Usdjpylongsetup
USDJPY 1H BUY PROJECTION 19.09.24Reason for Bullish
USDJPY Correlation
In fact, what drives the USD/JPY pair the most is monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the BoJ and risk sentiment. In normal times, when there's risk on sentiment you can see the USD/JPY appreciating all else being equal, while during risk off flows you can see the JPY gaining strength.
USD JPY trade setup price is reversing from 149.578 without testing resistance which mean a lack of buying liquidity
the following previous green long candles left behind imbalance which have created fair value area
with applying fib to draw the PD area
149 to 148.781 is above discount zone which will hold less impact
whereas 148.500 to 148.300 is the zone where we can look for trade and for the target of 149.995 and stop loss based on risk taking capability
USD-JPY Trade Setupprice is at resistance zone of 151.144 and 151.380
after the recent break of structure there is open order block to restest
also there will be small liquid or inducement zone that need to be triggered
for next upside
150.432 and 150.246 is the buying area
with stop loss of 150 rd figure
and target of 151.500
with risk to reward 1:3
condition to avoid if price reach 151.500 first before coming towards our buying zone then the trade we be cancelled
USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold? USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold?
In September of last year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a move in the market to strengthen its currency when it reached 145 against the USD, marking the first such intervention since 1998. This action was taken following the BOJ's decision to maintain an extremely accommodative policy (a policy that is yet to change still). The BOJ intervened once more in October when the yen further plummeted to its lowest level in 32 years, reaching 151.94 against the dollar.
At present, investors hold a substantial short position in the yen, valued at $9.793 billion, representing the largest such position in the USDJPY since May 2022. This value has nearly doubled in just the past three months. Notably, former Japanese Vice Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara has suggested that the USDJPY could reach 160 before the BOJ intervenes once again.
However, the USDJPY has recently built a bit of a buffer between itself and whatever the intervention threshold is for the BoJ. Over the past two trading days, the US dollar has weakened, largely due to remarks made by Federal Reserve officials. These statements have strengthened the belief that the US central bank is nearing the end of its tightening phase.
It is widely anticipated that Fed policymakers will implement a rate increase during their upcoming meeting this month, which would set the policy rate range at 5.25% to 5.50%. However, the timing of any subsequent rate hikes remains uncertain. There are questions whether they will raise rates again in September, delay until November, or maintain the current stance and allow inflation to naturally subside over time.
Consequently, the US dollar has experienced a decline against the yen, reaching a low of 141.32 yen, the lowest level observed since June 21. Currently, it is down 0.5% at 141.328. This drop follows a decrease of nearly 1.3% seen last Friday when the US nonfarm payrolls for June fell short of market expectations at 209,000.
USDJPYDear traders,
As I have been accustomed to in recent months and this time my technical analysis had an accuracy rate of over 95% and I will try to continue to keep this percentage as long as possible
As I said in the last weeks .. s I said UJ rejected from the Fibonacci 0.5 ... it went down in the area 108,600 from where it rejected again and goes again to the Fibonacci 0.5 area making a range between these values!
In the next period I expect this range to continue and I will play between the Fibonacci 0.5 and Fib 0.382 areas until the first closing on the chart for a week outside these values.
THIS WEEK...as I said last week, UJ remained in the range between 0.5 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels, which I think will reach this week!
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*This information is not a Financial Advice.
USDJPY
Dear traders,
As I have been accustomed to in recent months and this time my technical analysis had an accuracy rate of over 95% and I will try to continue to keep this percentage as long as possible
As I said in the last weeks .., UJ has forced the trend line formed in recent years and strongly rejected!
UJ is in a range area between 110,200 and 108,200 but as you can see from the trend line for 1 week and from the Fibonacci for 1 month ... it is a lowering range reason why I will continue to look for SELL even if UJ will test the trend line again! |
However ... a close even for 1 day above the trend line forces me to think of BUY until the Fibonacci 0.5 area from where ... DOWN AGAIN
THIS WEEK...UJ forced the Fibonacci 0.5 zone from where it rejected and re-entered the range zone we were talking about in the past weeks!
I still bet on a descent to the 108,460 area and from there UP AGAIN
however ... a closure even for 1 day over the 111,000 area makes me think again of BUY up to the 12,800 area which is my final target for this period!
NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful!
GREAT ATTENTION:
*This information is not a Financial Advice.