USDJPY - RETEST OF SUPPORT BREAKDOWN. SELLING AHEAD?Symbol - USDJPY
USDJPY is unable to maintain its uptrend for the time being. Speculation about potential actions from the Bank of Japan is expected to surface. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to strengthen. The 158.45 level represents a significant resistance formed by bears, who are still exerting pressure on the market. This week, we anticipate active measures from the Bank of Japan, particularly an interest rate hike. While such actions are relatively rare, they could provide strong support for the currency pair. If Japan proceeds with this move, the pair may continue its correction from the 0.5 - 0.7 Fibonacci levels. In this case, key targets could include the zones at 153.25 and 152
Resistance levels: 156.55, 157.22
Support level: 155
A price drop below 155 could trigger aggressive selling. The rate decision in Japan is set for Friday, and until then, the price may remain in a consolidation phase.
Usdjpytrade
Asian currencies hit bottom: Pressure from the FedUSD Rises on U.S. Economic Strength and Trump’s Tax Policies, Dragging Asian Currencies to a 20-Year Low
Asian currencies fell to their lowest levels in 20 years as the USD maintained its strong position, fueled by the U.S.'s superior economic growth and President-elect Donald Trump's commitment to raising import taxes.
The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index dropped to 89.0409 on Monday, the lowest since data began in 2006. The USD rally has been supported by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate trajectories and expectations that Trump’s tax policies will exert inflationary pressures.
“USD will continue to appreciate against Asian currencies, but the degree will vary across countries,” said Alvin T. Tan, Head of FX Strategy at the Royal Bank of Canada. He noted that if U.S. trade protectionism materializes, it could be a "game-changer." Asian central banks might respond by allowing their currencies to depreciate in a controlled manner.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is drawing global investors’ attention as one of the few major central banks maintaining a tight monetary policy amidst a trend of easing. With plans to hike interest rates at least once in 2025, BoJ’s move is expected to have positive effects on the banking sector.
Notably, while BoJ intends to raise rates, the interest rate gap between Japan and major economies, especially the U.S., is expected to remain significant. This could put downward pressure on the yen, while simultaneously providing a competitive advantage to Japanese exporters. However, a potential risk lies in increased selling pressure on Japanese government bonds if BoJ opts for quantitative tightening.
Trading Strategy
The main trend for USDJPY remains strongly bullish in the long term, so it’s recommended to focus on buying at lower support levels to optimize profits and align with the dominant trend.
Strategy
Buy Zone: 157.200
Stop Loss (SL): 156.600
Take Profit (TP): 157.900
Sell Zone: 158.800
Stop Loss (SL): 159.300
Take Profit (TP): 158.000
Pay attention to full TP SL to protect your trading account
USD/JPY Trade Setup1. Trade pullback ?
>>> let price get back to POI for entry with sl above POI
(offers good R:R)
>>> follow the lower high lower lows pattern
>>> exit on price switching to higher low
2. Conservative Trade ?
>>> wait for the price to get a DISCOUNTED ZONE
(fib 0.5 from recent swing low to high)
>>> long on swing making higher low and higher high
(avoid entering direct on 0.5 without confluence)
(previous trade got out with small SL, then we saw a parabolic upside this is why sl is important)