Bitcoin Ready to hit New Low?BITCOIN QUICK UPDATE: LEVELS PLAYING OUT EXACTLY AS EXPECTED
As we mentioned earlier, the $88,600 FVG has now been fully filled, and CRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently trading below that zone.
Here’s what matters next:
🔹 If $85,000 holds as support → BTC likely pushes toward the next major Bearish Order Block at ~$93,000.
High probability this zone gets tapped.
🔹 If BTC fails to reclaim and break above $88,000 → expect a deeper leg down toward ~$75,000.
Stay sharp. NFA.
Trading
Brian – Gold game plan for the US sessionBrian – Gold game plan for the US session
Gold’s rally yesterday shook a lot of traders out of position – the move was slow, steady and unforgiving, making it hard both to get in and to get out. For now, the short-term trend is clearer on H1, while H4 is still in transition.
Fundamental view – the Fed is confusing everyone
Fed expectations for December have been on a roller-coaster:
The market went from pricing a 25 bp cut in December at over 90%,
Then collapsed those odds to below 30%,
And has now swung sharply back again – all within about a month.
That kind of violent repricing in rate expectations usually creates two things for gold:
underlying support as soon as the market believes in easier policy again, and
choppy two-way volatility around each new data print or Fed comment.
So the macro backdrop still leans supportive for gold, but you do not want to ignore intraday whipsaws.
Technical view – H1 bullish, H4 testing the top of structure
On the H4 chart:Price is trading above the rising medium-term trendline from late October, keeping the broader structure constructive as long as 4,000 holds.
We are now pushing up towards the descending trendline and a H4 supply/FVG band between roughly 4,160 and 4,200.
Higher up sits a larger FVG / resistance block around 4,280–4,330 – if price ever accepts above the current downtrend line, that zone becomes a realistic upside magnet.
On H1:Structure is clearly bullish with higher highs and higher lows after yesterday’s impulsive move.
The current leg is extended, so I prefer to buy dips into support or a clean retest, rather than chase at the top of the candle.
Core bias: still prefer buys with the trend. Shorts are tactical, only at clear reaction zones.
Key levels
Resistance / sell zones
4,167–4,169: short-term reaction zone at the descending trendline and FVG
4,200–4,220: upper part of the same supply area
4,280–4,330: major H4 FVG / supply above
Support / buy zones
4,110–4,113: intraday support and potential retest area
4,080–4,070: minor support from recent consolidation
4,040–4,020: deeper pullback zone
4,000: key structural support; a break here would damage the bullish case
3,884: level that would confirm a medium-term bearish shift if price breaks and holds below
Trade scenarios (reference only, not financial advice)
Scenario 1 – Primary long: buy the dip into 4,110
Idea: stay with the bullish H1 structure, use the first decent pullback to get a better entry.
Entry: 4,110–4,113
Stop: 4,105
Targets: 4,125 → 4,140 → 4,180 → 4,200
I want to see price pull back into this zone after a push higher, ideally with a rejection wick or bullish candle confirming buyers are still in control.
Scenario 2 – Tactical short: fade the trendline at 4,167–4,169
Idea: counter-trend scalp from a clean confluence of resistance and FVG.
Entry: 4,167–4,169
Stop: 4,175
Targets: 4,155 → 4,140 → 4,120 → 4,105
This is not a swing short – it is a tactical trade against the intraday trend. Size should be smaller, and I would look to lock in profit or move to breakeven quickly if price reacts in our favour.
Scenario 3 – Breakout long if the trendline gives way
If gold pushes through the descending trendline and holds above the 4,170–4,180 zone:
I will shift back to a breakout-continuation mindset, looking to buy pullbacks above the broken trendline.
The next upside magnets then become 4,220 first and eventually the 4,280–4,330 FVG.
As long as 4,000 holds, I respect the upside and prefer to position with the trend, not against it. If we ever see a daily close below 4,000 and then 3,884, the whole story flips and I’ll start treating rallies as selling opportunities.
Trade the structure in front of you, not the headline noise. Manage risk around the shifting Fed expectations, and let the levels do the heavy lifting.
If this breakdown helps with your game plan, follow Brian for more gold updates during the US session and drop your own view in the comments so we can compare scenarios.
Decoding the Descending Triangle: Key Structure & FVG🔻Understanding the Pattern
- The chart above highlights a classic descending triangle pattern, easily visible by its series of lower highs (marked in red) and a relatively consistent demand zone acting as support.
- This resistance trendline (CT—Contraction Trendline) has been tested multiple times, confirming its significance as sellers consistently respond to price rallies by pushing back from lower levels.
🔻Equilibrium and Price Exploration
- Notice how price action moves from the equilibrium zone (EQ.)—the midpoint of the major move (from lows to all-time highs). This is a key area where supply and demand often rebalance
- The triangle structure forms as buyers continue to find value at support, while sellers become increasingly aggressive at lower highs, compressing price action over time.
🔻Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) in Focus
- A prominent Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG-WTF) is identified, which price has tapped multiple times. This repeated interaction demonstrates its importance as a liquidity pocket where imbalances are re-tested and absorbed.
- Each revisit to this FVG offers a valuable lesson on how strong institutional levels serve as magnets, attracting price to resolve open liquidity.
This post is for educational purposes, highlighting how price structures can be interpreted without suggesting any forecast or trade.
Brian – Gold Money Flow Map for the US Session TodayBrian – Gold Money Flow Map for the US Session Today
Technical analysis – trendline, FVG, and two clear scenarios
On H4, gold is still maintaining a medium-term uptrend line drawn from the end of October. The decline in the Asian session this morning was not strong enough to break the structure; the price touched the trendline and then bounced up, indicating that the sellers have not yet "crushed" this support area.
Current structure: The price is accumulating around the 4,050–4,080 area in a sideways candle cluster, lying on the uptrend line and above the 4,000 support.
Above, the 4,120–4,170 area is an FVG + important supply zone; higher is a larger FVG around 4,280–4,330 – if "filled," it is a potential area for a strong profit-taking move.
Below, the 4,000 mark is a key support; losing this mark, the price could quickly slide to the 3,884 area – marked on the chart as the level confirming a medium-term downtrend if breached.
Until 4,000 is broken, I consider this an accumulation area with a high possibility of "fake breaks" on both sides – so prioritize trading according to the trendline, not guessing tops and bottoms in the noise area.
Key levels
Resistance / sell zone: 4,100–4,110: buy confirmation zone, if rejected will become short-term supply
4,170–4,173: FVG / supply, medium-term short zone
4,280–4,330: large FVG above
Support: 4,048–4,050: trendline + intraday breakout zone
4,022–4,005: next support if the price slides off 4,040
4,000: psychological and structural support
3,884: final support; breaking down will confirm a medium-term downtrend
Trade scenarios (for reference, not investment advice)
1. Sell break intraday – follow the trend if the trendline breaks
Entry: sell when the price breaks the short trend at 4,048–4,050
SL: 4,056
TP: 4,040 → 4,022 → 4,005
Idea: if the price breaks below the current accumulation cluster and short trendline, I want to follow the initial selling force, targeting the adjacent support area 4,022–4,005. When the order goes right, SL can be moved to BE around 4,040.
2. Sell “premium” – short at the upper FVG zone
Entry: 4,170–4,173
SL: 4,178
TP: 4,160 → 4,145 → 4,122 → 4,100
This is a price zone I consider "beautiful" for medium-term trading if the market gives a deep retracement. FVG + H4 resistance converge; if the price is strongly rejected here, the TPs are successively the lower demand zone and the current range bottom.
3. Buy only after clean breakout – do not rush to catch the bottom
I am only interested in buy orders when the market structure truly confirms:
Trigger: H1/H2 candle closes clearly above 4,100
Entry: buy right around 4,100 after breakout
SL: 4,092
TP: medium-term towards the 4,145 → 4,170 → 4,230+ depending on momentum
This scenario considers 4,100 as the "exit door" from the current accumulation area. If this area holds as new support, buyers will have a clearer advantage and the money flow could push the price up to gradually fill the upper FVGs.
Gold Stuck Between 4050-4100. Now What?Gold price is currently trading in classic range-bound behavior on the daily timeframe, with price action consolidating between the 4050-4100 area (On closing basis ) as marked by the rectangle on the chart.
Based on the current technical setup, I'm anticipating continued consolidation for approximately 6-7 weeks from this point. However, this isn't likely to be a simple sideways move the consolidation is expected to carry a bearish undertone, meaning we may see more pressure toward the lower end of the range during this period.
after mid-January, conditions appear favorable for a fresh buying rally to develop. This consolidation phase may simply be the market gathering momentum for the next leg higher, allowing for profit-taking and position adjustments before the next bullish impulse.
While range trading can be tempting during consolidation phases,., buying on dips remains the more favorable approach.
FARTCOIN COLLAPSES BELOW $200M: END OF AN ERA?FARTCOIN COLLAPSES BELOW $200M: END OF AN ERA?
Fartcoin has officially plunged 94% from its January ATH, now trading around $0.18.
On-chain data (Arkham) shows Wintermute slashing its holdings from nearly 3% of supply → just 0.24%, triggering fears of a major market-maker exit.
Rumors point to an expiring dev loan driving aggressive sell-offs and mixed sentiment:
🔻 Bears: calling for $0.10
🔼 Bulls: eyeing an unlikely but possible $1-$2 rebound
Despite the wreckage, perp volumes remain high and funding flipped deeply negative, often a setup for short-term relief bounces in memecoins.
Volatile conditions ahead. Stay sharp.
NFA & DYOR
BITCOIN WEEKLY RSI SIGNAL JUST REPEATED – BIG MOVE LOADING? BITCOIN WEEKLY RSI SIGNAL JUST REPEATED – BIG MOVE LOADING?
This chart shows something MAJOR:
Across the last 5 market cycles, Bitcoin only touched this RSI demand zone at the bottom right before massive reversals:
1️⃣ 2015 bottom
2️⃣ 2018 capitulation
3️⃣ 2020 COVID crash
4️⃣ 2022 bear-market low
5️⃣ NOW: 2025 RSI touch again
Each time BTC hit this level → it triggered one of the strongest trend reversals of the cycle.
And now we’ve hit it again while price is consolidating inside the green accumulation zone.
Historically, this has been the highest-probability long-term opportunity zone in every cycle.
If history rhymes, the next big move might be closer than people think.
Stay sharp. NFA.
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H4 | Gold accumulates on the trendlineLiamTrading – XAUUSD H4 | Gold accumulates on the trendline, waiting to break the structure for a breakout
After testing the upward trendline twice, gold bounced up and then moved sideways around the 4065 area. On H4, this price zone has accumulated for almost a week – indicating that the selling force is not liquid enough to push the price down deeply, while there is still plenty of price gap above according to Fibonacci. My preferred scenario: gold continues to "compress" within the triangle, then breaks out to create a new wave.
Macro – Fed context
Fed member Collins emphasized that there is still reason to be cautious about cutting rates in the December meeting. She stated:
This is a complex phase, and it's not unusual for internal disagreements within the Fed.
The Fed must balance between the two goals of employment and inflation, which are moving in opposite directions.
This makes it difficult for the market to clearly price the interest rate scenario, so gold continues to choose to accumulate around important technical zones instead of breaking out in one direction.
Technical Analysis – Trendline, Fibonacci, Volume Profile
The current H4 structure is a triangle model with:
A downward sloping trendline from the old peak 42xx.
An upward sloping trendline from the late October low, acting as dynamic support.
Zone 4060–4070: the "balance" price zone last week – where the price moved sideways the longest, serving as a reference point for the short-term trend.
Key levels: 4132: near resistance, coinciding with the VAH area of the current Volume Profile.
4171: higher resistance, near the Fibonacci 1.0 area of the recovery wave.
4242: Fibonacci extension confluence zone (1.618) + historical resistance – where strong profit-taking is likely.
4347: 2.618 expansion zone – reference target if the peak is successfully broken.
4022 and 3997: important support close to the lower trendline – main buy zone if there is a liquidity sweep.
When the price decisively breaks out of one of the trendlines, the new trend on H4 will be clearer; the trading plan will follow this breakout direction.
Risk management and invalidation
H4 closes below 3997: the triangle structure is broken downward, fully prioritizing sell orders to lower zones – at that point, medium-term buy orders should not be held.
H4 closes above 4245 with good volume: considered a successful triangle peak breakout, discard all sell orders in this area and focus on buying according to the new trend.
Which scenario are you leaning towards for next week: breaking up to test 4242–4347 or sweeping down to 4022–3997 before bouncing back? Leave a comment and follow the LiamTrading channel on TradingView for daily XAUUSD updates.
XAUUSD – ACCUMULATION TRIANGLE ON D1💛 XAUUSD – ACCUMULATION TRIANGLE ON D1, AWAITING A NEW BREAKOUT THIS WEEK 🎯
🌤 Overview of the New Week
Hello everyone, Lana here 💬
Gold, after a very strong rise from the 3,500 region to above 4,400, is entering a "resting" phase on the D1 frame: the price continuously tests the upward trendline but has not yet broken it to confirm a downtrend.
The market is clearly waiting for a real breakout before forming a new medium-term wave.
Next week, we have CPI and PPI – important inflation data that could act as a catalyst to push gold out of the current accumulation zone.
💹 Technical Analysis (Daily Triangle)
On the D1 frame, when connecting the descending peaks and ascending bottoms, gold is in a narrowing triangle pattern.
The upward trendline below is still maintained, indicating that the medium-term trend has not reversed.
Below are important zones:
≈ 3,890: if the price closes below this area, it could confirm medium-term weakening.
Fibonacci & psychological resistance zone 3,800–3,900: strong support, confluence with old price structure.
POC Volume Profile around 3,650: if a deep decline scenario occurs, this will be the next price attraction zone.
Above, the old peak zone around 4,300–4,400 remains a large liquidity zone, a natural target if gold breaks the upper edge of the triangle.
In summary: the more compressed the triangle, the stronger the breakout – the direction will depend heavily on CPI/PPI data & Fed expectations.
🎯 Reference Trading Plan (Medium-Term)
💖 Scenario 1 – Maintain Uptrend (priority when the trendline is not broken)
Observe the reaction at the D1 upward trendline (area around 4,000).
If the price continuously bounces from the trendline and stays above the 3,890 area, you can:
Prioritize buying according to the trend at support retests on H4–H1.
Medium-term targets: 4,150 → 4,250 → 4,300–4,400 if the triangle breaks upwards.
💢 Scenario 2 – Triangle Breaks, Shifts to Medium-Term Decline
If D1 closes below 3,890:
Consider this a signal confirming medium-term weakening.
Prioritize selling at newly formed resistance zones.
Step-by-step targets: 3,800 → 3,700 (POC) → 3,500 (strong previous support).
In both scenarios, specific entry points should be refined on smaller frames (H4, H1) based on price action/OB/FVG.
⚠️ Note News & Risk Management
Next week's CPI & PPI could be the "final blow," pushing gold out of the triangle – volatility can be wide and fast, spreads may widen.
Last week's NFP news hardly created big waves for gold after the US government shutdown, indicating the market is holding strength waiting for more important data.
🌷 Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2
Gold on D1 is in the final stage of the accumulation triangle – this is a time where patient observation is as important as a beautiful entry point 💛
Next week, I will continue to update daily details on smaller frames so everyone can have more specific entry points.
Gold is stuck in a wide range, ready for a decisive break.Good evening traders, Brian here with a fresh look at gold on the 2-hour chart.
Price is compressing in a broad sideways range, building energy for the next leg – the break from this structure will set the tone for the coming sessions.
Fundamental analysis
The core driver remains the Fed’s December decision. The market is effectively split on whether we see a cut or a delay:
A camp of institutions argues that rising unemployment and softer data could still justify a 25-basis-point cut in December, keeping pressure on the dollar and supporting gold on dips.
Others point out that the Fed is short of clean, up-to-date data and may prefer to wait until next year before committing to an easing cycle.
As a result, pricing for a December cut is roughly “fifty–fifty” and highly sensitive to the next run of labour-market and activity data.
In short: the macro backdrop is undecided, so intraday direction will be driven mainly by levels and liquidity until the next data catalyst hits.
Technical analysis
On the H2 chart, gold is in a broad consolidation after the recent sell-off:
Price is trading inside a descending structure, repeatedly respecting the short-term trendline from the recent high.
The Fibonacci retracement of the latest impulse shows the 0.382 level lining up with a prior fair-value gap and horizontal resistance – this forms a key rejection zone overhead.
Below price, there is a confluence of support where the rising trendline meets a small bullish FVG around 4027–4029, followed by a more important horizontal support band near 3998.
The volume profile highlights a Value Area High (VAH) around 4075–4080, which is likely to act as a reaction zone if price rotates back into it.
Until we break convincingly out of this structure, I treat it as a large accumulation range with a slight downside bias: sellers are still defending lower highs, but buyers are stepping in aggressively at trendline support.
Key levels
Resistance zones:
4080–4085 (VAH / short-term supply)
4135–4145 (Fibonacci 0.382 + FVG + structural resistance)
Support zones:
4027–4029 (trendline + FVG confluence buy area)
3995–4000 (important horizontal support)
3940 region (deeper support if the range finally breaks down)
Trade scenarios
1. Primary long – buy the trendline/FVG confluence
Entry: 4027–4029
Stop: 4023
Targets: 4035 – 4050 – 4068 – 4080
Idea: look for price to react at the rising trendline where it overlaps with the small FVG. A clean rejection candle or shift in intraday order flow from that zone sets up a rotation back towards the VAH and potentially the upper boundary of the range.
2. Break-and-retest short – if the trendline fails
Trigger: clear H1/H2 close below the rising trendline and the 4027 area
Plan: wait for price to retest the underside of the broken trendline / prior support
Entry: on rejection of that retest
Initial targets: 4000, then 3940 if momentum accelerates
This scenario treats any breakdown as a structural shift, using the retest as a lower-risk point to join the move rather than chasing the first leg.
3. Intraday scalp zones
These are discretionary, short-term opportunities for active traders:
Reaction sells: around 4085, and higher up if we spike into the 4135–4145 resistance band. Look for exhaustion or rejection patterns back into the range (potential targets 4060 then 4033).
Reaction buys: into 3998–4000 if we see a liquidity sweep below the current range, with tight stops and quick profit-taking back towards the mid-range.
Part 6 Learn Institutional TradingTypes of Options Strategies
Option strategies are divided into two broad categories:
- Directional Strategies
Used when you expect the market to move strongly in one direction.
1. Long Call
Profit from big upward moves.
2. Long Put
Profit from major downward moves.
3. Bull Call Spread
Buy call + Sell call (higher strike)
Reduces cost and risk.
4. Bear Put Spread
Buy put + Sell put (lower strike)
$SUI JUST ENTERED ITS DO-OR-DIE ZONE CRYPTOCAP:SUI JUST ENTERED ITS DO-OR-DIE ZONE AND THE WEEKLY CHART IS SCREAMING A REVERSAL SETUP
Everyone is panicking at the dump…
But nobody is seeing what actually happened on the HTF:
🔹 Massive Liquidity Grab Completed — identical to the 2024 bottom pattern.
🔹 Price nuked directly into FVG + Bullish Order Block.
🔹 Strong rejection wick = smart money accumulation confirmed.
🔹 Macro trendline STILL intact. Structure STILL bullish.
But let’s be Honest:
👉 Market condition is extremely worst right now.
👉 All altcoins dumped hard.
👉 CRYPTOCAP:SUI is –75% down from its Jan 2025 ATH… 10 months of pure bleeding.
Still, the chart is loading something big.
Here’s my IMO approach:
🔹 Accumulation Zone 1: $1.35 – $1.15
🔹 Accumulation Zone 2: $0.90 – $0.75
⭐ Don’t try to buy once.
⭐ No one knows the exact dip.
⭐ Smart way = accumulate slowly inside these zones.
Strong bounce potential sits exactly from the FVG → Bullish OB confluence.
If SUI breaks $4.8 resistance?
Targets: $5 → $10 → $20
IMO one day CRYPTOCAP:SUI will hit $20 easily.
But of course, Not financial advice. DYOR before investing.
$BTC STANDING ON ITS LAST SUPPORT: READ THIS BEFORE YOUR TRADEBITCOIN TECH UPDATE — FRESH LEVELS, FRESH PAIN
CRYPTOCAP:BTC just dumped to $80,641, making a new low since 12 April 2025.
That’s almost -30% from my Short + Exit levels.
Those who Rode the Short, Enjoy the profits.
Those who avoided chasing above $120k, capital saved again.
Where We Stand Now
Bitcoin is sitting exactly on the 0.786 Fib ($83,300), the strongest bullish support left on the chart.
This level = Bulls’ last hope.
If daily candle doesn’t close below $83,300, then expect a relief rally into upside inefficiencies:
Upside Targets (If 0.786 Holds)
$88,600 → major unfilled FVG
$93,000 → bearish Order Block (high probability fill)
$98,000 → another upside FVG waiting to be delivered
Watch how price behaves at these levels — next macro move will be decided there.
If 0.786 Fib Breaks…
Be ready.
Next liquidity pools: $73,000 / $66,000
Both zones have massive bullish orderflow waiting.
If 0.786 support holds → BTC still has high probability to push for a new ATH.
Summary:
Trend still bearish, but BTC is now at a critical support.
Hold → relief rallies + possibly new ATH.
Break → $73k–$66k incoming.
Stay sharp. Watch the levels. Trade with intention.
NFA &" DYOR
Bitcoin is in a clean daily downtrend right nowBitcoin is in a clean daily downtrend right now – every bounce is just providing fuel for the next leg until the structure says otherwise.
Good evening traders, Brian here with a higher-timeframe look at BTCUSD.
Fundamental analysis
Bitcoin has been under sustained pressure even as some funds continue to accumulate spot positions. A few key points:
Macro uncertainty and tighter dollar liquidity are weighing on high-beta assets. While gold has held up relatively well, the performance gap between BTC and XAU has been widening in recent weeks, highlighting a clear risk-off tone towards crypto.
On-chain and fund flows suggest that a number of crypto investors are actually de-risking and pulling capital out, which reduces market depth and makes downside moves more violent when liquidity is thin.
Narrative is still mixed: long-term holders and some institutions are happy to buy lower, but in the short term the order flow is dominated by forced selling, deleveraging and risk reduction.
Bottom line: the macro backdrop does not yet justify an aggressive “buy the dip” approach on BTC. Trend-following shorts remain safer than trying to call the bottom.
Technical analysis
Daily structure is clearly bearish:
We have a confirmed market structure shift on the left of the chart, with the prior higher-low support broken and a series of decisive lower lows since then.
The main bullish trendline from earlier in the year has given way, and price is now travelling within a steep descending leg.
BTC recently tagged the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the last major swing, aligning with a prior liquidity pocket. That produced a sharp intraday bounce, but so far it looks like a reaction inside a downtrend, not a full reversal.
Around 75.4k we have an important daily support zone. If this level is broken and accepted below, it opens the door to a deeper flush towards the next large support band lower on the chart.
Overhead, there is a clean imbalance/FVG and prior distribution area around 108k, with an intermediate resistance block around 96–97k and a nearer supply zone around 88k. These are prime locations to look for fresh shorts if price retraces.
For now my bias is simple: look to sell rallies into premium levels; any longs are tactical, short-term trades off key support only.
Key levels
Resistance / short zones:
88,000 – first reaction zone, “pay attention to the reaction”
96,500–97,200 – main short entry area for medium-term positions
108,000 – higher FVG / major daily supply
Support / long-only intraday zones:
75,400 – key support + 1.618 Fib/liquidity zone
74,000–72,000 – deeper support if 75.4k fails
Trade scenarios (for reference, not financial advice)
1. Short the first meaningful pullback – 88k area
Entry: 88,000
Stop: 90,000 (above local structure)
Targets: 82,000 → 78,000 → 75,500
Idea: treat 88k as the first supply zone in a downtrend. If price bounces from current levels and stalls here, I’m looking for rejection (wick rejections, failed break, or a clear shift in intraday structure) to join the trend. Once price moves in favour, I would look to pull the stop to breakeven and let the position run.
2. Core swing short – 96.5k–97.2k zone
Entry: 96,500–97,200
Stop: 99,000
Targets: 88,000 → 82,000 → 75,500
This is my preferred “medium-term” sell area. It aligns with a more significant daily supply block and offers better risk–reward if the larger bearish leg continues. Any squeeze into this region after a series of lower lows is, in my view, a controlled opportunity to reload shorts.
3. Tactical long only at deep support
Entry: 75,400–74,800
Stop: 73,800
Targets: 82,000 → 88,000
Here I would only consider a short-term long if we see a clean liquidity sweep into the 1.618 extension and strong rejection (long lower wicks, aggressive buy-back). The idea is simply to trade the bounce back into resistance, not to fight the higher-timeframe downtrend.
If BTC loses 75.4k and starts closing below it on the daily, I would become much more cautious on any long exposure and focus almost entirely on short setups towards the lower “important support” zone on the chart.
Trade with the trend, respect your risk, and don’t get trapped trying to be a hero at the bottom of a falling market.
If this BTC breakdown adds value to your plan, make sure you follow Brian for more daily BTC and gold analysis, and share your own view in the comments so we can compare scenarios.
$BTC Just Printed Another LL: Next Draw Is Locked InCRYPTOCAP:BTC Just Printed Another LL: Next Draw Is Locked In
Market is maintaining a clear bearish orderflow with continuous LH → LL sequence.
Structural Notes
🔹 Previous major FVG (distribution zone) has been fully filled and delivered downside.
🔹 Multiple BOS events confirm continuation of the bearish leg.
🔹 Recent sweep followed by another LL shows sellers still in full control.
🔹 INDUCEMNET zone rests around $93160, high-probability inefficiency for short-term retracement.
🔹 Major unmitigated FVG remains at $100800, acting as a premium draw if price seeks liquidity.
Expectations
🔹 Retracement likely into nearby inefficiencies:
🔹 IND @ $93160 → high-probability mitigation
🔹 FVG @ $100800 → medium-probability mitigation (only if deeper pullback unfolds)
🔹 Trend remains bearish until market delivers a ChoCh above $107.5K.
Current Bias: Bearish
Short-Term Draw: IND (mid-range inefficiency)
Mid-Term Draw: Unmitigated FVG (premium zone)
Invalidation: ChoCh above $107.5K
NFA & DYOR
Bitcoin Most Critical 40 Days of the Entire Cycle🚨 Bitcoin Most Critical 40 Days of the Entire Cycle 🚨
CRYPTOCAP:BTC Yearly Fractal is clear: RED → 3 GREEN → BIG RED.
2025 = Candle 3, historically the strongest and always breaks ATH.
Bitcoin can hit a new ATH ONLY this year.
If BTC does not break ATH in the next 40 days, history shows it never breaks the 3rd candle high the following year: Meaning 2025 becomes the cycle top, and 2026 turns into a 50–70% retracement year ($30k–$40k).
✔ Break ATH → $150k–$180k
❌ No ATH → Biggest Correction of the Cycle in 2026
NFA & DYOR
Part 12 Trading Master Class With ExpertsMoneyness of Options
Options are classified as:
In the Money (ITM)
At the Money (ATM)
Out of the Money (OTM)
Call Options
ITM: Stock price > Strike price
ATM: Stock price = Strike price
OTM: Stock price < Strike price
Put Options
ITM: Stock price < Strike price
ATM: Stock price = Strike price
OTM: Stock price > Strike price
Moneyness affects premium value, risk, and probability of profit.
Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20thGood morning everyone, Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th. The ABC correction phase of gold is nearly complete, and the market is preparing to enter a new wave phase amidst a flurry of USD data today.
Fundamental Analysis
Today's focus remains on the US labor data: NFP (or revisions), Unemployment Rate, and Initial Jobless Claims.
If the data shows a cooling labor market, expectations for the Fed to soon pivot to a rate-cutting cycle will rise, weakening real yields, putting pressure on the USD, and supporting gold prices.
Conversely, "too good" data will strengthen the dollar, allowing for a short-term repricing move, potentially dragging gold down to lower liquidity zones before recovering.
US session liquidity may be thin before the news release, making it prone to spikes due to algorithms and large flows simultaneously adjusting positions.
Overall, the macro backdrop still favors "buying the dip" for gold, but you must accept strong volatility around news time.
Technical Analysis
On the chart, gold has completed an ABC corrective wave within a descending channel, part of a larger uptrend.
The current descending channel only serves as a corrective leg after the previous upward wave; prices are trading above the "mean" area of the bullish structure, indicating the larger market structure remains bullish.
Below is the liquidity zone / demand zone 4013–4015, coinciding with the previous low and the lower channel boundary – if there's another stop-hunt to this area, it is still considered an opportunity to join the upward move, as long as 4008 is not breached.
Above, the 4086–4100 cluster is the decision zone: breaking and holding above here will confirm exiting the corrective channel, triggering an impulsive leg towards resistances 4132–4146 and further to 4187.
In summary, the main bias remains bullish, prioritizing buy strategies at support zones or after breakout confirmation.
Key Price Levels
Resistance: 4086 – 4100 – 4110 – 4132 – 4146
Support: 4040 – 4030 – 4015
Trading Scenarios
Buy Scenario 1 – Continuation Breakout
Entry: 4086
SL: 4078
TP: 4100 – 4120 – 4140
Prioritize when price breaks up and retests 4086–4100 as a new support zone, confirming exit from the descending channel.
Buy Scenario 2 – Deep Liquidity Sweep
Entry: 4015–4013
SL: 4008
TP: 4030 – 4045 – 4070
Watch for strong price reactions at the demand zone, with pin bars or engulfing candles signaling order flow returning to buyers.
Sell Scenario – Sell Reaction at Strong Resistance
Entry: 4144–4146
SL: 4151
TP: 4132 – 4120 – 4100
Short-term sell strategy, leveraging the high supply zone if price rises straight up without sufficient accumulation.
The medium-term upside target if the bullish wave develops as expected remains the 4187 area.
What do you think of this scenario? Remember to follow Brian for daily gold insights and comment your views below to join the discussion.
$ETH UPDATE – FVG FILLED & STRUCTURE CLEANEDCRYPTOCAP:ETH UPDATE – FVG FILLED & STRUCTURE CLEANED
CRYPTOCAP:ETH just bounced perfectly from the $2,880 FVG and the entire downside imbalance is now fully filled, meaning no remaining bearish FVGs below.
Structure is clean… Ethereum is now technically READY for upside continuation.
Only one concern:
👉 Bullish OB zones: $2,622 & $2,256
If we dip into these OB levels → that’s the BEST accumulation zone for a $10K–$15K ETH target in the next cycle.
Don’t miss any major dip on Ethereum imo.
Smart money accumulates when the chart is clean and now it is. 🚀
NFA & dYOR
Multi-Timeframe Structure and Supply Observations-Green Broadening Pattern
A distinct broadening pattern is forming, mapped out by the green lines on the daily chart. This structure highlights expanding volatility, which often captures both swing highs and lows as price oscillates between opposing boundaries.
-Monthly High-Low Anchors
The orange horizontal lines represent the high and low of the first monthly candle, visible on the right—these serve as crucial long-term reference levels.
-Purple Box and Monthly Supply Manipulation
Up near the orange monthly resistance, the purple box marks a period of price interaction and ‘manipulation’ around the top supply. This box encapsulates a classic area where aggressive sellers and liquidity seekers converge, sometimes engineering fakeouts or squeezes before the real direction is chosen.
-Equilibrium and Rounded Higher Lows
Within the broadening pattern, a clear equilibrium zone is formed (represented by the midline drawn through the structure). This acts as a median for price oscillations and often becomes a pivot for both upward and downward moves. The two semi-circular white arcs on the left chart illustrate the emergence of higher lows
-Context from Monthly Timeframe
On the right, the monthly chart remains essential for framing all of the above
This analysis is solely observational and intended for educational purposes. No forecasts or trade signals are provided. Please exercise full discretion and undertake your own due diligence before making any trading decisions.






















