XAUUSD – Waiting for Trend Confirmation Around the 4,160–4,170..XAUUSD – Waiting for Trend Confirmation Around the 4,160–4,170 Zone
At the moment, gold has not shown a clearly defined medium-term trend. Price is moving around an important resistance zone, so instead of predicting direction early, I prefer waiting for price reaction at key levels before taking action.
The main focus today is the 4,160–4,170 area – where the market will decide whether to continue the uptrend or start a deeper correction.
🎯 Scenario 1 – SELL at 4,162–4,165 (Priority if No Clear Breakout)
Sell: 4.162 – 4.165
SL: 4.173
TP: 4.140 – 4.122 – 4.110 – 4.100
The 4.162–4.165 zone on H1 is a strong resistance area combining Fibonacci confluence, previous supply, and proximity to the short-term rising trendline.
If price taps this zone and shows weakness (upper-wick rejection, reversal candle, low volume confirmation), I prefer taking a short-term sell toward 4.140, with deeper targets at the liquidity cluster around 4.110–4.100.
Risk for this scenario is capped at 1–2% per trade. Do NOT hold the position if price closes above 4.173.
⭐ Scenario 2 – BUY on Break Above 4,170 (Trend Continuation Confirmation)
Buy: 4.171 – 4.173 (only after a clean breakout)
SL: 4.163
TP: 4.188 – 4.200 – 4.215
If price breaks decisively above 4.170 and sustains above it, that confirms buyers are still in control.
In this case, I switch my bias to buying the breakout, targeting the next resistance zones around 4.200–4.215, and possibly higher if momentum remains strong.
Note: Only buy if the breakout is genuine — strong candle body closing above 4.170, not a stop-hunt wick that pulls back immediately.
1. Fundamental Outlook
The DXY continues slipping below 99.50, now near 99.45, showing sustained weakness as markets increase expectations for a December Fed rate cut.
Easier monetary conditions generally support gold because the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced.
However, U.S. initial jobless claims have dropped to the lowest level since April, showing the labour market is still resilient.
This creates a mixed environment: rate-cut expectations support gold, but strong economic data may cause sudden volatility around news releases.
Overall, fundamentals lean slightly bullish for gold, but not strongly enough to ignore potential technical pullbacks.
2. Technical Structure
On the H1 chart, after a strong rally, gold is now consolidating right below the 4.160–4.170 resistance.
The 4.162–4.165 region is a confluence zone:
• horizontal resistance
• previous supply
• area where strong selling pressure appeared earlier
The 4.140 level is the “correction confirmation level” — if price breaks and closes below it, the market will likely aim for the major liquidity area around 4.110–4.100, where many Buy-side stop losses are clustered.
The current structure allows for both long and short setups, but each scenario requires clear price confirmation at the 4.160–4.170 zone.
3. Market Sentiment & Action Plan
Both buyers and sellers are watching the same price zone — 4.160–4.170.
This makes it a high-liquidity area where stops for both sides may get swept before the market shows its real direction.
If price rejects strongly from this zone, it could be a sign of late buyers being flushed out.
If buyers hold price above 4.170, trapped short positions may fuel a short squeeze toward higher resistance zones.
My plan: I do not enter mid-range. I wait for clear signals:
• Sell at 4.162–4.165 if reversal confirmation appears.
• Buy at 4.171–4.173 after a confirmed breakout and hold above the zone.
• Always use a hard stop-loss. No widening stops if price goes against the trade.
If price breaks both zones without giving clear signals, I stay out and wait for a new structure instead of forcing a prediction.
I always read feedback to improve how I share these analyses in future posts.
