmed, and the price may expand to higher areas. 2. Key Price Areas (SMC Mapping) Upper Resistance 4,230–4,240: strong reaction area, acting as the first barrier. 4,255–4,256: the next expansion area when the upward trend is confirmed. 4,289–4,290: the final target in the expansion structure of the upward wave. Support Area – Buying Point 4,200–4,216: OB combined with Fibo area, where the price may adjust to regenerate liquidity before rising. 4,192–4,195: strong low area, where the market has reacted strongly before. 3. Fibo & Price Action In the current upward move, the price has approached the 0.786 Fibo and encountered resistance at 4,230–4,240. A correction to the 0.382–0.5 area (corresponding to OB 4,200–4,216) would be reasonable before the market continues to retest higher areas. Notable price action signals: The consecutive appearance of bullish CHoCH indicates that buying pressure is in control. The 4,192 low is still protected and acts as an important low of the recovery phase. If the price retests the OB cleanly, this is a good trigger point for a new upward move. 4. Trading Plan Preferred Scenario: Buy according to structure Buy Waiting Area: 4,200–4,216 (OB + Fibo) Stop Loss: below 4,192 Targets: 4,230–4,240 4,255 4,289–4,290 Confirmation Conditions The price needs to clearly break the resistance area of 4,230–4,240 to trigger upward momentum. The retest of the OB must occur with reduced liquidity and a confirming candle pattern. 5. Summary The market structure shows a short-term upward trend is forming. The price is likely to adjust to the 4,200–4,216 area before continuing upwards to 4,240 and further to 4,255–4,290. The appropriate strategy is to wait to buy in the OB & Fibo area under the condition of clear confirmation signals.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Goldscale-Capital
XAU/USD: Gold Consolidates, Awaiting Pullback for Breakout📊 Market Structure (H1) Gold is moving within a converging triangle pattern – with the bottom being pushed higher by buying pressure, while the top is continuously blocked by the H1 descending trendline. After the previous strong decline, the market has consecutively created bullish ChoCH , indicating that capital flow is starting to return, but the pivotal supply remains at the OB Bearish 4.23x area – where the price is currently stuck. Currently, the price is testing the upper edge of the triangle + supply area, which is primarily used for distribution and liquidity sweep. → Not an optimal area for FOMO BUY. 💎 Key Levels – Important Areas • OB Bearish – 4.23x: confluence with descending trendline → high probability area for strong reaction or Liquidity Sweep. • FVG – 4.21x: H1 price gap, the market tends to return to fill before continuing. • OB Bullish – Buy Zone – 4.201: H1 demand + lower edge of current range → priority area to observe BUY according to trend. • Liquidity Buy – 4.170: lower liquidity area → price may sweep deep before bouncing strongly if the medium-term uptrend remains effective. • Upper Target – 4.25x: expanded target if gold successfully breaks the converging triangle. 🎯 Trading Plan – Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Priority Scenario: Pullback to OB Bullish If the OB Bearish 4.23x area reacts (wick rejection, reversal pattern, weakening momentum), expect the price to retreat to: → FVG 4.21x → OB Bullish 4.201 At the 4.20x area, if a bullish ChoCH / engulfing / strong pin bar appears, this will be a reasonable BUY area according to the trend. Suggested TP: • TP1: FVG 4.21x • TP2: Retest OB Bearish 4.23x • TP3 expanded: 4.25x area if price breaks the triangle Invalidation: H1 closes below 4.195 → stay out and wait for reaction at Liquidity 4.170. 2️⃣ Alternative Scenario: Deep Sweep to Liquidity Buy If OB Bullish 4.20x does not hold and the price breaks down strongly, do not catch the falling knife. → Wait for gold to reach Liquidity Buy 4.170 → Observe reaction: long wick, selling pressure depletes, new HL formation… Only BUY again when the signal is clear. If the 4.170 area is broken strongly by an H1 candle → temporary uptrend structure loses effectiveness, reduce volume or stay out until the market stabilizes. ⚠️ Risk Management This is a trading plan based on an idea – not an immediate entry signal. Do not BUY directly at the 4.23x resistance area. Be patient for a pullback to the discount area (4.20x – 4.17x) and always set clear risk. “Liquidity tells the truth — structure confirms the path.” ⚜️ ⏰ Timeframe: H1 ✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent