DJ FXCM Index
5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This Week
The US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week:
- US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default. He has now called on Congress to pass the deal asap. Fitch ratings will remove the “negative watch” rating on the United States when the deal passes or looks likely to pass congress.
- The debt ceiling agreement has potentially weakened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, leading to an increase in risk appetite in global markets.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, rose by 4.4% in April compared to the previous year, up from the 4.2% increase observed in March. This development has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June.
- Due to the Memorial Day weekend in the US, as well as bank holidays in Europe and the UK, Monday will experience reduced market liquidity. Additionally, institutions are preparing for month-end trading on Wednesday, which could introduce more volatility.
- The US payrolls report for May will be released on June 2nd. Recent months have consistently shown better-than-expected job figures. It is anticipated that this week's job numbers will indicate an addition of 180,000 jobs, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. A tighter job market will reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with strong wage data also providing support if the actual figures surpass estimates.
USD/JPY buy idea sharingBased on the information provided, you are planning to enter a trade in the USD/JPY currency pair. Here's an explanation of the trade for publishing:
Trade Details:
- Symbol: USD/JPY
- Entry Price: 139.690
- Target Prices: 139.842 and 140.001
- Stop Loss: 139.582
Rationale for Entering the Trade:
You have decided to enter this trade based on two factors: support at 139.5 and a potential trendline breakout.
1. Support at 139.5:
You believe that the exchange rate of USD/JPY has reached a level of support at 139.5. Support is a price level at which buying pressure is expected to outweigh selling pressure, potentially leading to a price reversal or a bounce. By entering the trade near this support level, you anticipate that the price will move in a favorable direction.
2. Trendline Breakout:
Additionally, you have observed a trendline on the price chart of USD/JPY, and you expect a potential breakout to occur. A trendline is a line that connects consecutive higher lows or lower highs, indicating the direction of the prevailing trend. A breakout refers to a situation where the price moves beyond the trendline, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment and the continuation of a new trend. Based on your analysis, you believe that the price is likely to break out above the trendline, which has influenced your decision to enter the trade.
Trade Parameters:
- Entry Price: You plan to enter the trade at 139.690, which means you will buy USD/JPY at this exchange rate.
- Target Prices: You have set two target prices for this trade. The first target is 139.842, and the second target is 140.001. These levels represent your profit-taking points, where you aim to sell the USD/JPY and realize gains.
- Stop Loss: To manage potential losses, you have implemented a stop loss order at 139.582. If the price reaches this level, your trade will be automatically closed to limit your downside risk.
Please note that trading involves risks, and this trade should be evaluated in the context of your own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and market conditions. It's essential to conduct thorough analysis and consider other factors such as market news, economic indicators, and overall market sentiment before making trading decisions. FX:USDJPY
Short on EURUSD pairIn daily chart EURUSD formed the bearish candle with strong selling Volume candle.
In 4hr Time frame it has formed Falling Wedge Pattern and make breakdown for downside.
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Risk and reward In this trade will be 6:91
Entry At : 1.09761
Sl will be : 1.10307
Target 1 : 1.08394
Target 2 : 1.07164
Final Target : 1.05990
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This is education purpose trade.
Please take advice from your financial adviser before taking any trade in live market.
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U.S.Dollar Index possible Elliott wave counts of DXYHello Friends,
Here we have shared possible Elliott wave counts plotted on chart of U.S. Dollar Index - DXY on daily time frame, which clearly indicates that after top of September 2022 we are in corrective phase as per Elliott wave structures, and as per wave counts we can see that we had completed wave ((3)) and now possibly we are in second half of wave ((4)) in which we had completed wave (A)-(B) and currently we are unfolding wave (C), in wave (C) we should have five subdivisions and we had completed wave 1 and now we are in wave 2 which is contra trend, we are assuming again a reversal signals to start again journey towards south direction as a wave 3-4-& 5, to complete wave (C) of bigger degree wave ((4)).
Overall it's looking very good candidate to go short on rise along with invalidation levels of 105.883, because as per wave principles wave 2 will never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
My studies are for educational purpose only, Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing, I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Thanks 💕
Price below mass psychological cloud level (Bearish Bias on daily)
Daily MACD positive, but below resistance and zero line
Weekly MACD negative
Monthly MACD negative
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
EURGBP Setup in progress , if breakout this go for LongEURGBP testing the trendline while it has already broken in OCTAFX broker , check it out with focus
Take a long postion with a risk/reward ration of 1:3 .
Also COT data is in favor:-
EUR - 163,338 Net positions
GBP - 2,398 Net positions
While many short positions has been closed in GBP , but it still may go long before a reversal
DXY - FOMC Ahead - What To ExpectTVC:DXY is approaching a key daily structure support
Levels of 103.4 to 103.8, is the zone to focus on
Depending on the reaction of the market to FOMC meeting, one can anticipate 2 potential scenarios to emerge -
1) If price breaks the resistance of a falling wedge pattern on DTF, a bullish move can be expected
2) If price breaks the support of a falling wedge pattern and closes below the green support zone marked, a bearish move can be expected
Everything NOW DEPENDS on the FOMC meeting. My bet is DXY will consolidate here for a while and then rise again for a while before breaking downside since its also make a H&S pattern on weekly timeframe.
Let's see how the story develops. Best wishes!
Disclaimer -
- The opinions expressed here are my own. This is for my own records as well as what I see on charts.
- If you are referring to this, please keep in mind that it is only for educational and research purposes.
- Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
- You must accept responsibility for any decision you make. DO NOT TAKE THIS AS AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION.
- It's your hard-earned cash. Trade / Invest wisely, keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance.
- Before investing, conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor.
TIA!
USDINRIn the past times, USDINR is trying to hold its level and now we can see more rise above the levels
Characteristics of Triangle pattern
A pattern that has the following characteristics is more effective.
+ Before breaking out, prices need to touch both resistance and support levels at least twice each for the pattern to take effect.
+ This pattern gives a buy signal (breaking out of the resistance) which is more effective than a sell signal (breaking out of the support).
How to enter a trade is as follows.
When the price breaks out of the resistance, open a UP order. You can open the order as follows:
+ Entry Point: When the candlestick finishes breaking out of the resistance.
+ Stop-Loss: At the level where the price last hit the support before breaking out.
+ Take-Profit: From the entry point, the length is equal to the widest price amplitude generated within the Triangle.
#triangle