#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 16/01/2026Based on the current price structure and the levels marked on the chart, the market is expected to open flat with no major deviation from the previous session’s range. Nifty is currently trading near a well-defined demand–supply zone, indicating indecision and consolidation rather than a strong directional bias. As long as the index holds above the 25,750–25,800 support area, there is a possibility of a technical pullback or reversal on the upside. A sustained move above this zone can attract fresh buying interest, with upside targets placed around 25,850, followed by 25,900 and 25,950 levels. This zone will act as an important intraday trigger, and confirmation should ideally come with strong price acceptance and volume.
On the downside, the 25,700 level remains a critical breakdown point. If Nifty fails to sustain above this level and slips below 25,700, selling pressure may intensify, opening the path for a decline towards 25,650, 25,550, and potentially 25,500. This makes the lower support band extremely important for intraday traders, as a breakdown below it can quickly change the market sentiment to bearish. Until a clear breakout or breakdown is seen, the overall structure suggests range-bound movement, and traders are advised to be patient and wait for confirmation near key levels rather than taking aggressive positions at market open.
Overall, the market context remains neutral to mildly cautious, with flat opening expectations and stock-specific or level-based opportunities likely to dominate the session. Strict risk management is recommended, along with partial profit booking near targets, as volatility may increase once the index moves decisively out of the current consolidation range.
Techincalanalysis
Gold Before CPI: Top or Trap?Catching Gold’s Top Before CPI: A Good Trade or a Psychological Trap?
🧭 1. STRATEGIC CONTEXT
Primary trend: GOLD remains in an uptrend; the higher-timeframe structure is still intact.
Macro backdrop:
CPI tonight may cause short-term volatility.
However, geopolitics is currently a stronger driver than CPI.
Key geopolitical risks:
Greenland tensions → escalating global strategic rivalry.
Protests in Iran, power and internet cuts → rising Middle East risks.
👉 Strategic implication:
Gold continues to be supported as a safe-haven asset → pullbacks are for buying, not for chasing shorts.
📊 2. CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE
Price is:
Holding the ascending trendline
Consolidating in a box, compressing ahead of CPI
Market condition:
High probability of false breakouts
Top-catching traps are very likely before the news
📍 3. KEY PRICE LEVELS
🔴 RESISTANCE
4,680 – 4,700
→ Previous high / ATH zone
→ Reactive sells only if clear rejection appears
4,655 – 4,660
→ Intermediate resistance, easily swept pre-CPI
🟣 CONSOLIDATION BOX
4,595 – 4,630
→ Sideways range ahead of CPI
→ No FOMO inside the box
🟢 SUPPORT
4,545 – 4,550 → Major confluence support
4,480 → Medium-term support, trendline retest
4,420 → Deep support, last bullish structure zone
📝 4. IMPORTANT NOTES
Higher CPI:
May trigger a technical pullback
❌ Does NOT automatically mean a top
Lower / in-line CPI:
Gold may consolidate above highs and break ATH
Selling before CPI:
→ Reactive scalps only, no holding
Buying:
→ Only when price reaches key zones with clear reaction
🎯 5. STRATEGIC MINDSET
❌ Don’t force top-catching while geopolitics supports gold
✅ Focus on risk management – wait for zones – wait for confirmation
🧠 Before CPI: survival > profit
Kalyan Jewellers – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout (1-Day)Kalyan Jewellers is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, indicating a period of consolidation as buyers and sellers balance out. A confirmed breakout above the upper trendline could signal the start of a new upward move, while a break below support may lead to further weakness.
At the current market price (CMP) around ₹500,
The key levels to watch are:
• Support: ₹446, ₹393
• Resistance: ₹530, ₹575
Company Overview
Kalyan Jewellers is one of India’s leading organized jewelry retailers, known for its extensive network of showrooms across the country and strong brand presence. The company operates in the high-growth consumer discretionary segment, benefiting from rising income levels, wedding demand, and festive purchases. Its fundamentals are supported by a diversified geographic footprint, consistent same-store sales growth, and a focus on customer trust and quality assurance.
A sustained breakout with higher-than-average volume could confirm trend direction and attract further buying interest.
For analysis of any stock, feel free to comment the stock name below.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market investments are subject to risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the use of this information.
UGRO Capital Ltd – Acending Triangle with Fundamental TailwindsTimeframe: Daily (1D)
Pattern: Ascending Triangle (Developing) – bullish continuation setup not yet confirmed.
Price Action Insight:
UGRO is forming an ascending triangle — a consolidation where higher lows push against a near‑horizontal resistance zone. A decisive breakout above the ₹189‑195 range on strong volume will signal trend continuation. Conversely, a break Trend line Breakout below key supports at ₹165 & ₹148 could trigger deeper correction.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance Zones: ₹189–195 (primary) | ₹209 | ₹242
Support Zones: ₹165 | ₹148 | Major Base: ₹129
Recent News & Strategic Highlights
• Profectus Capital Acquisition: UGRO’s all‑cash ₹1,400 crore acquisition is expected to strengthen its lending franchise and portfolio diversity.
• Rights & Capital Raise: Up to ₹1,315 crore raised via convertible debentures and rights to support growth and reduce cost of funds. ET
• Leadership Positioning: Promotion of Anuj Pandey to CEO signals strategic continuity and risk‑focused leadership. ET
• Social Impact in MSME Lending: ~78% borrowers are first‑generation entrepreneurs gaining access to formal credit. ET
For analysis of any stock, feel free to comment the stock name below.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market investments are subject to risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses arising from the use of this information.
Reliance Industries Ltd – 1D Chart Update || Pattern-DrivenTimeframe: Daily (1D) || Pattern: Cup & Handle (Bullish)
LTP: ₹1,592
Reliance Industries is showing a classic Cup & Handle formation on the daily chart, indicating strong accumulation and a potential continuation of the prevailing uptrend. Price action remains constructive, supported by rising volumes and positive momentum indicators.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: ₹1,433 | ₹1,335
Resistance: ₹1,709 | ₹1,863
A sustained move above the handle breakout zone can open the door for further upside toward the mentioned resistance levels, while the supports act as crucial demand zones on any corrective pullback.
Company & Sector Updates:
Reliance continues to benefit from strength across its diversified businesses. The Oil-to-Chemicals segment is supported by favorable refining economics, while Jio and Retail remain long-term growth drivers. Strategic focus on technology, digital expansion, and new-age businesses like AI and FMCG strengthens the company’s future outlook. Market participants are also closely watching developments around value unlocking and upcoming strategic initiatives.
View:
Overall structure and fundamentals indicate a positive bias, with trend continuation likely as long as the stock holds above key support levels.
For analysis of any stock, feel free to comment the stock name below.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market investments are subject to risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses arising from the use of this information.
CONCOR – 1D | 10-Year Support & Trendline BreakoutCompany Intro:
Container Corporation of India Ltd (CONCOR) is a Navratna PSU and India’s largest integrated logistics company, operating inland container depots (ICDs), container freight stations (CFS), and rail-based logistics services. It plays a key role in India’s EXIM trade and domestic freight movement.
Technical View (Daily Chart):
CONCOR has broken out above a 10-year long-term support trendline, indicating a structural trend reversal, The stock has given a strong close near ₹525, confirming bullish intent and acceptance above the breakout zone.
Levels to Watch:
CMP: ₹523
Immediate Resistance / Target: ₹600
Breakout Confirmation Level: ₹525 (strong close above this keeps momentum positive)
Immediate Support: ₹480
Major Support: ₹446
As long as the stock holds above ₹480, the trend remains positive with a higher probability of moving towards ₹600 in the near term.
Positive Triggers
Government’s continued push for rail-led logistics, DFC (Dedicated Freight Corridor) and multimodal transport benefits CONCOR directly.
Volume recovery in EXIM and domestic logistics improves revenue visibility.
PSU logistics stocks are seeing renewed investor interest due to valuation comfort and long-term infrastructure growth.
For analysis of any stock, feel free to comment the stock name below.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market investments are subject to risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses arising from the use of this information.
XAUUSD H4 – Trading the Uptrend Channel with LiquidityXAUUSD H4 – Trading the Uptrend Channel with Liquidity and Volume Profile
Gold remains bullish on the H4 timeframe and continues to respect a well-defined rising channel. With price approaching extended areas, the higher-probability approach is to buy pullbacks at value zones and treat the upper boundary as a short-term profit-taking area rather than chasing momentum.
TECHNICAL CONTEXT
The uptrend structure is still intact, with price forming higher lows inside the channel.
After a strong impulsive leg, the market is now consolidating and rebalancing, which favours execution around Volume Profile and FVG zones.
The upper channel boundary often acts as a short-term exhaustion area, while value zones below offer better risk-to-reward long entries.
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN PLAN
Buy the pullback at key value and liquidity zones
Buy POC: around 4485
Buy zone FVG support: around 4368
Rationale:
The 4485 POC is a high-volume area where price frequently reacts during pullbacks.
The 4368 FVG aligns with channel support and represents an imbalance area that price often revisits before continuation.
Expected behaviour:
A pullback into POC or the FVG zone, followed by a bullish reaction, can set up the next leg higher within the channel.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY PLAN
Short-term sell scalp near the upper boundary
Sell scalping zone: around 4600
Note:
This is strictly a short-term scalp if price reaches the upper channel boundary and shows clear rejection. It is not a trend reversal thesis.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The H4 trend remains bullish, but the channel range is wide, making chasing price riskier.
Volume Profile and FVG zones define higher-probability execution areas.
The best edge comes from buying pullbacks at value, while treating 4600 as a potential short-term reaction zone.
XAUUSD H1 – Trading Liquidity During the Year-End SessionXAUUSD H1 – Trading Liquidity During the Year-End Session
Gold remains in a bullish structure, but this is a holiday market with weaker liquidity as many banks are closed. The best approach here is to trade around liquidity and value areas, rather than chasing price during extended moves.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
On H1, price continues to respect an ascending channel, moving through expansion and pullback phases.
After the latest strong push, the market is now consolidating and rotating, which typically favours level-based execution.
Momentum remains positive overall, but it is not accelerating aggressively, suggesting selective buying and a higher probability of liquidity sweeps during thin conditions.
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN PLAN
Buy the pullback at key liquidity zones inside the bullish channel
Buy liquidity zone: 4475 – 4478
Buy POC zone: 4409 – 4412
Technical rationale:
The 4475–4478 area is a near-term liquidity pocket within the channel where buyers often step in during technical pullbacks.
The 4409–4412 region aligns with the Volume Profile POC, a value area where price frequently stabilises and rebalances supply and demand.
Expected price behaviour:
A corrective move into these liquidity zones, followed by a bullish reaction, can set up the next leg higher within the channel structure.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY PLAN
Short-term sell only at the upper boundary as a scalp
Sell zone: 4565 – 4469
Context:
This zone sits near the upper channel boundary where profit-taking is common, especially when liquidity is thin. Any sell idea should be treated as a short-term scalp rather than a trend reversal.
WHY LIQUIDITY-BASED TRADING MATTERS HERE
Holiday sessions can produce irregular flows, sharp spikes, and stop runs
Volume Profile helps define higher-probability execution areas instead of emotional entries
Trading around value and liquidity improves consistency when price action becomes less reliable
FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP AND MARKET SENTIMENT
OANDA traders highlight multiple drivers behind the strength in precious metals, with longer-term projections pointing to further upside for gold and silver next year. The narrative remains supported by safe-haven demand, expectations of easier monetary conditions, and a softer USD tone.
Still, in the short term, the holiday environment can distort price action, making liquidity zones even more important for execution.
This Multi time frame Trick will save you from FAKEOUTSIn this video I am showcasing a daily, weekly and monthly time frame combination - also sharing a trick which can save you a lot of money from those regular sized fakeouts .
Charts used are 3 months old in this video and video is purely educational based .
XAUUSD H1 Main Trend for the Weekend
Gold failed to confirm a sustainable upward momentum after yesterday's price reaction, prioritizing a short-term adjustment scenario before reassessing the trend
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Strategy to sell based on reactions at large volume areas, suitable for the current short-term structure
Focus sell area: 4332 – 4342
Technical basis: these are areas concentrated with volume according to the Volume Profile, where price is likely to show distribution reactions after a weak recovery
Expected movement: price recovers to the large volume area for distribution, then continues the adjustment phase
Daily target:
Heading towards the 4275 area, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement area and underlying support
Position management:
Sell should only be held short-term. If the price surpasses and stabilizes above 4342, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell orders.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Monitor price reactions at deeper support areas to reassess trading opportunities
Strong support area: around 4275
Technical context: this is the convergence area between structural support and Fibonacci retracement, likely to show defensive buying force
Expected movement: if the price reacts well at this area, the market may enter a re-accumulation state
MAIN REASON
On H1, the previous upward phase failed to maintain a clear upward structure, indicating weakening buying force
Volume Profile helps identify the 4332 – 4342 areas as advantageous entry points for the sell reaction scenario
The 4275 area serves as a reasonable adjustment target in the context of a typically momentum-lacking weekend market
MACRO CONTEXT AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
While short-term fluctuations lean towards adjustment, major institutions still maintain a positive outlook for gold in the medium and long term. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices could reach $4,900/oz by the end of 2026, supported by strong buying demand from central banks and positive impacts from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle.
This suggests that short-term declines may be more of a technical adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.
XAUUSD (H1) – Friday Weekend
Lana prioritizes the adjustment phase towards the POC area, looking to Sell in the liquidity zone 💛
Quick Summary
Context: Friday, the market often tends to take profits and sweep liquidity before the week closes
Monitoring Frame: H1
Main Viewpoint: Prioritize a decrease during the day (adjustment phase)
Key Point to Note: 4308 has reacted multiple times, a sensitive point in the structure
Market Context
The weekend is usually a time when the cash flow is “lighter” and price behavior tends to lean towards profit-taking. Therefore, an adjustment phase to gain more liquidity is the scenario Lana prioritizes today.
From a medium-term perspective, some large institutions still maintain a positive view on gold. However, in intraday trading, Lana still prioritizes following the current price behavior and trading according to the liquidity zone.
Technical View H1
On H1, the price is fluctuating around the accumulation zone, and the POC/VAL area indicates this is a market zone that has been “back and forth” for quite a while. When the price returns to these areas, there is usually a clear reaction.
The 4308 area is noteworthy because the price has reacted multiple times, so this is a point that could determine whether the adjustment phase continues.
Today's Trading Scenario
Main Scenario – Sell at POC/VAL area (large liquidity)
Sell: 4335 – 4340
Lana prioritizes waiting for the price to rebound to this area to sell according to the adjustment phase. This is a large liquidity zone, suitable for finding a downward reaction during the day.
Alternative Scenario – Buy scalping at near support
Buy: 4284 – 4289
This Buy order is only for scalping when the price hits the support area and a bounce reaction appears. If the market continues to be weak, Lana will not hold the Buy for too long.
Session Notes
If the price continues to be rejected around resistance areas and cannot surpass the supply zone, the adjustment scenario will have an advantage.
For Friday, Lana prioritizes light trading, quick closing, avoiding holding positions too long over the weekend.
Lana's Notes 🌿
Each scenario is just a probability. Lana always sets a stop loss first, chooses the appropriate volume, and is ready to skip if the price does not reach the waiting area.
XAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI RiskXAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI Risk
Gold is slowing down as the market awaits news and liquidity is fragmented, so prioritize trading according to Volume Profile zones to choose advantageous entry points instead of chasing prices.
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Strategy to buy at POC and VAL zones according to Volume Profile, suitable for a medium-term perspective.
Buy zone: 4314 – 4317
SL: 4307
TP: 4328 – 4345 – 4363 – 4370
Technical context:
On H1, the price is accumulating and reacting around the value area. The 4314–4317 area is the POC and VAL zone, often a liquidity attraction point and likely to see buying pressure if the structure maintains support.
Expected movement:
Price holds the 4314–4317 zone, absorbs short-term selling pressure, then rebounds to the above TP levels. When approaching 4345, monitor reactions as this is an area prone to selling pressure.
Position management:
If the price quickly rises but fails to hold above 4328, consider reducing risk. If the price clearly breaks below 4307, prioritize stopping the buy scenario and wait for a deeper zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Sell scalping strategy at short-term resistance zone, higher risk as the larger trend still favors buying.
Sell scalping zone: 4343 – 4346
SL: 4353
TP: 4325 – 4310 – 4290
Technical context:
The 4343–4346 area is a sell scalping zone on the chart, suitable for short-term trading when the price rebounds to resistance and clear rejection signals appear.
Note:
Sell should only be a scalping order. Do not prioritize holding long sell positions if the market is still in an accumulation phase awaiting news.
MAIN REASON
Volume Profile shows that POC and VAL zones are advantageous entry points during a sideways market lacking a clear trend.
The 4314–4317 zone acts as a value support area for finding buy points, while 4343–4346 is suitable for sell scalping when the price rebounds to resistance.
When the market awaits news, the likelihood of liquidity sweeps increases, so trading by zones will be more effective than chasing candles.
MACRO CONTEXT AND CPI DATA
The upcoming US CPI release during the North American session will be the main variable guiding Fed policy expectations, directly impacting USD and gold. Ahead of data risk, dovish expectations from the Fed are causing USD to lack strong upward momentum, but volatility may spike suddenly at the time of the news release, creating spikes and sweeping SL on both ends.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Do not open orders when the price is between zones and has not reached the exact levels of 4314–4317 or 4343–4346.
Prioritize reducing volume before CPI or only maintain positions that are already profitable and manage tightly.
Focus on observing price reactions at POC VAL and sell scalping zones, as these are decisive points for short-term direction.
XAUUSD is ranging before CPI direction comes after the news.Gold is currently consolidating sideways near the upper zone around 434x as the market awaits inflation data and updates from the BOJ. Short-term volatility may occur, but the overall structure remains intact, with no clear breakout signal seen in the previous session.
Before the news, the preferred strategy is to trade within the range. Traders can look for reaction setups when price approaches 4346–4348, with a mandatory stop-loss, as this area has been tested multiple times.
After the news is released, the market is expected to choose a new direction. If price breaks and holds firmly above the 435x zone, the bullish trend will be confirmed. In that case, the focus shifts to buying the breakout, with targets toward the previous high and potentially a new ATH.
👉 Before the news: trade the range – react at key levels.
👉 After the news: wait for confirmation – follow the trend.
Chumtrades XAUUSD Sideway Trading PlanMarket View
Gold is currently moving within a clear sideway structure, with no confirmed signal for a new trend. Price action suggests accumulation and rotation inside defined ranges.
Sideway Structure
Small H4 Box (inner range):
Upper boundary: 4335
Lower boundary: 4290
This is the main short-term trading box where price is reacting most frequently.
Large Sideway Box (outer range):
Upper boundary: 435X
Pay attention to 434X (around 4340–4342)
Lower boundary: 4270
A deeper extension may reach 4256
Intraday Expectation
Sideway behavior remains the primary scenario.
Trading approach:
Sell near the top of the range
Buy near the bottom of the range
No major news today, no clear breakout catalyst.
Risk Note
Manage risk carefully and stay alert for false breakouts.
If price closes decisively outside the larger box, reassess the structure.
XAUUSD H1 Analysis Before Key NewsXAUUSD H1 Analysis Before Key News
During the Asian-European session, gold is likely to move sideways awaiting news as the market enters a sensitive phase with data and political factors, amidst a clearly formed short-term downtrend structure.
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Trading strategy according to the current structure, prioritizing short-term sell and buy at lower liquidity zones.
Main sell zone: around 4323, coinciding with the POC of the Volume Profile.
Technical context: price is moving below the equilibrium zone, clear H1 downtrend structure; the POC area often acts as a "pullback to sell" price zone.
Expected movement: early European session may see a pullback of about 40–50 points, then price returns to sideways movement and faces downward pressure again.
Position management:
Sell should only be held short-term and tightly managed when price reacts at 4323. If price surpasses POC and holds above this zone, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell positions.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Strategy to buy at lower liquidity zones, suitable for medium-term trading.
Buy zone 1: around 4242, important VAH zone.
Buy zone 2: around 4215, Buy Zone according to Volume Profile.
Technical context: these are two price zones with high liquidity density, often attracting buying force when the market needs to rebalance after a decline.
Expected movement: price sweeps liquidity below, creating a new accumulation base and seeking recovery opportunities.
MAIN REASON
On H1, a downtrend structure has formed after a distribution phase, indicating short-term advantage leans towards the sell side.
Volume Profile clearly identifies POC 4323 as a reasonable pullback zone to sell, while 4242 and 4215 are price zones with high probability of buying reaction.
Sideways scenario before news fits the market context awaiting important macroeconomic and political information.
MACRO CONTEXT AND POLITICAL NEWS
Political factors are strongly impacting the currency market, especially the USD. The US is said to have proposed a security guarantee mechanism for Ukraine similar to NATO's Article 5 to promote negotiations to end the conflict with Russia, although territorial issues have not yet reached consensus.
These signals are putting weakening pressure on the USD, thereby continuing to support gold in the medium term. However, in the short term, strong volatility around news release time is something to be particularly noted.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Do not prioritize trading when price is between the equilibrium zone and has not reached important Volume Profile levels.
Sell orders should only be considered short-term trades before news, avoiding holding through data release or important political speeches.
Medium-term buy strategy will have more advantage if price reacts clearly at 4242 or deeper at 4215.
Closely monitor USD fluctuations as current political news is the main driving factor.
XAU/USD: Sell on Bearish OB, Buy Deep at Bullish OB1. Context & Price Structure (M30)
• The price is in a downward correction after a strong previous increase.
• On the retracement zone, EQH + ChoCH decrease appears → signal of weakening buying flow, prioritize "retracement to sell" in the short term.
• The price is still pressed under the descending trendline, so the short-term bias remains downward until a clear break occurs.
• Support Zone 4,275 is the decisive point: if held, it will rebound technically, if broken, it opens the path to the lower demand zone.
2. Key Levels (according to the chart drawn)
• OB Bearish (Sell Zone): 4,308 – 4,312 (≈ 4,311.888) → supply zone + trendline confluence, prioritize watching for SELL when retracing.
• Support Zone: 4,272 – 4,276 (≈ 4,275.451) → central support zone, can create a rebound/retracement.
• Mid Support / Target: 4,247.624 → next target if 4,275 is broken.
• OB Bullish (Buy Zone): 4,223.400 – 4,205.983 → strong demand zone, expected to sweep and reverse.
3. Trading Plan (with clear conditions)
Scenario 1 – SELL on retracement at Bearish OB (main scenario)
• If the price retraces to 4,308 – 4,312 and a rejection reaction appears:
strong pin bar
downward engulfing
or ChoCH decreases again on M15/M30
• Then prioritize SELL according to the correction trend.
• TP1: 4,275
• TP2: 4,247
• TP3: 4,223 (approaching OB Bullish)
• Invalidation: M30 closes above 4,318 and holds above → stop SELL idea.
Scenario 2 – BUY deep at Bullish OB (important scenario to catch a large retracement)
• If the price breaks 4,275 with a clear M30 candle and slides down to 4,223 – 4,206.
• Wait for Liquidity Sweep + reversal signal:
pin bar at OB
upward engulfing
or ChoCH increases (M15/M30)
• When confirmed, prioritize BUY.
• TP1: 4,247
• TP2: 4,275
• TP3: 4,308
• Invalidation: M30 closes below 4,198 → stay out and observe.
4. Risk Management Notes
• Do not chase SELL when the price is close to 4,275 (support zone).
• Do not BUY early before the price hits Bullish OB and confirmation is received.
• If the price reclaims strongly above the trendline + 4,312, the bias will shift to "BUY pullback" instead of "Sell retracement."
XAUUSD H1 Analysis Based on Volume ProfileXAUUSD H1 Analysis Based on Volume Profile
Gold is moving sideways and consolidating around the 4,300 USD/oz area. The short-term direction remains unconfirmed and requires clear reactions at key liquidity zones.
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN SCENARIO
Medium-term trend-following buy strategy at price areas with Volume Profile advantage
Primary buy zone: around 4284 based on VAL
Technical context: this is the lower value area where buying interest is likely to appear as the market continues to consolidate
Price expectation: price holds above VAL, absorbs short-term selling pressure, and gradually rotates back toward the upper balance area
Position management:
If price reacts positively and H1 candles hold above the 4284 level, a medium-term bullish bias in line with the main trend can be maintained.
If price breaks clearly below VAL, caution is required and deeper reaction zones should be monitored.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SCENARIO
Deeper buy opportunity in the event of additional liquidity sweep
Alternative buy zone: around 4242, based on the VAH of the previous value area
Technical context: this area represents the upper value zone of the prior consolidation and may act as strong support during a deeper pullback
Price expectation: downside liquidity sweep followed by a recovery, restoring market balance
SELL SCENARIO – HIGH RISK
Sell positions should only be considered as short-term trades, not a primary strategy
Short-term sell zone: around 4378, based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension
Note: sells should only be considered if clear price rejection signals appear. Avoid holding short positions for extended periods while the broader trend remains bullish.
KEY REASONS
On the H1 timeframe, price is consolidating, indicating the market needs additional liquidity before confirming the next directional move
Volume Profile clearly highlights high-probability trading zones, particularly VAL at 4284 and VAH at 4242
The 4378 level represents an extended resistance zone suitable for profit-taking or short-term countertrend sells
MACRO CONTEXT AND MARKET SENTIMENT
Gold continues to hold strong near the 4,300 USD/oz level, supported by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and rising safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, silver has faced short-term profit-taking pressure after reaching record highs, reflecting a more cautious market tone.
This week’s focus is on the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Weak data may reinforce gold’s bullish trend, while strong data could trigger a short-term correction amid ongoing policy uncertainty within the Fed.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Avoid trading while price remains in the middle of the consolidation range and away from key Volume Profile levels.
The medium-term buy strategy loses its edge if price breaks clearly below 4242 and fails to reclaim the level.
Closely monitor volatility around the Nonfarm release, as sharp spikes and liquidity sweeps are highly likely.
Waiting for FVG / Liquidity Pullback, Trend-Following BUY Bias1. Market Context & Structure (H1)
• Gold has completed a liquidity sweep followed by a bullish BOS, confirming that the short-term uptrend remains intact.
• After the strong impulse, price is now entering a rebalancing / technical pullback phase rather than a reversal.
• The overall structure remains Higher High – Higher Low, favoring BUY strategies aligned with the dominant trend.
2. Key Technical Zones on the Chart
• Resistance / Supply Zone 1: 4,359 – 4,360
→ A previously strong reaction zone, where short-term corrections may occur.
• Resistance / Supply Zone 2: 4,394
→ Fibonacci 0.786 extension area, prone to profit-taking or upper liquidity sweeps.
• iFVG – Pullback Zone: 4,297 – 4,300
→ Inefficiency left during the bullish impulse, prioritized for the first BUY reaction.
• Liquidity Buy Zone: 4,267
→ Resting liquidity below, where a deeper sweep may occur before trend continuation.
3. Trading Scenarios – Captain Vincent Style
🔹 Primary Scenario – BUY at iFVG / Liquidity Buy (Preferred)
• Expect price to pull back from the 4,35x area toward 4,297 – 4,300 (iFVG) or deeper into 4,267 (Liquidity Buy).
• At the BUY zone, wait for confirmation signals:
– Strong rejection wicks
– Bullish engulfing
– Bullish ChoCH on M15–H1
• Preferred BUY Zones:
– BUY 1: 4,297 – 4,300
– BUY 2 (deeper): 4,267
• Targets:
– TP1: 4,359
– TP2: 4,394
– TP3 extension: continuation if 4,394 is broken.
• Invalidation:
– H1 close below 4,255 → short-term bullish structure weakens.
🔹 Secondary Scenario – Short-Term SELL Reaction at Supply
• If price rallies directly into 4,359 – 4,394 without a clear pullback, a short-term SELL reaction may appear.
• SELLs are scalp / counter-trend only, not the primary scenario.
• SELL target: pullback toward iFVG 4,297.
4. Risk & Management Notes
• Avoid FOMO BUY at high resistance zones.
• Prioritize BUY entries at discounted areas (FVG – Liquidity).
• Main bias remains BUY on pullbacks; SELLs are only technical reactions.
• Adjust position sizing carefully as the market is in an expansion phase.
XAUUSD H4 Medium Term Rising Channel and Key Liquidity ZonesXAUUSD H4 – Medium-Term Rising Channel and Key Liquidity Zones
Gold reacted sharply after touching the trendline, with the primary focus next week on buying pullbacks in line with the dominant trend
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN STRATEGY
Trend-following buy strategy on a corrective move into key support and liquidity areas
Primary buy zone: 4175 – 4203
Technical context: this area represents a previously validated support zone and a clear pool of downside liquidity
Price expectation: a corrective dip into support, absorption of selling pressure, followed by a potential rebound back toward the upper balance area
Position management:
If price shows a strong reaction and H4 candles hold above the support zone, maintaining a swing-long bias remains favoured.
If price breaks decisively below support, risk should be reduced and deeper levels monitored.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY STRATEGY
Deeper pullback buy opportunity near the lower trendline of the rising channel
Alternative buy zone: near the lower boundary of the rising channel, aligned with long-term liquidity
Technical context: this area acts as the last line of defence for the medium-term bullish structure and is suitable for longer-term positioning
Price expectation: a deeper liquidity sweep followed by recovery, reaffirming the rising channel
KEY TECHNICAL POINTS
On the H4 timeframe, price continues to trade within a rising channel. The sharp 100-point drop after touching the upper trendline highlights profit-taking pressure at higher levels
The 4175 area and the lower channel trendline remain the most important liquidity zones for trend-aligned buying
Upper resistance and the FVG-liquidity zone are better suited for trade management rather than aggressive new longs
MACRO AND MARKET CONTEXT
Markets are reacting to growing expectations of a potential shift in future Federal Reserve leadership and policy direction.
The probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair has increased, alongside comments indicating a preference for significantly lower interest rates.
Such expectations may remain supportive for gold in the medium term, although short-term technical corrections should still be respected after strong upside moves.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Avoid chasing price near the upper boundary of the rising channel.
Any sell positions should be treated as short-term countertrend trades and only considered with clear rejection signals.
The bullish scenario weakens if price breaks and fails to reclaim the rising channel structure.
Remain alert to volatility around policy-related headlines and key economic data, as liquidity sweeps are likely.
XAUUSD H1 Volume Profile and Key Price AreasXAUUSD H1 – Volume Profile and Key Price Areas
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with the primary strategy focused on buying pullbacks
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN STRATEGY
Buy-the-dip approach aligned with the dominant trend using Volume Profile levels
Expected buy zone: around 4253 based on VAH
Short-term range to monitor: 4263 – 4285
Price expectation: rebound from VAH toward the upper range before further expansion
Position management:
If price holds above the 4263 area and shows clear bullish reaction, maintaining long exposure remains favorable.
If price is strongly rejected near 4285, risk should be reduced as this zone represents an important short-term resistance.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY SETUP
Short-term countertrend opportunity at an extended resistance level
Sell zone for the alternative scenario: around 4310 at the Fibonacci extension
This setup is only considered if clear rejection signals appear at the level
KEY REASONS
The bullish structure on the H1 timeframe remains intact
Volume Profile highlights the VAH near 4253 as a high-probability reaction zone
The 4310 area represents an extended resistance suitable for profit-taking or short-term pullback reactions
MACRO CONTEXT
The Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle and maintains a dovish stance, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting gold prices.
Geopolitical tensions and concerns about US economic slowdown further reinforce safe-haven demand.
Markets are now focused on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report, where weaker data could drive further upside, while stronger data may trigger a short-term correction.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Avoid chasing price while gold trades within the 4263 – 4285 range.
The bullish scenario becomes invalid if price breaks clearly below the support area beneath the VAH.
Expect increased volatility around major economic data releases and manage exposure accordingly.
XAU/USD : Buy at OB 4,19x – 4,18x, Targets 4,24x → 4,26x 1. Market Structure (H1)
Gold is retracing back into bullish structure after breaking a series of bullish ChoCH and BoS, forming a new high around 4,24x. The current decline is only a technical pullback because:
• Price is returning to the Buy Order Block at 4,188 – 4,196.
• This zone aligns with trendline support and the demand base that fueled the previous impulse.
• The macro structure remains bullish as long as H1 does not close below 4,188.
→ This is a clear pullback–continuation setup: wait for price to retrace into discount, then target higher zones.
2. Key Levels
🔹 Demand Zone (Buy Zone): 4,188 – 4,196
• Bullish OB
• Trendline support
• Priority BUY area
🔹 Resistance 1: 4,217 – 4,218
• Multiple rejections
• Breakout → next bullish leg
🔹 Resistance 2: 4,238 – 4,239
• 0.5–0.618 Fibo confluence
• Possible mild sell reaction
🔹 Liquidity & Targets:
• 4,259 → Fibo 1.272
• 4,278 → Fibo 1.618 + resting liquidity
3. Trading Plan
🔸 Main Scenario – BUY at OB 4,19x – 4,18x
Conditions:
• Price taps 4,188 – 4,196
• Reversal signals: pin bar, engulfing, or bullish ChoCH
Targets:
TP1: 4,217
TP2: 4,238
TP3: 4,259
TP4: 4,278
Invalidation:
• H1 close below 4,185 → stay out.
🔸 Alternate Scenario – Price goes up without retesting OB
If price holds above 4,210 and breaks 4,217:
• Wait for retest of 4,217
• BUY continuation toward 4,238 → 4,259 → 4,278
Market Outlook
Gold is accumulating and building a base for a stronger breakout. The OB Buy zone 4,19x – 4,18x remains the highest-probability reversal area.
XAU/USD: Buy at OB 4.18x–4.17x; Sell on reaction.✍️ Captain Vincent – SMC Flow Analysis
📊 Market Structure (H1)
Gold continues to accumulate within the range of 4,200–4,220 after failing to break the recent peak. The structure shows:
• Multiple ChoCH – BoS declines → selling pressure still leads in the short term.
• However, the OB Buy 4,184–4,170 zone remains a crucial structural bottom, where buyers react strongly once swept.
• Above, the market leaves a Liquidity Sell area at 4,261, a natural target if gold gathers enough liquidity below.
→ The current phase is liquidity gathering before making a big move.
💎 Key Levels – Price Zones to Watch
🔸 Resistance / Sell Zone
• 4,218 → intraday resistance, price reacts multiple times.
• 4,243–4,244 → confluence of sideways peak + old BoS.
• Liquidity Sell: 4,261 → extended target if price breaks strongly upwards.
🔸 Support / Buy Zone
• 4,200–4,201 → short-term price balance zone.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 → strong demand, where the previous trend initiated.
• If breaking 4,170 → price may sweep deeper but remains in the ideal discount zone for BUY hunting.
🎯 Trading Plan – Clear and Easy to Follow
1️⃣ Main Scenario – Prioritize BUY at OB 4,184–4,170
Expect the market to create a sweep below 4,200, touching OB Buy to gather liquidity before bouncing up.
BUY Conditions:
• Price touches 4,184–4,170
• Reversal signals appear on M15–H1: pin bar, engulfing, rising ChoCH
• Decline slows down or buying force becomes clear
Targets:
• TP1: 4,190
• TP2: 4,200
• TP3: 4,215
• TP4 extended: 4,261 (Liquidity Sell)
Invalidation: H1 closes below 4,165 → stay out and reassess the structure.
2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Short SELL when price retests 4.24x
If the price does not drop immediately but pulls up:
SELL Conditions:
• Retest 4,243–4,244
• Strong reaction appears: rejection wick, declining ChoCH
• Must not close H1 above 4,250
Targets:
• TP1: 4,235
• TP2: 4,225
• TP3: OB Buy 4,184–4,170
Invalidation: H1 closes above 4,250 → stop SELL, shift bias to observe breakout.
3️⃣ Extended Scenario – Sweep peak 4,261
Only activate when:
• Price bounces strongly from OB Buy
• Clear breakout of 4,243 zone
• Structure forms HL → HH
At that point, gold will tend to run straight up to sweep liquidity at 4,261 before the market chooses a new direction.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Do not BUY when price is still within the resistance zone 4,218–4,243.
• SELL is only a short-term strategy, do not go against the major trend if a breakout occurs.
• OB Buy 4,184–4,170 is the zone with the highest probability of triggering an upward wave.
XAUUSD – Brian | After the rate cutXAUUSD – Brian | After the rate cut, Volume Profile still favours further downside
1. Market snapshot
After the rate cut, gold saw a bounce but failed to sustain the upside and is still hovering below last week’s highs.
In the Asian session, price only ticked up slightly before being sold off again – a sign that buying pressure is not particularly strong at these levels.
Risk-on sentiment has returned and the USD is seeing a modest recovery, which is weighing on XAU/USD.
That said, expectations for the Fed to maintain a dovish tone could still cap USD strength in the medium term.
Overall, in the short term Brian still leans towards a downside move, preferring to sell into liquidity above rather than chase buys.
2. Volume Profile view – Key levels to watch
On the H1 chart, Volume Profile highlights three main areas:
VAL – Buy scalping zone: around 4,207
→ Current lower value area, where a short technical bounce may appear.
Liquidity / Sell zone: around 4,222
→ Liquidity pocket above, lining up with VAH and a volume cluster – an attractive area to look for sells if price is pushed back up for a retest.
Deeper buy zone: around 4,166
→ Broader demand area below; if price flushes lower after sweeping liquidity, this is where dip-buying interest may show up.
3. Trade scenarios (for reference)
Scenario 1 – Sell at the 4,222 liquidity zone (primary idea)
Idea: Wait for price to retrace into the 4,222 liquidity zone and then look for rejection signals on H1/M15.
Sell zone: 4,220–4,223
Suggested SL: Above 4,230
Targets:
TP1: 4,207 (VAL)
TP2: 4,190–4,185
TP3: 4,170–4,166 (deeper buy zone)
This setup follows the current bearish bias, using the logic of “sell the rally into high-volume + liquidity zones”.
Scenario 2 – Light buys at VAL 4,207 & buy zone 4,166
Scalp buy at VAL:
Entry zone: 4,204–4,207
Target: bounce back towards 4,217–4,220 and then exit, not a long hold.
Buy at the deeper 4,166 zone (cleaner level):
Entry zone: 4,164–4,168
SL: Below 4,158
TP: 4,190 → 4,210 if a clear bullish candle reaction forms and the Fed does not turn overly hawkish.
Both buy scenarios are purely short-term corrective plays, so position size should be kept modest as the main bias remains to the downside.
Be patient and only start thinking about sells once price tags the 4,222 area – avoid forcing entries when price is stuck in the middle of the range.
In summary: Selling around 4,222 is the primary plan, while buys at 4,207 and 4,166 are secondary strategies that only come into play if there is a clear reaction from Volume Profile and price action.






















