CRUCIAL NFP DATA AHEAD!!!Market are betting on fed rates in today mainly. If NFP comes stronger than expected, markets might plunge giving fed signal to raise interest as economy is healthy. However of it comes weak, markets will speculate fed might slow down rates. US Dollar Index could rebound towards the 114.80 high.
During last OPEC meet on Wednesday OPEC decided in its first one-on-one meeting since 2020 to cut production by up to 2 million barrels per day from November. Oil prices have fallen to around $90 a barrel from $120 in early June, amid growing fears of the prospect of a global economic recession. However, still not knowing how long will it last and with what intensity, predictions are useless for now.
On the other side US opposes such a move, as OPEC keeps oil prices high, resulting in inflationary pressures on consumers and production costs. More specifically, President Biden is disappointed by OPEC's short-sighted decision to reduce production quotas while the global economy deals with the continuing negative effects of Putin's invasion of Ukraine. At a time when maintaining global energy, supplies are of the most importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on low- and middle-income countries that are already struggling with high energy prices. At Biden's direction, the Energy Department will release another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market next month.
As per opinion looking at the history US do not have a tendency to remain quiet after this big opposing move however based on current situation they not declare straight economic wars against each other however the COLD WAR has already been started and rumours are coming that all the upcoming moves from US are taken under the same considerations, now the Big question arises here is today's NFP will really be based on country's conditions or the it will be based on the Running conflict between other countries, Let's wait for few more hours and we have our answers,
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EURUSD eyes further downside below parityAlthough June 1989’s low test EUR/USD bears, a clear downside break of the 2.5-month-old support line, now resistance around 0.9850, keeps sellers hopeful at the lowest levels in 20 years. Even so, the major currency pair stays inside a bearish channel formation established on May 12 and has its support line located around 0.9490 by the press time. Additionally, the January 2001 low of around 0.9600 could join the oversold RSI conditions to challenge the short-term downside.
Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive until the quote stays successfully beyond the 10-week-old support-turned-resistance line around 0.9850. Following that, the 0.9950 and the 1.000 parity level could entertain short-term buyers. However, a convergence of the 50-DMA and upper line of the stated channel, close to 1.0080, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls before they can dream of retaking control.
It’s worth noting that the Italian elections and multiple speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde, as well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, make it an interesting pair to watch on Friday.