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Trend Analysis

$SUI JUST ENTERED ITS DO-OR-DIE ZONE CRYPTOCAP:SUI JUST ENTERED ITS DO-OR-DIE ZONE AND THE WEEKLY CHART IS SCREAMING A REVERSAL SETUP Everyone is panicking at the dump… But nobody is seeing what actually happened on the HTF: 🔹 Massive Liquidity Grab Completed — identical to the 2024 bottom pattern. 🔹 Price nuked directly into FVG + Bullish Order Block. 🔹 Strong rejection wick = smart money accumulation confirmed. 🔹 Macro trendline STILL intact. Structure STILL bullish. But let’s be Honest: 👉 Market condition is extremely worst right now. 👉 All altcoins dumped hard. 👉 CRYPTOCAP:SUI is –75% down from its Jan 2025 ATH… 10 months of pure bleeding. Still, the chart is loading something big. Here’s my IMO approach: 🔹 Accumulation Zone 1: $1.35 – $1.15 🔹 Accumulation Zone 2: $0.90 – $0.75 ⭐ Don’t try to buy once. ⭐ No one knows the exact dip. ⭐ Smart way = accumulate slowly inside these zones. Strong bounce potential sits exactly from the FVG → Bullish OB confluence. If SUI breaks $4.8 resistance? Targets: $5 → $10 → $20 IMO one day CRYPTOCAP:SUI will hit $20 easily. But of course, Not financial advice. DYOR before investing.
Long
by CryptoPatel
Bitcoin AI Tool data showing oversold start buying for long termParameters Data Asset Name : Price 🟥 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) : 84,528.42 Price Movement 🟥 Downmove will continue to 82,700, 81,000 if break 81,000 then breakdown Until 86,000 not break if break then 87,500, 89,000 possible. Reason 🟥 Fading Rate Cut Hopes & Risk-off Sentiment: US Fed ki hawkish commentary aur tech stocks ki selling se risk assets se funds nikal rahe hain. Confidence 🟥 Bearish 11/30 Bullish , Avoid , Bearish (36.67% score Below 40% hai, isliye Red/Bearish.) Probability 🟥 65% Downside/Consolidation: Technical indicators aur fundamental sentiment strongly negative hain. R:R 🟨 Neutral: Current low level par, aggressive short entry ka R:R unfavorable ho sakta hai, par long side ka risk high hai. FNO Data 🟥 High Liquidations: Recent crash mein $19 Billion ke liquidations hue hain, jo sentiment ko fragile bana rahe hain. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Support Zone: $82,000 - $81,000 (Recent Lows) 🟥 Resistance Zone: $86,000 - $87,500 (Previous Close / 14-Day RSI at 30% area) Max Pain 🟨 N/A (No specific Max Pain data found) DEMA Levels 🟥 20 DEMA: $88,757.25 50 DEMA: $88,626.7 100 DEMA: N/A 200 DEMA: N/A 250 DEMA: N/A (Price sabhi major short-term MAs ke neeche hai, Strong Sell signal.) Supports 🟥 S1: $82,709 S2: $82,027 S3: N/A Resistances 🟥 R1: $87,479 R2: $88,757 R3: $90,623 ADX/RSI/DMI 🟥 RSI(14): 45.123 (Neutral, Bearish ki taraf) MACD: -1557.800 (Sell) ADX: 32.216 (Strong Trend, Selling side) Market Depth 🟥 Sell-biased (Heavy selling pressure at upper levels) Volatility 🟩 High (ATR(14) $1760.4453. High Volatility dikhata hai.) Source Ledger 🟩 Coinbase / Binance / Investing.com (Verified sources used) OI 🟥 High OI / Decreasing: High open interest ab liquidations ke through kam ho raha hai. PCR 🟨 N/A (No explicit PCR data available) VWAP 🟥 Sell (Price VWAP ke neeche trade kar raha hai) Turnover 🟥 High (Selling) (Volume high on days with falling prices.) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A IV/RV 🟩 IV High: Implied Volatility high hai. Options Skew 🟥 Bearish Skew (Put options ki demand zyada hai.) Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Advanced Greeks data not available) Block Trades 🟨 N/A (No immediate Block Trades reported) COT Positioning 🟥 Bearish (Sentiment deteriorating sharply.) Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟥 High Correlation to Risk-Off: Tech stocks aur risk-off sentiment se negative correlation. ETF Rotation 🟥 Negative Flow (Spot Bitcoin ETFs mein selling dekhi gayi.) Sentiment Index 🟥 Extreme Fear/Sell OFI 🟨 N/A (Order Flow Imbalance data not explicitly available) Delta 🟨 N/A (Options Delta data not explicitly available) VWAP Bands 🟥 Price below VWAP (Bearish indication) Rotation Metrics 🟨 N/A
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Gold at a Crossroads: Up or Down?If we zoom in and carefully observe how the GOLD price is moving, it becomes immediately clear: The market has just shown a very strong upward impulse, but now something interesting is happening. The price is tightening and forming a small, narrow triangle, which indicates that the market is accumulating energy. In these situations, there are usually two possible directions, but given the clearly bullish context, I feel that a breakout to the upside is much more likely. What do you think? Do you agree with me? Leave your thoughts in the comments. And trust me, being part of the TradingView community will help you improve every day as a trader. Of course, this is not financial advice, just my personal view on the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by LauraCharts
Dixon Technologies: Watching a Key Reversal Zone AheadDisclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions. Dixon’s decline is developing as a running flat within Wave 2. Wave A and B are already in place, with Wave B stretching above the Wave A origin, which is typical behaviour when the larger trend is still strong. The final leg, Wave C, is still unfolding. Inside Wave C, waves (i) through (iv) look complete, and the market appears to be working on wave (v). Momentum has been weakening throughout the drop, which often leads to an ending diagonal in the final wave of a running flat. The structure so far supports that possibility. The 0.618 retracement near 14,061 is the critical zone for this setup. This level aligns with typical Wave 2 depth and sits right where wave (v) of C can complete. RSI has not yet shown bullish divergence, so a marginal lower low in price, paired with a higher low in RSI, would be the ideal confirmation signal. If price forms the expected small ending diagonal into the 0.618 level and momentum improves, this would complete the running flat and set the stage for the next bullish sequence. Summary Wave 2 forming as a running flat. Wave C still in progress; wave (v) pending. Weak momentum favours an ending diagonal finish. Key reversal zone: 0.618 retracement near 14,061. Watching for bullish RSI divergence before confirmation.
NSE:DIXONLong
by WaveXplorer
6
Nifty AI Tool report showing upmove will continue next week Parameters Data Asset Name : Price 🟥 Nifty Futures (Nov) : 26,074.00 Price Movement 🟩 Upmove will continue to 26,195, 26,270 if break 26,270 then breakout Until 26,000 not break if break then 25,950, 25,850 possible. Reason 🟩 Strong DII Buying & Put Writing: Strong domestic support aur derivative data mein high Put OI major downside ko limit kar raha hai. 🟥 FII Selling & Global Cues: FIIs ki cash segment mein selling aur mixed global signals upside ko rokte hain. Confidence 🟩 Bullish 19/30 Bullish , Avoid , Bearish (63.33% score Above 60% hai, isliye Green.) Probability 🟩 70% Upside/Continuation: Index ka key technical levels aur strong OI support ke upar hold karna bullish trend continuation ka sanket deta hai. R:R 🟩 Favorable (Upside Potential R2 tak strong hai, SL ₹26,000 ke neeche rakha ja sakta hai.) FNO Data 🟩 Strong Put Writing & PCR: PCR 1.50 par hai, indicating high bullish conviction. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Strong Demand Zone: ₹25,950 - ₹26,000 (High Put OI) 🟥 Supply Zone: ₹26,200 - ₹26,270 (Previous Highs / Call Writing) Max Pain 🟨 25,950 (Nov Expiry) DEMA Levels 🟩 20 DEMA: ₹26,043 50 DEMA: N/A 100 DEMA: N/A 200 DEMA: N/A 250 DEMA: N/A (Price short-term DEMA ke upar hai, bullish.) Supports 🟩 S1: ₹26,000 S2: ₹25,950 S3: ₹25,850 Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹26,195 R2: ₹26,270 R3: ₹26,500 ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 Momentum Positive: RSI (58-60 range mein) positive hai. Market Depth 🟩 Buy-biased (Overall market structure is bullish) Volatility 🟨 INDIAVIX: 12.1 (Low/Moderate Volatility) Source Ledger 🟩 NSE / Investing.com / 5paisa (Verified sources used) OI 🟩 High OI (Futures) & OI Chg (+4.67%): Long Build-up ka sanket. PCR 🟩 1.50 (High PCR, strongly Bullish) VWAP 🟨 Neutral (Price ke aas-paas) Turnover 🟩 High (High Volume, strong participation) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A IV/RV 🟨 IV: 11.3 (ATM IV moderate hai.) Options Skew 🟩 Bullish Skew: Upside ki options ki demand zyada hai. Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Advanced Greeks data not available) Block Trades 🟨 N/A (No immediate major Block Trades reported) COT Positioning 🟩 Long Heavy (FIIs ka Index Futures mein net long bias (61% long vs 39% short) maintain hai.) Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟨 Neutral: US Bond Yields se correlation stable hai. ETF Rotation 🟩 Positive Flow (Domestic Equity ETFs mein strong inflows.) Sentiment Index 🟩 Cautious Greed OFI 🟨 N/A (Order Flow Imbalance data not explicitly available) Delta 🟨 N/A (Options Delta data not explicitly available) VWAP Bands 🟨 Price near VWAP (Neutral) Rotation Metrics 🟨 N/A
NSE:NIFTYLong
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Copper AI Tool showing upmove continue holding buy 995Parameters Data Asset Name : Price 🟩 Copper MCX : 1004.25 Price Movement 🟩 Upmove will continue to 1015.50, 1024.90 if break 1024.90 then breakout Until 998.05 not break if break then 991.50, 988.90 possible. Reason 🟩 Technical Breakout & Long Build-up: Price ka key technical resistance (₹1000) ke upar sustain karna aur Derivatives data se Long Build-up. 🟥 Dollar Strength: US Dollar Index ki mazbooti upar ke levels par selling la sakti hai. Confidence 🟩 Bullish 19/30 Bullish , Avoid , Bearish (63.33% score Above 60% hai, isliye Green.) Probability 🟩 70% Upside: Price ka key moving averages ke upar trade karna aur strong Long Build-up high upside probability dikhata hai. R:R 🟩 Favorable (Buy Side: Agar SL ₹998 aur T1 ₹1015.50 rakha jaaye, approx 1:2.5) FNO Data 🟩 Long Build-up: Price up, OI up (Fresh buying ka sanket). Liquidity Zones 🟩 Support Zone: ₹995.00 - ₹1000.00 (20 DEMA aur Psychological Level) 🟥 Resistance Zone: ₹1015.50 - ₹1025.00 (R1 aur R2 Levels) Max Pain 🟨 N/A (No specific Max Pain data found) DEMA Levels 🟩 20 DEMA: ₹998.05 50 DEMA: ₹983.07 100 DEMA: N/A 200 DEMA: N/A 250 DEMA: N/A (Short-term average ke upar trade, strong signal) Supports 🟩 S1: ₹991.50 S2: ₹988.90 S3: ₹978.20 Resistances 🟩 R1: ₹1015.50 R2: ₹1024.90 R3: N/A ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI(14): 58.90 (Bullish Momentum ki taraf) MACD: Bullish Crossover (Expected) Market Depth 🟩 Buy-biased (Current price action buying interest dikhata hai) Volatility 🟨 Moderate (VIX mein koi bada spike nahi hai) Source Ledger 🟩 Investing.com / MCX India / QuantData (Verified sources used) OI 🟩 Expected Increase (High volume, high conviction buying) PCR 🟨 N/A (No explicit PCR data available) VWAP 🟩 Buy (Price VWAP ₹999 ke upar trade kar raha hai) Turnover 🟩 High (Volume mein badhotri expected) Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A IV/RV 🟨 IV Low: Volatility mein kami. Options Skew 🟨 N/A (No detailed Skew data available) Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Advanced Greeks data not available) Block Trades 🟨 N/A (No immediate Block Trades reported) COT Positioning 🟨 N/A (No specific COT Positioning data available) Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟨 Neutral/Inverse: Dollar se correlation weak ho raha hai, jisse Copper ko support mila. ETF Rotation 🟨 N/A (No direct Indian ETF data) Sentiment Index 🟩 Cautious Buy (Technical breakout aur fundamental support ke chalte) OFI 🟨 N/A (Order Flow Imbalance data not explicitly available) Delta 🟨 N/A (Options Delta data not explicitly available) VWAP Bands 🟩 Price above VWAP (Bullish indication) Rotation Metrics 🟨 N/A
MCX:COPPER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Crude MCX AI tool showing sideways till 5100 or 5280 not break Parameters Data Asset Name : Price 🟥 Crude Oil MCX (Dec) : 5,188 Price Movement 🟨 Sideways will continue to 5,280, 5,350 if break 5,350 then breakout Until 5,100 not break if break then 5,030, 4,950 possible. Reason 🟨 Demand Concerns vs. OPEC+ Cuts: Global demand ki chinta aur US inventories mein build-up se prices par dabaav, jise OPEC+ ke supply cuts support de rahe hain. Confidence 🟨 Neutral 15/30 Bullish , Avoid , Bearish (50.00% score 40% se 60% ki range mein hai, isliye Yellow/Neutral.) Probability 🟨 60% Sideways/Consolidation: Jab tak ₹5,100 aur ₹5,350 ki range break nahi hoti, tab tak range-bound movement expected hai. R:R 🟨 Neutral: Current levels par R:R 1:1 ke aas-paas hai. FNO Data 🟨 Liquidation/Unwinding: Price down aur OI down (-2.15%) dikha raha hai. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Support Zone: ₹5,100 - ₹5,150 (Key Psychological Support) 🟥 Resistance Zone: ₹5,300 - ₹5,350 (Previous Highs) Max Pain 🟨 N/A (No specific Max Pain data found) DEMA Levels 🟨 20 DEMA: ₹5,250 50 DEMA: ₹5,105 100 DEMA: N/A 200 DEMA: N/A 250 DEMA: N/A (Price 20 DEMA ke neeche, 50 DEMA ke upar, neutral bias.) Supports 🟩 S1: ₹5,100 S2: ₹5,030 S3: ₹4,950 Resistances 🟥 R1: ₹5,280 R2: ₹5,350 R3: ₹5,500 ADX/RSI/DMI 🟨 RSI(14): 49.20 (Neutral) ADX: 18.00 (Weak Trend) Market Depth 🟨 Neutral (No strong bias) Volatility 🟨 Moderate (ATR values stable hain.) Source Ledger 🟩 MCX / CME / OANDA (Verified sources used) OI 🟨 16,500 contracts (Change: -2.15%; minor unwinding) PCR 🟨 N/A (No explicit PCR data available) VWAP 🟥 Sell (Price VWAP ₹5,220 ke neeche trade kar raha hai) Turnover 🟨 Moderate Harmonic Pattern 🟨 N/A IV/RV 🟨 IV Moderate: Implied Volatility stable hai. Options Skew 🟨 Neutral (No strong directional Skew dikh raha hai) Vanna/Charm 🟨 N/A (Advanced Greeks data not available) Block Trades 🟨 N/A (No immediate Block Trades reported) COT Positioning 🟨 Neutral (Large money managers long position maintain kar rahe hain.) Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟨 Neutral to Equities: Correlation weak hai. ETF Rotation 🟨 Neutral Sentiment Index 🟨 Cautious Neutral OFI 🟨 N/A (Order Flow Imbalance data not explicitly available) Delta 🟨 N/A (Options Delta data not explicitly available) VWAP Bands 🟥 Price below VWAP (Bearish indication) Rotation Metrics 🟨 N/A
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Gold mcx AI Tool report showing upmove, holding buy @121600 Parameters Data Asset Name : Price 🟩 Gold MCX (Feb '26) : 1,24,101 Price Movement 🟩 Upmove will continue to 1,24,500, 1,25,500 if break 1,25,500 then breakout Until 1,22,000 not break if break then 1,21,800, 1,19,250 possible. Reason 🟩 Technical Reversal & Analyst View: Strong buying interest ne ₹1,22,000 ke crucial support ko hold kiya. Global cues (US rate cut bets) se thoda pressure. Confidence 🟩 Bullish 19/30 Bullish , Avoid , Bearish (63.33% score Above 60% hai, isliye Green.) Probability 🟩 70% Upside: Bullish trend structure intact hai, aur price key support se upar trade kar raha hai. R:R 🟩 Favorable (Upside Target ₹1,27,000 vs SL ₹1,22,000. Approx 1:1.45) FNO Data 🟩 Short Covering / Long Build-up: Correction ke baad recovery indicates short-covering aur fresh buying. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Support Zone: ₹1,22,000 - ₹1,21,800 (Crucial Technical/Analyst Support) 🟥 Resistance Zone: ₹1,24,500 - ₹1,25,500 (Near-Term Supply Zone) Max Pain 🟨 N/A (No specific Max Pain data found for this contract) DEMA Levels 🟩 20 DEMA: ₹1,21,875 50 DEMA: ₹1,18,985 100 DEMA: N/A 200 DEMA: N/A 250 DEMA: N/A (Price 20 DEMA ke aas-paas hai, 50 DEMA ke upar, long-term trend bullish.) Supports 🟩 S1: ₹1,22,000 S2: ₹1,21,570 S3: ₹1,20,905 Resistances 🟩 R1: ₹1,24,500 R2: ₹1,25,500 R3: ₹1,27,000 ADX/RSI/DMI 🟨 RSI(14): 49.129 (Neutral) ADX: 15.033 (Weak/No Trend) Market Depth 🟨 Neutral (Day-end data, no strong bias) Volatility 🟨 Moderate (ATR values low volatility show kar rahe hain) Source
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | November 21-22✅From the 4-hour timeframe, gold rebounded strongly to 4101 (previous high + Bollinger upper band + MA20 resistance) and then quickly fell back to the 4080 area, indicating that selling pressure at higher levels remains very strong. 1️⃣ Moving averages remain bearish MA5 and MA10 have turned upward slightly, but overall still remain below MA20. MA20 (around 4155) acts as strong resistance, and the failure to break above shows the rebound is still a weak corrective move, not a trend reversal. 2️⃣ Bollinger Bands remain weak Price continues to trade near the Bollinger mid-band (around 4071) and has failed multiple times to break the upper band. The Bollinger Bands have not expanded upward, indicating the market is still in a weak, range-bound structure. 3️⃣ Clear rejection signal A long upper wick formed at 4101 — a classic “spike and reversal” pattern. Bears aggressively sold at resistance, forming a clear short-term top. 📌 H4 Conclusion: Rebound met resistance, the market remains in a weak corrective phase, and no bullish reversal structure has formed. ✅ On the 1-hour timeframe, gold rebounded strongly from 4022 → 4101, but still failed to break through key resistance. 1️⃣ Rebound failure at 4101 → structure shifts to consolidation After touching 4101, gold quickly pulled back to the 4080 area, showing weakening bullish momentum. This level corresponds to previous highs + Bollinger upper band resistance, making a breakout difficult. 2️⃣ Moving averages continue to suppress MA10 / MA20 / MA60 remain in a bearish configuration; the H1 structure has not turned bullish. Although 4080 provides support, rebound highs are gradually decreasing, signaling fading momentum. 3️⃣ Short-term rebound strength is limited The most recent rebound only reached MA10 and failed to regain key levels. This confirms the bounce is a weak correction, not a structural trend change. 📌 H1 Conclusion: Short-term spike faded, structure remains weak, and rebound is unlikely to break above the 4100–4110 strong resistance zone. 🔴 Resistance Levels 4100–4110 (major resistance zone: previous high + MAs + Bollinger upper band) 4132 4155 🟢 Support Levels 4075–4070 4044–4038 4022 3997 ✅If you would like to receive real-time trading signals and professional guidance, you are welcome to join our membership. We provide comprehensive services including account risk management, position control, and strategy adjustments to help you achieve stable and consistent profits in the market🤝 ✅ Trading Strategy Suggestions (Key Focus Today) 🔰 Strategy 1: Sell the Rebound (Primary Strategy) If gold rebounds to 4095–4105 and faces rejection: ✔️ Light short positions ❌ Stop-loss: 4118 (exit immediately if price breaks above 4110) 🎯 Targets: 4075 / 4055 / 4040 👉 Reason: 4100–4110 is extremely strong resistance with low probability of a breakout. 🔰 Strategy 2: Short After a Failed Breakout If price makes a false breakout above 4110 but fails to hold: ✔️ Enter short immediately 🎯 Same targets as above ⚠️ A long upper wick is a bearish signal. 🔰 Strategy 3: Trend-Following Short on Breakdown If gold breaks 4038–4044: ✔️ Follow with breakout shorts 🎯 Targets: 4022 / 4008 / 3997 👉 This zone is the key dividing line; breaking it gives full control to the bears. 🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTrading_JACK
XVG Was pumped 13000000% in 2015-2017 so what Next?Crypto History Reminder: SGX:XVG was one of the most explosive rallies of the 2015–2017 cycle, a 13,000,000% (13M%) move in under two years. Despite the noise, it still trades +296,000% above its 2015 baseline. OGs know the John McAfee era was a major catalyst, but the market is no longer driven by personalities, it’s driven by structure. Technically: As long as XVG holds the $0.004 support, trend bias remains bullish on higher-timeframe structure. Cycles repeat. Narratives change. Price action doesn’t lie. NFA & DYOR
CRYPTO:XVGUSDLong
by CryptoPatel
AVANTIFEED: Breaking out of Sym. Triangle, Chart of the WeekNSE:AVANTIFEED Breaking the Triangle: How Avanti Feeds is Positioned to Ride the Shrimp Export Wave Despite US Tariff Headwinds after Posting Strong Q2 FY26 Numbers. Lets Analyse in Chart of the Week. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. Price Action Analysis: Historical Price Journey: - 2021-2022: Strong rally from 360 levels to 750 zone - 2023: Consolidation and correction to 350-400 range - 2024: Strong recovery rally pushing to new all-time highs near 964.20 - 2025: Symmetrical triangle consolidation followed by recent breakout Current Price Behavior: - Recent breakout candle shows strong buying with minimal upper wick - Trading at 861.20 with +14.51% gain indicates momentum strength - Price approaching previous resistance zones that could act as supply Volume Spread Analysis: Volume Characteristics: - Recent breakout accompanied by 9x surge in volumes (19.86M vs average) - Volume expansion during rally phases from 2023-2024 shows institutional accumulation - Volume spikes at key support levels during consolidation indicate buying interest - Current volume profile suggests smart money participation Volume-Price Correlation: - Strong positive correlation during uptrends (2023-2024 rally) - Declining volume during consolidation phase typical of healthy correction - Recent volume breakout confirms bullish sentiment reversal Symmetrical Triangle Formation (2024-2025): - The stock has been consolidating in a clear symmetrical triangle pattern since reaching its 52 Week high of 964.20 in early 2025 - Lower highs connecting from 964.20 level and higher lows forming from 630.00 support zone - Triangle apex converging near current price levels, indicating an imminent breakout - Pattern duration: approximately 12 months, suggesting significance of upcoming move - Recent price action shows a breakout attempt with strong volume support Broke Symmetrical Triangle with Strong Volumes: - Current price at 861.20 (as of November 21, 2025) shows +14.51% gain with volume surge to 3.9M shares - Volume expansion at 19.86M significantly exceeds average, validating breakout - The breakout has occurred with conviction, supported by high trading activity Key Technical Levels: Support Zones: - Primary Support: 680.00 - 700.00 (recent consolidation base) - Secondary Support: 630.00 (lower triangle trendline) - Critical Support: 570.00 (psychological and structural level) - Ultimate Support: 470.00-510.00 (2024 demand zone) Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: 860.00 (swing high zone) - Major Resistance: 920.00 - 964.20 (all-time high region) - If ATH breaks, next targets: 1,000.00 and 1,100.00 Base Formation: - A strong base has been established between 630.00 to 760.00 through 2025 - Multiple retests of lower support levels throughout the year have strengthened the base - Base duration of 10-12 months provides solid foundation for next leg up Trend Analysis: Long-term Trend (Weekly/Monthly): - Primary uptrend intact despite year-long consolidation - Price remains well above rising 200-week moving average - Higher lows pattern from 2022 onwards indicates bullish structure Medium-term Trend (Daily): - Breaking out of consolidation range with strong momentum - Upper triangle trendline resistance conquered - Price action suggesting potential trend reversal from sideways to bullish Short-term Momentum: - Sharp upward move with strong candles indicating buying pressure - Current momentum favors bulls with potential for continuation Fundamental & Sectoral Backdrop: Company Overview & Business Segments: Core Business Operations: - India's leading shrimp feed manufacturer with integrated operations - Two primary divisions: Shrimp Feed Division and Shrimp Processing & Export Division - Market capitalization: Rs 9,633 crores (approximately $1.15 billion) - Strategic partnership with Thai Union Group (Thailand) - minority stake holder Production Capacity & Scale: - Annual shrimp feed manufacturing capacity: 775,000 metric tons (largest in India) - Shrimp processing capacity: Producing 28,000 metric tons annually - Multiple manufacturing facilities across coastal states - Hatchery division with capacity of 600 million post-larvae Recent Financial Performance: Q2 FY26 Results (Quarter Ended September 2025): - Consolidated Net Profit: Rs 153.29 crores (up 34.88% YoY, down 14.02% QoQ) - Net Sales: Rs 1,609.69 crores (up 18.79% YoY, flat 0.21% QoQ) - Operating Performance shows mixed signals with YoY growth but QoQ softness - EPS: Rs 11.25 (vs Rs 8.34 in Q2 FY25) H1 FY26 Performance (Six Months Ended September 2025): - Total Income: Rs 3,316.11 crores (up 13.11% YoY) - Net Profit: Rs 331.57 crores (up 37.09% YoY) - EPS: Rs 24.34 (vs Rs 17.75 in H1 FY25) - Strong first-half performance despite challenging conditions Segment Performance Highlights: - Shrimp Feed Division: Facing margin pressure from rising raw material costs (fishmeal, soybean meal) - Shrimp Processing Division: 62% YoY growth in gross income for Q2 FY26, driven by diversification and favorable forex rates - Profit Before Tax (PBT): Rs 227 crores in Q2, down 8.83% QoQ indicating margin compression Key Financial Metrics & Valuation: Profitability Ratios: - Return on Equity (ROE): 18.88% - well above industry average - Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): 65.44% - exceptional capital efficiency - Operating Margin: Declining by 126 basis points QoQ in Q2 FY26 - Net Profit Margin: 10.5% (Q2 FY26) Balance Sheet Strength: - Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Negative -0.69 (debt-free, net cash position) - Fortress balance sheet with zero debt burden - Strong working capital position despite rising debtor turnover pressures Valuation Metrics: - Current P/E Ratio: 19x - Price-to-Book Value: 3.90x (reasonable given high ROE) - Dividend Yield: 1.05% - Latest Dividend: Rs 9.00 per share (August 2025), payout ratio of 23.19% Quality Indicators: - Consistent dividend payer with conservative payout ratios - High ROCE indicates superior capital allocation - Zero leverage provides financial flexibility and risk cushion Sectoral Landscape - Indian Aquaculture & Shrimp Industry: Market Size & Growth Trajectory: - Indian Shrimp Market: Valued at $9.2 billion in 2024, projected to reach $22.7 billion by 2033 (CAGR: 10.1%) - Indian Shrimp Feed Market: $2.0 billion in 2024, expected to grow to $7.4 billion by 2033 (CAGR: 15.7%) - India Aquafeed Market: $3.51 billion in 2024, projected at $6.40 billion by 2032 (CAGR: 7.8%) - India ranks as second-largest shrimp producer and exporter globally after Ecuador Production & Export Statistics: - FY24 Seafood Exports: Rs 60,523.89 crores (1.78 million metric tons), up 2.67% in volume - Frozen shrimp accounts for 66.12% of export earnings and 40.19% of export volume - India shipped seafood worth approximately $7.4 billion last fiscal year - Production volumes show resilience despite global headwinds Key Export Markets (Traditional): - United States: Largest market, historically accounting for 40-50% of exports - China: Second-largest market with 451,000 MT ($1.38 billion) - Japan: Third major destination - Other significant markets: Vietnam, Thailand, EU (Belgium, Spain), Canada, UAE, Italy Domestic Market Dynamics: - 72.1% of Indian population (967 million individuals) include fish in their diet - Growing domestic consumption driven by health awareness and rising incomes - Shift toward value-added products (ready-to-cook, processed seafood) Major Industry Challenges & Headwinds: US Tariff Crisis: - August 27, 2025: US imposed 50% reciprocal tariff on Indian shrimp imports (25% base + 25% penalty) - Combined with existing duties: Anti-dumping (3.96%), Countervailing duty (5.77%) - Total effective duty burden: 58.26% on Indian shrimp exports to US - August 2025 impact: Indian shrimp exports to US collapsed 43% YoY to 16,495 MT - Total Indian export volumes fell 9% YoY in August 2025 Cost Pressures: - Rising raw material costs for feed production (fishmeal, soybean meal) - Increasing labor and energy costs impacting margins - Competition from Ecuador in US market, especially in headless shell-on segment - Global oversupply situation causing price depression Disease & Environmental Risks: - Disease outbreaks remain persistent risk in aquaculture - Climate change and water quality challenges - Regulatory compliance and sustainability certification requirements Emerging Opportunities & Positive Catalysts: Posted Strong Q2FY26 Numbers Despite US Tariff: - Despite 50% US tariff headwinds, company posted 34.88% YoY profit growth - Revenue growth of 18.79% YoY demonstrates resilience - Shrimp processing division grew 62% YoY, offsetting feed segment pressures - Management successfully diversifying away from US market dependence China Seafood Export Ban Can Benefit Indian Exporters: - China banned all Japanese seafood imports (November 2025) amid diplomatic tensions - This creates substantial market opportunity for Indian seafood exporters - Indian companies can fill supply gap in massive Chinese market - China already importing 12,190 MT from India in August 2025, up 33% YoY - Market diversification reducing US dependency from 48% toward 30-35% Government Support & Policy Initiatives: - Union Budget 2025: Proposed 5% Basic Customs Duty on key feed production inputs (down from higher rates) - Rs 4.5 lakh crore support package for export sectors including seafood - Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY): Rs 2,352 crores allocated (56% increase) - Department of Fisheries budget: Rs 2,616.44 crores (54% increase YoY) - Government targeting $14 billion+ seafood exports by 2025 - Fishery Infrastructure Development Fund (FIDF) for modernization Market Diversification Strategy: - Companies actively expanding presence in EU, Middle East, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea - Vietnam, Thailand, Canada becoming key alternative markets - Development of value-added products commanding higher margins - China emerging as third-largest market for Indian shrimp after US and Europe Technology & Innovation Adoption: - Advanced breeding techniques producing disease-resistant varieties - Biofloc technology and Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS) improving efficiency - Precision feeding technologies enhancing feed conversion ratios - Integration of probiotics and functional ingredients in feed formulations - Cold chain infrastructure growing 15-30% annually Product Portfolio Expansion: - Avanti Feeds launched new pet food products receiving positive market acceptance - Shift toward value-added products: cooked, breaded, marinated offerings - Value-added exports up 27% year-to-date despite overall volume pressure - Premium products targeting European and Asian markets Structural Competitive Advantages: - Zero-debt balance sheet provides flexibility during market disruptions - Highest feed manufacturing capacity (775,000 MT) among Indian players - Integrated operations from hatchery to processing create vertical synergies - Strong R&D capabilities and partnerships (Thai Union Group) - Established distribution networks and brand recognition Ecuador Supply Disruptions: - Ecuador facing energy rationing issues disrupting shrimp production - May redirect global buyers toward Indian suppliers - Potential to strengthen pricing power and market share gains - Ecuador's challenges provide tactical advantage for Indian exporters Sustainability Certifications & Premium Markets: - Growing demand for certified sustainable seafood (BAP, ASC standards) - Indian producers investing in traceability and quality systems - Access to premium European markets requiring strict compliance - Competitive advantage in environmentally-conscious consumer segments Competitive Positioning: Market Leadership: - Avanti Feeds ranked #1 in Indian shrimp sector by production and revenue - Feed manufacturing: 775,000 MT capacity (largest) - Shrimp production: 28,000 MT annually - Revenue: EUR 615 million (Rs 5,500+ crores) for FY 2022-23 Key Competitors: - Devi Sea Foods: #2 ranked, EUR 391 million revenue, 52,000 MT shrimp production, 300,000 MT feed capacity - Waterbase Limited: Major player with diversified operations - Coastal Corporation: Expanding China presence, up 5% recently on China opportunity - Apex Frozen Foods: Strong Q2 with positive earnings surprise Industry Consolidation Trends: - Top 19 players dominating production and processing - Increasing entry of multinational companies through JVs - Consolidation driven by scale requirements and technology investments Risk Factors & Concerns: Short-term Challenges: - US tariff situation remains fluid; potential for escalation to full 50% or negotiation down to 15% - Sequential margin compression (Q2 vs Q1) indicates near-term profitability pressure - Raw material cost inflation continuing into FY26 - Working capital pressures with rising debtor turnover ratio Medium-term Uncertainties: - Global shrimp prices at lowest inflation-adjusted levels since 2020 - Industry growth stagnation: India's peak exports in 2021 (704,160 MT) not yet regained - Competitive intensity from Ecuador, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia - EU and other markets may also impose trade restrictions Operational Risks: - Disease outbreaks can rapidly impact production - Water quality and environmental compliance requirements - Climate-related risks (extreme weather, temperature variations) - Forex volatility impacting export realizations Strategic Concerns: - Slower than expected market diversification progress - Dependence on commodity shrimp prices - Shift to Black Tiger (Monodon) from Vannamei faces adoption challenges - Pet food venture in highly competitive market against established players like Mars Bull Case Scenario: Technical Setup: - Clean breakout from year-long symmetrical triangle with high volume - If momentum sustains, targets of 860, 920, and new highs above 1,000 are achievable - Strong base formation provides downside support Fundamental Strengths: - China-Japan seafood ban creates immediate export opportunity - Government support package and duty cuts improve cost structure - Debt-free balance sheet provides safety margin - Exceptional ROCE (65.44%) and ROE (18.88%) demonstrate operational excellence - Valuation attractive at 16.26x P/E with 9.7% discount to industry Growth Drivers: - Shrimp feed market growing at 15.7% CAGR through 2033 - Market diversification reducing US exposure from 48% to 30-35% - Value-added product strategy improving margins - Capacity leadership position (775,000 MT feed) creates moat Bear Case Scenario: Technical Risks: - Failure to hold above 700 support could trigger return to triangle - Overhead resistance at 860-920 zone may cap upside - Volume sustainability crucial; fading volumes could signal false breakout Fundamental Concerns: - Sequential profit decline (Q2 vs Q1) signals margin pressure - US tariffs may worsen if no trade deal materialized - Global shrimp prices at multi-year lows (inflation-adjusted) - Raw material cost inflation squeezing feed margins - Industry growth stagnation since 2021 peak Structural Headwinds: - Mature business with 5-year sales CAGR of only 7.5% - Intense competition from Ecuador in key US market - Working capital pressures building (deteriorating debtor turnover) Key Monitorables: Quarterly Metrics: - Feed sales volumes and pricing trends - Shrimp processing margins and export realizations - Geographic revenue mix (US vs other markets) - Raw material cost trends (fishmeal, soybean meal) Market Developments: - Progress on US-India trade negotiations (tariff reduction to 15%?) - China market penetration success metrics - Ecuador supply situation and competitive dynamics - Government policy implementation and subsidy flows Technical Levels: - Sustenance above 700 crucial for bullish structure - Volume patterns on approach to 860-920 resistance - Any breakdown below 630 would be major warning sign My 2 Cents: The technical breakout from the symmetrical triangle, combined with the China-Japan seafood ban opportunity, creates an interesting risk-reward setup. The company has demonstrated resilience by posting strong YoY numbers despite the US tariff shock. However, the sequential margin compression and global shrimp price weakness remain concerns. The debt-free balance sheet and exceptional capital efficiency metrics (65% ROCE) provide a strong safety cushion. Market diversification efforts are progressing, though slower than ideal. The 15.7% CAGR expected in the shrimp feed market through 2033 provides secular tailwinds. From a technical perspective, the stock needs to sustain above 700 and break through 860 with volume to confirm the bullish breakout. The year-long consolidation provides a solid base, but overhead supply at 860-920 could test conviction. So Avanti Feeds presents a compelling case of a fundamentally strong company navigating through short-term headwinds while benefiting from emerging opportunities. The technical breakout aligns with positive fundamental catalysts (China ban on Japan, government support), though execution challenges and margin pressures remain. The company's market leadership, zero-debt status, and superior returns metrics make it a quality play on India's growing aquaculture story. Investors should monitor the sustainability of the technical breakout, progress on market diversification, and margin trajectory in coming quarters. The current setup offers an asymmetric opportunity with defined risk. Full Coverage on my Newsletter this Week Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. As per the Latest SEBI Mandate, this isn't a Trading/Investment RECOMMENDATION nor for Educational Purposes; it is just for Informational purposes only. The chart data used is 3 Months old, as Showing Live Chart Data is not allowed according to the New SEBI Mandate. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:AVANTIFEEDLong
by Karanshah137
5
Bitcoin’Smart Money Setup: $80K Drop Before $108K Rebound!Bitcoin is currently trading near $102,000 after showing multiple signs of exhaustion at the top. I expect BTC to drop toward the $80,000 zone — this will likely act as a liquidity grab or a correction phase. From there, a short-term bounce toward $108,000 could trap late buyers before the major macro downtrend begins. Next year, Bitcoin may form its final cycle bottom near $50,000, where long-term accumulation could restart. This setup reflects a smart money distribution pattern — first a correction, then a fake rally, and finally a deeper decline. 📊 Levels to Watch: Short-term Target: $80,000 Reversal Bounce: $108,000 Long-term Bottom: $50,000
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sushilrawat
2
$BTC STANDING ON ITS LAST SUPPORT: READ THIS BEFORE YOUR TRADEBITCOIN TECH UPDATE — FRESH LEVELS, FRESH PAIN CRYPTOCAP:BTC just dumped to $80,641, making a new low since 12 April 2025. That’s almost -30% from my Short + Exit levels. Those who Rode the Short, Enjoy the profits. Those who avoided chasing above $120k, capital saved again. Where We Stand Now Bitcoin is sitting exactly on the 0.786 Fib ($83,300), the strongest bullish support left on the chart. This level = Bulls’ last hope. If daily candle doesn’t close below $83,300, then expect a relief rally into upside inefficiencies: Upside Targets (If 0.786 Holds) $88,600 → major unfilled FVG $93,000 → bearish Order Block (high probability fill) $98,000 → another upside FVG waiting to be delivered Watch how price behaves at these levels — next macro move will be decided there. If 0.786 Fib Breaks… Be ready. Next liquidity pools: $73,000 / $66,000 Both zones have massive bullish orderflow waiting. If 0.786 support holds → BTC still has high probability to push for a new ATH. Summary: Trend still bearish, but BTC is now at a critical support. Hold → relief rallies + possibly new ATH. Break → $73k–$66k incoming. Stay sharp. Watch the levels. Trade with intention. NFA &" DYOR
Short
by CryptoPatel
Smart Money Liquidity Trap Explained⭐ Smart Money Liquidity Trap Explained ✨ A deep dive into how institutions manipulate price before major moves ✨ In every financial market — Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Indices — price doesn’t simply move at random. Behind the scenes, Smart Money (institutions, banks, hedge funds) engineer setups that allow them to enter positions at the best possible price. One of their most effective tools is the Liquidity Trap. Let’s break it down beautifully and clearly. 👇 🔥 What Is a Liquidity Trap? A Liquidity Trap occurs when Smart Money deliberately pushes price into areas loaded with: ❌ Stop-loss orders 📉 Sell-side liquidity 📈 Buy-side liquidity 😰 Emotional retail entries 🔥 Breakout traders placing pending orders These areas become liquidity pools — perfect fuel for institutions to fill their massive positions. Retail traders think it’s a breakout… But Smart Money thinks: ➡️ "Thank you for the liquidity." 🧩 How Smart Money Creates the Trap 1️⃣ Phase 1: Build the Setup Smart Money guides price slowly toward an obvious level: A clean high A clean low A trendline A double top/bottom Retail traders get excited: 📢 “Breakout coming!” But institutions are simply gathering attention. 2️⃣ Phase 2: The Liquidity Grab ⚡ Price spikes violently above/below the obvious level. This move triggers: 🟥 Stop-loss hunts 📉 Forced liquidations 💥 Breakouts that fail instantly This sudden spike gives institutions the liquidity needed to place large buy or sell orders without causing massive slippage. This is why the spike is often fast and dramatic. 3️⃣ Phase 3: The Real Move Begins 🚀 After the liquidity is collected, price reverses sharply. This is the moment Smart Money actually commits to the real direction. Retail traders feel: 🤯 “Why did it reverse?!” 😭 “I got stopped out for nothing!” 😵 “The breakout was fake!” But Smart Money simply executed their strategy perfectly. 🎯 How to Use Liquidity Traps in Your Trading Study where retail traders commonly place: ⛔ Stops 📌 Breakout orders ❗ Predictable entries Then wait for the fast liquidity grab followed by: A displacement 🎇 A sharp wick rejection A structure shift (CHoCH / BOS) These signals often reveal the true direction of the upcoming move. 💡 Key Features of a Smart Money Liquidity Trap ✨ Sudden spike into obvious areas ✨ Fast liquidation and stop-hunting behavior ✨ Sharp wick rejections ✨ Structure shift after the spike ✨ Smooth continuation in the real direction 🚀 Why This Concept Is So Powerful Recognizing liquidity traps allows you to: ❌ Avoid fake breakouts 🛡️ Protect yourself from stop-hunts 🎯 Enter the market at premium/discount levels 🤝 Align with Smart Money 💼 Improve long-term consistency This is how professional traders stay on the right side of volatility — by understanding why the market moves, not just where it moves.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by XAU_EMPIRE
Gold H1 – Is This Just a Range or a Break Incoming?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (21/11) 📈 Market Context Gold continues to trade inside a compressed intraday range as markets react to the latest discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates anytime soon. According to new reports, policymakers remain cautious, and early rate-cut expectations are fading as inflation progress slows. This shift pushes USD stronger, increases Treasury yields, and temporarily weakens gold’s bullish momentum. Key takeaways from the news: • Fed officials note that inflation is “still not where it needs to be,” reducing the probability of early rate cuts. • Markets have scaled back expectations for a Q1 cut, keeping USD supported. • Higher yields → tighter financial conditions → gold struggles to break premium levels. • Institutions are likely engineering liquidity grabs on both sides before committing to a new directional move. Price is currently sitting near the 4030–4045 zone, right above discount liquidity, waiting for a catalyst to break out of the short-term compression. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Structure) • Market Structure: Gold has completed a clear CHoCH + short-term bearish sequence and is now compressing into the discount zone around 4030. • Premium Sell Zone (4H Supply): 4128–4130 aligns with unmitigated supply + buy-side liquidity resting above internal highs. • Discount Buy Zone: 4030–4028 sits inside the last clean demand zone where a previous sweep occurred. • Liquidity Map: → Buy-side liquidity: above 4128–4135 → Sell-side liquidity: below 4028–4020 Institutions are likely to sweep one side before delivering direction. 🔴 Sell Setup (Premium Reaction Zone) • Entry: 4128 – 4130 • Stop-Loss: 4140 • Take-Profit: → 4080 (minor imbalance fill) → 4045 (range EQ) → 4030–4028 (discount demand retest) 📌 Execution rule: Wait for liquidity sweep into the zone + bearish CHoCH on M5–M15 before entering. 🟢 Buy Setup (Discount Reaction Zone) • Entry: 4030 – 4028 • Stop-Loss: 4020 • Take-Profit: → 4060 (short-term reaction level) → 4095 (inefficiency fill) → 4120 (premium retest) 📌 Valid only if price sweeps the 4030–4028 pocket and shows bullish displacement from discount. ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • USD strength may spike unexpectedly as rate-cut bets fade — reduce position size during volatility. • Avoid trading inside the 4045–4085 chop zone unless a clean structure break forms. • Manage trades aggressively once liquidity levels are taken. • Expect engineered manipulation during low-volume Asian hours. 📝 Summary Gold is compressing inside a narrow intraday range as markets reassess the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. SMC structure suggests a two-sided liquidity sweep before a decisive move: • Sell Zone: 4128–4130 (premium supply) • Buy Zone: 4030–4028 (discount demand) Expect classic accumulation → sweep → displacement patterns until macro conditions create a new trend. 📍 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for more Smart Money updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader