USDJPY edges higher within multi-month-old bullish channelUSDJPY defends a two-week uptrend within an ascending trend channel established since early March. In doing so, the Yen pair stays near an upper limit of the stated channel, recently wobbling between the 21-day SMA and a one-month-long resistance line. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line suggests the bullish exhaustion while the MACD also lacks directional momentum and hence a pullback towards the 21-day SMA level of around 146.55 appears imminent. Adding strength to the stated SMA support is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn. In a case where the Yen pair drops below 146.55, July’s peak of 144.90 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 142.55 can test the bears before allowing them to challenge the key supports, namely the 100-day SMA and the aforementioned channel’s bottom line which are around 141.80 and 141.40 respectively.
Meanwhile, an ascending trend line from mid-August, close to 148.80, guards immediate recovery of the USDJPY pair ahead of the bullish channel’s top line, close to 149.80 at the latest. Following that, the 150.00 psychological magnet and 150.30 levels may test the Yen pair buyers. In a case where the risk-barometer pair stays firmer past 150.30, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards challenging the previous yearly peak of around 152.00 can’t be ruled out.
To sum up, USDJPY buyers keep the reins at the start of the Fed week, even as Japan’s national holiday and sluggish upside momentum prod the bulls of late.
USDJPY
USD/JPY market analysis todayLooking at the technical picture of USD/JPY on the 4 -hour chart, they can see that: Currently, the USD/JPY pair is maintaining an increase within the limit between 147,00. From the strong US economic data, it has contributed to consolidating the US dollar (USD). In addition, the US dollar index (DXY), USD measurement compared to other six main currencies, remains over 105.35 and is close to the highest daily store since March. Currently, this pair of money is trading around 147.45 with a slight decrease of 0.02% in today's session so it can be the motivation for gold to continue the increase in the short term.
USD JPY LONGSept #2 Trade :
Risk 0.5%
TP1 = 1:2 RR
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Rising wedge lures USDJPY sellers amid hawkish BoJ concernsUSDJPY begins the week on a negative note while extending a downside gap during the early hours of Monday. Adding strength to the bearish bias about the Yen pair are the concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy easing and a five-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. It should be noted, however, that multiple supports stand tall to test the pair sellers on their way to the theoretical target of the rising wedge confirmation, around 139.20. That said, the stated wedge’s bottom line of around 145.60 acts as an immediate challenge for the bears to retake control. Following that, the 200-SMA and an ascending trend line from mid-July, close to 144.70 and 143.40 in that order, will precede the 140.00 round figure to also check the pair’s downside momentum ahead of highlighting the 139.20 mark.
On the contrary, another rejection from the BoJ policymakers to the hawkish bias and strong US Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, could renew the upside bias about the USDJPY pair. In that case, the tops marked since last Tuesday around 147.90 will provide headwinds to the Yen pair’s recovery. It should be noted that the stated wedge’s top line, around 148.10 by the press time, holds the key to the buyer’s entry. In that case, the north run will aim for the 150.00 psychological magnet ahead of targeting the previous yearly high surrounding 151.95, as well as the 152.00 threshold.
To sum up, USDJPY bulls appear to run out of steam but the bears need validation from 145.60, BoJ officials and the US inflation to retake control.
USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold? USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold?
In September of last year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a move in the market to strengthen its currency when it reached 145 against the USD, marking the first such intervention since 1998. This action was taken following the BOJ's decision to maintain an extremely accommodative policy (a policy that is yet to change still). The BOJ intervened once more in October when the yen further plummeted to its lowest level in 32 years, reaching 151.94 against the dollar.
At present, investors hold a substantial short position in the yen, valued at $9.793 billion, representing the largest such position in the USDJPY since May 2022. This value has nearly doubled in just the past three months. Notably, former Japanese Vice Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara has suggested that the USDJPY could reach 160 before the BOJ intervenes once again.
However, the USDJPY has recently built a bit of a buffer between itself and whatever the intervention threshold is for the BoJ. Over the past two trading days, the US dollar has weakened, largely due to remarks made by Federal Reserve officials. These statements have strengthened the belief that the US central bank is nearing the end of its tightening phase.
It is widely anticipated that Fed policymakers will implement a rate increase during their upcoming meeting this month, which would set the policy rate range at 5.25% to 5.50%. However, the timing of any subsequent rate hikes remains uncertain. There are questions whether they will raise rates again in September, delay until November, or maintain the current stance and allow inflation to naturally subside over time.
Consequently, the US dollar has experienced a decline against the yen, reaching a low of 141.32 yen, the lowest level observed since June 21. Currently, it is down 0.5% at 141.328. This drop follows a decrease of nearly 1.3% seen last Friday when the US nonfarm payrolls for June fell short of market expectations at 209,000.
breakdown ?? real or fake usdjpy has been rallying all the way from april and a little bearish move during 6-13 jul 23
now the price has reached almost to the previous high and resistance zone on daily time frame
we noticed the price has created the evening star pattern (bearish)
and on medium time frame price a made impluse movement seems like liqudity grab
and with two candle previous 5-6 candles got overlapped from resistance (bearish)
price was forming a flag and pole like pattern and looked failed as price tried to breakout but it got rejected and came back into the zone of flag (bearish)
the actual breakdown will occur after the level of 144.500 is taken down
it is the higher low swing and closing below this level it will indicated selling pressure and change of trend
USDJPY bulls run out of steam around mid-146.00sUSDJPY again flirts with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn within a five-month-long bullish channel. Though, the overbought RSI (14) and looming bear cross on the MACD signal pullback of the Yen pair. That said, the tops marked in late June and early July join the 21-DMA to highlight the 144.60-50 zone as a short-term key support. In a case where the risk-barometer pair drops below 144.50, the late July swing high around 142.00 might stop the sellers before challenging them with the 140.00 support confluence comprising 100-DMA and the bottom line of the stated channel.
Meanwhile, a daily closing beyond the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 146.50 will direct the USDJPY buyers toward the November 2022 peak of around 148.85 and then to the 149.00 round figure. Following that, the 150.00 round figure might test the Yen pair’s upside before highlighting the previous yearly high of around 152.00.
To sum up, the USDJPY pair’s pullback appears overdue but the downtrend appears off the table beyond 140.00.
USDJPY portrays bullish consolidation beyond 200-SMAUSDJPY posted a three-week winning streak but ended Thursday on a negative note. That said, a convergence of 50-SMA and a seven-week-old horizontal area surrounding 145.00-145.10 restricts the immediate downside of the Yen pair. Following that, the early-month high of around 143.90 and the 200-SMA level of around 142.15 will act as the final defense of the buyers. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 142.15, as well as breaks the 142.00 round figure, the odds of witnessing a slump towards the 140.00 round figure and then to the late July swing of near 138.00 can’t be ruled out.
Alternatively, a corrective bounce in the USDJPY price could challenge the latest multi-month peak of around 146.60 before trying to restore the bull’s confidence by poking the previous support line stretched from July 28, around 146.80. In a case where the Yen buyers remain dominant past 146.80, the 150.00 round figure will be crucial to watch as the key upside hurdle, a break of which could allow the upside to aim for the previous yearly top surrounding 152.00.
Overall, the USDJPY buyers are taking a breather but not off the table as the key supports hold.
USDJPY Long IDEA
As analysed on July 10 regarding the short opportunity on USDJPY, moved perfectly and respected the deemand area.
And made a double bottom or W pattern nearby.
Now the price is bullish to touch the near high so every deep is a long opportunity.
Unless the price break, the fresh low keet buys target the swing high /Major supply area.
USD/JPY the two ways to trade (long and short) logic1. for pullback trader or people on short side will trade based on lower low and lower high formation
but price movement on down side is bit slow and steady
if price reacts on 2nd poi but,
does not break the recent (internal lower low) of 141.500
and makes higher low this make the short trade very choppy mind exhaustion
2. for long side trader price might defend the low of 141.500 well and breaks above the both POI wait for the retracement
or
let the price complete the chart pattern of CUP AND HANDLE
(well the chart pattern is just a assumption do not trade before the completion)
My Today's Learning
candle CLOSE & pattern COMPELETION is the key
USD/JPY Trade Setup1. Trade pullback ?
>>> let price get back to POI for entry with sl above POI
(offers good R:R)
>>> follow the lower high lower lows pattern
>>> exit on price switching to higher low
2. Conservative Trade ?
>>> wait for the price to get a DISCOUNTED ZONE
(fib 0.5 from recent swing low to high)
>>> long on swing making higher low and higher high
(avoid entering direct on 0.5 without confluence)
(previous trade got out with small SL, then we saw a parabolic upside this is why sl is important)
USDJPY pares weekly gains with eyes on sub-140.00 zoneUSDJPY extended a pullback from a five-week-old horizontal resistance by slipping beneath monthly horizontal support and 200-SMA, despite the latest rebound, as markets sensed the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) exit from the loose monetary policy and unimpressive US employment report. Also keeping the Yen sellers hopeful are the bearish MACD signals and downward-sloping RSI (14) line. With this, the bears are all set to challenge the 141.00 round figure comprising the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July downturn. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 140.30 and the 140.00 psychological magnet may test the downside move. It’s worth observing that a three-week-old rising support line, close to 139.55 at the latest, acts as the last defense of the buyers.
On the flip side, the aforementioned support-turned-resistance zone and the 200-SMA, around 141.85-142.00, challenge the USDJPY buyers before directing them to the five-week-old horizontal hurdle surrounding 144.00. In a case where the Yen pair rises past 144.00, the yearly peak marked in June around 145.10, will be in the spotlight. It should be noted that the quote’s strength past 145.10 could direct bulls toward the 150.00 round figure ahead of highlighting the next year’s top of around 152.00.
Overall, the talks of a looming BoJ rate hike or an alteration into the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy exert downside pressure on the USDJPY pair but the US inflation is on the cards and can help the pair register another positive week. Hence, it's advisable to be cautious while trading the Yen pair.
Make Money with USDJPYHello Everyone
Here is another update from Trading Idea, few days back we have provided forecast of upcoming bullish cycle in USDJPY, so this is just the update of counts of cycle.
If you like the idea, than kindly boost and share it with others and help us.
Also if you have any query than don't hesitate to ask us.
This is the actual Forecast. on 2/08/20223.
USDJPY breaks immediate support despite BoJ inactionUSDJPY appears well-set to reverse the previous weekly gains as it reverses from a three-week-old descending resistance line surrounding 141.00. Also adding strength to the downside bias could be the pair’s break of a fortnight-old support line’s break, as well as bearish MACD signals. However, the below 50.0 levels of the RSI challenges the Yen pair as US Dollar bulls flex muscles ahead of the Fed’s favorite inflation clue, namely the Core PCE Price Index. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s recovery remains elusive below 141.00 while the 200-SMA and multiple technical levels marked since June 19 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July downside together constitute the 142.00-10 area as a tough nut to crack for the bulls.
On the contrary, USDJPY sellers need validation from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 139.00 to rule further. Should the Yen pair remains bearish past 139.00, tops marked in March and May around 137.70 and the monthly low near 137.25 will act as the final defenses of the major currency pair. If at all the quote drops beneath 137.25, May’s bottom of near 133.50 and the 130.00 threshold will lure the sellers.
Overall, USDJPY is likely to add to the weekly gains but US data appears crucial to watch for clear directions.
USDJPY rebound appears overdueUSDJPY dropped in the last two consecutive weeks but ended Friday on a positive note as it bounced off a convergence of the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA. Adding strength to the hopes of recovery is the oversold RSI and the pair’s closing beyond a seven-month-old horizontal support zone, around 137.90-138.20. That said, the 140.00 round figure appears immediate hurdle to cross for the Yen pair buyers to retake control, a break of which needs validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to January 2023 downside, near 142.50, to confirm a bullish trend. In that case, the previous monthly high of 145.00 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of near 146.70 hold the key for the run-up targeting the 150.00 psychological magnet and then toward the last yearly high of near 152.00.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned DMA convergence, surrounding 137.00, appears a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bears. Following that, an ascending support line stretched from mid-January 2023, near 135.30, will act as the last defense of the Yen pair buyers. Should the risk-barometer pair remains bearish past 135.30, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and March’s low, respectively near 133.00 and 129.65, will be in the spotlight.
Overall, USDJPY bears seem running out of steam but the road toward the north appears long and bumpy.