Bitcoin bearish scenario updateCRYPTOCAP:BTC Update
#Bitcoin is still trading below the key $93K–$94K resistance, so my bearish bias remains unchanged.
As long as price stays below this HTF bearish OB, I’m expecting continuation toward $75,000.
❌ This Bearish scenario only invalidates if we get a strong HTF close above $94,000.
Until then: rallies = selling pressure. Stay disciplined & manage risk.
NFA & DYOR
Trading
XAUUSD H1 – Trading Liquidity During the Year-End SessionXAUUSD H1 – Trading Liquidity During the Year-End Session
Gold remains in a bullish structure, but this is a holiday market with weaker liquidity as many banks are closed. The best approach here is to trade around liquidity and value areas, rather than chasing price during extended moves.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
On H1, price continues to respect an ascending channel, moving through expansion and pullback phases.
After the latest strong push, the market is now consolidating and rotating, which typically favours level-based execution.
Momentum remains positive overall, but it is not accelerating aggressively, suggesting selective buying and a higher probability of liquidity sweeps during thin conditions.
PRIORITY SCENARIO – MAIN PLAN
Buy the pullback at key liquidity zones inside the bullish channel
Buy liquidity zone: 4475 – 4478
Buy POC zone: 4409 – 4412
Technical rationale:
The 4475–4478 area is a near-term liquidity pocket within the channel where buyers often step in during technical pullbacks.
The 4409–4412 region aligns with the Volume Profile POC, a value area where price frequently stabilises and rebalances supply and demand.
Expected price behaviour:
A corrective move into these liquidity zones, followed by a bullish reaction, can set up the next leg higher within the channel structure.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO – SECONDARY PLAN
Short-term sell only at the upper boundary as a scalp
Sell zone: 4565 – 4469
Context:
This zone sits near the upper channel boundary where profit-taking is common, especially when liquidity is thin. Any sell idea should be treated as a short-term scalp rather than a trend reversal.
WHY LIQUIDITY-BASED TRADING MATTERS HERE
Holiday sessions can produce irregular flows, sharp spikes, and stop runs
Volume Profile helps define higher-probability execution areas instead of emotional entries
Trading around value and liquidity improves consistency when price action becomes less reliable
FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP AND MARKET SENTIMENT
OANDA traders highlight multiple drivers behind the strength in precious metals, with longer-term projections pointing to further upside for gold and silver next year. The narrative remains supported by safe-haven demand, expectations of easier monetary conditions, and a softer USD tone.
Still, in the short term, the holiday environment can distort price action, making liquidity zones even more important for execution.
XAUUSD (H1) – Trading Buy LiquidityStay bullish with the rising channel, buy the pullback into liquidity
Quick view
Gold is still moving inside a rising channel. After the strong impulsive push, price is now consolidating / compressing. For today, I’m prioritizing BUY setups at liquidity + trendline retests, while keeping a reaction SELL plan at the premium Fibonacci zone above.
Macro context (why volatility can stay elevated)
Trump signing a record number of executive orders and the growing shift of power towards the executive branch increases policy uncertainty (tariffs, federal cuts, geopolitical moves). In uncertain environments, flows often rotate into safe-haven assets like gold. That said, this kind of headline risk can also move the USD sharply, so the best approach is still: trade the levels, not emotions.
Key Levels (from your chart)
✅ Buy zone Liquidity: 4410 – 4413
✅ Buy trendline retest: 4480 – 4483
✅ Sell zone (Fibo 1.618): 4603 – 4606
Today’s trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level)
1) BUY scenario (priority)
A. Trendline retest = best structural entry
Buy: 4480 – 4483
SL: below the zone (guide: 4472–4475, adjust on lower TF / spread)
TP1: 4515 – 4520
TP2: 4580 – 4600
B. Deeper liquidity buy (if we get a sweep)
Buy: 4410 – 4413
SL: below the zone (guide: 4402–4405)
TP: 4480 → 4520
Logic: These are the cleanest liquidity areas on the chart. No chasing mid-range — I only act when price returns to the zone and reacts.
2) SELL scenario (reaction only — no chasing)
Sell: 4603 – 4606
SL: 4612
TP1: 4550
TP2: 4483
Logic: The 1.618 premium zone often attracts profit-taking. I only sell if price taps the zone and shows clear weakness on the lower timeframe.
Notes
If price keeps holding the trendline and printing higher lows → BUY bias remains stronger.
If we break the trendline and fail to reclaim it → reduce size and wait for a fresh structure.
Which side are you leaning today: buying the pullback, or waiting for 4603–4606 to sell the reaction?
XAUUSD (H1) – Trading BUY Liquidity Stay bullish with the rising channel, buy the pullback into liquidity
Quick view
Gold is still moving inside a rising channel. After the strong impulsive push, price is now consolidating / compressing. For today, I’m prioritising BUY setups at liquidity + trendline retests, while keeping a reaction SELL plan at the premium Fibonacci zone above.
Macro context (why volatility can stay elevated)
Trump signing a record number of executive orders and the growing shift of power towards the executive branch increases policy uncertainty (tariffs, federal cuts, geopolitical moves). In uncertain environments, flows often rotate into safe-haven assets like gold.
That said, this kind of headline risk can also move the USD sharply, so the best approach is still: trade the levels, not emotions.
Key Levels (from your chart)
✅ Buy zone Liquidity: 4410 – 4413
✅ Buy trendline retest: 4480 – 4483
✅ Sell zone (Fibo 1.618): 4603 – 4606
Today’s trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level)
1) BUY scenario (priority)
A. Trendline retest = best structural entry
Buy: 4480 – 4483
SL: below the zone (guide: 4472–4475, adjust on lower TF / spread)
TP1: 4515 – 4520
TP2: 4580 – 4600
B. Deeper liquidity buy (if we get a sweep)
Buy: 4410 – 4413
SL: below the zone (guide: 4402–4405)
TP: 4480 → 4520
Logic: These are the cleanest liquidity areas on the chart. No chasing mid-range — I only act when price returns to the zone and reacts.
2) SELL scenario (reaction only — no chasing)
Sell: 4603 – 4606
SL: 4612
TP1: 4550
TP2: 4483
Logic: The 1.618 premium zone often attracts profit-taking. I only sell if price taps the zone and shows clear weakness on the lower timeframe.
Notes
If price keeps holding the trendline and printing higher lows → BUY bias remains stronger.
If we break the trendline and fail to reclaim it → reduce size and wait for a fresh structure.
Which side are you leaning today: buying the pullback, or waiting for 4603–4606 to sell the reaction?
XAU/USD – Bullish trend, focus on Buying the DipMarket Context
Gold remains in a bullish environment, trading within an ascending structure. The recent pullback appears to be a technical retracement after an impulsive move, not a trend reversal.
From a fundamental perspective, expectations of a more accommodative Fed continue to weigh on the USD, keeping gold supported on dips. This backdrop favors trend-following BUY strategies rather than aggressive SELLs.
Technical Structure (H1)
Overall structure remains Higher High – Higher Low
Price is holding above the ascending trendline
No confirmed bearish Break of Structure
Current phase = rebalancing / pullback within uptrend
Key Zones on Chart
OBS BUY Zone: 4,483 – 4,475
Deeper Support: 4,457
Near Resistance: 4,515
Upper Resistance / Target: 4,534
Major Supply: 4,566
Trading Plan – MMF Style
Primary Scenario – Trend Continuation BUY
Wait for price to pull back into the OBS BUY zone (4,483 – 4,475)
Look for bullish reaction / structure hold on lower timeframes
This zone aligns with demand + trend support
Targets
TP1: 4,515
TP2: 4,534
TP3: 4,566 (expect reaction / profit-taking)
Alternative Scenario
If price breaks above 4,534 with acceptance
→ Expect a push toward 4,566, but avoid chasing at premium
Invalidation
A H1 close below 4,457 would weaken the bullish structure and shift bias to neutral.
Summary
Gold remains bullish as long as structure support holds. The priority is to buy pullbacks at key demand zones, manage risk near resistance, and avoid emotional entries at the highs.
XAUUSD – Bullish Channel AnalysisLana stays bullish, waiting for pullbacks to buy 💛
Quick summary
Trend: Clearly bullish, price is moving inside a well-defined rising channel
Timeframe: H1
Current state: Price is near the upper part of the channel, so a psychological reaction near Fibonacci extension is possible
Strategy: No chasing. Lana prefers buying pullbacks into value/liquidity zones
Market context
Gold remains strong into year-end, even as liquidity becomes thinner. The current push higher looks very momentum-driven, and Fibonacci extension areas often act as short-term “reaction zones” before the next directional decision.
On the longer-term side, bold forecasts like Jim Rickards’ view (gold potentially reaching very high levels in 2026) show that bullish sentiment in precious metals is still alive. Still, for Lana, short-term trading must follow structure and zones, not headlines.
Technical view: price inside a rising channel
On the chart, gold is respecting a clean ascending channel, consistently printing higher lows.
Key observations:
The upper Fibonacci extension area around 4603–4607 is a psychological barrier, where a short-term pullback can happen.
The best entries are usually found when price returns to value areas inside the channel, not at the top.
Key levels Lana is watching
Primary buy zone – Value Area (VL)
Buy: 4482 – 4485
This is a value area inside the rising channel. If price pulls back here and structure holds, continuation to the upside becomes more likely.
Deeper buy zone – Liquidity POC
Buy: 4419 – 4422 (POC)
This level shows heavy prior accumulation on the Volume Profile. If year-end liquidity causes a deeper shakeout, this zone becomes a safer area to look for buys.
Trading notes
4603–4607 is a psychological resistance zone — not a place to chase longs.
Only buy when price reaches the planned zone and shows confirmation on the lower timeframe.
With thin liquidity: reduce position size and keep risk tight.
Lana’s note 🌿
The trend is strong, but patience at the right entry matters more than catching every move. Lana follows structure, not emotions.
Policy Matters in Trading DevelopmentBuilding a Stable, Transparent, and Growth-Oriented Market Ecosystem
Trading development does not happen in isolation. It is deeply influenced by government policies, regulatory frameworks, monetary decisions, and institutional rules that shape how markets function. Policies act as the backbone of trading ecosystems by ensuring fairness, transparency, stability, and long-term growth. Without strong and adaptive policies, trading markets can become vulnerable to manipulation, excessive volatility, and systemic risks. The following discussion explains in detail why policy matters are crucial in trading development and how they impact different dimensions of financial markets.
1. Role of Policy in Market Stability
One of the primary objectives of trading-related policies is maintaining market stability. Financial markets are sensitive to economic shocks, speculative excesses, and global events. Regulatory policies such as circuit breakers, margin requirements, and position limits help prevent panic-driven crashes and extreme volatility. These mechanisms protect both retail and institutional investors from sudden market breakdowns and ensure orderly trading conditions.
Stable markets encourage long-term participation, attract foreign investors, and build confidence in the financial system. Without such policies, markets can experience frequent bubbles and crashes, undermining economic growth.
2. Ensuring Fairness and Transparency
Fair trading practices are the foundation of healthy market development. Policies related to disclosure norms, insider trading restrictions, and market surveillance ensure that all participants operate on a level playing field. Transparent rules require companies to disclose financial results, material events, and governance practices, enabling traders to make informed decisions.
Strong transparency policies reduce information asymmetry, where only a few participants have access to critical information. This builds trust, especially among retail traders, and increases overall market participation.
3. Investor Protection and Confidence
Investor protection policies are essential for sustainable trading development. Regulations governing broker conduct, client fund segregation, grievance redressal mechanisms, and compensation funds protect investors from fraud and misconduct.
When traders feel protected, they are more willing to participate actively in markets. Investor confidence leads to higher liquidity, better price discovery, and deeper markets. In contrast, weak protection policies often result in capital flight and reduced participation.
4. Impact of Monetary Policy on Trading
Monetary policy decisions—such as interest rate changes, liquidity measures, and inflation control—directly influence trading behavior. Lower interest rates generally push investors toward equities and risk assets, while higher rates may shift capital toward fixed-income instruments.
Central bank policies affect currency markets, bond yields, commodity prices, and equity valuations. Traders closely monitor policy statements and economic projections to anticipate market movements. Thus, monetary policy plays a crucial role in shaping trading strategies and asset allocation decisions.
5. Fiscal Policy and Market Development
Fiscal policies, including taxation, government spending, and subsidies, also significantly affect trading development. Changes in capital gains tax, securities transaction tax, or corporate tax rates can alter trading volumes and investment preferences.
Pro-growth fiscal policies often boost corporate earnings expectations, leading to bullish market sentiment. Conversely, restrictive fiscal measures may dampen market activity. Well-designed fiscal policies balance revenue generation with market competitiveness.
6. Regulatory Frameworks and Market Integrity
Strong regulatory institutions are vital for maintaining market integrity. Regulations covering market manipulation, algorithmic trading, derivatives, and high-frequency trading ensure that innovation does not compromise fairness.
As markets evolve with technology, policies must adapt to new trading instruments and platforms. Robust regulatory frameworks help manage risks associated with leverage, complex derivatives, and automated trading systems.
7. Encouraging Innovation and Technological Growth
Policy support is critical for encouraging innovation in trading infrastructure. Regulations that allow electronic trading platforms, fintech participation, and digital settlement systems enhance efficiency and reduce transaction costs.
At the same time, policies must address cybersecurity risks, data privacy, and operational resilience. A balanced policy approach fosters innovation while safeguarding market stability.
8. Role of Policies in Market Liquidity
Liquidity is the lifeblood of trading markets. Policies related to market-making, short-selling, and institutional participation influence liquidity levels. Allowing controlled short-selling, for example, improves price discovery and reduces bid-ask spreads.
Well-designed liquidity policies ensure smooth execution of trades, reduce volatility, and make markets more attractive to global investors.
9. Global Trade and Cross-Border Policies
In an interconnected world, trading development is influenced by international policies and agreements. Foreign investment regulations, capital flow controls, and trade agreements affect cross-border trading activity.
Harmonized global policies improve market access and integration, while protectionist measures can restrict capital flows and increase uncertainty. Traders must account for geopolitical and policy risks in their strategies.
10. Risk Management and Systemic Stability
Policies related to risk management play a crucial role in preventing systemic crises. Capital adequacy norms, stress testing, and exposure limits help financial institutions manage risks effectively.
These policies ensure that failures of individual participants do not escalate into broader market crises. Strong risk management frameworks protect the overall trading ecosystem and the real economy.
11. Development of Derivatives and Advanced Markets
The growth of derivatives markets depends heavily on regulatory clarity. Policies defining contract specifications, margin norms, and settlement mechanisms are essential for safe derivatives trading.
Well-regulated derivatives markets allow traders to hedge risks, improve price discovery, and manage volatility. Poorly regulated derivatives, however, can amplify risks and lead to financial instability.
12. Long-Term Economic Growth and Capital Formation
Trading markets play a vital role in capital formation and economic development. Policies that support efficient capital markets enable companies to raise funds for expansion, innovation, and job creation.
By aligning trading policies with broader economic goals, governments can ensure that financial markets contribute positively to national development rather than becoming purely speculative arenas.
13. Education, Awareness, and Policy Support
Policies promoting financial literacy and trader education are increasingly important. Educated traders make better decisions, reduce herd behavior, and contribute to market stability.
Regulatory bodies often support awareness programs, research initiatives, and training to improve market understanding. This strengthens the overall trading ecosystem.
Conclusion
Policy matters are central to trading development because they shape the environment in which markets operate. Effective policies ensure stability, fairness, transparency, and investor protection while encouraging innovation and growth. Monetary and fiscal policies influence market behavior, regulatory frameworks maintain integrity, and global policies affect cross-border participation.
In a rapidly evolving financial landscape, adaptive and well-balanced policies are essential for sustainable trading development. When policies align with economic objectives and market realities, they create resilient trading systems that support long-term growth, confidence, and prosperity.
Part 6 Learn Institutional Trading Risks in Option Trading
a) Time Decay
Buyers lose money as time passes.
b) Volatility Crush
After major events (earnings, budgets), volatility collapses, reducing option value.
c) Unlimited Risk for Option Sellers
Especially for naked call sellers.
d) Low Liquidity
Some strikes may have poor liquidity and wider spreads.
e) Emotional Trading
Fast movement can lead to panic or overtrading.
XAUUSD (Gold) Technical Outlook - 24/12/2025XAUUSD – Gold Technical Snapshot (Intraday)
Gold remains bullish across higher timeframes (Daily–Monthly). Price is trading near 4,492, close to the day’s high, with all major moving averages aligned upward. Momentum indicators support the uptrend, though overbought conditions suggest possible short-term pullbacks.
Key_Levels
Support: 4,480 / 4,465
Pivot: 4,495
Resistance: 4,520 → 4,550 → 4,575
Outlook & Strategy
Bias stays bullish above 4,480
Buy pullbacks near support or breakouts above 4,520
Below 4,465, expect a corrective move toward 4,440–4,410
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves risk—always manage your risk and do your own research.
Decoding Weekly Structure: Support, Resistance & Channel DynamicSummary -
This multi-window TradingView chart showcases a weekly time frame on the left, featuring a white counter line, a dotted hidden resistance line, and a monthly support/resistance zone highlighted in white on the right. Additionally, a pink parallel channel marks head and resistance zones, offering a visual guide to price structure without forecasting future movement. Each element helps identify historical areas where price has shown significant reactions.
Terms and Language explained -
Counter Line (White): A horizontal line used to mark a specific price level, often for tracking key reference points or psychological levels.
Hidden Resistance (Dotted Line): A resistance line that is not immediately obvious but is derived from less visible price action or volume analysis. It helps identify potential areas where price may struggle to move higher.
Monthly Support/Resistance Zone: A broader area on the chart where price has historically found support (demand) or resistance (supply) over the monthly time frame. These zones are often marked for their significance in longer-term analysis
Parallel Channel: A set of parallel lines drawn to connect consecutive highs and lows, forming a channel that helps visualize the current price trend and boundaries.
Disclaimer
The information presented in this chart is for educational purposes only. No part of this post constitutes financial advice, a recommendation, or a forecast of future price movement. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Price action understanding that will change the way you tradeI make educational content videos for swing trading . In this video I have used concepts like Trendlines, Counter trendlines, zones, Support and Resistance, Market fall, Targets and Exit plan for any trade setup and most importantly use of lines with multi time frame analysis .
Charts used are 3 months or older
$VELO IS ONE OF THE MOST MISPRICED TOKENS IN CRYPTONASDAQ:VELO IS ONE OF THE MOST MISPRICED TOKENS IN CRYPTO
$120M mcap.
BlackRock-backed stablecoin.
1M+ real users.
Backed by CP Group (7-Eleven Thailand) + Stellar.
Down 99.7% from ATH while building real PayFi rails in SE Asia’s $396B Cross-Border Market.
IEO: $0.05 → ATH: $2.07 (40x)
Now at $0.0067 🤯
High inflation? Yes.
High risk? Absolutely.
If RWA + PayFi runs and a Binance Main Listing Lands… This Won’t Stay at $120M.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research. Crypto is volatile & You Can Lose Everything.
Divergence Secrets What Are Options?
Options are financial contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset (usually a stock or index) at a fixed price (called the strike price) before or on a specific date (the expiry).
There are two types of options:
Call Option – Right to buy
Put Option – Right to sell
The seller (writer) of the option has the obligation to honor the contract.
Real-life Example
If you think a stock will go up, you buy a Call Option.
If you think it will go down, you buy a Put Option.
XAUUSD (H4) – Tuesday ForecastBroke the old ATH, trend continuation | Buy the pullback at 4442, sell premium at 4559
Strategy summary
Gold has broken the previous all-time high (ATH) and the bullish structure remains intact. Today my priority is still buying with the trend, but only on a clean pullback — no chasing. The secondary plan is a reaction sell at a premium Fibonacci zone if price extends too aggressively.
1) Technical view (based on your chart)
The breakout above the old ATH is a strong bullish signal: we have a clear higher high and price is building a new base.
The chart highlights a Buy VL / value area just below current price — a logical pullback zone to reload longs.
Above, there’s a 1.618 Fibonacci premium sell zone, where profit-taking often shows up.
Key point: The trend is bullish, but the higher we go, the more likely we see sharp wicks and quick pullbacks. Stay disciplined and trade the levels.
2) Trade plan for today (clear entry, SL, target)
Scenario A (priority): BUY the Asia pullback
✅ Buy: 4442
SL: 4435
Target: 4747 (your projected target)
Logic: This is a clean pullback into the session value area. If price holds here, continuation becomes the higher-probability path.
Scenario B: SELL the premium Fibonacci reaction
✅ Sell: 4559
SL: 4568
TP: scale out on the reaction (short-term profit-taking), or manage based on momentum after rejection
Logic: 4559 is a premium Fibonacci zone. If price spikes into it, a rejection move is very common — but only sell with reaction, not by chasing.
3) Macro context (why gold stays supported)
XAU/USD is building on yesterday’s strong rally (+2%) and is printing fresh record highs for a second day.
Price is pushing toward the 4,500 psychological level during Asia, supported by multiple safe-haven drivers.
Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent add uncertainty around the long-term reliability of Fed policy — and uncertainty typically supports gold.
4) Risk management (Liam rule)
Don’t chase after breakout. Only buy at 4442 as planned.
Risk per trade: max 1–2%.
If stopped out, wait for the next structure — no revenge trading.
What’s your bias today: buying the 4442 pullback, or waiting for a 4559 reaction sell?
ELECTHERM 1 Week Time Frame 📌 Current Price (approx as of Dec 23, 2025)
Around ₹927 intraday / ~₹850–₹930 range depending on data source and time.
📊 1‑Week Timeframe Levels (NSE – ELECTHERM)
🟢 Immediate Support Levels
These are the floors where price has tended to bounce within the past week:
1. ₹836–₹840 — strong short‑term support (recent close lows).
2. ₹824–₹830 — secondary support zone below recent trading range.
3. ₹800–₹807 — psychological support and mid‑term pivot cluster.
Break below ₹800 could signal deeper pullback toward longer‑term support near the 52‑week low area.
🔴 Key Resistance Levels
Levels where price may face selling pressure this week:
1. ₹864–₹870 — near short‑term resistance from recent daily highs.
2. ₹882–₹893 — next upper resistance zone (upper pivot levels).
3. ₹900–₹915+ — psychological resistance & intra‑week upper range zone. Based on price action trending above previous range highs.
If price sustains above ₹880–₹890, bullish sentiment is likely to strengthen.
📌 Weekly Pivot (Approx)
Based on technical pivots for short‑term moves:
Pivot ~ ₹853–₹855 — often acts as balance point this week.
Above this pivot → near‑term bullish;
Below this pivot → consolidation/bearish pressure.
This Multi time frame Trick will save you from FAKEOUTSIn this video I am showcasing a daily, weekly and monthly time frame combination - also sharing a trick which can save you a lot of money from those regular sized fakeouts .
Charts used are 3 months old in this video and video is purely educational based .
Weekly Analysis Nifty....Here is the weekly analysis of nifty.. please try to learn from the various topics discussed in it..
Please do follow me if you liked the idea💡...
Disclaimer ⚠️: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions ⚠️⚠️.
Practical Study On Supply and Demand Concept NSE:ICICIBANK
Most traders fail at Supply & Demand for one simple reason:
They draw zones…
but don’t understand context, intent, or execution.
Zones don’t make money.
Decisions do.
📘 Supply & Demand – Practical Application
All the charts are annotated in very much details no description is needed so study these charts in detail and that will be self-explanatory.
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Keep Learning,
Happy Trading.
Part 3 Learn Institutional Trading How Option Trading Works
When a trader buys a call option, they expect the price of the underlying asset to rise above the strike price before expiration. If the price rises significantly, the trader can either exercise the option or sell it in the market for a profit. Similarly, buying a put option reflects a bearish view, where the trader expects prices to fall.
Option sellers, on the other hand, earn income through the premium received. However, selling options involves higher risk, as losses can be substantial if the market moves sharply against the position.
Chart Patterns What Are Chart Patterns?
Chart patterns are recognizable formations created by price movements on a chart. They develop over time and help traders identify trends, reversals, or continuation of trends. Chart patterns are usually formed by support and resistance levels, trendlines, and consolidation phases.
Types of Chart Patterns
Chart patterns are broadly classified into:
Reversal Patterns
Continuation Patterns
Bilateral (Neutral) Patterns
XAUUSD H1 Main Trend for the Weekend
Gold failed to confirm a sustainable upward momentum after yesterday's price reaction, prioritizing a short-term adjustment scenario before reassessing the trend
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Strategy to sell based on reactions at large volume areas, suitable for the current short-term structure
Focus sell area: 4332 – 4342
Technical basis: these are areas concentrated with volume according to the Volume Profile, where price is likely to show distribution reactions after a weak recovery
Expected movement: price recovers to the large volume area for distribution, then continues the adjustment phase
Daily target:
Heading towards the 4275 area, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement area and underlying support
Position management:
Sell should only be held short-term. If the price surpasses and stabilizes above 4342, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell orders.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Monitor price reactions at deeper support areas to reassess trading opportunities
Strong support area: around 4275
Technical context: this is the convergence area between structural support and Fibonacci retracement, likely to show defensive buying force
Expected movement: if the price reacts well at this area, the market may enter a re-accumulation state
MAIN REASON
On H1, the previous upward phase failed to maintain a clear upward structure, indicating weakening buying force
Volume Profile helps identify the 4332 – 4342 areas as advantageous entry points for the sell reaction scenario
The 4275 area serves as a reasonable adjustment target in the context of a typically momentum-lacking weekend market
MACRO CONTEXT AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
While short-term fluctuations lean towards adjustment, major institutions still maintain a positive outlook for gold in the medium and long term. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices could reach $4,900/oz by the end of 2026, supported by strong buying demand from central banks and positive impacts from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle.
This suggests that short-term declines may be more of a technical adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.
XAUUSD (H1) – Friday Weekend
Lana prioritizes the adjustment phase towards the POC area, looking to Sell in the liquidity zone 💛
Quick Summary
Context: Friday, the market often tends to take profits and sweep liquidity before the week closes
Monitoring Frame: H1
Main Viewpoint: Prioritize a decrease during the day (adjustment phase)
Key Point to Note: 4308 has reacted multiple times, a sensitive point in the structure
Market Context
The weekend is usually a time when the cash flow is “lighter” and price behavior tends to lean towards profit-taking. Therefore, an adjustment phase to gain more liquidity is the scenario Lana prioritizes today.
From a medium-term perspective, some large institutions still maintain a positive view on gold. However, in intraday trading, Lana still prioritizes following the current price behavior and trading according to the liquidity zone.
Technical View H1
On H1, the price is fluctuating around the accumulation zone, and the POC/VAL area indicates this is a market zone that has been “back and forth” for quite a while. When the price returns to these areas, there is usually a clear reaction.
The 4308 area is noteworthy because the price has reacted multiple times, so this is a point that could determine whether the adjustment phase continues.
Today's Trading Scenario
Main Scenario – Sell at POC/VAL area (large liquidity)
Sell: 4335 – 4340
Lana prioritizes waiting for the price to rebound to this area to sell according to the adjustment phase. This is a large liquidity zone, suitable for finding a downward reaction during the day.
Alternative Scenario – Buy scalping at near support
Buy: 4284 – 4289
This Buy order is only for scalping when the price hits the support area and a bounce reaction appears. If the market continues to be weak, Lana will not hold the Buy for too long.
Session Notes
If the price continues to be rejected around resistance areas and cannot surpass the supply zone, the adjustment scenario will have an advantage.
For Friday, Lana prioritizes light trading, quick closing, avoiding holding positions too long over the weekend.
Lana's Notes 🌿
Each scenario is just a probability. Lana always sets a stop loss first, chooses the appropriate volume, and is ready to skip if the price does not reach the waiting area.
HINDUNILVR: Smart Money Accumulation Zone After CHoCH?📘 HINDUNILVR (HUL) — Technical Analysis | Structure Shift & Golden Retracement Setup
(Timeframe: Daily)
HINDUNILVR is currently trading around ₹2,265 after a prolonged corrective phase.
The chart reflects a Change of Character (CHoCH) followed by a controlled retracement into a high-probability demand zone, where the next directional move is likely to emerge.
🔍 Market Structure & Price Action
The stock previously witnessed a strong bullish extension, reaching the 113%–128% Fibonacci extension zone, indicating an overextended move.
Post extension, price showed loss of bullish momentum, leading to a CHoCH — a clear signal of shifting market control.
CHoCH highlights early trend transition and often leads to range-bound or corrective price action, rather than an immediate trend reversal.
📌 CHoCH helps traders prepare for structural transitions before confirmation from higher highs.
📐 Fibonacci & Wave Context
The decline from point A to B appears corrective, not impulsive.
Price has now entered the Golden Retracement Zone (50%–78%) of Wave A.
This zone is typically where Wave B or Wave 2 attempts to develop.
Institutional participants often accumulate positions here due to favorable risk–reward.
📌 Failure to hold this zone often results in a deeper correction or trend reversal.
🎯 Key Levels from the Chart
Major Demand Zone: ₹2,230 – ₹2,200
Invalidation Level: Day close below ₹2,200
First Target: ~₹2,630 (≈ 78% retracement of Wave AB)
Second Target: ₹2,826 – ₹2,888
🧭 Trading Strategy (Swing / Positional)
Look for long opportunities only inside the ₹2,230–₹2,200 zone.
Prefer confirmation signals such as:
– Bullish rejection wicks
– Higher-low formation
– Minor CHoCH on lower timeframes
Avoid aggressive entries without confirmation.
🛑 Risk Management
Strict stop loss: Day close below ₹2,200
A close below this level indicates weak demand and opens the risk of extended downside correction.
Partial profit booking recommended near Target 1.
Trail stop aggressively if price sustains above ₹2,630.
📚 Educational Notes
Golden Retracement (50%–78%) is where institutions seek value-based entries.
CHoCH ≠ Trend Reversal — it signals momentum loss, not instant bearishness.
Confirmation always comes from structure + demand holding, not prediction.
🔮 Probable Scenarios
Bullish Case:
Holding above ₹2,200 → Base formation → Gradual recovery toward ₹2,630 → ₹2,826–2,888.
Bearish Case:
Day close below ₹2,200 → Demand failure → Deeper corrective phase.
📌 Conclusion
HINDUNILVR is positioned at a critical inflection zone.
Risk is clearly defined, while upside potential remains asymmetric.
This is a wait-for-confirmation accumulation setup, not a chase trade.
⚠ DISCLAIMER
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
Always use your own analysis and risk management.






















