XAUUSD Bullish Breakout with Retest & Rally Setup (1H Chart) Pair: XAUUSD (Gold vs US Dollar)
Timeframe: 1 Hour (1H)
Market Bias: Bullish
Strategy Type: Trendline Breakout + Order Block Retest + Liquidity Sweep + Momentum Continuation
📊 Technical Analysis:
🔹 1. Trendline Breakout:
A major descending trendline (bearish structure) was cleanly broken with strong bullish momentum.
This is a market structure shift and indicates potential trend reversal or at least a short-term bullish rally.
🔹 2. Break of Structure & Demand Zones:
Price broke above a key resistance zone (previous supply) around 3360, turning it into support/demand.
A new bullish order block (OB) is visible just below current price (~3340–3350), now acting as an entry zone.
A lower OB zone (~3300–3320) has been left unmitigated, which could act as a second deeper entry point if price retraces further.
🔹 3. Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (FVG):
There is a clean imbalance left between the current price and the lower OB. Price may wick into this zone before rallying.
This imbalance is acting like a magnet and could invite a retracement into the 3340–3320 zone.
🔹 4. Liquidity Engineering:
Buy-side liquidity was likely swept above the trendline break and recent highs.
Sellers trapped above the trendline may give fuel for a deeper push toward the next supply zone.
🔹 5. Target Supply Zone:
A clean and unmitigated supply zone lies between 3480–3500, the ultimate target for bulls if momentum sustains.
📍 Key Levels:
Type Price Range (Approx)
Current Price 3360.90
Entry Zone 1 (OB 1H) 3340 – 3350
Entry Zone 2 (OB 1H) 3300 – 3320
Target Supply Zone 3480 – 3500
Invalidation Below 3300
🎯 Trade Idea:
Entry: On bullish confirmation at 3340–3350 or deeper at 3300–3320
Stop Loss: Below 3300 (structure break + OB invalidation)
Target: 3480–3500 (clean supply zone above)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R): ~1:3 to 1:5 depending on entry zone
✅ Confluences Supporting This Setup:
✅ Trendline break + retest setup
✅ Price flipped previous resistance into support
✅ Strong bullish impulse breaking structure
✅ Bullish Order Block + Fair Value Gap (FVG) below price
✅ Clean upside liquidity pool in untested supply zone
✅ Momentum breakout candle confirms buyer strength
⚠️ Invalidation Criteria:
Breakdown and 1H close below 3300 invalidates the OB and bullish structure.
Be cautious around NFP or Fed-related news, which may spike volatility.
🔁 Potential Scenarios:
📈 Bullish Continuation:
Price retests OB (3340–3350), finds support, and rallies directly to 3480–3500.
🔁 Deeper Retracement:
Price may wick into the lower OB at 3300–3320 to grab liquidity, then rally.
❌ Invalidation:
Breakdown below 3300 = bearish reversal or deeper correction incoming.
📘 Summary Table:
Parameter Value
Bias Bullish
Entry Zone(s) 3340–3350 (primary), 3300–3320
Stop Loss Below 3300
Take Profit 3480–3500
Strategy Trendline Break + OB Retest + Imbalance
Confluences Break of Structure, Demand Zones, FVG, Trendline Break
