5th Oct ’23 - Gap-up takes out my stoploss Nifty PostmortemNifty Expiry Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only lost 6pts. Quite a rarity to see a flat close especially when we had some strong preceding moves. The recovery today gave Nifty a strong character change as well. It was looking a lot negative yesterday and further fall was looking obvious.
Nifty Daily Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “The next support level of 19310 fell short by just 0.1%. If the current momentum holds — then it should be tested and taken out by tomorrow.”. I must say - it did not go as per this plan. We not only did not break the support - but we went back and broke the resistance. Today’s move took out my stop loss and also messed around with the expiry trade.
The gap-up opening of 0.5% ~ 97pts was a true show of strength. Although I am not quite sure what changed fundamentally overnight. We did not close the gap today even though we had a slight fall towards 19486 levels. Then the 2nd leg of the boost came at 10.45 which took Nifty up by 89pts ~ 0.46%. From there we almost went sideways and closed with no further drama.
On the 1hr TF we have 3 distinct formations. A strong red candle on 3rd, a gap-down hammer on 4th, and then a doji today. If we had a full green body candle today - it would have been a morning star formation.
A morning star formation is usually a strong bullish signal that forms at the end of a bear run. Although we had a good green day today - the body of the candle was not good enough. So I am not changing my stance from bearish to bullish instead, I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow. The support and resistance levels of 19446 and 19776 still stay as it is - a break on either side will shift my stance in that direction.
