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Supercycle 2025: Metals, Energy, and PricesIntroduction The global commodities market is experiencing a significant transformation in 2025, characterized by a resurgence in metal and energy prices. This phenomenon, often referred to as a "commodity supercycle," is driven by a confluence of factors including the energy transition, geopolitical tensions, and structural supply constraints. Understanding the dynamics of this supercycle is crucial for investors, policymakers, and industry stakeholders. 1. Understanding the Commodity Supercycle Definition and Historical Context A commodity supercycle refers to an extended period during which commodity prices remain well above their long-term trend, typically lasting several years or even decades. Historically, such supercycles have been driven by factors like industrialization, technological advancements, and shifts in global demand. Current Drivers In 2025, the supercycle is primarily fueled by: Energy Transition: The global shift towards renewable energy sources is increasing demand for metals like copper, lithium, and nickel. Geopolitical Instability: Conflicts and trade tensions are disrupting supply chains, leading to price volatility. Supply Constraints: Limited investments in mining and energy infrastructure over the past decade are leading to supply shortages. 2. Metals: The Backbone of the Supercycle Copper Copper is at the forefront of the current supercycle. Its demand is surging due to its essential role in electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy systems, and grid infrastructure. In 2025, copper prices have climbed to near-record levels, driven by a complex interplay of surging demand and significant supply disruptions. Analysts project a 30% increase in copper demand by 2040. Lithium and Nickel Lithium and nickel are critical for battery production. The rise of EVs and energy storage solutions is propelling their demand. However, supply is struggling to keep pace, leading to price increases. Gold Gold has emerged as a safe haven amid economic uncertainties. In October 2025, gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, marking a 53% increase year-to-date. This rally is attributed to factors like anticipated interest rate cuts, a weak U.S. dollar, and geopolitical instability. 3. Energy: The Fuel of the Supercycle Oil The energy sector is witnessing a paradox. While global oil production is at record highs, oversupply concerns are leading to price declines. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts U.S. oil production to reach 13.53 million barrels per day in 2025, yet prices are expected to average $65 per barrel, down about 15% from the previous year. Natural Gas Natural gas prices are experiencing volatility due to fluctuating demand and supply disruptions. The transition to cleaner energy sources is also impacting its long-term outlook. Renewable Energy Investments in renewable energy infrastructure are driving demand for materials like steel, aluminum, and rare earth elements. The shift towards a materials-intensive energy system is reshaping global commodity markets. 4. Implications for Investors and Policymakers Investment Opportunities Metals and Mining Stocks: Companies like Tata Steel and Hindalco are benefiting from rising metal prices and increased demand. Energy Infrastructure: Investments in renewable energy projects and related infrastructure are poised for growth. Commodity ETFs: Funds like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and United States Oil Fund (USO) offer exposure to commodity markets. Policy Considerations Supply Chain Resilience: Policymakers must address vulnerabilities in commodity supply chains, especially concerning critical minerals. Sustainable Mining Practices: Encouraging environmentally responsible mining can mitigate the ecological impact of increased extraction activities. Energy Transition Strategies: Developing comprehensive plans for transitioning to renewable energy can ensure energy security and economic stability. 5. Conclusion The commodity supercycle of 2025 presents both challenges and opportunities. While rising prices can benefit producers and investors, they also underscore the need for strategic planning and investment in sustainable practices. As the world continues its transition towards cleaner energy, the dynamics of commodity markets will play a pivotal role in shaping the global economic landscape.
Education
by TechnicalExpress
Trends in the Equity Market1. Rise of Retail Participation One of the most significant trends in recent years has been the surge of retail investors in the equity market. Traditionally dominated by institutional players, retail participation has grown due to: Easy access through online trading platforms – Apps like Zerodha, Upstox, and Groww in India, and Robinhood in the US, have democratized investing. Low brokerage fees and fractional investing – Small investors can now invest with minimal capital, diversifying their portfolios effectively. Social media and community-driven investing – Platforms like Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube have fueled investment communities, leading to phenomena like meme stocks and coordinated retail rallies. Impact: Retail participation increases market liquidity, adds volatility in certain stocks, and changes market sentiment faster than ever. 2. Technology-Driven Trading Technological advancements have reshaped equity market operations, giving rise to new trading strategies: Algorithmic trading: High-frequency trading (HFT) leverages algorithms to execute trades in milliseconds, impacting liquidity and price efficiency. AI and machine learning: Predictive analytics and AI-driven stock recommendations help investors make data-backed decisions. Blockchain and tokenized assets: Decentralized finance (DeFi) introduces tokenized stocks and fractional ownership, expanding access. Impact: Technology accelerates decision-making, increases efficiency, and reduces human bias, but can also amplify sudden market moves during high volatility periods. 3. Sectoral Shifts and Investment Preferences Equity markets evolve in response to macroeconomic cycles and technological innovation. Current sectoral trends include: Technology and software: Cloud computing, AI, and fintech dominate investor attention. Green energy and ESG: Renewable energy, electric vehicles, and ESG-compliant companies attract sustainable investment funds. Consumer and healthcare: As disposable incomes rise and aging populations expand, consumer staples and healthcare continue to see robust growth. Impact: Understanding sectoral shifts is crucial for portfolio diversification and identifying growth opportunities. 4. Global Influences on Domestic Markets Equity markets no longer operate in isolation. Global factors significantly affect domestic equities: Interest rate movements: Central bank policies in major economies influence capital flows and risk appetite. Geopolitical developments: Conflicts, trade agreements, and sanctions can trigger sector-specific volatility. Global economic cycles: Inflation, recessions, or commodity price swings can reshape equity valuations worldwide. Impact: Investors must adopt a global perspective and hedge against systemic risks to protect portfolios. 5. Increased Focus on ESG Investing Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing has moved from niche to mainstream: Companies demonstrating strong ESG metrics often enjoy higher valuation premiums. ESG-focused funds attract both retail and institutional money. Regulatory frameworks in regions like Europe and India are increasingly mandating ESG disclosures. Impact: ESG considerations now influence stock selection, corporate behavior, and long-term market trends. 6. Volatility and Market Sentiment Equity markets are inherently volatile, but recent trends have amplified sentiment-driven fluctuations: Behavioral finance influence: Fear, greed, and herd behavior can cause sudden price swings. Events-driven volatility: Earnings surprises, policy changes, or economic shocks affect short-term trading patterns. Use of derivatives: Options and futures increase market leverage, influencing volatility patterns. Impact: Investors must combine technical analysis with market sentiment to navigate swings effectively. 7. Rise of Passive Investing and ETFs Another major trend is the increasing dominance of passive investing: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and index funds attract inflows due to low costs and broad market exposure. Passive strategies reduce the influence of individual stock picking, shifting markets toward index-driven movements. Institutional adoption of passive strategies has altered liquidity and valuation dynamics. Impact: Passive investing has stabilized long-term returns but can lead to concentrated risk during market downturns. 8. Regulatory and Policy Trends Government regulations play a critical role in shaping equity markets: Capital market reforms: Simplified IPO processes, demat accounts, and trading technology have encouraged participation. Tax incentives: Policies like long-term capital gains tax reforms influence investor behavior. Global compliance: Regulations like MiFID II in Europe and SEBI guidelines in India ensure transparency and protect investors. Impact: Regulatory trends influence market confidence, compliance costs, and investment strategies. 9. Market Integration and Cross-Border Investing Investors increasingly diversify across geographies: Mutual funds, global ETFs, and foreign portfolio investments enable exposure to international equities. Correlation between global markets has increased; for instance, US Federal Reserve decisions affect Indian and Asian equities. Currency fluctuations now directly impact returns for foreign investors. Impact: Cross-border investing provides diversification but introduces currency and geopolitical risks. 10. Emerging Technologies and AI in Equity Analysis The integration of AI and Big Data is transforming how equity markets operate: Predictive analytics: Forecasting earnings, detecting anomalies, and assessing risk in real time. Natural Language Processing (NLP): Analyzing news, earnings calls, and social media sentiment to predict market reactions. Robo-advisors: Automated portfolio management using AI-driven insights. Impact: AI reduces human error, enhances research efficiency, and allows more informed investment decisions. 11. Behavioral and Social Media Influences Equity markets are increasingly influenced by social media trends: Platforms like Reddit’s WallStreetBets can cause rapid price movements. Viral investment stories often impact stocks without fundamental changes. Public perception, amplified by social media, now drives trading behavior alongside traditional financial metrics. Impact: Social-driven market movements highlight the importance of monitoring both fundamentals and sentiment indicators. 12. Future Outlook The equity market continues to evolve: Integration of technology and finance: AI, blockchain, and algorithmic trading will define market structure. Sustainable investing: ESG and impact investing will guide corporate and investor decisions. Global interconnectivity: Investors will increasingly need to monitor global macro trends, interest rates, and geopolitical developments. Conclusion: Understanding trends in the equity market is crucial for successful investing. Retail participation, technological innovation, ESG focus, and global integration are reshaping how markets operate. Investors who adapt to these trends can position themselves for long-term growth while managing volatility and risk.
BSE:SENSEXEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Algorithmic AI Trading SystemIntroduction Algorithmic AI trading systems are transforming the financial markets by combining the power of algorithms, artificial intelligence (AI), and big data to make trading more efficient, precise, and profitable. Traditional trading relied heavily on human intuition and manual execution, which was slower and prone to errors. In contrast, AI-powered trading systems leverage complex mathematical models, machine learning, and real-time data analysis to execute trades automatically, often outperforming human traders in speed and accuracy. The integration of AI in algorithmic trading has become crucial for institutions, hedge funds, and retail traders seeking competitive advantages in highly volatile and liquid markets. 1. Understanding Algorithmic Trading Algorithmic trading, often called algo-trading, uses predefined rules and mathematical models to execute trades automatically. These rules are designed based on market data such as price, volume, and timing. The main features include: Speed: Algorithms can execute orders in milliseconds, capitalizing on short-lived market opportunities. Accuracy: Reduces human errors in execution, ensuring trades occur exactly as planned. Cost Efficiency: Automation lowers operational costs and reduces slippage in high-frequency trades. Types of Algorithmic Trading Strategies Trend-Following Algorithms: Identify and follow market trends to generate profits. Mean Reversion Algorithms: Trade based on the assumption that prices will return to their historical average. Statistical Arbitrage: Exploit price inefficiencies between correlated assets. High-Frequency Trading (HFT): Leverages milliseconds-level execution speed for arbitrage or market making. While these strategies are effective, AI enhances them by incorporating machine learning and predictive analytics to adapt to changing market conditions. 2. Role of Artificial Intelligence in Trading Artificial intelligence brings adaptability, predictive power, and self-learning capabilities to algorithmic trading. AI in trading generally involves: Machine Learning (ML): Algorithms learn from historical and real-time data to predict future price movements. Natural Language Processing (NLP): Analyzes news, earnings reports, and social media sentiment to inform trades. Deep Learning: Identifies complex non-linear patterns in market data that traditional models might miss. AI Applications in Trading Predictive Analytics: AI models forecast asset price movements and volatility based on historical data. Sentiment Analysis: NLP models assess market sentiment from financial news, tweets, or analyst reports. Risk Management: AI continuously monitors market exposure, portfolio risks, and liquidity constraints. Trade Execution Optimization: Machine learning adjusts order execution to minimize slippage and transaction costs. By combining AI with algorithms, trading systems move from rule-based automation to adaptive intelligence, enabling smarter and faster decision-making. 3. Architecture of an AI Trading System A robust AI trading system typically consists of four key components: Data Acquisition Layer: Gathers structured (price, volume) and unstructured data (news, social media). Sources include market feeds, APIs, historical databases, and alternative datasets like satellite imagery or economic indicators. Data Processing & Feature Engineering: Cleans, normalizes, and transforms raw data into meaningful inputs for AI models. Feature engineering is critical to highlight relevant signals for price prediction. AI Modeling Layer: Machine learning models such as Random Forests, Gradient Boosting, or LSTM neural networks predict price movements or detect anomalies. Reinforcement learning can be used to optimize trading strategies over time based on rewards and penalties. Execution & Monitoring Layer: Converts AI-generated signals into actionable trades using low-latency order execution engines. Continuously monitors market conditions, system performance, and risk exposures. 4. Benefits of Algorithmic AI Trading Speed and Efficiency: AI systems process vast datasets and execute trades far faster than humans. 24/7 Market Monitoring: AI can continuously monitor multiple markets without fatigue. Data-Driven Decisions: Eliminates emotional bias from trading, relying on objective, statistical analysis. Adaptive Strategies: Machine learning allows strategies to evolve with changing market dynamics. Risk Minimization: Predictive models and real-time monitoring help prevent major losses. 5. Challenges and Risks Despite its advantages, algorithmic AI trading comes with risks: Overfitting: AI models trained on historical data may fail in live market conditions. Market Impact: High-frequency trades may inadvertently affect market prices. Data Quality Issues: Inaccurate or incomplete data can lead to wrong trading decisions. Cybersecurity Risks: AI systems are vulnerable to hacking or manipulation. Regulatory Compliance: Algorithmic and AI-driven trades are under strict regulatory scrutiny in many markets. Traders must balance innovation with caution, ensuring robust risk management and compliance protocols. 6. Popular AI Trading Strategies Reinforcement Learning for Portfolio Optimization: AI agents learn to maximize portfolio returns while minimizing risk using reward-based learning. Sentiment-Based Trading: NLP algorithms analyze news and social media sentiment to predict price trends. Algorithmic Arbitrage: AI identifies temporary price discrepancies across exchanges for profit. Predictive Modeling for Volatility: AI forecasts market volatility, enabling traders to hedge positions effectively. Hybrid Models: Combines technical indicators, fundamental data, and sentiment analysis for holistic decision-making. 7. Case Studies and Real-World Applications Hedge Funds and Investment Banks: Firms like Renaissance Technologies and Goldman Sachs use AI-driven strategies to outperform traditional market approaches. Retail Trading Platforms: AI-powered trading bots for retail investors provide automated signal generation and trade execution. Cryptocurrency Markets: AI systems exploit the high volatility of crypto markets to generate consistent returns. Alternative Data Utilization: AI can analyze satellite imagery, weather data, or shipping patterns to predict commodity prices or stock movements. 8. The Future of AI in Trading The AI trading landscape is evolving rapidly: Explainable AI: Traders demand transparency in AI-driven decisions to trust automated systems. Cross-Asset Integration: AI systems will increasingly manage multi-asset portfolios, including stocks, crypto, and derivatives. Quantum Computing: May accelerate AI algorithms, enabling near-instantaneous market analysis. Regulatory Evolution: Regulators are developing frameworks to monitor and manage AI-driven trading risks. The future points toward AI-driven systems that are smarter, faster, more adaptive, and capable of operating across global markets seamlessly. Conclusion Algorithmic AI trading systems represent a paradigm shift in financial markets. By combining computational speed, adaptive intelligence, and vast data processing capabilities, these systems are setting new benchmarks for efficiency, profitability, and risk management. While challenges like overfitting, cybersecurity risks, and regulatory hurdles exist, the potential benefits for investors and institutions are immense. AI in trading is not just about automation; it is about building systems that think, learn, and adapt—ushering in a new era where data-driven intelligence shapes the future of finance.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Pondy Oxides – Breakout Retest & Ready for Next Leg UpPondy Oxides has broken out above its long-term resistance zone around 1,200–1,250, and after a perfect retest, it’s showing renewed strength. The recent strong bullish candle confirms demand returning at support. Weekly structure remains intact with trend continuation potential. 📊 Swing Trade Plan Entry: Above 1,360 (on closing or breakout confirmation) Stop Loss: 5% below entry or as per your risk tolerance Targets: 🎯 1,500 / 1,600 / 1,700 View: As long as price sustains above the breakout zone, the stock looks poised for a fresh move higher with strong momentum buildup.
NSE:POCLLong
by krunal_patadia95
XAUUSD (Gold) Trading Ideathis is for educational purpose only it clearly explains how to handle 2-point stop-loss and retry logic (max 3–4 times) for automation or manual trading Wait for a green candle close above the 4088 level before entering. Confirm the breakout with strong volume support. The green line acts as your entry trigger zone. Entry Level: 4088 (Green Line) Exit Level: 4151 (Red Line) Stop-Loss: 2 points Max Attempts: 3–4 times per setup The red line (4151) is the final exit target. Keep a tight 2-point stop loss for controlled risk. Rejection may happen 2–3 times near the entry zone — stay patient. Avoid early entries before confirmation. Watch for volume expansion during breakout candles. Use 30-minute time frame for accuracy and clarity. Once confirmed, ride the move toward the 100% level at 4117. Partial profit booking is advised near 4117 zone. Move SL to cost after price closes above 4100. Avoid trading if candle closes below 4088 again. The momentum remains bullish as long as price stays above 4088. Red candle rejection below entry zone means wait again for setup. Don’t chase enter only after a confirmed breakout. Keep your chart clean and focus on price + volume behavior. Plan your trade before execution , no impulsive entries. Respect SL — discipline ensures long-term success. Always analyze candle behavior near major levels before deciding. Enter on candle close above 4088 with volume confirmation. SL: 2 points below entry. Targets: 4117 (first), 4151 (final). Expect 2–3 rejections — wait for confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Powerniftypro
"Bull Flag on the cards"???# NIFTY FUTURES - Short-term Consolidation Expected 📉 **Current Price:** 25,220 | **Change:** -1.00 (-0.00%) --- ## 🎯 ANALYSIS OVERVIEW **Timeframe:** Next 2-3 days only **Bias:** Short-term BEARISH (Contra view) **Larger Trend:** BULLISH (Target 26,000+) --- ## 📊 TECHNICAL SETUP ### Pattern Identified: Rising Wedge (Bearish) The chart shows a clear rising wedge formation that has reached its apex. This pattern typically resolves with a breakdown. ### Key Observations: - ⚠️ **AVWAPs turning flat** - Loss of bullish momentum - 🔴 **Overhead resistance zone** - 25,360 acting as ceiling - 📉 **Wedge breakdown in progress** - Price rejecting upper boundary - 📊 **Volume declining** into the apex --- ## 🎯 KEY LEVELS ### Resistance Zones: - **25,240-25,260** - Immediate resistance - **25,360** - Strong overhead resistance (brown line) ### Support Zones: - **25,162** - First support (AVWAP) - **25,136-25,117** - Critical support cluster - **24,988** - Deeper test target - **25,000-25,050** - Strong bounce zone --- ## 📈 EXPECTED PATH (Next 2-3 Days) ### Scenario 1: Consolidation/Pullback (Base Case) 1. Rejection from 25,240-25,260 zone 2. Pullback to test 25,160-25,117 support 3. Possible deeper test to 24,988-25,000 4. Consolidation range: **25,050-25,220** ### Scenario 2: Breakout (Invalidation) - Break and close above **25,240** with volume - If this happens, **IGNORE this view** - Continue with bullish momentum --- ## 💡 TRADING STRATEGY ### For Bears (Short-term): - **Entry:** On rejection at 25,240-25,260 - **Target 1:** 25,160 - **Target 2:** 25,117 - **Target 3:** 24,988 - **Stop Loss:** 25,280 ### For Bulls (Buy the Dip): - **Wait for:** 25,000-25,050 zone - **Reason:** Better risk-reward for 26K+ target - **This consolidation = Fresh entry opportunity** --- ## ⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES 1. **This is a CONTRA view** - Markets are in bullish phase 2. **Short-term only** (2-3 days) - Not a trend reversal 3. **Invalidation:** Break above yesterday's high 4. **Bigger picture:** Still bullish for 26,000+ breakout 5. **Purpose:** Healthy consolidation to set up next leg up --- ## 🔔 RISK MANAGEMENT - This is counter-trend trading - **Keep positions small** - Honor stop losses strictly - If market breaks 25,240, exit immediately - Don't fight the larger bullish trend --- ## 📌 CONCLUSION Looking for a **2-3 day consolidation/minor correction** to 25,050-25,160 zone before the next rally toward 26,000+. This would create a healthier base and better entry point for longs. **Positionally still BULLISH** - This is just short-term profit booking/consolidation phase. --- *Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.* chill
NSE:NIFTY1!Short
by kiran-posani
Gold upmove will continue until US shutdown settlement news comeGood upside move will continue, levels given on chart . How My Harmonic pattern projection Indicator work is explained below : Recent High or Low : D-0% is our recent low or high Profit booking zone ( Early / Risky entry) : D 13.2% -D 16.1 % is range if break them profit booking start on uptrend or downtrend but only profit booking, trend not changed SL reversal zone (Safe entry ) : SL 23.1% and SL 25.5% is reversal zone if break then trend reverse and we can take reverse trade Target : T1, T2, T3, T4 and . Are our Target zone Any Upside or downside level will activate only if break 1st level then 2nd will be active if break 2nd then 3rd will be active. Total we have 7 important level which are support and resistance area Until , 16% not break uptrend will continue if break then profit booking will start. If break 25% then fresh downtrend will start then T1, T2,T3 will activate 1,3,5,10,15,20 minutes are short term levels. 30 minutes 60 minutes , 2 hours,3 hours, ... 1 day and 1 week chart positional and long term levels
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
$ASTR gearing up for a breakout from key Order Block!RUS:ASTR showing strong bullish continuation signs on the 4H chart. Entry Zone: 0.02567 (Bullish Order Block) Stop Loss: 0.02406 Target: 0.03177 (Liquidity Pool Above) Technical Breakdown: 🔹 Price broke out with clear bullish displacement after a period of consolidation. 🔹 Now retracing back into a key order block, offering a potential re-entry zone for continuation. 🔹 Liquidity resting above 0.03177 acts as a magnet for price — expect draw-on-liquidity play. 🔹 Market structure is still printing higher highs and higher lows, confirming bullish bias. Bias: Bullish Strategy: Order Block Re-entry (4H) Plan: Wait for confirmation at OB zone before executing longs for continuation toward liquidity target. Smart Money traders, keep this setup on radar. DYOR, NFA.
Long
by CryptoPatel
NZDJPY | Intraday Long Setup – Demand Zone Reaction StoryNZDJPY | Intraday Long Setup – Demand Zone Reaction Story 📈 After a strong upward rally, NZDJPY faced sharp rejection from the recent highs near 88.30, triggering a quick retracement. But rather than chasing the move, I waited patiently for price to approach a key demand zone, where smart money is likely waiting to accumulate again. Here’s my detailed breakdown 👇 The market has been forming higher highs and higher lows, maintaining an overall bullish structure. After the latest impulsive move upward, a retracement began — an ideal scenario for a pullback entry. The pair is now tapping into a previous consolidation zone (highlighted in green), which acted as a strong demand base before the last breakout. This level between 87.12 – 87.40 carries multiple confluences: Previous demand zone re-entry Imbalance fill area Liquidity resting below minor equal lows Bullish continuation structure in play The setup was planned on the M15 timeframe for precision entry. I’m watching for a bullish rejection candle or internal break of structure within this green zone before confirming full entry. Entry is planned near 87.35, with a protective stop-loss slightly below 87.12 to account for liquidity sweeps. The first target will be near 88.03, aligning with the recent high — and if momentum builds, the second target will aim for new highs beyond 88.30. This trade follows the core principle of Smart Money Concepts (SMC) — buy low from demand, sell high at supply. 📊 Bias: Bullish (Intraday) ⏱️ Timeframe: M15 💼 Entry: 87.35 ❌ Stop Loss: 87.12 🎯 TP1: 88.03 🎯 TP2: 88.30 As long as the price respects this demand zone, I’m expecting a healthy bounce back to retest the previous structure highs. Patience, timing, and confluence — that’s the real trader’s edge.
Long
by E_R_S
CADJPY | Intraday Short Setup – Smart Money Play in ActionAfter a strong bullish impulse, CADJPY has entered a critical supply zone where price previously showed signs of exhaustion. On the 15-minute chart, the pair formed a clear liquidity grab above the previous highs and then started showing rejection candles — an early sign of potential bearish momentum. Here’s the detailed reasoning behind my short setup 👇 After the Asian session bullish rally, price aggressively tapped into a premium zone (highlighted in green). This area aligns perfectly with a 4-hour supply zone and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent down move. The rejection wick above 109.30 confirmed that institutional players might have started distributing positions from this level. As price failed to maintain above 109.33, I marked this as a fake breakout or liquidity sweep zone, and planned my sell entry at 109.21 with a stop loss above the high at 109.33. My target is placed around 108.84, where previous liquidity rests below equal lows — a perfect place for the market to rebalance. The setup reflects a clean Smart Money Concept (SMC) trade: Liquidity grab above previous highs Entry from premium supply zone Bearish rejection candle confirmation High R:R ratio towards untested liquidity pool If the price breaks above 109.35 decisively, the setup will be invalidated, and I’ll look for fresh order blocks for a new opportunity. 📊 Bias: Bearish (Intraday) ⏱️ Timeframe: M15 🎯 Target: 108.84 ❌ Stop Loss: 109.33 💼 Entry: 109.21 This trade idea focuses on smart entry timing with controlled risk. Remember — the key is not prediction, but precision and patience.
Short
by E_R_S
AUDUSD | Intraday Long Setup – Smart Money StoryThe market has been in a strong bearish trend recently, pushing AUDUSD to test a major demand zone on the lower time frame. After a continuous drop from the premium zone (highlighted in red), price has finally tapped into the green zone of interest — a potential liquidity pool and demand base. Here’s my thought process behind this setup 👇 After observing the 15-minute chart, I noticed that price swept the previous lows, collecting liquidity below 0.6550. Immediately after the sweep, there was a clear rejection wick showing buyers stepping in with strength. This area aligns perfectly with a 4H demand imbalance zone, suggesting a possible short-term bullish retracement. I entered my long position at 0.6556, keeping my stop-loss just below the recent low (0.6535) to protect capital in case of further downside manipulation. My first target is placed around 0.6605 — a minor resistance and internal range high — and my second target is near the 4H supply zone at 0.6624 (highlighted in red), where I expect smart money to start taking profits. This setup is based on: Liquidity sweep confirmation Demand zone confluence Bullish rejection candle Favorable risk-to-reward structure I’m looking for a short-term bullish push during the intraday session. If the price breaks below 0.6530 with momentum, the setup will be invalidated and I’ll look for new opportunities. 📊 Bias: Bullish (Intraday) ⏱️ Timeframe: M15 🎯 TP1: 0.6605 🎯 TP2: 0.6624 ❌ SL: 0.6535 Remember — trading is all about timing, patience, and risk management. Let’s see how price reacts to this beautiful demand area today!
Long
by E_R_S
AUDUSD 15M IDEAFOREXCOM:AUDUSD Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied... Keep trading Hustle hard Markets can be Unpredictable, research before trading. Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!!!
Short
by Phinics
BSE - Swing Trade* **Timeframe:** Weekly * **CMP:** ₹2,231 * **Indicators used:** * **MACD:** Histogram turning toward zero (early bullish momentum) * **Parabolic SAR:** Dots above price → just flipped below (bullish reversal start) * **RSI:** Rising from oversold zone (~35–40), showing strength buildup * **Volume:** Increasing green candle volume — confirmation of accumulation phase --- ### 📈 **Technical Setup** | Parameter | Observation | Interpretation | | ----------------- | ------------------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------- | | **Trend** | Reversal from major support (~₹2,000 zone) | Base formation visible | | **MACD** | Converging lines, red bars shrinking | Momentum shifting to bulls | | **RSI** | Bounced from 35 → heading to 50 | Strength returning | | **Parabolic SAR** | Flipped below price | First buy signal confirmation | | **Target Level** | ₹3,571 | Long-term swing target (as per chart marking) | | **Stoploss** | ₹1,950 (weekly close basis) | Below recent swing low | | **Risk–Reward** | ~1:3 | Attractive for positional trade | --- ### 🎯 **Trade Plan** #### 🔹 Entry: * **Aggressive entry:** Current levels (₹2,230–₹2,250) * **Conservative entry:** On weekly close above ₹2,400 (confirmation breakout) #### 🔹 Target Zones: 1. ₹2,750 — First resistance zone (trendline + Fib retracement) 2. ₹3,100 — Mid-term swing target 3. ₹3,570 — Long-term positional target #### 🔹 Stoploss: * ₹1,950 (weekly close basis) * Trail stop to ₹2,250 once price sustains above ₹2,750 --- ### 💹 **Additional Confirmation** * Watch for **MACD line crossover** in next 1–2 candles — that will confirm continuation. * RSI breaking above 50 will add momentum. * Volume spike + SAR continuation indicates start of new leg up. --- ### 🧭 **Summary** > “BSE Ltd. is showing early signs of trend reversal from weekly support with improving momentum and SAR flip. Accumulate near ₹2,200–2,250 zone for targets up to ₹3,570 with stop below ₹1,950.”
NSE:BSELong
by Arthavidhi
The chart point towards a bearish short-term outlookOn October 8th is a large red (bearish) candle, indicating significant selling pressure during the day. The price has dropped sharply from the previous day's high, suggesting a rejection from a resistance level. A rising wedge is typically a bearish reversal pattern. The price appears to have broken down below the lower support trendline of this wedge, which is a strong bearish signal. The price is currently trading inside the Kumo (the cloud), which indicates a state of consolidation or equilibrium. A definitive break above or below the cloud would signal a clearer trend. Currently at $2.939. The price is below the Tenkan-Sen, a short-term bearish sign. Currently at $3.0214. The price is well below the Kijun-Sen, which acts as a medium-term resistance and reinforces the bearish outlook. The price was rejected near the upper Bollinger Band a couple of days ago and is now moving decisively downwards towards the middle band (20-period Simple Moving Average), which is at $2.9083. The price has already broken below this middle band, suggesting further potential downside towards the lower band around $2.7412.
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by hilmiyus
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(08/10/2025)Bank Nifty is expected to open flat near the 56,200 level after a strong rally in the previous sessions. The index has been consolidating within a narrow range, suggesting a pause before the next directional move. On the upside, a sustained move above 56,450–56,500 could trigger a bullish breakout, leading to an upside toward 56,650, 56,850, and 56,950+. A breakout above 56,950 will further strengthen the bullish momentum and may push the index toward new short-term highs. On the downside, immediate support lies around 56,050–55,950. A breakdown below this zone may lead to mild selling pressure, dragging the index toward 55,750, 55,650, and 55,550-. Overall, the sentiment remains cautiously positive. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown from the current consolidation zone before initiating fresh positions, while maintaining strict stop-loss levels.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TradZoo
Triangle Breakout Alert: Aluminium Bulls Waking Up?CMP: $2743 Aluminium is breaking out of a symmetrical triangle on weekly timeframe after months of consolidation. 📍 Breakout Zone: $2736 – $2799 📉 Support Levels: $2633 / $2543 – $2481 📈 Resistance Zones: $3170 – $3229, then $3388 🎯 Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Target: ~$3378 (+23% from CMP), which aligns closely with the major resistance zone between $3229 – $3388 . A weekly close above $2736 – $2799 could support further upside momentum. If price pulls back within the triangle , dips toward the support zone around $2633 - $2481 may be worth watching for possible reactions. 👀 Watch for price action in the coming weeks, could confirm or invalidate the breakout. #Commodities | #Aluminium | #BaseMetals | #Breakout | #ChartPattern | #SymmetricalTriangle | #TechnicalAnalysis | #PriceAction 📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It is not a buy/sell recommendation. Please do your own research before making any trading decisions.
TRADENATION:ALUMINIUMLong
by Stocks_Mario
JINDALSTEEL: Classic Breakout & Retest Setup!1. Price is rejecting from the 17years ath level acting as very strong support. 2. EMAs are also supporting the strength. 3. Overall RRR looks decent enough. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is NOT a buy/sell recommendation. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Views are personal. Please, do your due diligence before investing.⚠️ 💬 What are your thoughts on this share it in the comments below. ✌️ 🔥 Happy Trading!✅🚀
NSE:JINDALSTELLong
by SuperNova396
Federal Bank: Wave 4 Triangle Near Completion, Wave 5 AheadAfter a clean five-wave impulse from the 2020 low near ₹35.70 to the 2024 peak at ₹220, Federal Bank appears to be transitioning into a larger corrective phase. Weekly Outlook The broader structure suggests the start of a 5-3-5 zigzag correction , marked as A–B–C . Wave A is still unfolding — only Wave 4 of A appears complete, with Wave 5 expected next to finish the first leg of the correction. Once Wave 5 concludes, price could rebound toward the lower channel trendline to form Wave B, a counter-trend rally within the broader correction. Thereafter, a deeper Wave C decline may follow, potentially stretching into the ₹149–₹128 zone, which aligns with the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement range of the 2020–2024 advance. This developing structure reflects a natural pause after a long impulse cycle, with the market now transitioning into a corrective rhythm. Daily Chart Details Zooming in, the internal structure of Wave A shows a clear five-wave drop, with Wave (4) evolving as a contracting triangle pattern. The MA50 has started curling toward the MA200, hinting at a possible bearish crossover — a classical confirmation of trend transition. If price breaks below the triangle base, Wave (5) could extend toward ₹186–₹178, derived from Wave 1 projected from Wave 4’s end. The targets will be adjusted once the final (e)-wave of the triangle is confirmed, as a minor uptick remains possible. A sustained move above ₹206.39 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and delay the decline. Conclusion: Federal Bank’s structure aligns with a typical post-impulse correction, and the interplay between Elliott Wave and moving averages provides a clear framework to track this phase. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:FEDERALBNKShort
by WaveXplorer
NIFTY50 LONG SETUPNifty just broke through the 25,080 structure high with a strong impulsive move, marking a Bullish BOS after weeks of chop. Before that breakout, price swept liquidity below 24,950 — taking out equal lows — then reversed sharply. This created a textbook bullish order block at 25,045–25,070, which is perfectly aligned with the breakout point and option data support near 25,000. A controlled pullback into this zone offers a high-probability continuation trade targeting clean liquidity pockets above. 🟢 Entry Zone: 25,045 – 25,070 (1H bullish OB retest) 🛑 Stop-Loss: 24,985 🎯 Target 1: 25,250 🎯 Target 2: 25,380 📈 R:R: ≈ 1:3 to TP1 / 1:4.5+ to TP2
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Sukoonsetrade
Banknifty long setupBank Nifty just printed a clean Break of Structure above 56,150 after sweeping out liquidity near 55,700–55,800. The breakout was impulsive, leaving behind a neat bullish order block at 55,950–56,050. Institutional players often reload at this kind of OB zone before the next leg higher. The 1H structure + OB + sweep combo makes this a high-probability intraday continuation play. Trade Plan 🟢 Entry Zone: 55,950 – 56,050 (OB retest) 🛑 Stop-Loss: 55,720 (below OB & swept lows) 🎯 Target 1: 56,550 (previous high / intraday liquidity pocket) 🎯 Target 2: 56,900 (imbalance fill + next liquidity magnet) 📈 R:R: ≈ 1:3.5 to TP1 / 1:5+ to TP2 Execution Notes Wait for a controlled retrace into the OB zone — no chasing on gap-ups. Ideal entry is with confirmation wick / rejection inside OB on 5m–15m. Trail SL to breakeven after TP1 to lock in risk-free runners.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by Sukoonsetrade
Usha Martin Ltd (USHAMART)Usha Martin Ltd (NSE: USHAMART) is an established Indian company primarily engaged in manufacturing steel wires, strands, wire ropes, cords, and related accessories, with additional involvement in optical fiber cables and other telecom products. Founded in 1960 and headquartered in Kolkata, it serves key sectors like infrastructure, automotive, mining, elevators, and offshore oil & gas. As of October 2025, the stock trades around ₹450–₹462, with a market cap of approximately ₹13,800–14,000 crore. While stock investing involves risks and isn't a recommendation, here are substantiated reasons why analysts and investors might view it as a compelling buy, based on recent financials, market trends, and technical signals. Strong Financials: ₹403 Cr profit in FY25, 23% EPS growth, low debt (0.05 D/E), 14.8% ROE. Technical Breakout: Bullish patterns, support at ₹425–₹440, targets ₹500–₹590. Growth Drivers: Infrastructure, auto, EV, and telecom demand; export growth. Risks: Commodity volatility, modest sales growth (10% 5Y).
NSE:USHAMARTLong
by askbiswanath2025
Century Extrusions (D) - Breakout or Fakeout?Century Extrusions has shown a significant sign of life after a prolonged period of sideways movement. However, a critical bearish indicator is flashing a warning sign, placing the stock at a crucial crossroads. The Bullish Catalyst: A Powerful Surge After a lackluster uptrend, the stock entered a consolidation phase in December 2023 , trading within a defined range. Today's session broke this monotony with authority: - Massive Price Gain: The stock surged by +17.03% in a single session. - Volume Spike: This price surge was backed by a significant spike in trading volume, indicating strong buyer participation. - Resistance Retest: This move represents a serious attempt to break out of a persistent resistance trendline that has capped previous rallies. Supporting this bullish action, key indicators are aligned positively across Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes, with short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) in a positive crossover and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing rising momentum. If the stock can successfully breach and sustain above the immediate resistance, the path could be clear for a move towards the ₹44 level. The Bearish Warning: Waning Momentum Despite the powerful price action, a significant red flag exists. A bearish divergence is clearly visible across the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes. This occurs when the price charts higher peaks while the RSI indicator forms lower peaks, suggesting that the underlying momentum is fading despite the price surge. This divergence is a potent warning sign that the current breakout attempt may lack the strength to continue. If this signal proves true and the breakout fails, the stock could reverse course and decline towards the support level of ₹23 . Conclusion and Outlook The situation is a classic standoff between price action and momentum. The breakout is visually impressive, but the underlying bearish divergence cannot be ignored. The price action over the next few trading sessions is critical for confirmation. A decisive close above the resistance would validate the bullish breakout, while failure to hold today's gains could confirm the bearish divergence, leading to a potential downturn. Prudent analysis requires waiting for the market to reveal its true direction.
NSE:CENTEXT
by Learn_with_Pth0mas