what if a prolonged bear market ?as not in anywhere in history?As this is the peculiar case ,assuming that the valuations have been high and mad tariff war may extend , there is a meagre chance of prolonged bear market .
Mass liquidity is the reason behind euphoria market rally from 17000 to 26000 in nifty.
A worst case scenario, may take the bear market to sustain to another 5 year, w.r.t to tariff war and the consequential geopolitical tensions.
Believe this should not happen.
Thanks
Trend Analysis
#XAUUSD/H1 Short term rally. Find a good buy point.XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy March 5, 2025:
Yesterday's trading session was in line with our assessment when the gold price recovered in the Asia - Europe session; in the US session, the gold price fell sharply when it met resistance at 2925 - 2930.
In today's trading session, we continue to buy in Asia - Europe; sell in the US session. The 2925 - 2930 area is currently quite weak when meeting again for the 3rd time.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 2901 - 2903
SL 2898
TP 2906 - 2915 - 2930 - 2940.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2883 - 2885
SL 2880
TP 2888 - 2895 - 2915 - 2940.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 2937 - 2939
SL 2942
TP 2934 - 2925 - 2915 - 2900.
Wish you a safe and successful trading day.🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰
Bank nifty trades and targets for - 5/3/25Hello Everyone. The market was in a very tight range the previous day. Let the resistance or support range break with 15-minute candle before going for any trades. If it opens gap up then we need to see the resistance level to break before looking for CE trades. If it opens gap down then look for PE trades after support zone is broken. Let the market settle in first 15 to 30 minutes then look for directional trades. Book profits every 100 points as we are getting very few trending moves.
Ethereum bought at 2150 Booked at 2520 again holding buy 2280How to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
A technical analysis of the Nifty 50 chartTrend Analysis: The chart appears to show a cup-and-handle pattern; the price is currently around the handle, potentially indicating an accumulation phase before a breakout.
Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
22,265.50: A significant resistance level where price could encounter selling pressure.
22,171.60 & 22,200.00: Also notable resistance points where price has previously stalled.
Support Levels:
22,080.30: A key support level, where price may find buying interest.
22,039.55: Another support area that could prevent further decline.
Trading Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
Entry Point: Consider entering long positions if the price breaks above resistance at 22,200.00 with strong volume.
Target Price: Aim for 22,265.50.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss around 22,080 to manage risk.
Bearish Scenario:
Entry Point: If the price breaks below 22,080.30, consider shorting.
Target Price: Look for a target around 21,880.30 or lower if momentum continues.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss above 22,100 to minimize potential losses.
Indicators & Signals
If available, consider adding volume analysis to confirm breakouts or reversals.
Look for additional confirmation from oscillators (e.g., RSI or MACD) to gauge overbought/oversold conditions.
Summary
Monitor price action around key support and resistance levels, watching for breakout or breakdown signals. Ensure to manage risk with appropriate stop-loss orders, and adjust your strategy based on market dynamics.
Silver buy given above 31 45 , 32$ Target hit buy on dipHow to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Gold as said earlier if break 84650 then upmove come 86320 hitHow to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Gold as said earlier if break 2862 then upmove possible 2927 hitHow to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Nifty Trading Strategy for 05th March 2025📉 Nifty Trade Setup 📈
💰 Entry Strategy:
✅ Buy Setup (Long Position) 📊
🔼 Entry Condition:
Enter a buy trade only if a 1-hour candle closes above 22,165.
Place the buy order above the high of that 1-hour candle for confirmation.
🎯 Target Levels:
1️⃣ First Target (T1): 22,194
2️⃣ Second Target (T2): 22,226
3️⃣ Third Target (T3): 22,277
🛑 Stop-Loss:
Below the low of the signal candle (the 1-hour candle that closes above 22,165).
Alternatively, use a risk-based stop-loss to maintain a 1:2 or 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.
📊 Additional Confirmation (Optional):
✔️ Check for strong bullish volume to confirm the breakout.
✔️ Ensure RSI is above 55 to confirm bullish momentum.
✔️ Confluence with moving averages (50 EMA or 200 EMA) can strengthen the setup.
❌ Sell Setup (Short Position) 📊
🔽 Entry Condition:
Enter a sell trade only if a 15-minute candle closes below 21,964.
Place the sell order below the low of that 15-minute candle for confirmation.
🎯 Target Levels:
1️⃣ First Target (T1): 21,900
2️⃣ Second Target (T2): 21,849
3️⃣ Third Target (T3): 21,799
🛑 Stop-Loss:
Above the high of the signal candle (the 15-minute candle that closes below 21,964).
Alternatively, use a dynamic stop-loss based on ATR or a volatility-based method.
📊 Additional Confirmation (Optional):
✔️ Ensure bearish volume increases on the breakdown.
✔️ RSI breaking below 45 or nearing 40 strengthens the sell signal.
✔️ Avoid taking shorts if a major support zone is nearby.
⚠️ Risk Management & Disclaimer
📢 Important Notes:
🔹 Never risk more than 1-2% of your capital per trade.
🔹 Use a trailing stop-loss to lock in profits.
🔹 Avoid trading during high-impact news events for Nifty (like RBI announcements or major global data releases).
🔹 Maintain a proper risk-to-reward ratio (minimum 1:2 or 1:3) for effective capital management.
⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not SEBI registered, and this trade setup is for educational purposes only. This is not financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own analysis and apply proper risk management before taking any trades. Trading in financial markets involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Nifty create manipulation areaMarket Trend
1-Hour Chart: The short-term trend is bearish as the price has been making lower highs and lower lows.
1-Week Chart: The broader trend is bearish after a strong uptrend. The price is currently in a correction phase, showing a downward movement.
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Levels:
22,000 – Psychological and technical support.
21,800-21,700 – Next major demand zone, where buyers might step in.
Resistance Levels:
22,400-22,500 – Previous support turned into resistance.
22,800-22,900 – Key resistance where selling pressure might increase.
Buying Area of Interest
21,800-21,700 Zone – Strong demand zone with potential reversal signals. If price stabilizes here with bullish confirmation (e.g., reversal candlestick patterns, increase in CVD, or divergence in RSI), it could be a buying opportunity.
Selling Area of Interest
22,400-22,500 Zone – If the price bounces up but struggles to break this resistance, it could be a shorting opportunity.
22,800-22,900 Zone – Stronger resistance area; if price reaches here and fails to break, a pullback is likely.
Trading Strategy
Bullish View: Wait for confirmation around 21,700-21,800 before entering long positions. Look for volume increase and bullish divergence in indicators like RSI and CVD.
Bearish View: If price rallies towards 22,400-22,500 or 22,800-22,900 and faces resistance, a short position can be considered.
Nifty trades and targets for - 5/3/25Hello Everyone. The market was in a bullish mode today. Every retail trader will think the market is going up so most of them might have carry forward CE trades so we can see a reversal candle which may hit 15 minute SL first and then it may go upside.
If the market opens flat then we can see continuation of trend. If it opens gap up then we need to see the resistance level to break before looking for CE trades. If it opens gap down then look for PE trades after support zone is broken. Let the market settle in first 15 to 30 minutes then look for directional trades. Book profits every 40 points as we are getting very few trending moves.
Gold 3.4 analysis, (strong bullish rebound)
From the current gold trend, the market sentiment is obviously biased towards bulls, especially driven by risk aversion in the afternoon, the gold price broke through the key resistance level of 2897 and further attacked above 2903. Although the short position at the 2903 line was lost, the gold bulls did not stop, but continued to exert force to push the price above the recent high, showing strong bullish momentum.
Technical analysis:
Hourly chart:
The moving average system began to turn upward, indicating that the bulls dominated in the short term.
The gold price continued to refresh the rebound high, showing the strong offensive of the bulls.
Short-term support focuses on the 2897-2900 area. If the price falls back to this area and stabilizes, the bulls are expected to continue to exert force.
4-hour chart:
The upper short-term resistance is at the 2922-2925 line. If the price breaks through this area, the bulls are expected to continue further.
The lower low support focuses on the vicinity of 2897-2900, and the overall operation idea is still mainly low-long.
For the middle position, it is recommended to watch more and do less, avoid chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Operation strategy:
Long strategy:
Entry point: Go long when gold falls back to 2897-2900. If the price further falls back to 2888-2890, you can cover long positions.
Stop loss: 2883, to prevent the price from accidentally breaking through the key support.
Target: 2920-2923. If it breaks through this area, you can continue to hold and look for higher targets.
Short strategy:
Entry point: Go short when gold is under pressure at 2922-2925. This area is a short-term resistance level. If the price fails to break through, you can consider a light position to try shorting.
Stop loss: 2936, to prevent short positions from being trapped after the price breaks through.
Target: 2900-2905 area. If the price breaks through this area, you can continue to hold and look for lower targets.
Key points:
Upper resistance: 2922-2925
Lower support: 2897-2900, 2888-2890
Summary:
The current gold market sentiment is biased towards bulls, especially driven by risk aversion, the price broke through the key resistance level and continued to rise. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on low-long, pay attention to the support of the 2897-2900 area, and consider going long if the price falls back and stabilizes. At the same time, the upper 2922-2925 area is a short-term resistance level. If the price fails to break through, consider a light position to try shorting. In the middle position, it is recommended to watch more and do less, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
$BTC 93K OHS - Overhead Supply zoneOverhead supply zone refers to a large volume of an asset, like a cryptocurrency or stock, held by investors who bought it at a higher price than its current value and are waiting to sell once the price rises to their break-even point or higher.
This creates a "ceiling" of selling pressure at specific price levels, making it harder for the price to break through those zones. At the same time, traders and investors tend to re-test those zones because:
1. Profit-Taking and Break-Even Pressure:
Holders who bought at or above the OHS level (e.g., $93K for #Bitcoin) may sell when the price nears it again, reinforcing #resistance as supply floods in.
2. Market Memory:
Chart #patterns and historical price action draw attention from traders, who anticipate resistance and place sell orders, causing the level to be tested repeatedly.
3. Breakout Attempts:
If demand builds, buyers push the price toward #OHS to test if it can break through. Failed attempts solidify the resistance; successful breaks can turn it into support (a "flip zone").
4. Volume Confirmation:
Each re-test often comes with higher trading volume, as the market gauges whether buying momentum can overcome the selling pressure.
5. External Catalysts or FOMO-Driven Momentum:
It takes a significant external event—like positive regulatory news, a major adoption announcement, or a broader crypto bull run—can spark intense buying pressure. This surge can trigger fear of missing out (FOMO) among traders, driving volume and momentum strong enough to overwhelm the selling pressure from overhead supply.
$LTC $70 aimFailure to break resistance at $129 may cause LTC to slide on bearish market sentiment driven by macroeconomic factors if support levels (e.g. around $80-$100) fail.
LTC could see $67, a previous low seen in past cycles, while resistance at $129 holds firm due to profit taking or whale activity capping upside moves.
#XAUUSD/H1 Gold recovers, selling opportunity awaits for tradersXAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy March 4, 2025:
The first trading session of the week continues to follow our strategy, the price recovers to the GAP and reacts at the resistance zones H1, H4. Currently, the gold price is recovering after the decline last week.
However, we still prioritize the selling strategy at the resistance zones as before.
Today's trading trend: SELL.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: SELL XAUUSD zone 2909 - 2911
SL 2914
TP 2906 - 2900 - 2890 - 2870.
Plan 2: SELL XAUUSD zone 2927 - 2929
SL 2932
TP 2924 - 2915 - 2900 - 2870.
Plan 3: BUY XAUUSD zone 2868 - 2870
SL 2865
TP 2873 -2880 - 2890 - 2900. (small volume, valid for Asia - Europe session).
Wish you a safe and successful trading day🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰
#KRNFundamentals:
* ROCE - 42.01%, ROE - 41.9%. Debt to Equity - 0.11
* EPS / Revenue - has been steadily increasing
* FIIs - Reduced stake
* Mutual Funds / DIIs - Reduced stake
* Promoter - Reduced stake however holding strong
* Retail holders have increased
Technicals:
* Price is forming a tight action and emerging from a cup formation
* Volumes had declined while consolidating and with up move are now showing signs of increase
* RVOL and ADR is great and spiking
* Relative strength is strong / Momentum indicates steady maintenance / ADR is 9.7% and indicating up move
* Low risk entry
* Weekly chart shows clear signs of consolidation
Going by the holding patterns, this stock appears a little shaky. However, the fundamentals appear good.
I would prefer this to be an extend positional play and I will start off by adding some small quantity.
I am expecting some drop followed by up move. I would like to see some institutional addition / interest and I will add more.
Note - Entry / SL / Target / Position size - Please figure out on your own based on risk appetite
Disclaimer - Your money requires your due diligence! I merely analyze and bring out probabilities. All the best.
#SHAILYFundamentals:
* ROCE - 14.1%, ROE - 13.3%. Debt to Equity - 0.36
* EPS / Revenue - has been steadily increasing
* FIIs - Improving their holding this quarter
* Retail holding levels have gone down which is good
* Promoter holding has remained steady mostly
* Domestic instituitions have mostly maintained their stake
Technicals:
* Price is forming a tight action
* Second cup bouncing off of 100 DMA
* Volumes had declined while consolidating and with up move are now showing signs of increase
* RVOL and ADR is great and spiking
* Relative strength is strong / Momentum indicates steady maintenance / ADR is 7.2% and indicating up move
* Low risk entry
* Weekly chart shows clear signs of consolidation and 10 WEMA is now trying to go up again
The stock is not that fundamentally sound compared to its peers. However, it is presently giving a very tight entry opportunity.
In this market of gloom, that is the only sector which is trying to shine.
Note - Entry / SL / Target / Position size - Please figure out on your own based on risk appetite
Disclaimer - Your money requires your due diligence! I merely analyze and bring out probabilities. All the best.
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 04th March 2025NSE:NIFTY
Index closed near 22120 level and Maximum Call and Put Writing near CMP as below in current weekly contract:
Call Writing
22500 Strike – 115.17 Lakh 22400 Strike – 84.63 Lakh
22600 Strike – 80.82 Lakh
Put Writing
22000 Strike – 72.00 Lakh
21900 Strike – 70.35 Lakh
21500 Strike – 68.07 Lakh
Index may reach 22250 - 22300 range, if crosses and sustains above 22200 level. Further, Index may reach 22400 - 22450 range, if sustain above 22350 level.
Index has immediate support near 22000 – 21950 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 21800 – 21750 range.
Volatility expected due to imposition of import tariff by US on Canada Mexico and China with effect from 4th March 2025.