Nifty - Where to short a Pullback?#Trendfollowing
After the craziest fall, nifty is pulling back. So where to short a pullback?
A - Bearish Flag Breakout
B - Price Percentage Change Projection
C - Traditional Price Range Method
D - Retracement Levels
Whether to short options or short futures is entirely depends as per your money management and risk appetite, but don't buy PE's expecting for a huge gain.
Which level is best to short depends on how the price is approaching a particular level. These are not touch and trade levels. So we need to watch price action before trading.
If you have any doubts about the above, do let me know in the comments.
Trendfollowing
CEAT Limited approaching breakout: BUY if closes above Rs. 995CEAT Limited, a tyre-manufacturing company is approaching breakout. Two of the other well known tyre manufacturers in India (MRF and BALKRISIND) have already given breakouts. Will this one be successful too?
Lets stop guessing, and follow the strategy used to identify others. The Pro-Breakouts strategy that I use automatically draws breakout and support lines, which result in trade signals. For more details, please refer to the website link in the signature field below.
MARUTI - BUY signal generated at Rs. 7,178After the EXIT at around Rs. 9,000 , the next BUY signal came at Rs. 7,178 . We won't be able to buy at the lowest price, won't be able to sell at highest. But will eat the meat in the middle. Just need to follow a strategy.
The Pro-Breakouts strategy that I use automatically draws breakout and support lines, which result in trade signals. For more details, please refer to the website link in the signature field below.
Sundram Fasteners - BUY signal generated @ Rs. 485Sundram Fasteners is an auto-ancillary company, with Return on Equity above 20% in last 10 years . With these type of fundamentally-sound companies, you need a strategy, to give you BUY signals with high-probability of continuing up-moves.
The Pro-Breakouts strategy that I use automatically draws breakout and support lines, which result in trade signals. For more details, please refer to the website link in the signature field below.
HOW TO EXIT ANY TRADE ? ( TATAGLOBAL BEVERAGES BREAKOUT )NSE:TATAGLOBAL
HOW TO EXIT THIS TRADE ?
THERE IS NO TARGET ON THIS TRADE ITS RATHER BASED ON TREND FOLLOWING SYSTEM .
WE HAVE TO CONTINOUSLY SHIFT OUR STOP FOLLOWING THE TREND .
FOR EVERY PRICE MOVEMENT SHIFT YOUR STOP UP UNTIL ITS BREACHED .
HOW TO FIND THE STOP ?
STOP = CMP - 2*(ATR)
FOR EXAMPLE ON THE CURRENT DAY :
CMP - 253.45
ATR - 8.3
STOP = (253.45) - 2*(8.3)
= 253.45 - 16.6
= 236.85
NOW , ON THE NEXT BAR FORMATION THE PRICE AND THE AVERAGE TRUE RANGE WILL CHANGE AND SO WILL YOUR STOP , AND THUS YOUR STOP WILL KEEP SHIFTING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TREND , NARROWING DOWN YOUR RISK AND KEEPING YOUR PROFIT SAFE .
GRASIM | Weekly Trendline defining termsStock exhibits sustained weakness in Weekly time frame. Falling Trendline holds valid and rejections have been pretty strong whenever the stock hits it.
Currently the stock has hit the Trendline again wherein we could also spot 38% FIB retracement adding strength to the resistance.
Though the above points guides us to take a strong bearish view, we need to be aware of recent higher low formed which might be an indication of Bulls putting a little fight and bear trend losing momentum. That takes us to the point where in a break below the recent rising Trendline or a break below 810 level could cancel out any weakness for Bears.
Considering the overall picture, the stock still inclines in favour of Bears and a break below 810 will only make the case stronger. Alternatively, a Weekly close above 930/950 levels might indicate a long term trend reversal in favour of Bulls.
Price Action Lesson 7: Conditions of a Perfect Shooting StarConditions of a Perfect Shooting Star:
. Body is short.
. The height of the candlestick (the difference between high and low price) is tall enough and it's more than the Daily ATR(264). The taller the Candlestick is, the stronger the Shooting Star .
. The upper shadow (also known as upper wick or tail is the distance between the high price and the close or open price, whichever is higher) should be very tall, over than 75 percent of the Daily ATR(264) is better.
. The lower shadow (also called bottom wick or tail is the distance between the low price and the close or open price, whichever is lower) is nonexistent or very short. It should be less than 25 percent of the Daily ATR(264).
. The Shooting Star with the bearish body is stronger than the one with the bullish body.
. The picture shows a perfect Shooting Star candlestick .
As seen, the height of the candlestick is tall, but the body is very short. Also, the upper shadow is very tall and the lower shadow is very short.
. The close price is lower than open price, therefore the body of this Shooting Star is bearish , and the strength is very high.
Century Ply - Also cracks 235 - 150 (Target Done)- Get a bat11:09 Hrs 8th Oct 2018
Last Price@165
150 was awesome level last week - what a fall from 235 to 150 - Can it used to get a bat
20th Aug 2018 Idea - Century Ply Above 275 - can fly else will feel shy
First Idea - Holding 224 double bottom -pushing upside for 250-260 as suggested - makes high 238 & later going below 224 - crack visible be careful
10th Sep 2018 - Ply gets the crack
Nifty - Bearish Bat PRZ - 10435 - 1045010:57 Hrs 8th Oct 2018
Last Price@10345
Harmonic Bearish Bat Can push & make it fall below day low@10200
PRZ - Potential Reversal Zone is 10435 - 10450 - If Nifty gets resistance in the PRZ shown then be ready to take sell for 10290-10200-10150
No selling trades above 10450 mark.
Nifty - Policy Push / Harmonic Push - Long Term Investors@9950Hello Friends
13:50 Hrs - 5th Oct 2018
Last Price@10410
Analysis done on spot data ( New Members)
Profile status updated@09:30Hrs – 5th Oct 2018
Careful Long Term Investors - Traders can expect a short term bounce 10500 & Above.
Short Term Trading Strategy - Bullish Harmonic Crab Pattern
Look to buy the bullish crab and expect short term bounce in next week as suggested below / over the video.
Risky Traders
You can buy if it sustains and holds in the range 10400-10425 for below mentioned targets. Do not consider this pattern below 10390-10400 zone as suggested over the video.
Safe Traders
You can buy above 10500 – Next week after taking rest over the weekend.
Targets
Target 1 - 10675-10700 zone
Target 2 - Only Above 10750 if holds then 10825 -10850
Target 3 - Above 10850 for Destiny & Demand Zone 10900-10925
Target 4 - Above 10925 for 11000 – 11035
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Long Term Trading Strategy - 3 months to 6 months prior heading into 2019 Lok Sabha Elections
Taking out critical zone 10500-10550 –we expect deeper corrections in coming few months & heading into early 2019.
Key Support Zone
9950-10000
Critical Support Zone
7900-8100
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Excited to share all the updates at one place & how fortunate to sell all the tops in 11760 to 10500-10550 critical zone as of 5th Oct 2018.
New Followers - All previous ideas & excitement which we shared together
Catching The Top at 11760’s
Catching the Top at 11600’s
Catching the Bounce 11300 to 11475 & Taking Rest at 11500
800 Points Target Reached at 10900-10925
Market opens – Magic Starts - getting the bounce from 10900-10925 zone
Destiny or Demand Zone 10900-10925
Destiny or Demand Zone Repeats 10900-10925
Do support & motivate me to come up with more such videos.
Next we cover most important stock update – Century Ply – Expected fall from 230-240’s to 135-155 zone.
CNXIT & TradingView-Both in Drivers Seat -9920 to 15000!!! 05:45 Hrs - 21st Aug 2018
Last Price@14996
Hello All,
Good Morning!
TradingView in Drivers Seat - Exciting!
Rev your engines! You might notice a familiar name for two races during the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, because TradingView will be sponsoring cars No. 51 and No. 52.
The first race will be held on Saturday, August 18, at the Bristol Motor Speedway for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. The green flag is scheduled for 7:43 p.m. ET with television coverage starting at 6 p.m. on NBCSN.
Reed Sorenson will drive No. 51, the 2018 Chevrolet Camaro. Sorenson has been driving since he was six years old and began his career as a full-time driver in 2003.
The second race takes place on Sunday, September 2, at the Darlington Raceway for the Bojangles’ Southern 500. Driver intros start at 5:20 p.m. ET on NBCS.
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CNXIT - In Driving Seat -That’s 300kph, not 100! (You can click the ideas)
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Tech Mahindra - Can double bottom hold at 453- Click the Idea to read
Tech Mahindra - Act like Lawyer -Turning from 442
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Infosys - 900 to 1400
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CNX IT - The Driver
What a rally from 9500-9600 as suggested -has up -up & away started....... reached highs at 15150 as on Aug 2018
30th Nov 2016 - W = Y = Z is equation solved
18th Jan 2017 - Revisiting The Sell Setup
12th Feb 2017 - Has the Up-Up & Away started at 9500-9600 zone
A great opportunity to buy in EOSUSDTechnical analysis:
. EOS/DOLLAR is in a downtrend and the beginning of uptrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 37.
. While the RSI and the price downtrend in the Daily chart are not broken, bearish wave in price would continue .
Trading suggestion:
. There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support zone (4.47 to 3.04). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (4.47)
Ending of entry zone (3.04)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Buy zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Bullish Engulfing" , "Hammer" or "Valley" in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of the reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and the special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 5.78
TP2= @ 6.91
TP3= @ 7.78
TP4= @ 8.63
TP5= @ 10.02
TP6= @ 11.38
TP7= @ 14.80
TP8= @ 17.06
TP9= @ 19.00
TP10= @ 23.03
TP11= Free
buy KPIT at 285 half qty and avg at 275 with sl 260 for trgt 300NSE:KPIT is trading around its 20DEMA at 285... i have purchased half qty at 285.40 ... will average at 275 (50DEMA) with stop loss of 260 (below previous swing low)... target is 300++ within a month
A trading opportunity to sell in EURAUDMidterm Forecast:
There is no trend in the market and the price is in a range bound, but we forecast a downtrend wave below 1.6190 would begin in Midterm.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the resistance #1 at 62 and it prevented the price from more gains.
A trough is formed in the daily chart at 1.5425 on 06/14/2018, so more gains to resistance(s) 1.5825, 1.5890, 1.6040 and maximum to Major Resistance (1.6190) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if the price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 53.
Trading suggestion:
There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Sell Zone (1.5825 to 1.5890). if so, we would set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (1.5825)
Ending of entry zone (1.5890)
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.5730
TP2= @ 1.5620
TP3= @ 1.5525
TP4= @ 1.5425
TP5= @ 1.5275
TP6= @ 1.5075
TP7= @ 1.4910
TP8= @ 1.4605
TP9= @ 1.4445
TP10= @ 1.4040
TP11= @ 1.3675
TP12= @ 1.2225
TP13= @ 1.1600
TP14= Free
Weekly analysis: another opportunity To Sell in NZDUSDNew trading suggestion:
*The price is in a downtrend and we forecast the downtrend would continue.
*There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested resistance line(0.6820). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Resistance line" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Shooting Star" or "Peak" , in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Midterm forecast:
0.6820 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
Technical analysis:
. While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
. A peak is formed in the daily chart at 0.6920 on 06/25/2018, so more losses to support(s) 0.6620, 0.6430, 0.6245 and more depths is expected.
. Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as a dynamic resistance against more gains.
. Relative strength index (RSI) is 30.
Trade Setup:
We opened 13 SELL trade(s) @ 0.7351 (day close price) based on 'Two-day reversal candle ( Shooting Star )' at 2018.04.13
Total Profit: 5635 pip
Closed trade(s): 1561 pip Profit
Open trade(s): 4074 pip Profit
Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 0.7305 touched at 2018.04.18 with 46 pip Profit.
TP2 @ 0.7240 touched at 2018.04.20 with 111 pip Profit.
TP3 @ 0.7175 touched at 2018.04.23 with 176 pip Profit.
TP4 @ 0.7055 touched at 2018.04.27 with 296 pip Profit.
TP5 @ 0.6950 touched at 2018.05.09 with 401 pip Profit.
TP6 @ 0.6820 touched at 2018.06.27 with 531 pip Profit.
46 + 111 + 176 + 296 + 401 + 531 = 1561 pip
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 0.7351(open price) - 0.6769(current price) = 582 pip
7 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 582 x 7 = 4074 pip
Open Profit:
TP7= @0.6620
TP8= @0.6430
TP9= @0.6245
TP10= @0.5930
TP11= @0.5485
TP12= @0.4900
TP13= Free
There is a good opportunity to buy in CHFJPYMidterm forecast:
There is no trend in the market and the price is in a range bound, but we forecast an uptrend wave above 108.35 would begin in Midterm.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the support #1 at 26 and it prevented price from more losses.
The RSI downtrend #2 is broken, so the probability of beginning of uptrend is increased.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 108.50 on 05/08/2018, so more gains to resistance(s) 111.55, 112.25, 113.40 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index ( RSI ) is 61.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Buy Zone (110.30 to 108.35), if so, we would set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (110.30)
Ending of entry zone (108.35)
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 111.55
TP2= @ 112.25
TP3= @ 113.40
TP4= @ 114.70
TP5= @ 116.45
TP6= @ 117.35
TP7= @ 118.55
TP8= @ 122.00
TP9= @ 125.80
TP10= @ 134.60
TP11= Free
A new trading opportunity to buy in Ark. Don't miss it....Technical analysis:
. ARK/DOLLAR is in a Range Bound and Beginning of uptrend is expected.
. The price is below the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic resistance.
. The RSI is at 43.
Trading suggestion:
There is a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support zone (2.88 to 1.77). if so, traders can set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
. Beginning of entry zone (2.88)
. Ending of entry zone (1.77)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Buy zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Bullish Engulfing" , "Hammer" or "Valley" , in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and the special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 4.05
TP2= @ 4.90
TP3= @ 5.45
TP4= @ 7.36
TP5= @ 9.13
TP6= @ 11.41
TP7= Free
A new opportunity to Sell in EURJPY ...New trading suggestion:
Price may also reach to suggested resistance line (133.50). if so, traders can set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Midterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 133.50, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 128.95 breaks.
If the resistance at 133.50 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Price may also reach 133.50, if the price reaches this level, we may enter by Daily-Trading-Opportunities, this entry depends on personal strategies.
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in the daily chart at 133.50 on 04/24/2018, so more losses to support(s) 129.65, 128.20, 126.80 and more depths is expected.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as a dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 36.
Total Profit: 3566 pip
Closed trade(s): 766 pip Profit
Open trade(s): 2800 pip Profit
Trade Setup:
We opened 11 SELL trade(s) @ 134.06 (day close price) based on 'Peak' at 2018.02.07 signaled by our "Daily Trading Opportunity"
Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 133.25 touched at 2018.02.08 with 82 pip Profit.
TP2 @ 131.65 touched at 2018.02.14 with 242 pip Profit.
TP3 @ 129.65 touched at 2018.03.02 with 442 pip Profit.
82 + 242 + 442 = 766 pip
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 134.06(open price) - 130.57(current price) = 350 pip
8 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 350 x 8 = 2800 pip
Take Profits:
TP4= @ 128.20
TP5= @ 126.80
TP6= @ 124.10
TP7= @ 122.30
TP8= @ 118.45
TP9= @ 114.85
TP10= @ 111.25
TP11= Free
A Second Chance to Buy in CHFJPY ...New trading suggestion:
*The price is in an up trend and we forecast the uptrend would continue.
* There is still possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (0.9815), if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
Midterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 0.9815, continuation of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 1.0132 breaks.
If the support at 0.9815 is broken, the short-term forecast -continuation of uptrend- will be invalid.
Price may also reach 0.9815, if price reaches this level, we may enter by Daily-Trading-Opportunities, this entry depends on personal strategies.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 0.9815 is broken.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 0.9535 on 04/10/2018, so more gains to resistance(s) 1.0100, 1.0325, 1.0630 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 84.
Total Profit: 4748 pip
Closed trade(s): 2576 pip Profit
Open trade(s): 2172 pip Profit
Trade Setup:
We opened 10 BUY trade(s) @ 0.9272 (day close price) based on 'Two Day Reversal Candle (Hammer)' at 2018.02.16 signaled by our "Daily Trading Opportunity"
Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 0.9355 touched at 2018.02.20 with 83 pip Profit.
TP2 @ 0.9440 touched at 2018.02.28 with 168 pip Profit.
TP3 @ 0.9520 touched at 2018.03.09 with 248 pip Profit.
TP4 @ 0.9660 touched at 2018.04.17 with 388 pip Profit.
TP5 @ 0.9735 touched at 2018.04.20 with 463 pip Profit.
TP6 @ 0.9815 touched at 2018.04.25 with 543 pip Profit.
TP7 @ 0.9955 touched at 2018.05.01 with 683 pip Profit.
83 + 168 + 248 + 388 + 463 + 543 + 683 = 2576 pip
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 0.9996(current price) - 0.9272(open price) = 724 pip
3 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 724 x 3 = 2172 pip
Take Profits:
TP8= @ 1.0100
TP9= @ 1.0325
TP10= @ Free
A Second Chance to Sell in CHFJPY ...New trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested resistance line (110.30), if so, traders can set orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Midterm forecast:
While the level 110.30 is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
Price may also reach 110.30, if price reaches this level, we may enter by Daily-Trading-Opportunities, this entry depends on personal strategies.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 110.30 is broken.
Trade Setup:
We opened 9 SELL trade(s) @ 115.75 (day close price) based on 'Two-day reversal candle ( 2-day Shooting Star )' at 02.09.2018 signaled by our "Daily Trading Opportunity".
Total Profit: 5240pip
Closed trade(s): 1130 pip Profit
Open trade(s): 4110 pip Profit
Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 113.40 touched at 02.28.2018 with 235 pip Profit.
TP2 @ 112.25 touched at 03.07.2018 with 350 pip Profit.
TP3 @ 110.30 touched at 04.20.2018 with 545 pip Profit.
235 + 350 + 545 = 1130
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 115.75(open price) - 108.90(current price) = 685 pip
6 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 685 x 6 = 4110 pip
Take Profits:
TP4= @ 108.35
TP5= @ 105.90
TP6= @ 104.15
TP7= @ 101.80
TP8= @ 100.00
TP9= @ Free