USDJPY is ready to refresh multi-month lowEven if the USDJPY pair posted the biggest weekly gains in seven in the last, it remains inside a bearish channel. Additionally keeping the Yen pair sellers hopeful is the quote’s repeated failures to cross the 100-SMA. That said, the quote currently drops towards a one-week-old support line, close to 128.00. However, the May 2022 low will join the lower line of a five-week-old descending trend channel, near 126.35-30, to pose as a tough nut to crack for the bears. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 126.30, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the 120.00 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out.
Alternatively, USDJPY can witness short-term buying in case of a successful upside break of the 100-SMA, close to 130.75. Following that, the top line of the stated bearish channel, around 132.50, will be important for the Yen pair buyers to watch. It should be noted that the 200-SMA level surrounding 132.85 and the 133.00 round figure act as additional upside filters before giving control to the bulls.
Hence, USDJPY bears are in the driver’s seat even if the 126.35-30 support confluence challenges further downside.
USDJPY
USDJPY Key Level Support@ 128.82Dollar remains unloved; sterling drops on weak retail sales
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trade Friday, remaining around seven-month lows amid concerns of a U.S. economic slowdown, while sterling retreated after weak retail sales data.
At 03:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, edged 0.1% lower at 101.750, just above the seven-month low of 101.51 seen on Wednesday.
The index is down 1.3% this year after sharp losses in the last quarter of 2022 as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rate rises amid signs inflation has peaked.
At the same time, U.S. data this week have suggested the world's biggest economy was slowing, with retail sales dropping 1.1% on the month in December, industrial production falling 0.7%, and manufacturing production down 1.3%.
“This is the third consecutive month of contraction in industrial activity with output declines looking broad-based,” analysts at ING said, in a note. “Coming on the back of the weakness in retail sales, the steep drop in industrial production and news of more job lay-offs adds to fears the U.S. could already be in recession.”
Elsewhere, GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.2372 after U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, dropping by 1%, much weaker than the predicted 0.5% monthly rise.
"Retail sales dropped again in December with feedback suggesting consumers cut back on their Christmas shopping due to affordability concerns," Heather Bovill, the Office of National Statistics' deputy director for surveys and economic indicators, said.
EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.0850, trading around levels not seen since early April 2022, after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, that inflation figures remained "way too high", reiterating the need for aggressive monetary policy decisions.
USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 128.81 after Japan's core consumer prices rose 4.0% in December from a year earlier, double the central bank's 2% target.
Trading in the yen has been volatile of late amid expectations that the BOJ will soon end its ultra-easy monetary policy in the near future.
USDJPY bears keep driver’s seat despite BoJ-led rallyDespite rising nearly 300 pips following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) inaction, the USDJPY pair remains on the bear’s radar as it is yet to cross a four-month-long descending trend line resistance, around 131.10-15 by the press time. That said, the RSI’s rebound from the conditions also intraday buyers. It’s worth noting that the 50-DMA pierces the 200-DMA from above and portrays a bear cross on the daily chart, which in turn suggests the quote’s further downside unless the pair rises past the 200-DMA hurdle surrounding 136.65.
Alternatively, lows marked during May 2022 surrounding 126.35 precede the 125.00 threshold to challenge USDJPY bears, not to forget the oversold RSI conditions. In a case where the pair bears ignore RSI conditions and dominate past 125.00, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the late March low, respectively around 122.45 and 121.30, could act as the last defenses of the buyers before directing them to the February 2022 bottom of 114.40.
Overall, the bear cross on the daily chart contrasts the BoJ’s inaction and keeps sellers hopeful.
Approach towards USDJPY Long.Hello Traders!
It's a simple trade today. Very basic . Sometimes we tend to complicate the market when all it needs is simplification.
1. Falling wedge pattern with trend respected.
2. A comfirmation in 30 min tf (W pattern) and 2hr tf ( indecision candle and then a bullish reversal candle).
3. But still, as a precautionary measure, we'll wait for the the current high to be broken. Better safe than sorry!
Do use proper risk management.
Happy Trading!
Profits,
Market's Mechanic.
My Approach to USDJPY Long.Hello Traders!
1. I see a potential head and shoulder on the USDJPY chart.
2. It's still a pattern in the making and hence makes it a bit of a risky trade but definitely worth a shot as the market stands on a major support on the daily TF and has been consolidating in the region for quite some time now.
3. Also, as per my trade, we are entering at the very low of the zone, thus reducing our risk significantly .
Do use proper risk management.
Happy Trading!
Profits,
Market's Mechanic.
USDJPY recovery remains doubtfulUSDJPY consolidates the biggest daily loss in 14 years while positing a gradual rebound from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its May-October upside. The recovery moves also gain support from the RSI’s bounce off the oversold territory. However, the early month low near 133.65 challenges the immediate upside, a break of which could validation the Yen pair’s further advances towards a convergence of the 200-DMA and a two-month-old descending resistance line, close to 136.00. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 136.00, the previous support line from, close to 138.80-85, will be crucial as a break of which could welcome bulls.
Alternatively, a daily closing below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near 131.80 precedes the August 2022 low near 130.40 to challenge the USDJPY bears. Also acting as a downside filter is the 130.00 round figure. Should the pair sellers keep the reins past 130.00, multiple hurdles near 128.30 could offer intermediate halts during the quote’s anticipated south run towards May’s low of 126.35.
Overall, USDJPY bears are taking a breather and still hold control despite the latest corrective bounce.
#USDJPY it's possible to buy#USDJPY waiting for retracement and Price trading in nearby 4hr support area and waiting for bullish candlesticks formed it will take entry for above the bullish candlestick and it will go for the next level of resistance
Why we like it:
Price is trading in nearby 4hr support area
Waiting for bullish candlesticks formed
possible to move the next resistance area
waiting for retracement
1st support:
128.010
Next Zone area & horizontal swing Low support
1st Resistance
136.400
Zone area & horizontal swing high resistance
Daily Resistance @ 133.90 , Keep SELLING@ 133.90 U.S. dollar weakens as risk appetite rises with data showing slowdown
The dollar slid against most currencies in choppy, thin trading on Friday as data signaled that the U.S. economy is cooling a bit, reinforcing expectations of smaller interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve and improving investors' risk appetite.
USDJPY prints bear flag as Bank of Japan gains attentionUSDJPY is likely to end 2022 on a negative note, despite bracing for the biggest yearly run-up since 2013. However, the Yen pair portrays a bearish chart pattern, a bear flag on the four-hour play as traders keep their eyes on the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Given the downbeat oscillators and hawkish expectations from the BOJ, the bearish chart formation amplifies the downside expectations. As a result, bears could wait for a clear downside break of 134.90, to refresh the monthly low of 133.60. In that case, the August 2020 low near 130.40 and the 130.00 psychological magnet will gain major attention during the south run aiming for the theoretical target surrounding 120.00.
Meanwhile, the top line of the stated bear channel, close to 138.50, restricts short-term USDJPY recovery moves. A clear upside break of the same will defy the bearish chart pattern and could poke the 200-SMA surrounding 140.80. In a case where the Yen pair buyers manage to cross the last hurdle, namely the 200-SMA, late November swing high near 142.25 and the 145.20 resistance could flash on their radars.
Overall, USDJPY is on the bear’s radar after two years of a bullish move.
200-DMA holds the gate for USDJPY bearsUSDJPY fades bounce off the 200-DMA as it failed to cross the previous support line from late May. However, nearly oversold RSI challenges the sellers and hence a short-term consolidation between the 200-DMA and the support-turned-resistance line, respectively around 135.00 and 138.00, can’t be ruled out. Even if the quote rises past the 138.00 round figure, the 21-DMA could challenge the buyers at around 138.50. It’s worth noting that a seven-week-old descending trend line joins the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-October upside, near 139.15-20, to act as the last defense of sellers. In a case where the yen pair remains firmer past 139.20, a quick run-up toward the late November high around 142.25 appears imminent.
Meanwhile, a downside break of the 200-DMA support of 135.00 won’t hesitate to refresh the monthly low, currently around 133.60. Following that, the August month low near 130.40 and the 130.00 round figure can be witnessed. Should the quote remains bearish past 130.00, May’s bottom of 126.35 will lure the USDJPY bears.
Overall, USDJPY is heading lower as the key week begins. However, it all depends upon the US inflation and Fed meeting.
#USDJPY it's possible to buy#USDJPY waiting for retracement and Price trading in nearby 4hr support area and waiting for bullish candlesticks formed it will take entry for above the bullish candlestick and it will go for the next level of resistance
Why we like it:
Price is trading in nearby 4hr support area
Waiting for bullish candlesticks formed
possible to move the next resistance area
waiting for retracement
1st support:
133.010
Next Zone area & horizontal swing Low support
1st Resistance
140.800
Zone area & horizontal swing high resistance
#USDJPY it's possible to buy#USDJPY waiting for retracement and Price trading in nearby 4hr support area and waiting for bullish candlesticks formed it will take entry for above the bullish candlestick and it will go for the next level of resistance
Why we like it:
Price is trading in nearby 4hr support area
Waiting for bullish candlesticks formed
possible to move the next resistance area
waiting for retracement
1st support:
133.010
Next Zone area & horizontal swing Low support
1st Resistance
140.800
Zone area & horizontal swing high resistance
USDJPY has more room towards the south as it breaks 200-DMAUSDJPY is under immense pressure as it breaks the 200-DMA support, as well as marks the 3.5-month low. Even though the oversold RSI suggests a mild corrective bounce, the trend appears bearish after it broke an upward-sloping support line from late May. That said, the bears currently aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May-October upside, around 132.00. If the quote fails to rebound from the key Fibonacci retracement level, the August month’s low near 130.40 and the 130.00 round figure may act as the last defense of the buyers.
Alternatively, recovery moves need to provide a daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level of 134.60 to tease intraday buyers. Even so, a corrective bounce needs to cross the 137.40 resistance confluence comprising the previous support line from May and a monthly descending trend line. Should the quote rises past 137.40, another trend line from October 21, close to 140.25, will be crucial before giving control to buyers.
Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness further downside towards 132.00 but further downside appears bumpy.