Trend
WTIOCUSD(Crude) make or break levelCrude oil making a bearish pattern and still showing the sign of bullishness. Fight between Bull and Bears for the trend to continue. Which way will It go?
Crude respects the levels we analyzed In early posts, shows a good move over the period. The up-trend move after the breakout of the price mark of $87.894, was slowed down after the price tried to breach the overhead resistances of $90 that we suspected to be a major resistance zone. But moreover, there was a diversion which you can see in the picture created on 27/10/22 ( Diversion was found with the help of an indicator known as RSI).
When we see in the 1H chart, the price is showing bullish movement by making pin bars which can mean buyers are getting active around the $87.89 Price mark. But the price will be concerned bullish only when the price sustains above the $90 zone then we can say the view of the counter is bullish and look for buy on dips.
But on another side of the coin, you can see a bearish Head And Shoulder pattern and if the pattern is triggered then I believe Crude can be seen trading in the $83-$84 range shortly, and the view can be changed to sell on really. Until then you need to decide the strategy technics for trading this counter this is my view on the counter until I see the price breaching my analyzed levels
Vedanta for a fall.Vedanta for a fall.
In the first long term wave, we are in the second correction of the wave two and if you see the wave, it is in a third wave fall of the 3 sub waves which could be as deep as .618 fib levels as per me.
Also, it is now at a triangle resistance at the top of the trend line if you see the dark white line and the volumes have weakened significantly with no buying momentum. The fundamentals are bad with a 61 percent los QoQ. Plus, commodities and interest rates have an inverse relationship because higher interests lead to increased cost of holding and weakens demand. Now with the potential rate hikes on cards, my view of Vedanta is a fall with a target of 253.
If we open below the 274 support line, it is a further confirmation. For safety, it can be taken when the triangle breaks down.
The metal index also seems to be in the second corrective wave and with rate hikes, a correction seems on the way.
GAIL Potential TrendGAIL seems to have done a Daily breakout after a long downtrend.
The weekly and monthly chart also seem promising on pivotal support levels
But the level is crucial as still, we are in a zone of uncertainty with respect to nifty.
Either ways, with crude and natural gas bullish, GAIL seems long.
But, being at a crucial support, market collapse could lead to a breakdown as well. Lets see how it goes.
EURUSD braces for further upside but 0.9900 tests bullsEURUSD jostles with a four-month-old resistance line, as well as the 50-DMA, respectively around 0.9870 and 0.9900, as it lures buyers near a fortnight top. Given the firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals, the major currency pair is likely to refresh the monthly top, currently around the parity level. In doing so, September’s peak surrounding 1.0200 will be crucial to confirm the bullish trend. Following that, a run-up towards the five-week-old horizontal resistance area near 1.0360 can’t be ruled out.
Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s failure to provide a successful break above 0.9900 could drag it to the monthly support line, close to 0.9720 by the press time. Even so, the bears may want to wait for a clear break of the four-week-long support zone around 0.9660 to retake control. In that case, the yearly low of 0.9535 will gain the market’s attention. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.9535, the 0.9000 psychological magnet should lure the sellers.
Overall, EURUSD is up for regaining the bull’s confidence but a clear break of 0.990 is necessary.
FALLING TREND LINE
Education
Falling trend line:
Rising trend line is the type of trend line which typically helps trader in identifying the exact bearish momentum (downward trend).
The rising trend line or descending trend line, be connected from highest price traded within the time range, and connect to the lower prices of the asset or security.
Traders may prepare for selling after retest of the falling trend line and stop above the trend line.
It helps minimizing risk and maximizing rewards when used appropriately.
RISING TREND - EXPLAINED
Education
Rising trend line:
Rising trend line is the type of trend line which helps a trader to identify the bullish moment or bullish range (Upward Trend).
The rising trend line or ascending trend line should be connected from the last lower of the asset value to the last highest value or price of an asset.
The rising trend line should have multiple prices touched to be considered as valid, (at least 2 price point touches).
Traders may anticipate trading pullback where confirmation come, they can use additional indicators to have clear understanding of right entry point and exit points.
Gold portrays bullish triangle but $1,643 is the key hurdleGold braces for the second weekly loss but the bears appear hesitant around the yearly low. On the top of that, a bullish triangle formation and nearly oversold RSI suggest that the metal may witness a bounce. Hence, a convergence of the monthly horizontal resistance and the three-week-old descending trend line, forming part of the bullish triangle, around $1,643, gain major attention. Should the metal buyers manage to cross the resistance confluence, an upswing to the 200-SMA level of $1,678 becomes imminent on the way to the theoretical target surrounding the monthly high near $1,700.
Alternatively, pullback moves need to defy the triangle formation by breaking the $1,620 support. Even so, the yearly bottom of $1,614-15 could test the bears before directing them to the $1,600 threshold. Following that, April 2020 low and August 2019 top, respectively near $1,572 and $1,557, could entertain the sellers. In a case where the gold price remains weak past $1,557 the year 2020 low of $1,451 will be in focus.
Overall, gold sellers are running out of steam but the buyers need a clear break of $1,643 for even a small rebound.
US30 sell to buy idea in higher timeframe market is currently bearish forming LH and LL. market after hitting a 1d imbalance form CHofCH 1h 4h timeframe telling market could possibly reverse from downtrend to uptrend in lower timeframe to fill the imbalances which was left open. market came back and fill the imbalance below and show a large push up showing buyers are in control there also market corm a change or character overall i am looking for buy from the imbalance left open in 30m timeframe.
also have a sell idea from a 4h supply above the market with lower timeframe( 15/ 30m) confirmation. if market break the above swing high them it is telling us market is in uptrend still short idea is valid from that demand.
NIFTY OUTLOOKThis is a 180 Min TF NIFTY chart. By the end of this post we would try to understand the short term trend and the trade setup for the next week. An update on daily basis will be given in the update idea section.
- TIME CYCLE:
If we study the time cycle starting at 17 June 2022. I have adjusted the cycles at certain TF for better adjustment. We can observe the low made at point 1 and the breakout lead to a good up move. And vice a versa was seen at point 2 and 3. Accordingly the low before a good bounce is expected to be made at Point 4 which is nearly around 13 or 14 th Oct.
TRENDLINES:
Even the trendline starting at 13th Sep 2022 (just before point 3 ) is currently acting as a resistance.
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT:
17081 will act as the first support incase of any gap down as currently indicated by SGX. The next support level would be 16900 if 17801 is taken out.
Any buying signal if generated at these level near the time cycle(13 or 14 th Oct) should not be ignored given that they are confirmed by price action. And if such thing happen, I will update the same in this post.
It's been a while I have updated my page with regular NIFTY OUTLOOK posts due to some reasons. However in the last NIFTY OUTLOOK, I mentioned the target of 18342. And even after initiating a bear rally , NIFTY bounced and achieved the target dot to dot before falling heavily.
CHART & ANALYSIS
ADARSH DEY
EURUSD braces for fresh yearly low ahead of key events/dataEURUSD bears take a rest around the two-week-old horizontal support area while waiting for this week’s key catalysts, namely FOMC Meeting Minutes and US CPI. That said, sluggish RSI and bearish MACD signals join the quote’s sustained trading below the 50-SMA to keep sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the 0.9665-50 region appears necessary for the fresh leg down. Following that, the latest multi-year low, marked in September around 0.9535, will gain the attention ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of August-October moves, close to 0.9485. In a case where the pair remains weak past 0.9485, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the September 2001 high near 0.9330 can’t be ruled out.
Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the 50-SMA level of 0.9800 for the start. Following that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August-September downside and the monthly high, respectively around 0.9950 and the 1.0000 psychological magnet should lure the EURUSD buyers. If the quote remains firmer past 1.0000, a two-month-old downward sloping resistance line, around 1.0025 by the press time appears the last defense of the bears.
To sum up, EURUSD appears bearish ahead of this week’s important data/events.
Rising channel rangeArvind fashion running in a rising regression channel
price trading running above 200 DMA
stock getting volumes
RSI taken support over 50 two time and running above and rising
if stock again touches down side trend line then it will be good level for buying
if down side trend line breaks down then can be more down side
if stock breakout and sustain above trend line then more up side levels will be see
Bulls are gonna Rock🔥 in upcoming weeks (Weekly view on Nifty .NSE:NIFTY1! we are seeing a hammer candle after a DRC breakout and plus bullish engulfing after that.
It's a clear sign that bulls are there. Everything else is noise just to throw out the retail.
The only point one can be pure bearish is after we give weekly closing below hammer low.