Get started

Wave Analysis

Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD August 14, 2025Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD August 14, 2025 1. Momentum Analysis • D1 timeframe: Momentum is showing signs of reversal. Although price may not reverse immediately when the two momentum lines converge, this is a clear signal that the current selling pressure is weakening. • H4 timeframe: Momentum is declining and has only formed 2 H4 candles since the reversal began. It will likely take another 2–3 H4 candles to enter the oversold zone and potentially reverse upward. • H1 timeframe: Momentum is also falling, suggesting a likely downward move during the Asian session. ________________________________________ 2. Wave Structure • On H1, price is moving in a choppy manner, indicating a corrective phase that has nearly reached its target. • However, the D1 momentum preparing to reverse upward creates two possible scenarios: Scenario 1: D1 momentum reverses upward and confirms → The uptrend could last for 4–5 days, conflicting with the current scenario of a corrective wave B. In this case, we would have an alternative scenario of an initial diagonal wave 1 as shown in the right-hand chart. Scenario 2: D1 momentum enters the oversold zone and stays there → A strong drop would be needed to confirm that the current price action is wave B. ________________________________________ 3. Two Potential Price Scenarios 1. WXY corrective pattern → Target for wave Y is around 3381. 2. Initial diagonal wave 1 → Wave 2 could decline toward 3345 before wave 3 rises again. This scenario currently aligns better with the D1 momentum signal. ________________________________________ Conclusion: At present, there is a conflict between momentum signals and wave structure. Further observation is required to determine a clearer trading plan, so no trade recommendation for today.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WavePoint_FX
Risk Management & Trading PsychologyIntroduction In the world of trading—whether it’s stocks, forex, commodities, crypto, or derivatives—success is rarely determined by who has the most “secret” indicator or complex algorithm. Instead, it often comes down to two invisible forces: Risk Management – the discipline of protecting capital and minimizing losses. Trading Psychology – the mindset, emotions, and discipline that shape decision-making. Many traders fail not because they lack knowledge, but because they lack the discipline to follow rules and the mental strength to handle stress, uncertainty, and losses. In fact, the famous trader Mark Douglas once said: “Trading is not about being right. It’s about managing money so you can stay in the game.” This guide will dive deeply into both pillars—Risk Management and Trading Psychology—because they are interconnected. Even the best strategy collapses without them. Part 1: Risk Management in Trading 1.1 What is Risk Management? Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling risks in trading to protect your capital. It’s about ensuring that no single trade or series of trades can wipe you out. It is not about avoiding risk completely (impossible in trading) — it’s about controlling and managing it wisely. 1.2 Why Risk Management is the Foundation of Trading Most traders obsess over entries, patterns, and indicators. But professional traders focus first on capital preservation. Without proper risk control: You can lose big on a single trade. Emotions take over after large losses. Recovery becomes exponentially harder. Example: If you lose 50% of your capital, you need a 100% return just to break even. That’s why avoiding large drawdowns is critical. 1.3 Core Principles of Risk Management Let’s break them down. A) Position Sizing Determine the amount of capital allocated to each trade. Common rule: Risk 1-2% of account equity per trade. Formula: Position Size = (Account Risk per Trade) / (Stop Loss in Points × Value per Point) B) Stop Losses A stop loss is a predefined exit point to cap losses. Never move your stop loss further away because of “hope.” Types: Hard Stop – placed in the market. Mental Stop – not placed in system, but requires discipline. C) Risk-Reward Ratio Compares potential reward to risk. Professional traders often aim for R:R of 1:2 or higher. Even with a win rate of 40%, a good R:R can make you profitable. D) Diversification Don’t put all capital in one asset or sector. Spread exposure to reduce the impact of one bad move. E) Avoid Overleveraging Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Many accounts blow up because traders use excessive leverage. 1.4 Advanced Risk Management Concepts A) Maximum Drawdown Limit Set a personal limit (e.g., 15% of total equity). Stop trading if hit, review strategy, and reassess. B) Kelly Criterion Mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing based on win probability and payoff ratio. C) Volatility-Based Position Sizing Adjust trade size based on market volatility (e.g., ATR – Average True Range). D) Hedging Using related instruments to offset risk (e.g., buying gold when stocks are falling). 1.5 Common Risk Management Mistakes No stop loss – leads to catastrophic losses. Overtrading – too many positions at once increases risk exposure. Risking too much on one trade – emotional pressure skyrockets. Averaging down – adding to losing positions without a plan. Ignoring correlation – multiple trades moving in the same direction increase risk. Part 2: Trading Psychology 2.1 Why Psychology Matters in Trading In theory, trading is simple—buy low, sell high. In reality, human emotions complicate the process: Fear causes you to exit early. Greed makes you overtrade. Hope keeps you in losing trades. Overconfidence leads to oversized bets. The market doesn’t just test your strategy—it tests your patience, discipline, and emotional control. 2.2 Core Psychological Challenges in Trading A) Fear Fear of losing money → hesitation to enter. Fear of missing out (FOMO) → chasing bad trades. B) Greed Leads to ignoring rules and overtrading. Causes traders to hold winning trades too long. C) Revenge Trading After a loss, trying to “win it back” quickly leads to more mistakes. D) Overconfidence Winning streaks create a false sense of invincibility. Causes overleveraging and sloppy risk management. 2.3 Building the Right Trading Mindset A) Process over Outcome Focus on following your trading plan, not just profit and loss. B) Emotional Detachment Think of trades as numbers and probabilities, not personal victories or failures. C) Patience Wait for high-probability setups rather than forcing trades. D) Adaptability Markets change—strategies need adjustment. Avoid rigid thinking. 2.4 Psychological Tools for Traders A) Journaling Record every trade: entry, exit, reason, emotions. Review regularly to spot patterns. B) Meditation & Mindfulness Reduces impulsive decisions. Improves focus. C) Pre-Trade Routine Check news, review charts, set risk levels before entering. D) Post-Trade Review Learn from both wins and losses. 2.5 How Risk Management and Psychology Connect Strong risk management reduces emotional pressure. Smaller losses keep confidence intact. Knowing your worst-case scenario is limited allows you to follow the plan calmly. Part 3: Combining Risk Management & Psychology into a Trading Plan 3.1 Components of a Trading Plan Strategy rules – when to enter/exit. Risk per trade – fixed % of capital. Max daily/weekly loss – stop trading after hitting it. Review schedule – weekly/monthly performance check. Psychological rules – avoid trading under stress or fatigue. 3.2 Example: Professional Approach Let’s say a trader has: Account: ₹10,00,000 Risk per trade: 1% (₹10,000) Stop loss: 20 points × ₹500 per point = ₹10,000 Risk-Reward ratio: 1:2 (₹10,000 risk for ₹20,000 potential gain) Even with a 40% win rate, the trader can remain profitable. 3.3 The 3 Golden Rules Preserve capital – your first goal is to survive. Follow the plan – consistency beats luck. Manage yourself – discipline is your ultimate edge. Conclusion Risk management and trading psychology are the true edge in markets. You can copy someone’s strategy, but you can’t copy their discipline or mindset. A trader with average technical skills but strong risk control and emotional discipline will outperform a brilliant analyst who cannot manage losses or emotions. The market will always test you. The question is—will you react emotionally, or will you act according to your plan? Mastering both risk management and psychology ensures that no matter what the market throws your way, you will still be standing, ready for the next opportunity.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by TechnicalExpress
2
Gold (XAU/USD) Strategy Analysis Gold (XAU/USD) Strategy Analysis: Buy/Sell Points and Potential Scenarios! Market Overview & Primary Trend As you can see on the chart, Gold (XAU/USD) on the H4 timeframe is moving clearly within a steady ascending channel. This indicates that the bullish momentum remains dominant. Therefore, in the short to medium term, I will continue to prioritize long positions to trade with this primary trend. The target for these long positions could be quite distant, as this analysis is based on the H4 timeframe, making it suitable for swing or position traders. Elliott Wave Analysis & Strategic Price Zones According to Elliott Wave theory, Gold is showing signs of forming an ABC corrective structure. The price is currently in the process of completing Wave B. I anticipate Wave C will be an upward wave, which could push the price higher and potentially reclaim the price zone created by the previous NFP news. Potential Sell Zone (Short): I have identified a clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) around the $3384 - $3390 area. This is a zone where I will consider looking for short-term sell signals (scalping) or trades based on a correction, but only with confirmation from price action. Preferred Buy Zone (Long): With the ascending channel holding, I believe the current price area is quite reasonable for considering long entries if there is a confirming signal. However, if the price breaks below this trend channel, the scenario will change. In that case, a safer buy zone would be much deeper, around the $3308 - $3315 level. Important News to Watch This Week Today, we have the PPI (Producer Price Index) data coming out during the US session. Since the recent CPI (Consumer Price Index) report was unfavorable, it's likely that the PPI data will also show signs that inflation may be easing. This will directly impact the conclusion regarding the Fed's interest rate policy and could cause significant volatility in Gold. Please pay close attention to risk management and avoid trading during the news release. Final Advice For those who are hesitant to buy at the current price due to it being quite high, waiting for a sell signal at the $3384 - $3390 zone could also be a logical option for capturing short-term profits. Finally, I wish you all a very effective and successful trading week with this analysis! Always remember that capital management is the most crucial factor.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
BTC - 13th Aug viewPrice seems to be making sub waves inside the 5th wave where we have new ATH targets open. In the sub waves price just took 2nd wave support and make 3rd wave and need to see 4th sub wave re test 120200 to 120400 support area or else make false move by breaking to 118 which is a possibility but i do not want or do not expect it to happen after such a good up move. Just want to caution so money management is taken care and do trade only with 50 to 60% capital all ways. buy the dips and sell the rallies with profits and with no greed for more and more without taking profits... we will get dips too... or at least higher low with proved support to take raisk instead of chasing
Long
by venkatfx
1
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (August 13, 2025) 1. Momentum • D1 Timeframe: Momentum is about to enter the oversold zone. By the end of today, it is likely to be fully in oversold territory. This stage often leads to strong price movement – either a sharp decline or a bullish reversal. • H4 Timeframe: Momentum is preparing to turn upward. We need to wait for the current H4 candle to close for confirmation. If confirmed, a recovery move is likely to occur today. • H1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently tightening and approaching the overbought zone – a typical sign of sideways price action. This explains why, despite the high probability of a recovery, H1 does not yet provide a good entry signal. ________________________________________ 2. Wave Structure • RSI shows a bullish divergence between price and the indicator – a pattern often seen in wave 3 or wave 5. This supports the view that wave 5 (black) has completed around the 3333 level. • With a complete 5-wave structure, wave A (red) of the ABC (red) correction may already be in place. • A recovery in wave B (red) is expected, which aligns with H4 momentum preparing to turn upward. Wave B typically forms a 3-wave corrective structure, where price moves in a choppy, overlapping manner rather than trending strongly. • Wave B target zones: 1. 3371 2. 3381 These two levels are close to each other, so they can be treated as one combined zone. The plan is to take the first target as the base level while extending the SL to cover the second target. If price approaches these levels, it’s best to watch real-time price action before entering a trade. • Alternative scenario: If wave 5 (black) is not yet complete, the 3323 zone remains a good Buy opportunity (as per the previous analysis). ________________________________________ 3. Trading Plan Sell Setup: • Entry Zone: 3371 – 3373 • SL: 3385 • TP1: 3358 • TP2: 3331 • TP3: 3323 Buy Setup: • Entry Zone: 3323 – 3321 • SL: 3313 • TP1: 3331 • TP2: 3357 • TP3: 3371 2. Wave Structure • RSI shows a bullish divergence, often seen in wave 3 or 5, suggesting wave 5 (black) may have completed around 3333. • Wave A (red) of the ABC cycle may be complete; wave B (red) is expected to recover in a 3-wave, choppy pattern. • Wave B target zone: 3371–3381 (treated as one zone; monitor price action before entry). • Alternative scenario: If wave 5 (black) is not yet complete, 3323 remains a potential Buy zone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WavePoint_FX
Gift Nifty Future 15 min time frame wave analysisGift nifty future 15 min chart wave analysis In our nifty future chart a new piece has developed in a motive wave. This is the nature of impulse wave which has 5 waves. After that abc zigzag correction has happened. Therefore the next impulse wave anticipate. If a complex correction is formed then x wave will be formed. Thank you Disclaimer I am not SEBI registered financial adviser, it is my personal research and posted for only educational purpose. Before taking any trade or investments please take advice from your financial adviser. MKT Learner
NSEIX:NIFTY1!Long
by meenaanita613
2
Jammu and Kashmir Bank LtdDate 13.08.2025 Jammu and Kashmir Bank Timeframe : Weekly Chart Business Segments (1) Retail Banking: 60% (2) Treasury: 21% (3) Corporate Banking: 19% Key Ratios Yield: 9.5% CoF: 4.42% NIM: 4% CRAR: 15% NIM: 3.90% GNPA: 3.95% NNPA: 0.85% PCR: 90.54% Branch Break-Up (1) Rural: 54% (2) Metro: 19% (3) Semi-Urban: 16% (4) Urban: 11% Loan Book Gross advances of the bank stood at Rs. 99,242 Cr Gross Advance Mix (1) Personal Finance: 39% (2) Trade & Services: 21% (3) Agriculture: 10% (4) Financial Markets: 10% (5) Manufacturing: 7% (6) Others: 13% Deposits Bank has total deposits of Rs. 1,37,918 Cr Deposits Mix (1) Term Deposits: 51% (2) CASA: 49% Sponsored Regional Rural Bank (RRB) (1) The bank sponsors J&K Grameen Bank and holds a stake of 35%. (2) The operations of J&K Grameen Bank are carried out in 13 districts of the UT of J&K (3) UT of Ladakh including Baramulla, Bandipora, Kupwara, Ganderbal, Srinagar Jammu (4) It has 216 branches and 1,226 employees Valuations (1) Market Cap = ₹ 11,474 Cr. (2) Stock P/E = 5.27 (3) Book Value = 0.81X (4) ROCE = 6.15 % (5) ROE =15.8 % (6) EPS = 19 (7) Financial Margin = 12% Regards, Ankur
NSE:J&KBANKLong
by AnkurSingh
Buy Apollo Hospitals Apollo Hospitals completed Wave V of a new impulse on 8 July, precisely at the 78.6% retracement of the entire move from Wave 0 to Wave iii, projected from Wave iv. Since then, the stock has entered a corrective phase, and the pattern is shaping up as a Flat Correction. Structure So Far Wave A of the flat is complete, with sub-waves (B)–(C) finishing near a 1:1 ratio with sub-wave ((0)–(A) / sub-wave ((A)-(B)) as market in the chart. The stock has formed a bullish long-legged doji / hammer pattern. The next leg, Wave B (a counter-trend move), is now expected. In a regular flat, Wave B may retest the previous swing high. In an expanded flat, it can extend up to 1.38× the length of Wave A. What to Expect A possible upmove toward ₹7600, assuming Wave B unfolds as expected. Wave C would follow to complete the flat, but that would be addressed in a future update Trade Setup Buy Zone: Around current levels (₹7170) Target: ₹7600 Stop Loss: ₹7025
NSE:APOLLOHOSPLong
by ChartTheWave
2
BTC Technical Analysis BTC Technical Analysis: Bullish Channel on H4 - Trading Opportunity Hello everyone, let's take a look at BTC's current movement on the H4 chart. The price is trading within a well-defined bullish channel, showing strong upward momentum. Although there was a brief fake-out below the channel, the price quickly bounced back within two H4 candles, confirming the strength of this trend. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks like BTC is completing a corrective ABC wave before a new impulse wave begins. This could be a good setup for a short-term trade. Potential Trade Setup: There's an open price gap above the current price, which could act as a resistance zone. This area is a strong candidate for a SHORT entry. My entry point is set around $121,000. I'll be looking to take profits below $118,000. Important points to remember: The MACD is showing a bearish crossover, which might signal a minor pullback. While this short opportunity exists, remember that a LONG trade in the direction of the trend generally has a better win rate. Always trade with caution, especially when going against the main trend. Summary of my plan: Main Strategy: SHORT at $121,000 to catch the ABC correction. Risk Management: My target is below $118,000. I'll be using a tight Stop Loss (SL) to manage risk.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
4
August 13, 2025 trading plan prediction for tomorrow24,728 – Above: 10m closing → Short Cover Zone. Below: 10m hold PE → Safe Zone for Puts. 24,628 – Above: 10m hold CE → Entry Level for Calls. Below: 10m hold PE → Risky Zone for Puts. 24,528 – Above: Positive trade bias. Below: Negative trade bias. 24,428 – Above Opening S1: 10m hold CE → Bullish bias. Below Opening R1: 10m hold PE → Bearish bias. 24,330 – Above: 10m hold CE → Buy Level for Calls. Below: 10m hold PE → Sell Level for Puts. 24,210 – Above: 10m hold CE → Safe Zone for Calls. Below: 10m hold → Unwinding Level. 24,173 – Day UP Fibonacci Support 0.382.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by mayuraj_820
[SeoVereign] BITCOIN BEARISH Outlook – August 12, 2025Today, I will introduce my short position outlook for Bitcoin on August 12. There are two grounds for this idea. First, an arbitrary wave X forms a 0.382 length ratio with another arbitrary wave. In general, the 5th wave often has a length ratio of 0.382 compared to the 1st wave. In this case as well, it can be counted in the same way. Second, as a result of applying the Fibonacci in reverse to the wave that appears to be in a diagonal form, the point where the ratio of 2 is formed almost exactly matched the recent high of around 112,360. I often use this kind of “reverse Fibonacci.” Normally, Fibonacci is drawn with the past point as the first point and the future point as the second point, but I do the opposite — setting the future point as the first point and the past point as the second point. In this case, ratios such as 1.618 / 2 / 2.24 / 2.618 / 3 / 3.618 are often used. It is especially effective for measuring ratios between wave pairs that skip one wave, such as between wave A and wave C, or between wave 3 and wave 1. thank you.
Short
by SeoVereign
Part 1 Ride The Big Moves Common Mistakes to Avoid Holding OTM options too close to expiry hoping for a miracle. Selling naked calls without understanding unlimited risk. Over-leveraging with too many contracts. Ignoring commissions and slippage. Not adjusting positions when market changes. Practical Tips for Success Backtest strategies on historical data. Start with paper trading before using real money. Track your trades in a journal. Combine technical analysis with options knowledge. Trade liquid options with tight bid-ask spreads.
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by SkyTradingZone
3