NSE NTPC stay strong in any market weakness, TP 190 with calls
As nifty is expected to go below 17300 on March 13 Market opening - NTPC could be a winner
Close to life highs, very strong buying / switching from high beta stocks
IV is very low (14%) and the call sellers could panic when the stock goes above 183 (life high) - this has been tested once already
Keep stop at 172 - which is the logical resistance and expect to see 190 within the month. Buying calls (very cheap) is the right way to trade this
Volatility
Adani Stocks, Valuations, Volatility and ConsolidationAdani Stock are in limelight after Hindenburg research. Stocks have fallen heavily after the news and FPO had been withdrawn.
Lets try to understand by combining Valuation fundamentals, Technical analysis and volatility. Also try to decode what usually happens after such wild moves.
1. Adani Stocks were on continuous rise after Covid drop
2. Valuations of some of Adani group stock reached sky high. PE multiples of some of the stocks are still above 100.
3. When stock makes top with extreme valuations there is chance of sharp correction.
4. There is no definite method to identify stock top yet from confluence of price action, volume and indicators one can identify them like Candlestick reversal pattern, Divergence on weekly or daily charts on MACD or RSI and abnormal selling volume are few to look out for.
5. Stock sharp correction is linked to volatility or Fear which can give wild moves on both up and down side
6. Volatility then gets contracted and stocks goes in long consolidation
7. It may make smaller new low but still for good amount of time it won't recover and hit fresh highs
Similar example is IRCTC check image below to understand in which phase Adani stocks are
Disclaimer: This is just educational analysis, readers shouldn't conclude this as ultimate truth and need to conduct their own studies. Stock markets are dynamic in nature as human emotions are involved. Anything and everything possible.
Disclosure: Don't own IRCTC or any Adani stocks nor have any bad will against them.
IGL - Forming Descending Triangle - Long Bet For DecemberNSE:IGL is forming descending triangle and it would be worth a long shot for Dec series. Targets are marked on the chart
SL for longs can be - 205.
Would be best to play in cash or play with long synthetic split option strategy ( Sell put at strike A ( close to SL level ) and buy call for strike b ( potential target level or ATM call option )
Let's see which way the story unfolds. Happy Trading!
Disclaimer -
- The view expressed here are my personal views. I am publishing this for my own records and what I see on charts.
- If you're referring to this, please consider this ONLY FOR educational & research purposes.
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same. DO NOT consider this as an investment suggestion.
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial advisor before investing.
TIA!