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INDIACEM: Trendline Breakout Inside a Rising Wedge PatternNSE:INDIACEM Breaks Key Resistance: Is This the Start of a New Bull Run, after Ultratech Cement's Bullish Commentary Post Results? Price Action: • The stock has demonstrated a classic rising wedge pattern formation throughout 2025, indicating controlled accumulation • Current price of ₹370.95 represents a significant breakout above the Trendline resistance • The breakout is accompanied by substantial volume expansion (5.61M vs average), confirming institutional participation • Price has recovered strongly from the March 2025 low of approximately ₹240, representing a 54% rally Volume Spread Analysis: • Volume spike visible during the recent breakout phase, indicating genuine buying interest • Historical volume patterns show increased participation during key support bounces • Current volume of 821.51K is significantly above average, supporting the breakout thesis • Volume profile suggests institutional accumulation during the consolidation phases Technical Patterns and Levels: Base Formation: • Primary base established between ₹240-280 levels during February-March 2025 • Secondary base formed around the ₹300-320 range during the wedge consolidation • Multiple successful tests of these base levels confirm strong demand zones Support Levels: • Immediate support: ₹350 (previous resistance now turned support) • Secondary support: ₹320-330 (wedge midpoint) • Strong support: ₹300 (multiple bounce level) • Ultimate support: ₹240-250 (March 2025 low) Resistance Levels: • Immediate resistance: ₹380-382 (current high area) • Next target: ₹400-420 (measured move from wedge) • Long-term resistance: ₹450-470 (based on pattern projection) Technical Patterns: • Rising Wedge Pattern: Successfully above wedge Support with volume • Trendline Break: Clean break above descending trendline resistance • Multiple Bottom Formation: Strong base building around ₹240-280 levels • Volume Expansion: Confirming the validity of the current breakout Trade Setup: Entry Strategy: • Primary Entry: ₹365-370 (current levels on any minor pullback) • Aggressive Entry: ₹371-375 (momentum continuation) • Conservative Entry: ₹350-355 (retest of breakout level) Target Levels: • Target 1: ₹400 (immediate resistance, 8% upside) • Target 2: ₹430 (wedge measured move, 16% upside) • Target 3: ₹470 (extended target, 27% upside) Stop-Loss Levels: • Tight Stop: ₹345 (below breakout level, 7% risk) • Comfortable Stop: ₹320 (below wedge support, 14% risk) • Long-term Stop: ₹300 (major support breach, 19% risk) Risk Management: Position Sizing: • Conservative Approach: 2-3% of portfolio (given sector volatility) • Moderate Risk: 4-5% of portfolio for experienced traders • Maximum allocation: Not more than 7-8% considering stock-specific risks Risk-Reward Analysis: • Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 to 1:3 depending on entry and stop levels • Probability of success: High (70-75%) given technical setup • Time horizon: 3-6 months for target achievement Portfolio Considerations: • Diversification across cement stocks recommended • Monitor sector rotation and infrastructure spending announcements • Consider hedging through index options if holding large positions Sectoral and Fundamental Backdrop: Cement Industry Outlook 2025: • Industry expects 7-8% growth in cement demand for FY25, driven by infrastructure development • Government allocated ₹2.87 lakh crore for road infrastructure, supporting cement demand • Capacity utilization expected to improve to 72% from current levels • Addition of 35-40 million tonnes of new capacity, primarily in eastern and southern India India Cements Fundamentals: • Market capitalization: ₹11,511 crores as of current levels • Manufacturing capacity: 14.75 MTPA after recent expansions • Product mix: 35% Ordinary Portland Cement, 65% Portland Pozzolana Cement • Notable sponsorship: IPL franchise Chennai Super Kings (brand visibility) • Revenue: ₹1,025 crores in Q1 FY26 (-0.20% YoY decline but improving margins) Growth Catalysts: • Infrastructure spending boost from Union Budget 2025-26 • India cement market projected to grow at 7.6% CAGR through 2033 • Rising construction activities in the southern and eastern regions • Potential for market consolidation benefiting established players • Promoter holding increased to 81.49% (from 28.42% in June 2024), indicating strong confidence Risk Factors: • Raw material cost inflation impacting margins • Seasonal demand variations affecting quarterly performance • Competition from larger players like Ambuja Cements • Environmental regulations potentially increasing compliance costs • Regional demand concentration in southern markets My Take: NSE:INDIACEM presents a compelling technical setup with the successful breakout from a Trendline into a rising wedge pattern. The combination of strong volume support, improving sectoral fundamentals, and a favourable government policy backdrop creates an attractive risk-reward proposition. However, traders should maintain proper position sizing and risk management given the inherent volatility in cement stocks. Keep in the Watchlist and DOYR. NO RECO. For Buy/Sell. 📌Thank you for exploring my idea! I hope you found it valuable. 🙏FOLLOW for more 👍BOOST if you found it useful. ✍️COMMENT below with your views. Meanwhile, check out my other stock ideas on the right side until this trade is activated. I would love your feedback. Disclaimer: "I am not a SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST AND INVESTMENT ADVISER." This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. It is advisable to consult a qualified financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
NSE:INDIACEMLong
by Karanshah137
2
EURJPY SHOWING A GOOD DOWN MOVE WITH 1:8 RISK REWARDEURJPY SHOWING A GOOD DOWN MOVE WITH 1:8 RISK REWARD DUE TO THESE REASON A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules that will help you to to become a bettertrader thank you
Short
by tradergyan01
1
UPL LTD BREAKOUTUPL LTD has broken through its weekly trend line and is now showing bullish momentum after a short period of consolidation. The next target is the all-time high, which traders may aim for. A suitable stop-loss could be placed at either 650 or 600, depending on individual risk appetite. On the financial front, UPL's latest quarterly results for the period ending March 2025 show solid performance. The company reported a revenue of Rs 15,573 crore, along with a net profit of Rs 1,106 crore. Its Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the quarter stood at Rs 11.42.
NSE:UPLLong
by ard-komercisto
Gold XAUUSD Trading Strategy on July 22, 2025Gold XAUUSD Trading Strategy on July 22, 2025: Yesterday's trading session, gold prices rebounded strongly from the 3345 area to the 3402 area after the previous multi-timeframe compression. Basic news: President Donald Trump's trade stance towards Europe became tougher; Europe plans to develop a retaliation plan. Technical analysis: After the previous multi-timeframe compression, gold prices rebounded strongly again. The previous resistance zone of 3365 - 3370 has now become a support zone for gold prices. Currently, a strong uptrend is showing in multiple timeframes. However, the RSI on the H1 frame is currently quite overbought, we will wait for a correction to the support zone to trade. Important price zones today: 3365 - 3370, 3347 - 3352 and 3422 - 3427. Today's trading trend: BUY. Recommended orders: Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3365 - 3367 SL 3362 TP 3370 - 3380 - 3400 - 3420. Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 3347 - 3349 SL 3344 TP 3352 - 3362 - 3372 - 3400. Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 3425 - 3427 SL 3430 TP 3422 - 3412 - 3402 - 3382 (small volume). Wish you a safe, favorable and profitable trading day.💯💯💯💯💯
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ryemud
The Nuances of Trading : How to draw lines on chart (Examples)Let's Learn the Trading Together... I have started a new series of trading called #LNT (Learn the Nuances of Trading) where you are going to learn All the things which is going to help you to be a good trader.. (#TNT program) Learning in Video : In This Video I have teach you how to draw Lines (Examples) .. It is going to very helpful if you participate the challenges so that we can build a very good trading community.. It is my attempt to teach you the trading.. Hope you will like. Disclaimer : It is my personal view as a trader and for educational purpose only. Equity market involves risk. Please consult your financial adviser before taking any decision.
NSE:TCSEducation
by SthitaprajnaYogi
5