XAUUSD – Price Channel Rising Towards 4000 USD Next Week
Hello Traders,
Every day I share scenarios for you to refer to and build your own strategy. And here is the perspective for next week – as gold is in a sustainable uptrend, approaching the psychological mark of 4000 USD.
Technical Perspective
On the H4 frame, gold continues to move within a clear upward price channel.
Every time the price touches the support trendline, a strong rebound reaction appears, indicating that buying pressure still dominates.
This price channel has remained stable for many weeks, providing a basis for us to prioritise buying in line with the trend.
The target of 4000 USD is not far away, especially when the fundamental context continues to support the upward trend.
Fundamental Context
The market is expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, creating momentum for gold.
Current US financial-economic news is limited, as the US Government remains shut down.
Geopolitical factors have somewhat cooled down, but gold still holds its position as an important safe-haven asset.
Trading Scenario
1. Buy (main priority):
Entry: 3860 – 3865 (at the rising trendline).
TP: 3960 – 4000.
SL: manage below the trendline.
2. Sell (backup if the channel breaks):
Condition: 3853 is breached.
At that point, a new trend will form and the Sell scenario will be activated.
Conclusion
Main trend: Buy in line with the rising channel, aiming for 4000 USD next week.
Sell should only be considered if there is confirmation of a break below 3853.
The market is in a critical phase, so be patient and wait for a good entry point to trade safely and effectively.
Techincalanalysis
XAUUSD – New York Session Outlook (End of Week Setup)
Gold is currently testing the highs for the third time, but a fresh ATH this week seems increasingly unlikely. The ideal sell zone has already been tapped, leaving limited upside momentum in the short term.
Following today’s economic data, trading volume has remained muted, suggesting the market is waiting for clearer waves before committing further positions. Yesterday’s sharp drop already flushed out many short-term traders, which may keep activity lighter into the weekly close.
⚖️ Trading Plan – New York Session
For today’s US session, preference is given to short positions ahead of the weekly candle close:
Sell Entry: Around current levels (3,88x) or ideally at 3,890
Stop Loss: Strictly above the ATH
Take Profit: Targeting a deeper correction towards the 3,83x area into weekly close
📊 Market View
Momentum has clearly slowed, with repeated rejections around the highs.
Short-term volume remains thin, so expect choppy price action before any decisive move.
Patience will be key – look for small price reactions to refine entries.
📌 Conclusion: End-of-week price action looks tilted towards a corrective pullback rather than a breakout. For the New York session, selling rallies remains the higher-probability play.
Good luck with your trades, and trade safe! 🚀
TDPOWERSYS (TD Power System)The stock is trading above all key EMAs, showing strong momentum.
After facing resistance near ₹475, it broke out in May, then briefly retested the ₹475–₹460 zone, which has now turned into solid support.
Now there is probability of another upside move.
✅ If you like my analysis, please follow me as a token of appreciation :)
in.tradingview.com/u/SatpalS/
📌 For learning and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
XAUUSD H4 – WAITING FOR NFP, TRADING WITHIN PRICE CHANNEL
Hello trader 👋
Gold continues to hold within the H4 rising price channel, but buying momentum has clearly weakened after yesterday's sharp drop. The price reaction at the lower trendline indicates that selling pressure is not yet strong enough to break the structure, yet the market's hesitation reflects a wait-and-see attitude for the NFP data and a series of important US news tonight.
In the European session, the price might move slowly and frustratingly – typical for a Friday – before potentially exploding in the US session. Therefore, the sensible strategy now is short-term trading within the channel, adapting to each small wave on the M5–M15 timeframe.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 3,874 – 3,876 (Sell entry)
Near Support: 3,794 – 3,795 (Buy scalping zone)
Deep Support: 3,760 (Important Buy zone)
⚖️ Trading Scenarios
🔴 Short-term Sell Scenario:
Entry: 3,874 – 3,876
SL: 3,885
TP: Expecting break of lower trendline → 3,79x – 3,76x
🟢 Buy Scalping Scenario:
Entry: 3,794
SL: 3,785
TP: 3,820 → 3,835 → 3,855 → 3,876 → 3,890
🟢 Deep Buy Zone Scenario:
Entry: 3,760
SL: 3,750
TP: 3,782 → 3,795 → 3,810 → 3,825
📊 General Outlook
Main Trend: Gold remains in an upward channel, but buying strength is waning and the risk of a breakdown is present.
European Session: Slow fluctuations, prone to “whipsaw” → prioritise short-term scalping.
US Session: NFP news might create strong waves, breaking the price channel → traders need to closely monitor reactions around 3,794 and 3,760 to decide on the next buy or sell move.
📌 Conclusion: Before NFP, gold remains in an upward channel but technical factors suggest a possible correction. Sensible strategy: Short sell at 3,874–3,876, or buy around support 3,794 – 3,760 depending on price action. Manage capital tightly, as the US session will determine the next major direction.
Follow my journey as I share trading experiences with you.
XAUUSD – Prioritise Sell After Breaking Trendline
Hello Traders,
Gold has experienced a strong upward movement for several consecutive days, but currently, the market is showing significant reversal signals. The upward trendline on H4 has been broken, confirming the weakening buying momentum. In the medium term, the preferred scenario will be selling rather than continuing to chase buys.
Basic Context
The US Treasury has just repurchased an additional 2 billion USD in bonds, raising the total repurchase this week to 4.9 billion USD. This move indicates an effort to stabilise the bond market but also reflects significant pressure on the USD and the US financial situation.
In the short term, the injection of additional bond liquidity makes gold's movement more unpredictable, and the trendline break at this time is an important warning signal.
Technical Perspective
Breaking the upward trendline → confirms a structural change.
MACD signals weakening, with buyers losing clear strength.
The 3865 – 3868 zone is a beautiful resistance retest point to Sell.
If the price falls deeply, the support zones around 3830 – 3810 – 3790 will be the next targets.
Today's Trading Scenario
Sell (main priority):
Entry: 3865 – 3868
SL: 3875
TP: 3855 – 3832 – 3810 – 3790
Buy Scalping (counter-trend – high risk):
Entry: 3803 – 3805
SL: 3795
TP: 3822 – 3835 – 3850
Conclusion
Gold has broken the trendline, prioritising Sell in the short and medium term.
News from the US bond market further emphasises the risk of instability, making counter-trend Buy moves suitable only for short-term Scalping.
Follow me for the earliest updates on scenarios as price paths change.
LiamTrading – INTRADAY TRADING SCENARIO
When we look at the global financial landscape, an interesting picture emerges:
Equities – All Time High (ATH)
Housing Prices – ATH
Bitcoin – ATH
Gold – ATH
Money Supply – ATH
National Debt – ATH
CPI Inflation – averaging 4% per year since 2020, double the Fed’s “target”
Federal Reserve – continuing rate cuts this month
Clearly, easy money combined with inflationary pressure is a powerful driver pushing gold to new historical levels. This makes buying with the trend more reasonable than ever.
📊 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart
Gold is moving within a well-defined upward channel.
Volume Profile highlights the POC around 3840–3850, a key zone to watch for scalping buys.
The VAL coincides with the rising trendline near 3820–3822, offering strong confluence for medium-term buys.
If price breaks above 3895 to confirm a new ATH, trend-following buys remain the priority.
Key resistance: 3913–3915, suitable for short-term scalping sells.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
Buy scalping: 3845 | SL 3839 | TP 3856 – 3870
Buy zone (main): 3820 – 3822 | SL 3816 | TP 3832 – 3845 – 3860 – 3875 – 3890
Sell scalping: 3915 – 3913 | SL 3920 | TP 3900 – 3885 – 3872 – 3860
Buy breakout: If price breaks ATH 3895 and confirms, continue buying with the trend → Open targets towards 3915+
📌 Conclusion
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, both fundamentally and technically. Short-term pullbacks are simply opportunities to add to buy positions. However, traders should watch the immediate resistance zones to optimise entries.
👉 This is my personal outlook on XAUUSD, not financial advice.
Follow me to stay updated with the latest daily gold scenarios 🔥
USOIL is in a critical zoneHello,
USOIL is currently at a major support level that has held for the past 2 months. There are two possible scenarios: either the support holds and USOIL bounces back toward the resistance at $66, or the support breaks and the price moves down to the next level at $60,
Ibrouri Abdessamad
XAUUSD – WOLFE WAVE CONTINUES, PRIORITISE BUYING
Hello trader 👋
On 02/10, we begin with the continuation scenario of the Wolfe Wave pattern. In yesterday's session, gold prices followed the upward rhythm of the pattern, but the decline at the upper line was not truly effective. Today, the market is forming a new price channel with a wider range, opening opportunities for both buy and sell orders during the session.
Regarding fundamentals, geopolitical tensions between Russia and France are escalating, while safe-haven flows continue to pour into gold. Long-term analyses suggest the $4,000 mark is entirely feasible, although there are still technical fluctuations in the near term.
⚖️ Today's trading scenarios
🟢 Buy Scenario (prioritise following the main trend):
Entry: 3,863 – 3,865
SL: 3,857
TP: 3,880 → 3,895 → 3,910 → 3,920
👉 You can enter at the current zone, or wait for a breakout confirmation above 3,871 to increase winning probability.
🔴 Sell Scalping Scenario (short-term):
Entry: 3,885
SL: 3,891
TP: Short around 3,870 (depending on price reaction)
👉 Suitable for quick scalping traders at the upper edge of the channel.
🔴 Wolfe Wave Sell Scenario (wide range):
Entry: 3,925 – 3,927
SL: 3,935
TP: Long-term expectation according to the Wolfe pattern, can be managed by closing 50% at 3R profit level, letting the rest ride the trend.
📊 General Outlook
The main trend remains bullish, buying continues to be the priority strategy.
Sell orders should only be considered as short-term opportunities at the upper range, or when the price tests strong resistance.
Volatility may increase during the day due to political news, so risk management needs to be tight.
📌 Conclusion: Gold is following the Wolfe Wave pattern with an expanding price channel. Buying at support – short selling at resistance is the suitable strategy for the day. Long-term investors can continue to expect the $3,950 – $4,000 mark in the upcoming cycle.
(XAU/USD) – Gold likely to touch $4,000/oz: Ideal buying levels?1. Market Structure & Trend Outlook
On the H1 chart, gold is sustaining its bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows.
After the BoS (Break of Structure), price retraced near 3,862 Buy Zone and bounced upward.
At present, price trades above EMA34 and EMA89, keeping bullish bias intact.
2. Important Levels
Buy Zone: 3,862 – 3,865. Acts as short-term support. Holding above strengthens the bullish case.
OB1: 3,806 – 3,810. Next support in case Buy Zone breaks.
OB2: 3,763 – 3,770. Deeper support, triggered only if market corrects heavily.
Sell Scalping Zone (Fibo): 3,912. A short-term resistance, profit booking expected.
Sell Zone / ATH: 3,933 – 3,935. Breakout here may lead to fresh record highs.
3. Trade Setups
Bullish Setup: Buy on retest of 3,862 – 3,865.
SL: Below 3,850.
TP1: 3,912.
TP2: 3,933 – 3,935.
Bearish Setup (Defensive): If below 3,860, expect test of 3,806 – 3,810.
If this fails, price may decline towards 3,763 – 3,770.
4. Conclusion
Trend remains positive on H1. Best strategy: Buy on dips near support, manage SLs carefully, and book partial profits near resistances. Sustaining above 3,933 may open doors for new highs.
XAUUSD – Maintaining the Core Uptrend (BUY Bias)
Hello traders,
On the H4 timeframe, gold continues to show a steady upward trend. After testing the upper trendline, price bounced back and is now consolidating around the 386x region. This suggests the market may be in an accumulation phase, awaiting major news.
Fundamental Context
Tomorrow, the market will look towards the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, an event that often brings strong volatility to gold prices.
In addition, concerns around the potential US Government shutdown are adding to the macro uncertainty, further supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
At present, there is little evidence to suggest gold will decline, particularly when other markets are also breaking higher.
Technical Analysis
Price continues to trade within the ascending channel on H4, with buyers holding the advantage.
MACD remains above the zero line, showing no clear signs of weakness.
Price is likely to consolidate further in the 3860 – 3870 range before a sharp move triggered by news.
Trading Plan
Buy Setup (preferred – trend following)
Entry: 3829 – 3832
SL: 3825
TP: 3845 – 3862 – 3877 – 3890
Sell Scalping (counter-trend, higher risk)
Entry: 3927 – 3930
SL: 3934
TP: 3915 – 3900 – 3882 – 3865
Note: Sell setups should be treated only as short-term scalps, as the primary bias remains on the buy side.
Conclusion
Gold is holding firmly within the uptrend structure, with no significant weakness yet. Given the backdrop of political uncertainty and the upcoming NFP release, the priority remains buying at suitable support zones. Any sell trades should be viewed as quick reactions rather than core positions.
👉 Follow me to get the latest updates as soon as price structure changes.
GOLD H1 – THE WOLF WAVE SCENARIO IS FORMINGHello trader 👋
Gold has surged back strongly after a nearly 70-point drop yesterday. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the newly established ATH, with the potential to extend short-term targets towards 3,960 – 4,000 if the upward trend continues to hold.
On the H1 chart, the price structure indicates the possibility of forming a Wolfe Wave pattern. This will be the main reference frame for trading throughout the day, capitalising on the oscillation range within the pattern.
⚖️ Short-term Trading Strategy
🟢 Buy Scenario (priority in line with the main trend):
Entry: 3,852 – 3,854
SL: 3,847
TP: 3,865 → 3,878 → 3,890
👉 Trend-following trade, suitable for holding positions and maximising profits.
🔴 Sell Scenario (scalping at the upper boundary):
Entry: 3,877 – 3,879
SL: 3,884
TP: 3,865 → 3,850 → 3,838
👉 Short-term sell order, only for wave-trading within the pattern boundary.
📊 General Outlook
Gold continues to be supported by the major upward trend, but the H1 range suggests there might be some tug-of-war within the Wolfe Wave.
Buying positions remain a priority for the day, as they align with the trend and allow for more effective order management.
Traders need to closely monitor price action at the upper and lower boundaries to make flexible decisions.
💡 News Factors to Note
In the next hour, the market will focus on political news from the US, especially the potential US Government shutdown. This could be a catalyst causing more significant gold volatility during the session.
📌 Conclusion: Day trading prioritises Buying at support zones – Selling scalps at the upper boundary within the H1 Wolfe Wave pattern. Tight capital management and clear SL to mitigate risks. I will continue to update new scenarios for you – stay tuned to not miss out 🚀.
XAUUSD – US Government Shutdown Pressure on Gold
Hello Traders,
For the first time since 2018, the US Government is facing the risk of a shutdown. This can only be avoided if Congress passes new funding legislation, but the timing remains uncertain. This political backdrop is exerting strong pressure on the financial markets, and gold – the traditional safe haven asset – has become the focal point for investors.
Technical Outlook
Gold continues to set new ATHs right in the Asian session today, indicating the uptrend remains intact.
The upward price channel on H4 maintains a beautiful structure, with the main trend continuing to favour buying.
Yesterday's dip was merely a "liquidity sweep," after which the price quickly returned to its upward momentum.
Short positions can be considered when the price hits strong resistance, combining Fibonacci + Trendline, to optimise winning probabilities.
Trading Scenario
Sell (short-term at resistance):
Entry: 3884 – 3886
SL: 3890
TP: 3872 – 3860 – 3845 – 3830
Buy (aligning with the main trend):
Entry: 3820 – 3823
SL: 3816
TP: 3835 – 3850 – 3862 – 3880
Conclusion
Gold remains strongly supported by the political instability in the US.
The medium-term strategy continues to prioritise Buying at support zones, while Selling should only be considered when there is a clear reaction at resistance zones.
Traders need to closely monitor political news, as any developments related to the US government could alter the short-term structure of gold.
Follow me for the quickest updates on new scenarios as the price path changes.
LiamTrading – Follow the Buy trend, target ATH 3915
The gold market continues to demonstrate the strength of an upward trend. After yesterday's shakeout, we witnessed a very clear Long Squeeze: all buying forces were forced to exit, but immediately after, the price quickly rebounded. This is the hallmark of a strong trend – the more it shakes out, the more momentum it creates for a new peak.
Today's perspective:
Continue to follow Buy, do not SELL against the trend.
The Buy position from 3797 is still being held, if the price returns to retest, we will continue to add orders.
Prioritise observing the POC of the Volume Profile to place Buy orders; if the price adjusts deeper, the VAL area coinciding with the rising trendline will be an extremely safe buying point.
Trading scenario
Buy 3847–3844, SL 3840, TP 3868 – 3880 – 3900 – 3915
Buy 3821–3819, SL 3814, TP 3835 – 3850 – 3868 – open
In summary: The upward trend remains extremely strong, the short-term target is ATH 3915. Stick to the trend, prioritise Buy to maximise profits.
This is my personal view on XAUUSD. Please follow the scenario and stay tuned for my updates.
Gold Market Analysis & Trading Plan
📌 Macro Background
Gold prices continue to receive support from the decline in US interest rates and the weakening of the USD.
The DXY index decreased by 0.27% to 97.91, reducing the strength of the greenback.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.141%.
Real yield decreased to 1.761%, providing support for gold as the opportunity cost of holding gold is lower.
These factors reinforce the upward trend, although in the short term, gold may still experience adjustments to attract more capital flow.
📈 Technical Structure
The H4 frame shows that gold is maintaining a strong upward momentum, however, the RSI has moved deeply into the overbought zone.
⚖️ Trading Scenarios
🔴 Scenario 1 – Sell Scalping
Entry: 3,879 – 3,882
SL: 3,890
TP: 3,865 → 3,850 → 3,836 → 3,810
👉 Suitable for short-term orders when the price reacts at high resistance.
🟢 Scenario 2 – Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,805 – 3,808
SL: 3,799
TP: 3,822 → 3,840 → 3,873 → 3,898
👉 Buy in line with the main trend when the price adjusts to the nearby support zone.
🟢 Scenario 3 – Buy Zone 2 (Deeper Support)
Entry: 3,745 – 3,742
SL: 3,735
TP: 3,765 → 3,780 → 3,798 → 3,820 → 3,850
👉 This is a value buy zone if the market adjusts strongly, suitable for short swings.
📊 Summary
The major trend of gold remains bullish, supported by the weakening USD and declining US yields.
In the short term, be aware of the potential for technical adjustments from the resistance 3,879 – 3,882.
Priority strategy: Buy on adjustments, Sell only for quick scalping.
📌 Note: Strict capital management, adhere to stop-loss to preserve profits when unexpected fluctuations from US news occur.
XAUUSD – Will ATH Diminish Gold's Value?Hello Traders,
Gold once accounted for up to 21% of total global assets, but now this figure is only about 5%. Two perspectives are clearly visible:
Gold is gradually losing its relative importance in the financial system.
The total value of global assets has increased significantly (the denominator has expanded), causing gold's proportion to decrease, while the absolute value of gold still plays an important role.
Technical Analysis
In today's Asian session, gold continues to set higher price levels, indicating a very strong upward momentum.
The upward price channel on H1 has touched the upper boundary, showing slight hesitation, but the main trend remains bullish.
The H1 and H4 frames maintain strong buying pressure, with market sentiment heavily leaning towards buyers, ready to push prices to higher levels.
According to Elliott Wave, the price is currently in wave 5 (market sentiment wave). The current task is to observe the reaction when this wave completes, to prepare for the ABC correction cycle.
Regarding Fibonacci, the next important resistance area is at 3880, where a bearish reaction is likely to occur.
Trading Scenario
Sell (at Fibo resistance 3880):
Entry: 3880
SL: 3886
TP: 3866 – 3850 – 3835
Buy (trend-following preferred):
Entry: 3813 – 3816
SL: 3809
TP: 3828 – 3843 – 3860 – 3878
👉 Note: Smaller frames H1 – M15 will provide additional confirmation signals to optimize entry points.
Conclusion
The bullish trend of gold is still prioritized, wave 5 is not yet complete, and the scenario aiming for 4000 – 4050 is entirely feasible.
Short-term selling at strong resistance areas can be considered, but risk management must be tight.
Traders need to closely follow support – resistance areas in smaller frames to maximize profits.
Follow me for the fastest updates when the price structure changes and to discuss more scenarios in the community.
H1 bullish momentum intact | Buy 3,792–3,765, target 3,821🟡 XAU/USD – 29/09/2025 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Structure & Trend
H1 continues to print consecutive BoS → bullish trend sustained.
Price broke the long-term downtrend line and surged to new highs.
EMA 34 & EMA 89 both pointing up and below price → confirming short-to-mid-term bullish momentum.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Key Zones
Storm Breaker (Sell Zone / ATH test) : 3,818 – 3,821
Golden Harbor (FVG – Buy Zone) : 3,792 – 3,779
OB Harbor 1 : 3,772 – 3,765
OB Harbor 2 (deeper) : 3,731 – 3,724
Core Idea: 3,792 – 3,765 is the main support “cushion” for trend-follow Buys; 3,818 – 3,821 is the wave edge where profit-taking may occur.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – main priority)
Buy Zone 1 – FVG (3,792 – 3,779)
Entry: 3,792 – 3,779
SL: 3,765
TP: 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821+
Buy Zone 2 – OB1 (3,772 – 3,765)
Entry: 3,772 – 3,765
SL: 3,758 (below 3,765)
TP: 3,792 – 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821
Buy Zone 3 – OB2 deep (3,731 – 3,724)
Entry: 3,731 – 3,724
SL: 3,714
TP: 3,745 – 3,765 – 3,792 – 3,805
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – scalp only)
Sell Zone – Storm Breaker (3,818 – 3,821)
Entry: 3,818 – 3,821
SL: 3,828
TP: 3,805 – 3,796 – 3,792
Breakdown Short (conditional)
Only consider Short if H1 closes below 3,724
SL: 3,735
TP: 3,710 – 3,700 – 3,690
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails remain filled after consecutive BoS . Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,792 → 3,765) is the anchor dock to board in trend’s direction. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,818 – 3,821) may trigger profit-taking waves – only go Quick Boarding 🚤 if clear signals appear. If the tide drags below 3,724, let the ship retreat to OB2 to gather strength before resuming the northbound voyage.”
Extended Inverted Head & Shoulders Structure in Price ActionThis chart features an extended inverted head and shoulders pattern, illustrating how these classic formations can significantly vary in length and shape across timeframes. The left and right shoulders frame a deeper head, while the neckline is not strictly horizontal but angled, reflecting real market dynamics. Observing these variations enhances one’s ability to identify patterns in imperfect conditions.
Key aspects include the evolving symmetry between the shoulders, the consistency of the head’s depth, and the interaction of price with the neckline angle. This post encourages traders to look beyond textbook structures and develop a refined eye for authentic technical setups, emphasizing pattern recognition without predicting price direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
Nifty – Potential Reversal ZoneNifty – Potential Reversal Zone
Nifty is testing a key support area once again, its third touch of the 100-EMA after previous successful reversals.
Price is also hovering near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, adding confluence.
A brief consolidation here could set up a strong upside move, but confirmation is critical after eight straight sessions of decline.
One should look for a decisive candle or volume pickup before taking any long trade.
In case it goes down further then next support areas are 24350, 24190, 23900.
✅ If you like my analysis, please follow me as a token of appreciation :)
in.tradingview.com/u/SatpalS/
📌 For learning and educational purposes only, not a recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
XAUUSD – Prioritise waiting to buy after gold hits ATHXAUUSD – Prioritise waiting to buy after gold hits ATH, target 3840
Hello Trader,
Right at the start of the week, gold has set a new ATH, affirming the upward trend remains dominant. The price structure on H1 shows buying pressure remains quite strong, while adjustments are mainly to balance liquidity. In the current context, the preferred trading strategy is still to wait to buy at key support zones, with a target towards 3840.
Basic Context
This week, the usual focus would be on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. However, the risk of a US Government shutdown might delay this crucial report.
The US fiscal year runs from 1/10 to 30/9. If Congress does not pass all 12 spending bills, agencies without funding will have to cease operations.
In the absence of important economic information, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven sentiment and fiscal policy uncertainty.
Technical View
The price has broken out and created an ATH, with the 3837 – 3840 zone currently being strong resistance (Fibonacci + market psychology).
The 3770 – 3773 zone is near support, coinciding with the trendline and previous liquidity, suitable for buying.
MACD on H1 shows buying momentum is maintained, but a correction is needed for price balance before breaking higher.
Trading Strategy
Short-term Sell (at resistance):
Entry: 3837 – 3840
SL: 3844
TP: 3830 – 3800 – 3770
Note: This is only a reactive order at resistance, going against the main trend, so manage risk tightly.
Preferred Buy (trend-following):
Entry: 3770 – 3773
SL: 3766
TP: 3784 – 3799 – 3810 – 3838
Conclusion
This week, gold still prioritises the Buy strategy at support zones. The main target is towards 3840, an important resistance zone and a benchmark for trend strength. The Sell order is only short-term at resistance, while the main scenario remains waiting for a correction to buy up.
Follow me for short-term scenario updates during the week, especially as news and US fiscal policy changes can significantly impact gold.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(29/09/2025)Bank Nifty is expected to open slightly gap up today around 54,400–54,450 levels, but the overall market structure still looks weak with sellers dominating recent sessions. On the upside, if Bank Nifty sustains above 54,550–54,600, then a short covering move can be seen, taking the index higher toward 54,750, 54,850, and 54,950+. However, this zone will act as a strong hurdle, and only a decisive breakout can shift momentum in favor of the bulls.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 54,450–54,400. A breakdown below these levels could accelerate selling pressure, opening the path toward 54,250, 54,150, and 54,050-. The bias remains weak, and traders should be cautious with long positions unless the index breaks and sustains above the resistance zone. Following the trend with strict stop-loss and quick profit booking will be the safer strategy in this slightly gap-up but overall bearish setup.
Gold awaits PCE | EMA squeeze, big waves ahead🟡 XAU/USD – 26/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Trump : Announced a 100% tariff on branded drugs if not produced in the US → escalating trade tensions.
PCE tonight : The FED’s most important inflation gauge, key to shaping October rate cut expectations (current probability 91.09%).
The market is in “hold breath” mode, awaiting the PCE spark to decide the next direction.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is squeezed between two winds – short-term EMA pressure and major expectations from PCE.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) remains below EMA 89 (red) → short-term bearish pressure persists, but narrowing gap signals big volatility ahead.
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
3,738 – 3,730
3,718
3,687
3,651
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,755 – 3,773
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
⚡ Sell (scalp at resistance)
Entry: 3,773 – 3,776
SL: 3,783
TP: 3,755 – 3,745 – 3,734
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy Zone 1 (Scalping)
Entry: 3,72x – 3,718
SL: 3,710
TP: 3,750 – 3,769 – 3,776
Buy Zone 2 (Deeper OB)
Entry: 3,685 – 3,683
SL: 3,675
TP: 3,690 – 3,695 – 3,700 – 3,705 – 3,7xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are being squeezed between EMA 34 & 89. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,734 – 3,683) remains the safe dock for sailors to await the big wave. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,773 – 3,776) is raising fierce waves, only suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Tonight’s PCE will be the decisive wind – either pushing the ship beyond 3,78x or forcing it back to retest 3,72x.”
📢 If you find Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the latest updates.
💬 What do you think? Will Gold break through 3,78x or retest 3,72x first?
LiamTrading – Medium-term Gold Outlook H4Let's prepare the scenario for the new week, folks!
In my opinion, gold in the coming week may start to show a medium-term correction phase. However, it is important to note that nothing is absolutely certain on a larger timeframe. If you are trading intraday, stay closely aligned with price action to ensure higher accuracy.
Gold closed the weekly candle at 3759.85 – a price level that clearly indicates hesitation. The end-of-week session showed a rejection of price increase, mainly due to profit-taking pressure, so it cannot be immediately confirmed that a downtrend will begin.
The upward price channel is still strong, so it is essential to maintain a buying trend mindset to ensure the confidence in holding profits remains firm.
The upward structure is still stable, but the RSI has reflected a weakening in buying sentiment. To confirm a medium-term correction, gold needs to break 3720. At that point, a reasonable strategy would be to wait to sell around 3737–3740 (retracing to the trendline), targeting the support area coinciding with the highest volume profile cluster at 3645.
Conversely, the buying scenario will occur when:
- Price touches the 3735 boundary and a candle rejection reaction appears.
- Or gold breaks above the minor resistance at 3780, in which case you can buy immediately, with expectations towards the 3850 area.
Next week, be patient and wait for market confirmation to increase the probability of success. I will continue to share detailed scenarios in each trading session for everyone to stay updated.
XAUUSD – New Week Scenario on D1 FrameXAUUSD – New Week Scenario on D1 Frame: Prioritise buying, the 3790 – 3720 zone decides the trend
Hello Trader,
Trading is a journey, and the most important destination is conquering oneself.
On the D1 frame, gold has experienced a series of consecutive strong increases, indicating that buyers still maintain the advantage. The buying force shows no clear signs of weakening, even though gold has recently reacted with a slight decrease around 3790. Currently, the price is accumulating around 3760 – the closing candle zone for this week.
Basic Outlook
Political pressure from President Trump on the Fed is increasing, as the market expects an easing move soon. However, Chairman Powell remains cautious, prioritising price stability over inflation issues.
This factor may continue to keep gold in the position of an important safe-haven asset, especially in the context of policy uncertainty.
Technical Outlook
The price zone of 3790 – 3720 will play a decisive role in the medium-term trend for next week.
If 3790 is broken, gold will have the opportunity to advance to the Fibonacci Extension zone of 3822. Further, strong resistance lies around 3840 – 3860.
If 3720 is breached, selling pressure will retest the strategic support zone at 3650. This is also the confluence area with the upward trendline on D1.
MACD Indicator: continues to support buyers, the histogram remains positive, not showing a clear decrease signal.
Volume: no significant selling pressure has appeared, indicating that gold is entering an accumulation phase, waiting for a breakout.
Trading Scenario for Next Week
Buying Scenario (priority):
Buy around 3650 – 3660 (if there is an adjustment).
SL: below 3640.
TP: 3720 – 3790 – 3822.
Selling Scenario at Resistance:
Sell around 3822 – 3830 (Fibo + strong resistance).
SL: above 3840.
TP: 3790 – 3760 – 3720.
Conclusion
In the medium term, the upward trend still prevails. Next week, gold will revolve around the 3790 – 3720 mark, and reactions here will pave the way for the next trend. The priority strategy is to buy at the support zone of 3650, while observing reactions at 3822 to consider short-term selling orders.
Short-term scenarios will be updated during the day, helping you be more proactive with market fluctuations.
Follow me and the community to update the earliest scenarios






















