5 examples on Breakout vs Fakeout and Ideas for 3 Oct I make educational content videos for swing / positional trading
Trading!
Continued Bullishness in Ascending Channel PatternThe USD/JPY chart is currently tracking a clear bullish channel, with repeated bounces after each minor correction. Having just touched the lower boundary of the channel, the pair has shown signs of recovery, breaking above the nearest resistance level. This makes me confident in the possibility of a continuation of the bullish momentum, especially since the EMAs (34 and 89) are also starting to show an upward crossover, supporting the uptrend.
Flag BreakoutThe GBP/USD chart has now formed a flag pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish momentum after the breakout. For me, this is a key sign to consider buying. I expect a breakout near 1.32824 and a continuation of the next bullish move.
Gold remains close to record high Gold remains close to record high and yesterday gold price rallied over 1% and the main reason for this rise is geopolitical uncertainty, driving risk aversion and boosting safe-haven demand for OANDA:XAUUSD
ongoing tensions keep bullish momentum alive for new record highs, An escalation of the Middle East conflict could pave the way for higher prices. Although momentum favors buyers, also daily CPR moving into ascending side and also price trading above weekly pivot: but the Higher Time frame looks like in Sideways (2685-2630).
🔵 For Intra day Buy : Wait for breakout on 2670-72 area towards 2685 or higher level if breakout from recent ATH level.
🔵 For Intra day sell : Very risky to sell as due to geopolitical scenario but technically if price drops below 2,652-50 (breakdown CPR on H1 or H4) , the door opened to testing the recent low around 2630.
🔵 For Swing trade : Buy the dip is still valid
What is Rsi Indicator What Is the Relative Strength Index (RSI)?
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to detect overvalued or undervalued conditions in the price of that security.
The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100. The indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.
In addition to identifying overbought and oversold securities, the RSI can also indicate securities that may be primed for a trend reversal or a corrective pullback in price. It can signal when to buy and sell. Traditionally, an RSI reading of 70 or above indicates an overbought condition. A reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold condition.
Banknifty Professional Trading Setup Here are some things to know about the MACD histogram and divergences:
Divergence
A divergence occurs when the price action and momentum are not acting together. For example, if the price is making lower highs, but the histogram is making higher lows, this is a divergence.
Types of divergences
There are two types of divergences: peak-trough and slant.
Bullish divergence
A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD forms two rising lows that correspond to two falling lows in the price.
Bearish divergence
A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD forms two falling highs that correspond to two rising highs in the price.
Histogram bars
The length of the histogram bars indicate the relationship between the two moving averages. When the moving averages are moving away from each other, the bars are longer, and when they are getting closer, the bars are shorter.
MACD
The MACD is a momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. It's calculated by taking the difference between a 26-day and 12-day exponential moving average.
Gold Still Holding the Ground Gold return/Bounced from the first Re-loading area that I Marked in Monday update , the recent bounce also triggered due to war news: In today's morning update I was expecting more correction but bulls getting help from ongoing war news: Now if we watch the H4 timeframe we can see that the current correction is turning the chart into sideways range (2685-2630) and we have to wait for breakout from this range for clear direction : Shorting on war news can be dangerous so we have to wait for a breakout from support area or resistance area for next move.
Will Bitcoin Hit $45000 Next ?Bitcoin Rejected from Resistance
BTC has once again been rejected from the Bull Flag Resistance Line. I'm now expecting a significant correction, with BTC/USDT potentially testing the $45,000-$50,000 level before the next leg up.
Caution:
Avoid buying until the market stabilizes. Global uncertainty with war news is adding to the volatility.
Key Levels:
Support: $48,000
Resistance: $66,000
Bull market resumes if BTC breaks above $66,000.
ARIHANTSUPARIHANTSUP - The stock has formed a triangle pattern and breakout
Hello traders,
As always, simple and neat charts so everyone can understand and not make it too complicated.
rest details mentioned in the chart.
will be posting more such ideas like this. Until that, like share and follow :)
check my other ideas to get to know about all the successful trades based on price action.
Thanks,
Ajay.
keep learning and keep earning.
FCLFCL - Again back to same level 423 after take little dip.... expecting to move smoothly if market support......
Hello traders,
As always, simple and neat charts so everyone can understand and not make it too complicated.
rest details mentioned in the chart.
will be posting more such ideas like this. Until that, like share and follow :)
check my other ideas to get to know about all the successful trades based on price action.
Thanks,
Ajay.
keep learning and keep earning.
Axis Bank Target and analysis NSE:AXISBANK
Do as directed in the chart
This is not the trading recommendation or advise
Do your analysis before taking any step. 🚨👍
USDJPY: Recovery remains elusive below 146.30On Tuesday morning, USDJPY gained momentum, continuing its recovery from a support level that had been holding for two months. It’s getting closer to the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while still within a bearish trend that started in early August. This rise reflects the US Dollar's bounce after Fed Chair Jerome Powell eased expectations for two more 0.50% rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. However, traders look forward to upcoming US employment data and Japanese reports to see how the market will move.
Bulls flex muscles for a long road ahead…
In addition to bouncing off the two-month support zone, an upward trend in the RSI (14) and a potential bullish crossover on the MACD are boosting the USDJPY's rise toward the key EMA. However, the ongoing bearish trend channel and differing monetary policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could create challenges for the bulls.
Key technical levels to watch…
In the short term, the 200-EMA around 144.75 and the upper line of the bearish channel near 146.30 are significant hurdles for USDJPY buyers. If they push past these levels, the pair could rise toward the mid-August high around 149.40 and possibly hit the 150.00 mark. It's important to note that the 152.00 level seems to be the last stronghold for Yen sellers.
On the flip side, the horizontal support area between 141.75 and 141.65 offers some stability for USDJPY in the short term, protecting it from a drop toward the monthly low and the bottom of the bearish channel near 139.55 and 138.75. If the pair breaks below 138.75, the mid-2023 low of around 137.20 may serve as the final defense for buyers.
The road toward the north appears long and bumpy
While technical indicators hint at a potential recovery for USDJPY, the underlying fundamentals pose challenges for a sustained bullish move. Buyers should be cautious before making large investments.
Gold : More room for correction/ DeclineSo finally gold entered into correction phase and seems like there is more room for decline in this correction cycle :
Today CPR is descending and the last day candle is a good bearish candle and as discussed in yesterdays update the area around 2620-30 is a support zone with high volume and price is currently tested this zone and bouncing on Intra day but in Higher side we have descending CPR + Dynamic Trend Line resistance + FIB Resistance zone (2655-2662 for current cycle till last day), so under these resistance we can still look for sell opportunities towards weekly S1(2616) or low near 2600.
Currently I am watching chart on FXCM data feed and there maybe difference in levels that I am sharing : Let me know in if you see some changes /difference.
How to Draw Support and Resistance Like a Pro! Support and Resistance are one of the most important aspects of technical analysis but often I see traders doing it wrongly.
How to Draw Support and Resistance:
Imagine you have a chart filled with SR like the one below. Do you know which levels to pay attention to? When you’re about to start, how to plot support and resistance lines? It’s filled with nothing but lines and it doesn’t seem to make much meaning of the chart at all.
nah My approach to drawing Support and Resistance uses either
1 line or 2 lines. It is much cleaner and immediately tells you which area of the chart to pay attention to. I use a single line when price respect a level almost to the pip and i use 2 lines when price bounces off an area. I highlight only the key Support and Resistance of a chart meaning the obvious swing highs and lows. The intermediate SR i will not draw any lines so as to maintain my focus on the key areas. Besides, with enough screen time you can easily identify those intermediate Support and Resistance without any lines.
real world… You must keep in mind of the R.S.M. formula. These three things stands for:
Reaction Setup Management Now take notes because this is important… Reaction Here’s the truth: Drawing support and resistance lines aren’t the holy grail.
4 Stock Picks for Long term Gains | September Month End analysisI make educational content videos for swing / positional trading
EXIDEIND Support & Resistance
#EXIDEIND
Trend: Strong uptrend from January to June 2024, followed by a corrective phase. Currently consolidating with signs of a potential reversal.
Chart Pattern: Double Bottom pattern with a breakout above ₹490, signaling a possible trend reversal.
Candlestick: Strong bullish candle today (+5.42%) with no upper wick, indicating strong buying pressure.
Price Action: Support found at 460. Breakout above ₹490 shows buyer strength and momentum.
Volume: Significant volume spike (13.69M), confirming the breakout strength.
Buy Entry: Consider buying around ₹490-500 for potential upside.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below 460 (key support level).
Target: Initial target around 540, with potential to reach *580-1600 if momentum continues.
Gold High Volume Zone for Current Bullish RunIf price going to make a pullback in lower side then these are the area for re loading in buy(before test on these levels we can look for sell on Intra day):
Support area 1 with high Volume : 2620-30
Support area 2 with high Volume : 2575-2600
Bitcoin: BTCUSD tests 7-Week uptrend as September wraps upAfter three weeks of gains, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) kicks off the NFP week on a down note. It’s testing the 50-SMA support and approaching the lower end of its seven-week uptrend. Along with the US employment report for September, including the key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Monday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be crucial for market watchers. Stay tuned!
Buyers are struggling to gain traction, while sellers are still holding back
Whether it's pre-event nerves or month-end consolidation, Bitcoin buyers are struggling to gain market acceptance as the key week begins. Bearish MACD signals and the price's inability to hold above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from July to August are tempting short-term sellers. However, a quick drop in the RSI (14) and strong support levels below make it tough for bears to regain control.
Technical levels to watch
In the short term, the bottom of the bullish channel around $64,050 is a key support level for potential sellers. Below that, the 200-SMA near the $60,000 mark acts as the last line of defense for buyers. If Bitcoin (BTCUSD) falls below $60,000, a gradual decline toward the monthly low around $52,500 could be on the horizon.
For a rebound, Bitcoin needs to break past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at about $65,650. If successful, the monthly high of $66,500 and the upper boundary of the bullish channel around $68,900 will attract buyers. If Bitcoin moves past $68,900, it could quickly surpass $70,000 and aim for the yearly high of around $73,800 set in March.
Pullback in prices expected
Looking ahead, a potential bounce in the US Dollar and some price consolidation could lead to a pullback in BTCUSD. However, the overall bullish trend is likely to continue.
3 Swing trading ideas for 30 September Markets I make educational content videos for swing / positional trading
Gold approaches key upside hurdle ahead of US PCE InflationAfter hitting an all-time high, gold prices are losing momentum as buyers await the US September Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation.
Bulls may slow down, but are still in the game
On Thursday, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to discuss monetary policy joined the market’s dovish bets on the US central bank to propel the Gold price, especially amid the rush for a haven amid uncertain markets. Technically, the bullish MACD signals add strength to the upside bias for the precious metal. However, the overbought RSI (14) and nearness to an upward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, close to $2,695 at the latest, challenge the bullion’s further advances.
Technical levels to watch
With the overbought RSI indicating a $2,695 hurdle for gold buyers, the $2,700 level serves as an additional barrier to monitor for better trading opportunities. Beyond that, a potential surge toward the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of February-June moves, near $2,757, can’t be ruled out.
Gold sellers should watch for a clear break below the four-month resistance line at $2,620. If this occurs, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci Extension levels around $2,578 and $2,522 could draw in bears. Key targets below $2,522 include $2,467 and $2,399. That said, a break below the convergence of the 200-SMA and a year-long support line at $2,288 could signal a trend change for traders.
What next?
A positive surprise from the US Core PCE Price Index could spark the anticipated pullback in gold prices. However, the dovish Fed stance and strong technical support may prevent XAUUSD bears from gaining control.
REMSONSINDREMSONSIND - The stock has broken out by forming a pole and flag pattern
Hello traders,
As always, simple and neat charts so everyone can understand and not make it too complicated.
rest details mentioned in the chart.
will be posting more such ideas like this. Until that, like share and follow :)
check my other ideas to get to know about all the successful trades based on price action.
Thanks,
Ajay.
keep learning and keep earning.
EURUSD: Bulls need validation from 1.1200 and Fed Chair PowellEURUSD is gaining support after falling from a 14-month high, as buyers wait for comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.
Upside remains favored
The EURUSD pair is holding above a two-week rising support line and the 200-SMA, along with an upward trend line from late June, which keeps buyers optimistic. The steady RSI (14) also indicates a slow upward movement.
Technical levels to watch
Even with key support levels helping the EURUSD pair and the RSI suggesting an upward trend, the bulls may struggle to break through the horizontal resistance around 1.1200. If they succeed, the next targets could be the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions (FE) of the pair’s August-September moves, respectively near 1.1215 and 1.1265. The previous yearly high around 1.1275 is a crucial point for the bears; if that breaks, prices could reach the 2022 peak of 1.1495.
Meanwhile, EURUSD sellers should look for a clear drop below the immediate rising support line around 1.1125 to enter the market. However, the 200-SMA and a three-month trend line near 1.1080 and 1.0950 will be important obstacles for sellers. If the price stays below 1.0950, it could fall further toward the previous monthly low of 1.0780.
Charts, Powell in the spotlight
Along with the technical factors, comments from Fed Chair Powell will be important for EURUSD bulls. The recent rise is driven by market expectations of two more 0.50% rate cuts from the US central bank in 2024. If Powell dismisses these expectations, which seems unlikely, a downward reversal in Euro prices could happen.
The Growing Attraction in a Volatile WorldThe gold price chart shows a clear upward trend since the beginning of September, with the EMA 34 and EMA 89 both signaling a strong upward momentum. The weakening of the USD, along with global economic stimulus measures and political tensions, have pushed gold prices higher.
Especially in the context of major central banks around the world - from the US to Europe, and the People's Bank of China - all spreading monetary support packages like spring rain, further fueling the desire to invest in gold. Gold remains a safe haven and attractive asset in the current unstable context. Investors need to closely monitor market developments to seize opportunities and adjust strategies promptly.
