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Ukraine

05 Apr - Nifty was Flat, BankNifty picked up momentum!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Now take a look at the 63mts chart, and see where the reversal came from ~ 22295 levels. That is the main reason why we said a stance change is required only if 22295 is broken and since we did not do that, we continue to remain bullish.” Nifty had no momentum today, but BankNifty had lots of it. Yesterday SPX & NDQ had a real down day and its spillover effects were visible during the opening minutes. We opened gap-down and then slowly recovered from that. There were no abrupt or wild movements for a change. That takes me to the next question, why did we really have a 300+ point fall yesterday? It was not because of RBI MPC, otherwise we would have passed the swing high. How many of you think it could be because of the worsening situation in the Middle East? Today was an inside day with no real momentum and that does not mean that we are not bullish. We will keep an eye on the Global macros, if the news about the War widening in scope both in Ukraine and Israel is true then it could really kill the optimism. Just before the macros worsen - GOLD prices go up. An escalation of tensions will shoot up the OIL prices as well. At present, we have both.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
RCF Analysis - Don't miss this opportunityNSE:RCF EDIT- 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th indicates attempts to break the trendline and not the date. The dates ( in MM/YYYY) are written below the attempt number. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited (RCF) manufactures and markets various kinds of fertilizers such as urea, bio-fertilizers, micro-nutrients, water soluble fertilizers, soil conditioners etc. TTM EPS: 11.28 TTM PE: 8.39 Sector PE: 17.42 Book Value Per Share: 60.42 P/B: 1.57 Face Value: 10 Mkt Cap (Rs. Cr.): 5,218 Dividend Yield: 3.15 Some Positves: Rising Net Cash Flow and Cash from Operating activity Company with high TTM EPS Growth Strong Annual EPS Growth New 52 Week High Effectively using its capital to generate profit - RoCE improving in last 2 years Effectively using Shareholders fund - Return on equity (ROE) improving since last 2 year Efficient in managing Assets to generate Profits - ROA improving since last 2 year Increasing Revenue every Quarter for the past 4 Quarters Strong cash generating ability from core business - Improving Cash Flow from operation for last 2 years Company able to generate Net Cash - Improving Net Cash Flow for last 2 years Annual Net Profits improving for last 2 years Book Value per share Improving for last 2 years Company with Zero Promoter Pledge FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding Stock gained more than 20% in one month Strong Momentum: Price above short, medium and long term moving averages Some Negatives: Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 0.23%, vs industry avg of 7.19% Over the last 5 years, net income has grown at a yearly rate of 17.29%, vs industry avg of 31.88% Over the last 5 years, market share decreased from 8.45% to 6.02% If sanctions over Russia are withdrawn then it may have a negative impact on Indian fertilizer companies. My Opinion: GoI is selling stake in RCF & NFL to reach Rs 23k crore disinvestment target. The company has double cash reserve than debt. Russia and Ukraine produce around 20-25% of global fertilizer production. The supply has taken hit and this presents a good opportunity for Indian companies. The volume indicates that the price will breakout the trendline this time. First target 100 above that 135-140 is very much possible in next 3 months. NOT A RECOMMENDATION. JUST FOR EDUCATION. Thanks.
NSE:RCFLong
by babutaaniket
EURUSD bulls need validation from 21-DMA to retake controlsEURUSD’s corrective pullback remains below 21-DMA, as well as a two-week-old ascending trend line, suggesting a further downside towards the lower end of the latest range between 1.1120 and 1.0900. However, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of February-March downside acts as an intermediate halt around 1.0980. While the bearish MACD and downward sloping RSI favor the bears of late, the prices have little room on the downside before the RSI turns oversold. As a result, the 1.0900 support is likely acting as a trigger for fresh buying, if not then the quote’s south-run towards the monthly low near 1.0800 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 21-DMA level surrounding 1.1035 guards the quote’s short-term rebound ahead of the previous support line from early March, near 1.1045-50 at the latest. In a case where the EURUSD prices rally beyond 1.1050, the upper end of the aforementioned trading range, close to 1.1120, will lure the bulls. It should be noted, however, that the pair’s successful break of 1.1120 will enable the buyers to challenge the 50-DMA level surrounding 1.1200. Overall, EURUSD is likely to decline further but the south-run has a limited horizon to cover.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold bears flex muscles on a big dayBe it the March PMIs or US Durable Goods Orders, not to forget the key NATO meeting, Thursday has it all to trigger market volatility. Gold has already printed a bear cross but the 200-SMA has been defending bulls so far, suggesting a tough fight between the buyers and sellers. However, lower-high formation since the early days of March, as well as sluggish MACD and gradually picking up RSI, keeps sellers hopeful of witnessing a break of the 200-SMA support, around $1,910. Following that, the monthly low and late February’s bottom, respectively around $1,895 and $1,878, will act as validation points for the bear’s entry. On the contrary, a clear upside break of the 100-SMA level surrounding $1,955 will escalate the gold prices towards the previous month’s peak near $1,975. Though, the $2,000 threshold and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of January-March upside around $2,002 will challenge the metal buyers. In a case where the bullion prices remain firm past $2,002, the quote can confront the $2,040 hurdle with hopes of challenging the monthly peak of $2,071. To sum up, gold sellers slowly grip the prices ahead of the key data/events but it all depends more on fundamentals, making it necessary for traders to remain cautious.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Rupee Should Get stronger and come back to 75.5 Rs per Dollar Interesting Price Action and charts pattern are being observed in USD/INR currency pairs. 1. The Cup and Handle Formation. Cup formation can continue or Handle pattern can be formed and price can shoot up. As global situations are pacifying. We believe, rupee should get bit stronger. 2. All time high Resistance We have seen previously, sell of from these high levels in past. 3. ABCD harmonic According to these Rupee can test Neck of Harmonic, that can be around Rs75.5 4. Fibonacci Retracement If it tests 0.382 or 0.50 of Fibonacci levels, It should come back to Rs75.25 or Rs74.5 per dollar exchange rate in upcoming days. Trade on your own risk and analysis.
by About_Bazaar
EURUSD is all set to test 1.1000 psychological magnetEURUSD remains on the back foot around a 21-month low, despite the recently sidelined performance. That said, the bearish MACD signals do support the latest break of a descending support line from late November, around 1.1080 at the latest, which in turn hints at the quote’s further weakness. However, the RSI line nears the oversold territory and hence indicates that a bounce a brewing around the next support. The same highlights the 1.1000 support confluence for the bears, including 13-day-old support and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair’s moves between September 2021 and February 2021. In a case where EURUSD’s downside fails to take a halt near 1.1000, October 2019 low near 1.0880 will gain the market’s attention. Meanwhile, the corrective pullback may aim for December 2021 low surrounding 1.1220 before directing short-term EURUSD buyers towards the mid-February 2022 bottom around 1.1280. However, a convergence of the 21 and 50-DMA close to 1.1320-25 will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls afterward. Should the quote manage to cross the 1.1325 hurdle, the odds of its rally towards a seven-week-old horizontal resistance zone near 1.1480-95 can’t be ruled out. Other than the technical details, grim concerns surrounding Ukraine pedal the rush to risk-safety, favoring the US dollar. Adding to the greenback’s strength is the comparatively more hawkish tone of the latest Fedspeak than the rest of the global central banks.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
3
EURUSD bears eye 1.1000 as Russia triggers flight-to-safetyAs Moscow proved the Western forecasts right by invading Kyiv, markets players rushed to risk safety on Thursday. The sour sentiment propelled prices of traditional safe-havens, like gold and USD, which in turn caused the EURUSD pair’s slump. The south-run also conquered three-month-old horizontal support around 1.1185-70. The same opened doors for the quote’s further weakness towards refreshing 2022 low, currently around 1.1120. This highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion of the pair’s moves between September 2021 and February 2022, around 1.1000. It should be noted, however, that oversold RSI and the strength of the psychological magnet can trigger the quote’s corrective pullback around 1.1000, if not then late May 2020 swing lows around 1.0870 will be in focus. That being said, the quote defends the horizontal area from November of late, which in turn teases buyers to aim for the December 2021 lows surrounding 1.1220. Following that, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-January declines, around 1.1300, should lure EURUSD bulls. Though, a convergence of the 21 and 50 DMAs, near 1.1330, will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers. On a bit broader scenario, double tops around 1.1480-85 and the monthly peak of 1.1495 act as crucial hurdles for buyer’s entry. Overall, the US dollar has the further upside to track until the geopolitical issue gets resolved, or at least tamed for the short-term.
by MTradingGlobal
NIFTY - Russia Ukraine Index CrashRussia-Ukraine has created panic around world markets and almost all global indexes are seeing big fall in numbers. Nifty which was already bearish turned received heavy selling today as well and have breached an important support line of 16400. However there is one more ascending trend line support available at around 16000 level which has worked in past when index consolidated for more than 60 days. Range starting from 15500-16000 last time was area of major action when lot of tussle happened between bulls and bears and finally breakout happened for further fresh rally. If price continue to fall we can except some kind of support along trendline highlighted on chart.
NSE:NIFTY
by MrGaggi
Gold refreshes multi-month high above $1,900 on Russia invasion Despite reversing from an eight-month high, gold prices recently crossed the stated key resistance, also rallied beyond June 2021 peak. Additionally, favoring gold buyers is the metal’s ability to stay above the previous double-tops, as well as a three-week-old support line, amid bullish MACD signals. However, the RSI pullback from the overbought territory may test the immediate rising trend line near $1,866, a break of which will highlight the $1879-77 region as the short-term buyer’s last defense. In a case where gold prices drop below $1,877, January’s peak of $1,853 will return to the chart but a convergence of the 100 and 200-DMA near $1,810 will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers afterward. Alternatively, tops marked in January 2021 and November 2020, respectively around $1,960 and $1,965, can lure the gold buyers before directing them to the $2,000 psychological magnet. Fundamentally, concerns of an imminent war between Russia and Ukraine join inflation woes to keep supporting the gold bulls. Though, firmer US Q4 GDP, second estimate, will propel 0.50% Fed-rate-hike concerns, which in turn can trigger short-term pullback of the precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Silver bulls eye 200-DMA on Russia-led risk-off moodAfter three consecutive weeks of upside, silver had a sober start to the current week as it marked the first negative daily closing in four. However, the latest anti-risk headlines, mainly concerning odds over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, help XAG/USD to refresh its monthly high. Also, the bright metal remains above a 13-day-old support line amid firmer RSI and MACD signals. As a result, bulls can keep the 200-DMA level of $24.30 on the radar once the quote pierces the $24.00 threshold. It should be noted, however, that the metal’s upside past-200-DMA may become difficult due to the RSI’s nearness to the overbought territory, if not then the previous monthly peak surrounding $24.70 should return to the charts ahead of directing buyers to $25.35 key hurdle. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive until breaking the stated support line, around $23.65 at the latest. Following that, a downward trajectory towards the 100-DMA level near $23.30 and then to the $23.00 threshold can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting that a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-November 2021 upside, near $22.20, should lure silver bears once they break $23.00. Overall, silver remains in the recovery mode with an intermediate pullback testing short-term technical support.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by MTradingGlobal
And it Shines again !!!Gold CMP : $1878 As highlighted in a month ago on a pre-emptive move. Gold had witnessed a sharp rally of ~3.20% or ~$55 in last three days • After consolidating for almost 18 months in the range, The shining metal has breached the key resistance zone around $1840 • Technically, Gold breaking out on daily, weekly and monthly charts • Increasing Geopolitical tension makes investor rush for safe heaven bets • Gold has been broadly underperforming asset in 7-8 years In escalation of Russia – Ukraine tension, it is expected to head higher till $1920 where June’21 highs are placed. I continue my long bias on Gold. Interim target for the Precious metal is placed at $1922 and $1940 However, I also expect it could perform comparatively better in next 6 to 12 months.
TVC:GOLDLong
by viralkadecha