Investing is the ability to say "no" so that you can say "yes"Have a wonderful day, my dear friends!
Let's get acquainted. My name is Capy. Someday I will tell you my stunning life story, and how fate has tied me to investing. I can't quite believe it myself sometimes... But that's not what today is about.
Today I'm starting a series of posts to introduce you to my vision and strategy in the very multifaceted and insanely interesting topic of stock investing.
Let's start by figuring out why you should be an investor?
Many people think that investors are some kind of Wall Street wolves who trade stocks of companies and make unimaginable amounts of money on it. I'm sure there are those too. But, in fact, investing has long ceased to be the monopoly of the employees of banks, brokerage companies or big businessmen.
Investing is available to absolutely everyone who plans their wealth and has the basic knowledge obtained at university. Or aspires to learn this indomitable beast. This is the reason I started this blog: to help everyone who wants to understand and share my ready-made strategy that you can apply in the process of investing.
It's worth saying that every one of us has done the act of investing at least once in our lives, perhaps without even realizing it. For example, when placing money on a bank deposit (the well-known bank deposit), renting out real estate, opening a business or just learning. All these actions have one common formula: you give something away now in order to get it back in the future and, in addition, to make a profit.
When you rent out an apartment, you cannot live in it because you have given it to other people to use. But when the lease expires, you'll get your apartment back, plus a profit in the form of the rent you've been receiving all that time.
When you start a business, you put money into it so you can pay it back later through the proceeds. And, of course, you expect the returns to exceed the costs invested.
When you invest in education, you plan to use what you have learned to achieve something, whether it's getting a job or enriching your inner world.
It is the expectation of profit that is the main motivating factor for the investor and the main purpose of the investment.
If you give someone an apple and they give it back to you after a while, that's not an investment. And if you give someone an apple, and after some time you get two apples back - you are already an investor, because you made a profit in the form of an additional apple.
The upcoming series of posts will focus on one of the investment options - namely, investing in stocks of companies. I plan to teach you how to approach each trade wisely and in a measured way to keep you from engaging in short-term speculation that looks like a casino game.
Going back to our formula, a stock investment is a transfer of your money to a particular company in exchange for a stake in its business. The purpose of these actions is to make a profit in the future from the sale of the shares (in the case of buying cheaper and selling higher), or the second option - to receive dividends. Dividends are when the company shares with you a portion of the profits in proportion to your share in the business. But we will focus on the first option to make a profit, that is "buy cheaper - sell more expensive". And the dividends to consider as a nice bonus to this strategy.
I will publish a new post soon. Let's talk about approaches that will allow you to find funds for investment.
Valueinvesting
My crazy partner is Mr. Market!We are used to the fact that the world's most prominent investors are known for their outstanding deals, returns and stability of results over a long time horizon. Yes, all this is certainly a sign of excellence, but no investor has gained his popularity through books. The books he wrote.
This man created his writings back in the 1930s and 1940s, but they still inspire anyone who has taken the path of smart stock investing. You've probably guessed by now who we're talking about. It's the humble author of The Intelligent Investor and Warren Buffett's teacher, Benjamin Graham.
It's amazing that after many years, this book is still considered the bible of investing on the basis of fundamental analysis - Graham wrote such a thorough description of how a person investing in stocks should think. His insight into the market can be useful to anyone who is exposed to this chaotic environment.
To understand Graham's philosophy, imagine that the market is your business partner "Mr. Market." Every day he stops by your office to visit and offer you a deal on your mutual company stock. Sometimes he wants to buy your stock, sometimes he wants to sell his own. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his gut. When he panics and is afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoric and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. That's the kind of crazy partner you have. Why is he acting this way? According to Graham, this is the behavior of all investors who don't understand the real value of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day.
The task of the prudent investor is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for another visit from the crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stock at an extremely low price - take it and wish him luck. If he begs to sell him the stock and calls an unusually generous price - sell it and wish him luck.
Of course, after a while, it may turn out that Mr. Market was not bad at all and made a very profitable deal with you. But the fact is that on the long horizon of time his luck will be washed away by a series of stupid things he will inevitably do. As for you, rest assured that tomorrow you will meet another Mister. So, as Graham has taught us, is teaching us, and will continue to teach us - you just have to be ready for it. Understanding the fundamental value of the company, this meeting will bring you nothing but pleasure!
Price is what you pay, but value is what you getWarren Buffett is the most successful stock investor in the history of the world. Of course, which we know now. "The Oracle of Omaha" - that's what fans of his "magical instinct" call Buffett. But is that the point?
As an 11-year-old child, little Warren was inspired by the possibilities of the stock market and invited his sister to participate in his first investment. These were preferred shares of Cities Service. The sister agreed to take the risk and Warren bought 3 shares at $38.25. But then, the wave of enthusiasm turned to disappointment and guilt - the shares fell to $27. Buffett's first investment "enterprise" lost 29% of the amount of investments that were borrowed. We can only imagine how the young investor felt at that moment, but I think this feeling is familiar to many: positive expectations clashed with the harsh reality of the stock market. Warren didn't sell shares. But when the price for them reached $40, he did it instantly. Apparently, considering this whole undertaking a mistake. The income was 4.6%, the sister received her money back. Everything worked out. Surprisingly, Cities Service's share price rose to $202 a few days later. Or +428%, Warren!
The entire subsequent history of Warren Buffett confirms that he drew the right conclusions from the experience of his childhood. He realized that the price on the stock exchange may not reflect the value of the company itself. Buffett began to study accounting, the principles of fundamental analysis of enterprises, the ideas of Benjamin Graham. This allowed him to develop an approach that consisted in determining the real value of the company, different from the one that we see on the stock exchange.
"Price is what you pay, but value is what you get".
From myself I will add: and if the value is higher than the price - such an investment is considered reasonable.
In the chart above, the price history of Buffett's main holding company, Berkshire Hathaway. As well as the S&P500 index. As you can see, his company "overtakes" the index, which means it shows much better performance than the average value of 500 US companies.
Perhaps, in addition to deep analysis of the companies' business, Buffett's unique investor instinct helps, I don't know. But the fact that he is a real Wizard of our time is an indisputable fact for me.
#HSCL - INVESTMENT PICKABOUT
Himadri Speciality Chemical is primarily engaged in the manufacturing of carbon materials and chemicals. It is the No.1 coal pitch manufacturer in India and is the only company to manufacture advanced carbon material in India. It is also the largest player in Naphthalene and SNF in India.
KEY POINTS
Product Portfolio
It manufactures a wide range of carbon materials and chemicals. Its products include coal tar pitch, carbon black, specialty carbon black (SCB) Naphthalene, Advanced carbon material, SNF (Sulphonated Naphthalene Formaldehyde), and specialty oils. It has transformed its portfolio from low-value products to high-valued products over the years for higher margins.
Manufacturing Capabilities
Capacity :-
Coal Tar Distillation - 5,00,000 MTPA
Carbon Black - 120,000 MTPA
Specialty Carbon Black - 60,000 MTPA
SNF - 68,000 MTPA
The company owns 8 manufacturing facilities in India out of which 4 are located in West Bengal. It also owns a manufacturing unit in China. It recently started manufacturing specialty carbon black after expansion in FY20. It also planning an advanced carbon project of 20,000 MTPA at a project cost of ~300 crores.
Its coal tar distillation plant in West Bengal is the largest in India with a capacity of 500,000 MTPA (metric tonnes) that produces various grades of coal pitch and also produces naphthalene for further processing of SNF.
Sales Volume
The company recorded a sales volume of ~320,000 MTPA of carbon materials and chemicals in FY20.
Geographical Revenue Breakup
Presently, the company earns ~92% of its revenues from sales within India and the rest 8% from sales outside India.
Industrial Exposure
The company is exposed to various industries namely steel, aluminum, automotive, plastics, rubber, and infrastructure development.
Clientele Base
Its client base includes Vedanta, Hindalco, Balco, Nalco, Alcoa, graphite India, MRF, apollo tyres, CEAT, Goodyear, Pidilite, Fosroc, BASF, and others.
PERSONALLY EXPECTING 300__500% ROI NSE:HSCL
#TPLPLASTEH - INVESTMENT PICKABOUT
TPL Plastech Ltd is engaged in the business of manufacturing polymer-based industrial packaging products like Drums and Jerry cans. It caters to customers in industries like Chemicals, Petrochemicals, Specialty Chemicals, Plasticizers, pharmaceuticals, FMCG, Food Products, etc.
KEY POINTS
Product Portfolio
Narrow Mouth Drums: Used for storing liquid chemicals and lube oils with capacities ranging between 210-250 liter
Narrow Mouth & Wide Mouth Carboys: Used in Specialty Chemical and Adhesives industry for storing semi-liquid powder and paste type products with capacities ranging between 25-120 liter
Open Top Drums: Used in Dyestuff, Food, Pharma industry for storing packing powder, paste type, semi-liquid and solid products in capacities ranging between 35-235 liter
Customer Profile
The company caters to 250+ customers in various industries like Chemicals, Petrochemicals, Specialty Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, FMCG, etc. Some notable customers include Gulf, Godrej Industries, Aarti Industries, Dabur, Valiant Organics, Jubilant Lifesciences, Amul, KLJ Group, etc.
Manufacturing Facilities
The company has a capacity of 28,000 MTPA across 6 manufacturing facilities in India. The manufacturing facilities are located in Ratlam, Vizag, Silvassa, Bhuj, Uttarakhand, and Jammu. Production in Bhuj, Ratlam, and Vizag facilities was started in 2020.
CapEx
The Co. is setting up a new manufacturing unit in Silvassa for manufacturing small packaging products with capacities ranging between 50 ml to 10 liters as Value Added Products to serve the existing customers in the segment of Pharma, FMCG, Food, etc. The Phase-1 investment of the project was 8 crores and the project was commercialized in Oct 2021.
During FY21, Co. has also incurred a CapEx of Rs. 3.8 Cr towards automation & de-bottlenecking at existing plants
Promoter
The company is promoted by Time Technoplast Ltd which is involved in the manufacturing of technology and innovation-driven polymer & composite products. It holds a 75% stake in TPL Plastech.
PERSONALLY EXPECTING 300__500% ROI NSE:TPLPLASTEH
Dilip Buildcon- Bye Bye Corporate Governance, Welcome Value?Dilip Buildcon Limited, incorporated in 2006, is presently in the business of development of infrastructure facilities on Engineering Procurement and Construction basis (EPC) and undertakes contracts from various Government and other parties and special purpose vehicles promoted by the Company.
Avadh Sugar Rounding Bottom Multiyear BreakoutSource:- Screener.in
Avadh Sugar & Energy Ltd is primarily engaged in the manufacture and sale of sugar and its by-products (molasses, bagasse and press-mud), spirits including ethanol and power. It was incorporated in March 2015 with the purpose of transferring sugar units in Uttar Pradesh of Oudh Sugar Mills Limited (Oudh) and Upper Ganges Sugar & Industries Limited (Upper Ganges) to a separate entity.
Business Division
Sugar: The Co crushed 576 lakh quintals of sugarcane in FY21 with average recovery of 10.8% against crushing of 599 lakh quintals in FY20 with average recovery of 11.5%.
Distillery: The Co uses its entire molasses output captively to produce ethanol and alcohol. During FY21, the distillery was in operation for 296 days against 285 days in FY20.
Power: The Co has bagasse-based power generation capability. It produced 19.7 crore units of power during FY21.
Revenue Split
Sugar - 85% in FY21 vs 87% in FY20
Distillery - 13% in FY21 vs 10% in FY20
Power - 2% in FY21 vs 2% in FY20
Manufacturing Capabilities
The Co has 4 sugar mills at Hargon, UP with an aggregate crushing capacity of 31,200 TCD (tons cane per day), three power cogeneration units with capacity of 74 MW and two distillery capacity of 200 KLPD.
Capex
The Co has announced a capex of 135 crores for Debottlenecking & efficiency improvement measures and expansion of Distillery capacity to 320 KLPD. The capex is going to be funded by mix of debt & internal accruals.
Reduction in Debt
The Co. reduced its Total Debt by Rs. 291 Cr from Rs. 1373 cr in Mar 21 to Rs. 1082 cr in Sep 21. [
Focus
The Co is focused on manufacturing B-Heavy ethanol, to boost overall profitability. It is also focusing on strengthening the balance sheet by reducing its debt.
RUPA CMP504 TGT992 (Buy only above 560)Very Clear Cup and Handle Formation. After Breakout Minimum Target should be 556+436= 992.
Buy only above 560 with 6-9 months Time-Frame.
SL should be kept at 540
All Prices should be adhered on a Weekly Closing Basis.
Fundamentally all Ratios and Valuations support investment rationale.
(PE-21, ROE-26, ROCE:30, OPM:19)
Disclaimer: No Buy/Sell Recommendation. Only for Information Sharing purposes.
M&M : AnalysisNSE:M_M is trading around 850 revels which is shy above Fib's Golden retracement level. The possibility of Upmove is good as well as consolidating for a few more days, buyer's accumulation will lead to upward momentum.
Market might move up till the demand zone is attained. Another possibility is Breaking down to supply zone. Chances of happening so is thin but possibility is their because of the current market scenario where NSE:NIFTY and NSE:BANKNIFTY both are falling good every day. If NSE:M_M sustains this period then upward momentum will come soon and we can see all-time highs very soon.
The imbalance zone between the rise and fall has been covered up by the market as of now, let's see what it brings on next trading session.
PS: NO analysis is 100% follow your RR and trade with head in the game.
PPS : I'll update as soon as I get into this trade.
SRT Finance : AnalysisNSE:SRTRANSFIN has been consolidating in a wide range since starting of February with good volume support at lower levels. The possibility of breaking out is good as it is testing previous highs multiple times and holding levels near its previous highs.
In addition to all this, it is having Volume support exactly at golden fib retracement levels and previous BOS levels. Even though nifty and bank nifty is falling with good volume SRT holding its higher levels is a good sign.
Soon we can see a good breakout in the SRT finance after buyers accumulation at higher levels. The possibility of following the mentioned path is good. Let's hope for the best what's coming next.
PS: Trade is looking promising then also never underestimate market it has a tendency to shock you to your very core, always risk what you can afford to lose and follow RR ratio, and Trade with your head in place. As always NO analysis is 100% effective all the time.
PPS : I'll you guys as soon as possible.
Hindustan Unilever : AnalysisNSE:HINDUNILVR has been falling for almost a week now and has touched its demand zone.
The possibility of moving up is good. Majorly there are two possibilities form here:
1) Accumulation of buyers at these levels as we have seen previously that sellers are defending highs that are made recently. that means a consolidation at this phase.
2) Moving up as it has moved down a tad bit more than expected. Forming an imbalance in between.
In either case, the market is going to go up the possibility of moving down is very thin now.
PS: Never underestimate market it has a tendency to shock you to a very core, always risk what you can afford to lose follow RR ratio, and Trade with your head in place. No analysis is 100% effective.
PPS: Im into this trade I'l update soon.
BUY HDFC BANK - SWING TRADEBuy HDFC Bank at 1545
Targets 1600, 1670++. Trail SL to avoid loss.
Small SL Below 1520 on closing basis
For Options and Big Capital Traders: Puts can be sold or At The Money Bullish Spreads can be created. Incase Sold Puts go in the money then settle by taking delivery of this stock.
PS: This is a good long term stock and can be accumulated at these levels.
Disclaimer: All charts are for educational purpose. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
Swing call for avenue supermart. Educational onlyObserving all the other oscillators and indicators, it is clearly seen that the rsi shows the uptick also the very basics of technical analysis : the candle stick shows the bullish engulfing. So combining all the basic candle stick study, the oscillator study , the trend analysis, the price action and the sentiments it was a very good swing call. Personally captured 12% move in few trading sesh.
IDFC Ltd- Nearing LongTerm Channel BreakoutIDFC has not Created any value for its shareholders in past 14 Years, However stock is trading at a inflection point Currently. Will we see the channel breakout here in IDFC? Only time will tell. However Interesting times are ahead for IDFC Ltd.
Management has talked about shareholder value creation few days back and they are serious about divestment of AMC Business, this will be value assertive for IDFC Ltd.