Best to exit this counterUPL CMP 772
Elliott- The entire rally post the 2020 correction is corrective in rally. The current rally is also corrective in nature. The stock has reached its previous highs and is a natural resistance. To me a fresh set of three wave correction should start from here. The correction should be deep.
Fib- the stock respecting zones drawn from top and bottom is another indication that the stock is going no where. In technical terms its moving symmetrically. Hence not good for investments.
Conclusion - this is an opportunity to exit this stock. The stock is not expanding and hence will not give any positive returns. Hence best to take a graceful exit.
Community ideas
Nifty Price Action Analysis for Jan 2026Date: 25-Dec-2025
Nifty seems to show strong signs of making a new lifetime high in Jan 2026. The 25940 to 25740 levels will prove if bulls are entering long positions or not. Wait for it to correct and enter only when sellers show signs of weakness.
Uptrend line projected shows the likely path Nifty will travel in Jan 2026.
Trade will SL of 50 points from entry. If all goes as planned Nifty should give us a close above 26120 by Jan end.
Word of caution: analysis becomes invalid if Nifty starts making LH (Lower Highs) below the uptrend line projected
Wishing you Merry Christmas and a Prosperous & Healthy New Year 2026
Happy Trading!
Bajaj auto in 2025 consolidated in a narrow range of 9500-7000 after making all time high at almost 13000 in sep 2024 .if start closing weekly strong candle above 9500 range high consider as a big breakout and opportunity to accumulate at retest /correction .for targets all time high .bullish view fails if weekly start closing below 8000 levels .
RECLTD | Calm before the storm?DISCLAIMER: This idea is NOT a trade recommendation but only my observation. Please take your trades based on your own analysis.
Points to note:
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1. Since Feb, the stock has been consolidating inside a mother candle.
2. There was breakdown of the mother in Aug, but no further selling, just consolidating inside that new candle again.
3. Finally, another breakdown this month, but there is a strong rejection of sellers, indicating a liquidity sweep.
4. The overall structure forms a Falling wedge.
5. Such large periods of consolidation can lead to a healthy move in coming months.
------------------
Following trade: Entry - CMP, SL- 325, Tgts - 385, 425
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited (M&MFSL)Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited (MMFSL), a part of the Mahindra Group,is a NBFC primarily engaged in the business of financing purchase of new and pre-owned auto and utility vehicles, tractors, cars, commercial vehicles, construction equipment and SME Financing.
In the Indian stock market, there are approximately 288 non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) listed. Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. is among the top 10. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock reached a high of 316 and a low of 75, and the price recovered over the following three years (2023)after the pandemic.Approx 4X and now 5X.
As you all know, this is taken from a significant loss to high or high -to-low time cycle. The cycle used in this case was a 62-days/ 43 trading session cycle, which lasted for two months. But you will see that the maximum swings occur within 15 to 30 days in this type of chart. When you plot the time cycle on this chart, you'll understand that you've captured many highs and low with this floating method.You can use the Dow Theory; it works very well.
NMDC: Impulse Holds as Wave (4) Takes ShapeNMDC on the 1H timeframe is shaping up as a clean impulsive advance from the 72.2 lows. The structure from Wave (2) shows clear separation, strong momentum, and minimal overlap , all hallmarks of an impulse. The recent sharp push into 82.30 fits well as a completed Wave (3) , with internal subdivisions aligning cleanly.
Post the Wave (3) high, price has started to ease — without aggressive selling pressure . This keeps the door open for a healthy Wave (4) correction , ideally unfolding as a sideways or shallow pullback. The 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone (≈78.83–77.76) remains the ideal cooling area. As long as price holds above the Wave (1) high near 73.22 , the impulsive structure stays valid.
RSI behavior supports this view — momentum peaked during Wave (3) and is now cooling, consistent with a corrective pause rather than a trend reversal. A controlled Wave (4) would set the stage for a final Wave (5) advance , potentially pushing into the mid-80s before a higher-degree pause.
Key Levels to Watch
Support zone: 78.83 – 77.76
Invalidation: Below 73.22
Upside continuation: Post Wave (4) resolution
Bottom line:
Patience over prediction. If Wave (4) remains corrective and contained, Wave (5) remains the higher-probability path .
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
APOLLO: Structural Reversal from Key Support Zone🚀 Long Setup: NSE:APOLLO Micro Systems (APOLLO)
Trade Parameters
Entry Zone: ₹245.00 – ₹255.00 (Current breakout level)
Stop Loss (SL): ₹214.00 (Weekly close basis / below structural support)
Target 1: ₹300.00 (Psychological & Analyst Consensus)
Target 2: ₹355.00 (All-Time High retest)
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.8
Technical Analysis
Support Rebound: The stock has successfully defended the ₹210–₹220 horizontal support zone, which acted as a major resistance-turned-support from mid-2025.
Momentum Shift: Today's 5% Upper Circuit hit at ₹249.80, accompanied by a spike in volume, signals the end of a 3-month correction/accumulation phase.
Trend Confirmation: The price has reclaimed the 20-week EMA, shifting the medium-term bias back to bullish.
RSI Recovery: RSI is turning up from the 40-level floor, suggesting the "oversold" energy is being replaced by fresh buying interest.
Fundamental Driver
The technical move is backed by the company's Q2 FY26 performance (highest-ever quarterly income of ₹226 Cr) and a massive ₹1,500 Cr order book. The recent licensing for high-energy explosives provides the long-term thematic tailwind for the Aerospace & Defense sector.
RR KABEL : Breakout Soon Candidate NSE:RRKABEL
🔹 Technical View
Strong recovery from ₹900 zone
Price testing major resistance at ₹1,500–1,510
Above ₹1,510 (weekly close): Breakout → ₹1,650–1,800
Support: ₹1,380–1,400
Structure turning higher high–higher low → bullish bias
🔹 Fundamental Snapshot
Strong brand in wires & cables
Consistent growth, improving margins
Beneficiary of housing, infra & electrification demand
🔹 Outlook
Above ₹1,510: Momentum trade active
Below ₹1,380: Consolidation risk
Medium–Long term: Structurally bullish
Disclaimer:
This content is shared strictly for educational and informational purposes.
We are not SEBI-registered investment advisors or analysts.
The views expressed are personal opinions, based on publicly available data and market observations.
Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before taking any investment or trading decisions. Any actions taken based on this
content are entirely at your own risk and responsibility.
Trade Secrets By Pratik
State Bank Weekly Price Action Analysis for Jan 2026Analysis date: 20-Dec-2025
State Bank closed at 980 levels but the volume is pretty low. This is not a good sign of bullishness. Chances are, sellers could be waiting for price to come in 990 range. They may take the price down to 970 levels as shown on the charts.
Bulls trade with caution.
Bullish Targets are 984, 989, 994, 999 +
Bearish Targets are 970, 956, 947
Keep 10 points SL after your entry.
Happy Trading!
#JKTYRE - Cup & Handle / IHNS BO in DTFScript: JKTYRE
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 Cup & Handle / IHNS BO in DTF
📈 Volume spike seen during Breakout
📈 MACD Bounce
📈 RS Line making 52WH
✅Boost and follow to never miss a new idea! ✅
⚠️ Important: Always Exit the trade before any Event.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk:Reward Ratio as 1:2, with this RR, you only need a 33% win rate to Breakeven.
⚠️Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
EURUSD-Short-15MThe trade was initiated based on a high-probability setup identified through a confluence of technical factors.
Higher Timeframe (HTF) Analysis: Price action on a higher timeframe (15 MIn) demonstrated a perfect retracement into a previously identified order block (OB). This order block represented an area of significant institutional selling pressure (bearish OB) that had yet to be fully mitigated.
Lower Timeframe (LTF) Confirmation: A shift to a 1-minute chart was utilized to refine the entry and gain further confirmation of the HTF bias, a technique used for precise entry and risk control.
Point of Interest (POI) Entry: A precise entry was executed upon the price reaching a specific Point of Interest (POI) within the order block zone, confirming institutional activity at that exact level.
Risk Management & Target:
Risk: A stop-loss order was strategically placed above the high of the order block, defining the maximum risk and invalidation point for the trade.
Reward: The profit target was set at the next key level of Sell-side Liquidity (SSL), located below recent swing lows, where a cluster of stop-loss orders was anticipated to reside.
HEROMOTOCO - Rejection From Strong Resistance, Momentum Cooling💹 Hero MotoCorp Ltd (NSE: HEROMOTOCO)
Sector: Automobiles | CMP: 5817
View: Bearish — Rejection From Strong Resistance, Momentum Cooling
HEROMOTOCO has recently faced a sharp rejection from its upper resistance zone near the 6100–6200 region after a strong prior rally, indicating supply emergence at higher levels rather than healthy consolidation. The subsequent decline has been decisive, with price slipping back below key short-term levels, suggesting that the recent upswing may have been a momentum-driven leg rather than the start of a sustained trend. Current price behaviour reflects a cooling phase following distribution near the highs.
From a structural perspective, the stock remains within a broader developing framework, but near-term momentum has weakened. RSI around 42.6 sits in a neutral-to-healthy zone, indicating that the stock is neither oversold nor displaying reversal exhaustion. Stochastic has cooled from elevated levels, while MACD signals point to loss of bullish momentum rather than aggressive bearish acceleration. ADX suggests the trend is still developing, though recent behaviour highlights a transition from expansion to consolidation or pullback.
Volume participation remains moderate (Vol-X ~0.83), confirming that the recent decline is orderly and controlled, not panic-driven. This reduces the probability of sharp capitulation but keeps downside risk open as long as price fails to reclaim overhead supply. The current structure favours patience, with markets reassessing value after a strong prior move.
Key price references show strong overhead resistance clustered near 5931–6045 and further up around 6120, while immediate structural supports are placed near 5742, followed by 5668 and 5553, defining the current risk-reward envelope. Sustained acceptance above the resistance band would be required to restore bullish confidence, while continued trade below this zone keeps the bias tilted to the downside or range-bound with elevated volatility.
On the derivatives side, near-ATM CALLs and PUTs are referenced strictly for analytical insight into positioning behaviour. CALL-side data shows rising open interest with moderate volume expansion, indicating short build-up rather than directional strength, while PUT-side activity reflects short-covering-led participation, suggesting defensive repositioning rather than fresh aggressive bearish bets. Implied volatility remains in a relatively low-to-moderate band, pointing to measured risk pricing rather than fear-driven expansion. Overall, derivatives behaviour aligns with a cooling, non-trending phase, where conviction remains mixed and momentum-dependent.
Structure quality metrics reflect this balance. The STWP Edge Score in the moderate range highlights tradability but not high-conviction trend alignment. Liquidity remains concentrated near ATM strikes, supporting participation, but directional option structures remain sensitive to time decay and price stalling, reinforcing the importance of confirmation through price acceptance or rejection at key levels.
Overall, HEROMOTOCO is currently in a post-rally digestion phase, with bearish pressure emerging near resistance and momentum moderating. While deeper downside is possible if supports fail, the absence of capitulation volume suggests that the stock may oscillate within a defined range unless fresh directional conviction develops.
Final Outlook (Educational Snapshot):
Momentum: Neutral| Trend: Developing / Cooling | Risk: Low | Volume: Normal
⚠️ STWP Legal Disclaimer
This document is strictly for educational and informational purposes. All examples, charts, levels, and option structures discussed are illustrative and are not intended as buy, sell, or hold recommendations. STWP does not provide investment advice, trading tips, signals, or personalized financial guidance of any kind, nor is it a SEBI-registered intermediary or research analyst. The analyses, illustrations, and risk–reward structures included here are generic in nature and based on publicly available data and observed market behaviour, which may change without notice. Financial markets involve significant risk; derivatives in particular carry the potential for substantial losses. Option premiums, implied volatility, open interest, delta, and other market variables can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably.
Readers are solely responsible for their trading decisions, capital management, and risk assessment. Before making any investment or trading decision, please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor. STWP, its representatives, and affiliates shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this material. Historical patterns or past market behaviour do not guarantee future outcomes, nor should any part of this document be interpreted as a promise of performance, accuracy, or returns.
Position Status: No active position in this instrument at the time of analysis.
Data Source: TradingView & NSE India.
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BANKNIFTY at a Make-or-Break ZoneNIFTYBANK is currently trading at a critical confluence zone where a downward-sloping resistance trendline is meeting a well-defined rising support area on the 1-hour timeframe. This price compression indicates indecision and typically precedes a sharp directional move. The index has repeatedly respected both these levels, confirming their importance in the current structure.
On the upside, the falling resistance zone near 59,300–59,500 remains the key hurdle. A sustained breakout and close above this trendline would signal a shift in short-term momentum, opening the door for a recovery move toward 59,800 initially, followed by a potential extension toward the 60,400–60,600 zone. Such a breakout would also indicate that buyers are regaining control after the recent corrective phase.
On the downside, the green support zone around 58,700–58,850 is the immediate demand area to watch. This zone has acted as a base multiple times, and as long as Bank Nifty holds above it, pullbacks may continue to attract buyers. However, a decisive breakdown below this support would invalidate the bullish bounce scenario and could accelerate selling pressure toward 58,300 first, with a deeper downside extension possible toward the 57,200 region.
Overall, BANKNIFTY is trading inside a tightening range, signaling an imminent volatility expansion. Directional clarity will emerge only after a confirmed breakout or breakdown. Traders should remain cautious at current levels and wait for confirmation, as this is a classic decision zone where false moves are also common.
WELSPUNLIV | Trend Reversal with Strong VolumeWelspun Living Ltd. (NSE: WELSPUNLIV) is showing signs of a significant trend reversal as it breaks out of a downward channel, supported by a surge in volume. After multiple attempts to move higher, the price action has finally broken above the crucial resistance at ₹132.90, signaling the potential for an uptrend. Here’s the breakdown:
Breakout Point: The price has broken out of a downward trend channel (highlighted in blue), which could signal the start of a bullish phase.
Key Support: The breakout level around ₹132.90 will act as a key support, and any pullbacks towards this level can be considered as potential buying opportunities.
Level 1 - ₹150.99: The first resistance is at ₹150.99. A successful breakout above this level will confirm the uptrend.
Level 2 - ₹166.99: The next major resistance is ₹166.99, which will likely act as a significant hurdle.
Level 3 - ₹181.09: If momentum continues, the price could reach ₹181.09, where another resistance zone exists.
Ultimate Level - ₹212.57: If the bullish trend continues, the price could eventually reach ₹212.57, the next major resistance zone.
Volume Confirmation: The breakout is accompanied by a notable increase in volume, which enhances the reliability of this move.
Note: This analysis is purely for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. It is based on technical indicators and historical price action. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Use proper risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders, when trading. The market is unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
CEAT LTD: Demand Is Quietly Winning This BattleThis chart tells a very classic supply–demand story where emotions and patience are clearly separated. On the surface, recent price action may look weak or confusing, but when you zoom out and read it through the lens of demand–supply and price action, the bigger picture becomes very clear.
🔥 Higher Timeframe Context Sets the Bias 🔍
The first and most important observation is the higher timeframe structure. The broader trend remains bullish, with price consistently respecting demand areas and continuing to form higher bases over time. This immediately shifts our mindset from “fear” to “probability.”
• Higher timeframe trend is aligned to the upside
• No active or nearby higher timeframe supply visible above
• Market structure still favours demand reacting, not supply dominating
When higher timeframe supply is absent, downside moves usually represent pauses or pullbacks, not trend reversals.
📦 Demand Zone Quality: Why This Area Matters 🧲
Price is now approaching a demand zone that stands out because of its origin and structure . This is not a random support area drawn emotionally—it is a zone created by clear institutional activity.
• The leg-out from this base was strong and decisive this is breakout candle as well this candle showed urgency & imbalance
• Minimal base candles indicate less absorption and more unfilled orders
• Zone has not been over-tested, preserving its freshness
High-quality leg-out candles usually tell us that large players were active, and such zones often act as magnets when price revisits them.
🧠 What Price Action Is Whispering Right Now 🕯️
As price approaches demand, notice how momentum slows instead of collapsing. This subtle change in behaviour is important.
• Selling pressure is reducing as price drops into demand
• No impulsive bearish expansion seen into the zone
• Wicks and smaller bodies suggest profit booking, not panic selling
This type of price action often precedes either a pause or a reaction, especially when aligned with higher timeframe demand.
⚠️ Risk Awareness & Trade Thinking ⚖️
Even the best-looking zones can fail. Markets don’t move on certainty, they move on probabilities.
• No setup is ever guaranteed
• Always define risk before thinking about reward
• Strong zones can fail if broader market sentiment changes
• Capital protection is more important than prediction
Smart traders survive first—profits come second.
💡 Final Thoughts 🌟
This chart is a textbook example of how institutions quietly build positions while retail traders hesitate. Demand zones with strong leg-outs, aligned trends, and clean structure are where patience often pays.
🚀 “The market doesn’t reward speed, it rewards discipline and clarity.” 🚀
Thank you for your support, your likes & comments. Feel free to ask if you have questions.
📌 This analysis is for educational purposes only and not intended as a trading or investment recommendation. I am not a SEBI registered analyst.
Bitcoin UpdateBTC is down ~2% today but has recovered from the lows and is holding above key support at $86,180 — showing strong respect for the trendline.
Key Levels:
🟢 Support: $86,180 → if this breaks, next major support is $75,000
🔵 Resistance: ~$92,000
🟩 Major Resistance: ~$100,000
Positioning:
I remain long from $86.2K and plan to add near $75K if price drops.
Trend structure remains intact.
RR Kabel Ltd | Volume Area High Breakout Setup RR Kabel is currently trading above the Volume Area High, indicating strong acceptance at higher levels. Price is hovering near a key resistance zone and showing signs of a potential breakout with volume expansion.
Technical View:
Acceptance above VAH → bullish bias
Strong base formation after consolidation
Breakout confirmation expected on sustained price + volume
Trade Plan:
Buy on breakout / hold above resistance
Target: 1650
Stop Loss: Daily close below 1345
Varun BeveragesDate 15.12.2025
Varun Beverages
Timeframe : Weekly Chart
About
(1) Varun Beverages has been associated with PepsiCo since the 1990s
(2) Operations spans 10 countries with franchise rights & distribution rights
Brands
(1) PepsiCo. franchised Brands - Pepsi, Tropicana, Slice, 7UP, Sting, Kurkure, Aquafina, Lipton, Doritos, Mirinda, Fritolay
(2) Own Brands - Jive, Cooe, Reboost, Creambell, Aquaclear, Refreshh etc.
Sales Volume Breakup
(1) CSD - 76%
(2) Juice - 8%
(3) Water - 16%
Note* CSD stands for Carbonated Soft Drinks
(1) Indian Subcontinent (India, Sri Lanka, Nepal) contributed ~83% to revenues
(2) Africa (Morocco, Zambia, Zimbabwe) contributed to ~17% of total revenues
Valuations
(1) Market Cap ₹ 1,61,558 Cr
(2) Stock Pe 54.4
(3) Roce 24.8 %
(4) Roe 22.5 %
(5) Book Value 8X
(6) Opm 23.55%
(7) Promoter 59.44%
(8) Profit Growth (TTM) 17%
(9) Sales Growth 11.50%
(10) PEG 0.98
Regards,
Ankur Singh
Nifty 50 Swing Trading setup - RRR 1:3Nifty swing trading setup analysis through Elliott wave Downside risk max 200 points target 600 point reaching possible on before 02/01/2026 maximum hold 2 weeks this setup useful for swing traders so go long at 25900-25800 Risk reward is good 1:3 Happy trading Journey






















