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Trend Analysis

WHEN THE RUPEE SCREAMS, MARKETS WHISPERA 20‑Year Inter‑Market Study Linking USD/INR Extremes to NIFTY Turning Points Executive Snapshot For over two decades, the USD/INR exchange rate has followed a clearly defined long‑term rising channel. This study explores a powerful yet under‑discussed inter‑market relationship: Indian equity markets tend to form major bottoms when USD/INR approaches long‑term resistance, and tend to form tops when USD/INR approaches long‑term support. Rather than acting as a trading signal, USD/INR is analysed here as a macro‑risk positioning indicator — helping investors identify probability zones of opportunity and risk. ________________________________________ The Hypothesis USD/INR behaves as a macro stress barometer for Indian equities. When currency stress peaks, equity risk is often already priced in. This framework shifts focus from prediction to risk‑reward asymmetry. ________________________________________ Key Historical Evidence (2003–2024) Inter‑Market Turning Points USD/INR Touch Point Period NIFTY NIFTY NIFTY % Gain Resistance → Support Feb‑2016 → Feb‑2018 7,500 10,760 43.47% Resistance → Support Oct‑2018 → Jun‑2019 10,316 11,788 14.27% Resistance → Support Mar‑2020 → Mar‑2021 8,660 14,867 71.67% Resistance → Support Sep‑2022 → Sep‑2024 17,094 26,178 53.14% Observation: Each instance of USD/INR testing long‑term resistance was followed by strong forward equity returns. ________________________________________ Why This Relationship Exists When USD/INR Nears Resistance • Capital outflows peak • Risk aversion dominates sentiment • INR weakness is fully priced in • Equities are already de‑risked ➡️ Markets bottom not on good news, but on exhaustion of bad news. ________________________________________ When USD/INR Nears Support • Capital inflows surge • Liquidity is abundant • Valuations expand aggressively • Risk perception collapses ➡️ Markets top when comfort is highest. ________________________________________ Probability Zone Framework 🟢 High Opportunity Zone USD/INR near long‑term resistance - Equity downside risk: Low - Forward returns: Above average - Investor mindset: Accumulation ________________________________________ 🟡 Neutral / Trend Zone USD/INR mid‑channel - Balanced risk‑reward - Stock selection critical ________________________________________ 🔴 High Risk Zone USD/INR near long‑term support - Equity drawdown risk elevated - Forward returns compressed - Capital protection becomes priority ________________________________________ What This Model Is — and Is Not This model IS: - A long‑term allocation aid - A regime identification framework - A behavioral risk‑management tool This model is NOT: - A short‑term trading signal - A market timing system - A replacement for fundamental analysis ________________________________________ Current Context (2025 Perspective) USD/INR remains in the upper half of its secular channel. While this does not imply immediate upside, it suggests that panic‑driven decisions may be costly and that equity risk‑reward is not as unfavorable as headline narratives suggest. ________________________________________ Conclusion The USDINR–NIFTY relationship offers a simple yet powerful lens to view Indian equity cycles. By observing currency extremes rather than price noise, investors can align capital deployment with macro probability zones rather than emotions. In markets, what feels safest is often most dangerous — and what feels riskiest often offers the best opportunity. ________________________________________ Disclaimer NOT A BUY / SELL RECOMMENDATION I am not an expert. I just share interesting charts here for educational purposes and not to be taken as buy/sell recommendations. Please seek expert opinion before investing or trading, as investing/trading in markets is subject to market risks. I do not hold any position in the securities referred to as on date; however, I may look to take positions based on my own risk‑reward framework.
Long
by purisonshuf
Weekly Analysis with buy/Sell scenarios in BTCAnother week and price is moved as expected in same range. No view change since last prediction. Refer previous details below… We analyzed three weeks back that BTC would be in range for some time before taking any further move, And BTC is following same analysis and trapped within a small range since then. BTC prediction of last week also worked perfectly well and market kept in consolidation mode itself. BTC is still in consolidation zone and may spend some more days. It may develop ABC pattern or reversal at identified daily FVG level, if price has to change its delivery and take turn from here. This zone is kind of make or break. If price is not able to sustain and breakdown, then it may witness ~65-70K levels as well. We hope for reversal from this level as price is developing the pattern at higher time frame. 1. Price has taken liquidity or 82K and almost touched 80K. 2. It has inversed 1Day FVG and now price is consolidating in the range between EMAs. 3. We may expect price retracement till 1D iFVG and then reversal. 4. Before to that we may see sweep of 92900 (1D CISD) level and then a retracement short trade till 1D FVG 5. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF. 6. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (5m/15m) at FVG zone. 7. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF All these combinations are signalling a high probability trade scenario. Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas. Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
DELTAIN:BTCUSD.P
by HareeyMarketMantraah
Nifty Hits a New Peak: Is the Next Leg Up Around the Corner?Indian equities kicked off the New Year with confidence, gaining nearly 1% and finally breaking out of a five-week consolidation phase. After a slow and mixed start, a strong rebound in the latter half of the week pushed the Nifty to a fresh all-time high of 26,329. Volatility ticked up slightly, with India VIX rising 3.28% to 9.45, but it continues to remain at comfortable, historically low levels. ◉ Technical Outlook As highlighted earlier, the Cup & Handle pattern has now taken a clearer shape. A decisive breakout and sustained move above the neckline could trigger the next leg of the rally. ◉ Key Levels to Watch ● Resistance: 26,500 – 26,600 (heavy call writing zone) ● Immediate Support: 26,100 – 26,200 ● Strong Support: 25,900 – 26,000 (heavy put writing zone) ◉ Near-Term View Nifty is likely to consolidate within a 300-point range, broadly between 26,200 and 26,500, as the market digests recent gains. ◉ Key Trigger to Watch Global cues remain important. Markets will closely monitor developments after reports of US military strikes on Venezuela, which could influence sentiment in the coming sessions. ◉ Trading Strategy Expect mild profit-taking at higher levels. Avoid aggressive fresh buying, protect existing gains, and stay selective by focusing on stocks showing relative strength.
NSE:NIFTY
by GoodluckCapital
CANBK Weekly Bullish Flag Breakout | Multiple Targets to 193.02CANBK (Canara Bank) – Weekly Analysis ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 TECHNICAL SETUP Current Price: 154.87 (+0.41%) Timeframe: Weekly (1W) Symbol: CANBK (Canara Bank Limited) Exchange: NSE Category: Stock / PSU Banking Sector ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 PATTERN ANALYSIS CANBK demonstrates a STRONG WEEKLY BULLISH FLAG BREAKOUT pattern: ✅ Flag Structure: Clear flagpole followed by tight consolidation in the 145–155 range ✅ Breakout Confirmation: Price decisively breaking above upper flag boundary on strong weekly candles ✅ Support Levels: Strong support identified at 150.84 with SL at 136.90 for risk management ✅ Volume Profile: Visible volume participation on the breakout confirming institutional interest ✅ Momentum: Sustained bullish momentum with stock now trading above consolidation levels ✅ Risk/Reward: Well-defined multi-target setup with excellent risk-reward ratio The stock shows textbook uptrend characteristics with proper support/resistance relationships, confirming the bullish flag breakout is a continuation pattern rather than a false move. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 PRICE TARGETS (Progressive Levels) 1st Target: 159.27 (+2.8% from current) 2nd Target: 167.71 (+8.3% from current) 3rd Target: 176.14 (+13.8% from current) 4th Target: 184.58 (+19.2% from current) 5th Target: 193.02 (+24.6% from current) These progressive targets represent key resistance zones and profit-taking levels along the uptrend trajectory. Each target should be treated as a potential decision point for scaling profits while maintaining exposure to further upside. The spacing between targets provides clear decision points for position management. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT Entry Zone: 150.84 (Breakout confirmation point - primary entry level after flag breakout) Stoploss: 136.90 (Weekly support - critical invalidation level marked as "SL on WCB") Risk/Reward Ratio: Risk (150.84 to 136.90) = 13.94 points Reward (150.84 to 193.02) = 42.18 points R:R Ratio = 1:3.02 (Excellent) Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade Stoploss is placed BELOW major weekly support level to ensure proper risk containment. Consider scaling in on dips toward the 150.84 entry zone for better average entries. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📍 KEY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE Immediate Support: 150.84 (Breakout/Buy zone - initial entry opportunity) Secondary Support: 136.90 (Stoploss / Major weekly support - invalidation zone) Resistance 1: 159.27 (1st Target) Resistance 2: 176.14 (Mid-term resistance / 3rd Target) Major Resistance: 193.02 (5th Target / Final Target) Intermediate Levels: Multiple targets provide stepping stones for profit realization at each resistance level, allowing systematic position management and partial profit booking. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔍 FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP – PSU BANKING STRENGTH CANBK benefits from strong macro tailwinds in PSU banking: ✅ Deposit Growth: PSU banks showing solid deposit growth momentum with improving CASA ratios across the sector ✅ Cost of Deposits: Lower-cost deposit mobilization supporting margin expansion opportunities ✅ Asset Quality: Improving asset quality metrics with NPA reduction initiatives showing results ✅ Dividend Support: PSU bank dividend yields provide downside cushion and income support ✅ Policy Tailwinds: Government support for PSU banking system and continued credit expansion initiatives ✅ Valuation: Trading at attractive valuations relative to private sector banks with strong dividend yield support ✅ Consolidation Play: PSU banking consolidation trends and government focus on strengthening PSU banks This macro backdrop combined with strong technical structure reinforces bullish conviction for trend-following strategies on dips. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎉 TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS Weekly uptrend remains intact with clear higher highs and higher lows forming Flag breakout on volume confirms institutional participation and buying strength Stock breaking above consolidation levels — a classic sign of strength in PSU banking space Breakout from a tight consolidation pattern shows disciplined buying Multiple targets suggest strong resistance zones ahead with clear profit-taking structure Proper risk/reward of 1:3.02 offers excellent entry/exit structure for positional traders Support at 136.90 provides good risk management anchor with well-defined stop placement Stock positions itself well for continued upside exploration across multiple target levels ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 TRADING STRATEGY NOTES ✓ Wait for weekly close above 150.84 before committing to fresh positions (confirmation is key) ✓ Consider scaling entries — don't go all-in at once; build position gradually on any dips ✓ Trail stoploss after each target level is achieved and confirmed on weekly basis ✓ Take partial profits at each resistance level — especially at 1st, 3rd, and 5th targets ✓ Preserve capital: Use strict position sizing and risk management (1-2% risk per trade) ✓ Monitor weekly closes carefully — price action at week-end is crucial for momentum confirmation ✓ Watch for gaps and opening levels — sudden reversals or news-driven moves can invalidate pattern ✓ CANBK is a PSU bank with strong dividend yield — suitable for positional traders and value-conscious investors ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ CRITICAL DISCLAIMER 🔴 THIS IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY 🔴 THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE OR AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION This analysis: Is based on historical price patterns and technical indicators Does NOT constitute investment advice or a buy/sell recommendation Is a personal observation and technical analysis only Should NOT be the sole basis for any investment decision Stock performance depends on multiple macroeconomic factors and banking sector dynamics ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ IMPORTANT RISKS TO UNDERSTAND ✓ Past performance does NOT guarantee future results ✓ Technical patterns can FAIL and trends can reverse suddenly ✓ Market conditions can change rapidly without warning ✓ This analysis is based on historical data only ✓ Stock investments carry significant risk of loss ✓ You may lose your ENTIRE investment amount ✓ This is a technical observation, NOT a guaranteed strategy ✓ Consult a qualified financial advisor before trading ✓ Do your own independent research (DYOR) before investing ✓ Use strict position sizing and risk management always ✓ Interest rate changes can impact banking sector sentiment ✓ Regulatory changes affecting PSU banks can affect valuations ✓ Market liquidity and volatility can impact execution and slippage ✓ Economic indicators and quarterly earnings can invalidate technical patterns ✓ Credit growth slowdowns can impact bank profitability ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 FINAL RISK ACKNOWLEDGMENT TRADING AND INVESTING IN STOCKS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. I am NOT a financial advisor, fund manager, or investment professional. This analysis is provided for educational purposes and personal trading observation only. Past patterns do not guarantee future performance. BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION: ✓ Conduct your own thorough research and due diligence ✓ Understand macroeconomic factors affecting banking sector ✓ Check interest rate trends and RBI monetary policy outlook ✓ Review latest quarterly earnings and asset quality metrics ✓ Verify your risk appetite and capital availability ✓ Consult with a qualified, SEBI-registered financial advisor ✓ Only invest capital you can afford to lose completely ✓ Never follow this as a guaranteed strategy or signal ✓ Understand leverage implications if using derivatives or F&O Your investment decisions are YOUR responsibility. Use proper risk management, stop losses, and position sizing always. Only risk capital you can afford to lose. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Trade responsibly. Risk management is paramount.
NSE:CANBKLong
by raigvivek
L&T Weekly Bullish Flag Breakout | Multiple Targets to 4,613.95L&T (Larsen & Toubro Limited) – Weekly Analysis ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 TECHNICAL SETUP Current Price: 4,163.40 (+0.56%) Timeframe: Weekly (1W) Symbol: LT (Larsen & Toubro Limited) Exchange: NSE Category: Stock / Engineering & Construction Sector ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 PATTERN ANALYSIS L&T demonstrates a STRONG WEEKLY BULLISH FLAG BREAKOUT pattern: ✅ Flag Structure: Clear flagpole followed by tight consolidation in the 4,050–4,140 range ✅ Breakout Confirmation: Price decisively breaking above upper flag boundary on strong weekly breakout candle ✅ Support Levels: Strong support identified at 4,140 with SL at 4,008 for risk management ✅ Volume Profile: Healthy breakout volume visible confirming institutional participation ✅ Momentum: Sustained bullish momentum with stock now trading above breakout levels ✅ Risk/Reward: Well-defined multi-target setup with exceptional risk-reward ratio The stock shows textbook uptrend characteristics with proper support/resistance relationships, confirming the bullish flag breakout is a continuation pattern rather than a false move. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 PRICE TARGETS (Progressive Levels) 1st Target: 4,234.15 (+1.7% from current) 2nd Target: 4,311.65 (+3.6% from current) 3rd Target: 4,385.05 (+5.3% from current) 4th Target: 4,460.95 (+7.1% from current) 5th Target: 4,537.55 (+9.0% from current) 6th Target: 4,613.95 (+10.8% from current) These progressive targets represent key resistance zones and profit-taking levels along the uptrend trajectory. Each target should be treated as a potential decision point for scaling profits while maintaining exposure to further upside. The spacing between targets allows for systematic position management. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT Entry Zone: 4,140.00 (Breakout confirmation point - primary entry level after flag breakout) Stoploss: 4,008.00 (Weekly support - critical invalidation level marked as "SL on WCB") Risk/Reward Ratio: Risk (4,140 to 4,008) = 132 points Reward (4,140 to 4,614) = 474 points R:R Ratio = 1:3.59 (Excellent) Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade Stoploss is placed BELOW major weekly support level to ensure proper risk containment. Consider scaling in on dips toward the 4,140 entry zone for better average entries. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📍 KEY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE Immediate Support: 4,140.00 (Breakout/Buy zone - initial entry opportunity) Secondary Support: 4,008.00 (Stoploss / Major weekly support - invalidation zone) Resistance 1: 4,234.15 (1st Target) Resistance 2: 4,385.05 (Mid-term resistance / 3rd Target) Major Resistance: 4,613.95 (6th Target / Final Target) Intermediate Levels: Multiple targets provide stepping stones for profit realization at each resistance level, allowing systematic position management and partial profit booking. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔍 FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP – ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION STRENGTH L&T benefits from strong macro tailwinds in infrastructure and construction sectors: ✅ Infrastructure Growth: India's accelerated capex spending and infrastructure development initiatives provide sustained demand for L&T's services ✅ Order Book Strength: L&T maintains a strong order book across segments (E&C, Services, Electrical & Automation) ✅ Margin Profile: Healthy gross and operational margins supported by scale and operational efficiency ✅ Dividend Support: Large-cap dividend yield provides downside cushion and income support ✅ Policy Tailwinds: Government focus on highways, railways, and urban infrastructure creates multi-year growth visibility ✅ Execution Track Record: Strong project execution capability and delivery track record enhances investor confidence ✅ Sector Positioning: Leading position in engineering & construction with diversified revenue streams reduces concentration risk This macro backdrop combined with strong technical structure reinforces bullish conviction for trend-following strategies on dips. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎉 TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS Weekly uptrend remains intact with clear higher highs and higher lows Flag breakout on volume confirms institutional participation and buying strength Stock breaking above consolidation levels — a classic sign of strength and accumulation Breakout volume shows healthy participation confirming the move is not on light volumes Multiple targets suggest strong resistance zones ahead with clear profit-taking structure Proper risk/reward of 1:3.59 offers excellent entry/exit structure for positional traders Support at 4,008 provides good risk management anchor with well-defined stop placement Stock positions itself well for continued upside exploration across multiple target levels ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 TRADING STRATEGY NOTES ✓ Wait for weekly close above 4,140 before committing to fresh positions (confirmation is key) ✓ Consider scaling entries — don't go all-in at once; build position gradually on any dips ✓ Trail stoploss after each target level is achieved and confirmed on weekly basis ✓ Take partial profits at each resistance level — especially at 1st, 3rd, and 6th targets ✓ Preserve capital: Use strict position sizing and risk management (1-2% risk per trade) ✓ Monitor weekly closes carefully — price action at week-end is crucial for momentum confirmation ✓ Watch for gaps and opening levels — sudden reversals or news-driven moves can invalidate pattern ✓ L&T is a large-cap defensive stock with strong dividend yield — suitable for positional traders and infrastructure-focused investors ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ CRITICAL DISCLAIMER 🔴 THIS IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY 🔴 THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE OR AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION This analysis: Is based on historical price patterns and technical indicators Does NOT constitute investment advice or a buy/sell recommendation Is a personal observation and technical analysis only Should NOT be the sole basis for any investment decision Stock performance depends on multiple macroeconomic factors and infrastructure sector dynamics ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ IMPORTANT RISKS TO UNDERSTAND ✓ Past performance does NOT guarantee future results ✓ Technical patterns can FAIL and trends can reverse suddenly ✓ Market conditions can change rapidly without warning ✓ This analysis is based on historical data only ✓ Stock investments carry significant risk of loss ✓ You may lose your ENTIRE investment amount ✓ This is a technical observation, NOT a guaranteed strategy ✓ Consult a qualified financial advisor before trading ✓ Do your own independent research (DYOR) before investing ✓ Use strict position sizing and risk management always ✓ Infrastructure sector cyclicality can impact valuations and growth ✓ Project execution delays can affect earnings and sentiment ✓ Market liquidity and volatility can impact execution and slippage ✓ Economic indicators and quarterly earnings can invalidate technical patterns ✓ Government policy changes affecting infrastructure spending can impact L&T fundamentals ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 FINAL RISK ACKNOWLEDGMENT TRADING AND INVESTING IN STOCKS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. I am NOT a financial advisor, fund manager, or investment professional. This analysis is provided for educational purposes and personal trading observation only. Past patterns do not guarantee future performance. BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION: ✓ Conduct your own thorough research and due diligence ✓ Understand macroeconomic factors affecting infrastructure and construction sectors ✓ Check project pipeline and order book details from latest quarterly results ✓ Verify your risk appetite and capital availability ✓ Consult with a qualified, SEBI-registered financial advisor ✓ Only invest capital you can afford to lose completely ✓ Never follow this as a guaranteed strategy or signal ✓ Understand leverage implications if using derivatives or F&O Your investment decisions are YOUR responsibility. Use proper risk management, stop losses, and position sizing always. Only risk capital you can afford to lose. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Trade responsibly. Risk management is paramount.
NSE:LTLong
by raigvivek
SBIN Weekly Bullish Flag Breakout | Multiple Targets to 1,144.10SBIN – Weekly Analysis ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 TECHNICAL SETUP Current Price: 998.95 (+1.44%) Timeframe: Weekly (1W) Symbol: SBIN (State Bank of India) Exchange: NSE Category: Stock / Financial Sector (PSU Banking) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 PATTERN ANALYSIS SBIN demonstrates a STRONG WEEKLY BULLISH FLAG BREAKOUT pattern: ✅ Flag Structure: Clear flagpole followed by tight consolidation around 950–980 levels ✅ Breakout Confirmation: Price decisively breaking above upper flag boundary on weekly close above 980 ✅ Support Levels: Multiple support zones identified with strong holding at 965 ✅ Volume Profile: Healthy accumulation visible with volume around 37.8M shares ✅ Momentum: Sustained bullish momentum with consistent weekly closures near upper end of candle range ✅ Risk/Reward: Well-defined multi-target setup with excellent risk-reward ratio The stock shows textbook uptrend characteristics with proper support/resistance relationships, confirming the bullish flag breakout is a continuation pattern rather than a false move. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 PRICE TARGETS (Progressive Levels) 1st Target: 1,011.85 (+1.3% from current) 2nd Target: 1,038.70 (+3.9% from current) 3rd Target: 1,065.55 (+6.6% from current) 4th Target: 1,092.40 (+9.3% from current) 5th Target: 1,119.30 (+12.0% from current) 6th Target: 1,144.10 (+14.5% from current) These progressive targets represent key resistance zones and profit-taking levels along the uptrend trajectory. Each target should be treated as a potential decision point for scaling profits while maintaining exposure to further upside. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT Entry Zone: 965.00 (Breakout confirmation point - wait for weekly close at or above this level) Stoploss: 933.00 (Weekly support - critical invalidation level) Risk/Reward Ratio: Risk (965 to 933) = 32 points Reward (965 to 1,144) = 179 points R:R Ratio = 1:5.59 (Exceptional) Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade Stoploss is placed BELOW major weekly support level to ensure proper risk containment. Consider scaling in on dips toward the 965 entry zone for better average entries. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📍 KEY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE Immediate Support: 965.00 (Breakout/Buy zone - fresh entry opportunity on dips) Secondary Support: 933.00 (Stoploss / Major weekly support - invalidation zone) Resistance 1: 1,011.85 (1st Target) Resistance 2: 1,065.55 (Mid-term resistance / 3rd Target) Major Resistance: 1,144.10 (6th Target / Final Target) Intermediate Levels: Multiple targets provide stepping stones for profit realization at each resistance level, allowing systematic position management. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔍 FUNDAMENTAL CATALYST – PSU BANKING STRENGTH SBIN benefits from strong macro tailwinds in PSU banking: ✅ Deposit Growth: Q2 FY26 whole-bank deposits growing ~9-10% YoY with robust momentum ✅ CASA Strength: CASA deposits up 8%+ YoY; CASA ratio near 39-40%, indicating sticky low-cost deposit base of ₹21+ lakh crore ✅ Asset Quality: Gross NPA near 1.7%, net NPA below 0.5% — reflecting strong credit quality and earnings visibility ✅ Dividend Support: Large-cap dividend yield provides downside cushion and income support ✅ Policy Tailwinds: PSU banking benefits from government structural support and credit growth initiatives ✅ Capital Adequacy: Strong capital position supports further credit growth and shareholder returns This macro backdrop combined with strong technical structure reinforces bullish conviction for trend-following strategies on dips. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎉 TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS Weekly uptrend remains intact with clear higher highs and higher lows Flag breakout on volume confirms institutional participation and buying strength Stock consolidating at higher levels — a classic sign of strength and accumulation Volume profile shows healthy accumulation pattern with 37.8M shares on latest candle Multiple targets suggest strong resistance zones ahead with no major gaps visible Proper risk/reward of 1:5.59 offers exceptional entry/exit structure for positional traders Support at 933 provides good risk management anchor with tight stops Stock positions itself well for continued upside exploration across multiple target levels ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 TRADING STRATEGY NOTES ✓ Wait for weekly close above 965 before committing to fresh positions ✓ Consider scaling entries — don't go all-in at once; build position gradually ✓ Trail stoploss after each target level is achieved and confirmed ✓ Take partial profits at each resistance level — especially at 1st, 3rd, and 6th targets ✓ Preserve capital: Use strict position sizing and risk management (1-2% risk per trade) ✓ Monitor weekly closes carefully — price action at week-end is crucial for momentum confirmation ✓ Watch for gaps and opening levels — sudden reversals or news-driven moves can invalidate pattern ✓ SBIN is a large-cap defensive stock with strong dividend yield — suitable for positional traders and long-term investors ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ CRITICAL DISCLAIMER 🔴 THIS IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY 🔴 THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE OR AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION This analysis: Is based on historical price patterns and technical indicators Does NOT constitute investment advice or a buy/sell recommendation Is a personal observation and technical analysis only Should NOT be the sole basis for any investment decision Stock performance depends on multiple macroeconomic factors and banking sector dynamics ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ IMPORTANT RISKS TO UNDERSTAND ✓ Past performance does NOT guarantee future results ✓ Technical patterns can FAIL and trends can reverse suddenly ✓ Market conditions can change rapidly without warning ✓ This analysis is based on historical data only ✓ Stock investments carry significant risk of loss ✓ You may lose your ENTIRE investment amount ✓ This is a technical observation, NOT a guaranteed strategy ✓ Consult a qualified financial advisor before trading ✓ Do your own independent research (DYOR) before investing ✓ Use strict position sizing and risk management always ✓ Interest rate changes can impact banking sector sentiment ✓ Regulatory changes affecting PSU banks can affect valuations ✓ Market liquidity and volatility can impact execution and slippage ✓ Economic indicators and quarterly earnings can invalidate technical patterns ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 FINAL RISK ACKNOWLEDGMENT TRADING AND INVESTING IN STOCKS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. I am NOT a financial advisor, fund manager, or investment professional. This analysis is provided for educational purposes and personal trading observation only. Past patterns do not guarantee future performance. BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION: ✓ Conduct your own thorough research and due diligence ✓ Understand macroeconomic factors affecting banking sector ✓ Check interest rate trends and RBI monetary policy outlook ✓ Verify your risk appetite and capital availability ✓ Consult with a qualified, SEBI-registered financial advisor ✓ Only invest capital you can afford to lose completely ✓ Never follow this as a guaranteed strategy or signal ✓ Understand leverage implications if using derivatives or F&O Your investment decisions are YOUR responsibility. Use proper risk management, stop losses, and position sizing always. Only risk capital you can afford to lose. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Trade responsibly. Risk management is paramount.
NSE:SBINLong
by raigvivek
CROMPTON Level Analysis: 05th - 09th JAN 2026⚒️ CROMPTON Level Analysis: 05th - 09th JAN 2026 🏃🏽‍♂️ 🚀IntraSwing Levels 5 min TF 💥Level Interpretation / description: L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". Do comment if Helpful . Do Comment for In depth Analysis. ❇️ Follow notification about periodical View 💥 Do Comment for Stock WEEKLY Level Analysis.🚀
NSE:CROMPTON
by DSKF16
BHEL – Weekly Trendline Still in ControlBHEL continues to trade in a strong uptrend on the weekly timeframe, with price respecting the rising trendline and closing near the recent highs around ₹299.50. The series of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, and the latest bullish weekly candle reinforces the strength of buyers along this trendline support As long as the stock holds above this rising trendline and the recent swing low on weekly closing basis, the bias stays positive and dips toward the trendline can be treated as buy‑on‑decline opportunities for positional traders. A clean weekly close below the trendline, however, would be an early signal of waning momentum and a cue to re‑evaluate long positions and tighten risk. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice. This is not a buy/sell/hold recommendation. Please do your own research and consult a SEBI‑registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:BHELLong
by raigvivek
2
RBL BANK - Bullish Flag & Pole Breakout (Weekly T/F)Trade Setup 📌 Stock: ASAHI INDIA GLASS ( NSE:RBLBANK ) 📌 Trend: Strong Bullish Momentum 📌 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 (Favorable) 🎯 Entry Zone: ₹261.00 (Breakout Confirmation) 🛑 Stop Loss: ₹225.00 (Weekly Closing Basis) (-5 % Risk) 🎯 Target Levels: ₹275.40 ₹289.85 ₹304.25 ₹318.65 ₹333.10 ₹347.50 ₹ 361.00 (Final Target) Technical Rationale ✅ Bullish Flag & Pole Breakout - Classic bullish pattern confirming uptrend continuation ✅ Strong Momentum - Daily RSI > 60, Weekly RSI >60 Monthly rsi >60 ✅ Volume Confirmation - Breakout volume 130.71M vs previous day's volume 24.71 ✅ Multi-Timeframe Alignment - Daily and weekly charts showing strength Key Observations • The breakout comes with significantly higher volume, validating strength • Well-defined pattern with clear price & volume breakout • Conservative stop loss at recent swing low Trade Management Strategy • Consider partial profit booking at each target level • Move stop loss to breakeven after Target 1 is achieved • Trail stop loss to protect profits as price progresses Disclaimer ⚠️ This analysis is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading in equities involves substantial risk of capital loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your risk appetite, and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any trading outcomes based on this information. What do you think? Are you watching NSE:RBLBANK for this breakout opportunity? Share your views in the comments!
NSE:RBLBANKLong
by raigvivek
2
Weekly Analysis with buy/Sell scenarios in Gold/XAUUSDAt weekly time frame Gold has shown sharp and strong reversal candle and closing below the low of previous week. This is signifying change in delivery to downside. Monday has created a strong downside side fall and remaining days went in consolidation mode. Consolidation has effect of year end as well. Price has created SIBI at daily time frame. So we can expect a pullback till SIBI and downfall till DOL (Draw on Liquidity). If price breaks new high, we can expect up move towards the levels of 4720 and 4900. We should keep eye on both the scenario. Critical notes. 1. Price may show some consolidation or direct pull back till daily SIBI. 2. If price retraced till SIBI and develop LTF entry model. This may be a good sell scenario. 3. If price breaks and sustains above SIBI and/or all-time high. We may witness further up move till the levels mentioned above. 4. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF. 5. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (1h/15m) at FVG zone. 6. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF All these combinations are signaling a high probability and ~8/10R trade scenario. Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas. Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HareeyMarketMantraah
PIIND: Price Testing a Long-Term Structural Support TrendlineThis chart highlights a well-respected long-term rising support trendline, validated multiple times over several market cycles. Each marked touch shows how price has historically reacted from this structure, confirming its relevance and strength. Currently, price has once again returned to this major structural support after a corrective phase. The decline into support has been orderly, without panic or excessive volatility, suggesting controlled participation rather than distribution. From a pure price-action perspective: Structure remains intact Support is clearly defined Risk is naturally limited near the trendline No indicators are required here. The chart itself tells the story — institutional memory exists at this level, and price behavior around this zone will be more important than any indicator reading. This is a simple, clean, and high-quality structure, best observed with patience and discipline.
NSE:PIINDLong
by siripireddyvenu
SOL set for comeback?BINANCE:SOLUSDT After falling more than 50% from its ATH. SOL seems to found its footing and seems to be set for an up-move based on the following analysis. 1) There's significant volume in 120 to 140 range as seen in the chart below. 2) Volume and footprint shows big orders on 19th Dec which was confirmed again on 26th Dec - as seen from the charts below. The volume delta also confirms this. 19th Dec 26th Dec 3) The 4H trend chart shows a drowntrend break as seen from the chart below
Long
by akchin68
INDHOTEL: Inverse Head & Shoulders within a Contracting TriangleINDHOTEL has been correcting for a prolonged period and is now showing a clear shift in structure. Price has formed an Inverse Head & Shoulders near the lower end of the range, highlighting gradual absorption of selling pressure. At the same time, the broader structure is compressing between a falling trendline (resistance) and rising lows (support), creating a contracting triangle. This phase reflects price digestion after a decline, where volatility narrows and balance builds between buyers and sellers. The recent higher low and steady acceptance above support indicate improving participation from the buy side. Overall, this is a structural recovery attempt inside a compression zone, best observed through price behavior rather than indicators.
NSE:INDHOTELLong
by siripireddyvenu
IDBI (W): Aggressive BullishTimeframe: Weekly | Scale: Logarithmic The stock has confirmed a breakout from a 2-year consolidation phase (₹67–₹107). This move is supported by the highest weekly volume in months . 📈 1. The Chart Structure (The Box Breakout) > The Consolidation: ₹67 – ₹107 range. The stock spent nearly 24 months in this zone, absorbing all supply. > The Breakout: This week's close of ₹114.85 (+13%) is a decisive "Jailbreak." - Significance: Breaking a 2-year base often leads to a trend that lasts for several quarters, not just weeks. 📊 2. Volume & Indicators > Volume Ignition: The 174.74 Million volume is an "Institutional Stamp." It confirms that "Smart Money" is entering to ride the privatization/growth story. > RSI: Rising in all timeframes. The Monthly RSI crossing 60 is a "Super Bullish" signal, indicating the start of a long-term momentum phase. 🎯 3. Future Scenarios & Key Levels The stock is now facing its final "Boss Level" resistance. > 🐂 Bullish Target (The Blue Sky): - The Hurdle: ₹115 – ₹120 . This is a historical pivot. The stock closed right at the edge of this zone. - The Trigger: A weekly close above ₹120 . - Target 1: ₹135 . - Target 2: ₹147 . > 🛡️ Support (The "Must Hold"): - Immediate Support: ₹107. The breakout level must now act as a rigid floor (Polarity Principle). - Stop Loss: A weekly close below ₹100 would imply the breakout was a "Bull Trap." Conclusion This is a Grade A Turnaround Setup . > Refinement: The stock has cleared the Consolidation (107) but is testing the Historical Resistance (115-120) . > Strategy: The volume suggests the resistance at 120 will likely break. Buy on dips to ₹108-110 or wait for a clear close above ₹120 to go full throttle.
NSE:IDBILong
by Learn_with_Pth0mas
Torrent Power Ltd Bullish viewTorrent Power has created a 5%+ move followed by change in trend. The stock has closed above EMA21/50 marking it as a bullish sign. With such change in trend there can be 2 scenarios which can exist. Scenarios1: The stock retraces to the demand zome formed at 1318 levels. In such a retracement going long would be a opportunity. Scenario 2: A small daily inside candle if formed on the daily ( inside candle meaning a smaller range candle which has a high low with the range of previous candle), can be an opportunity for break out.
NSE:TORNTPOWERLong
by thesailortraderl