GBPAUD Forecast – Liquidity Sweep Before Strong Upside RallyGBPAUD has been moving through an extended bearish cycle, confirmed by multiple downside breaks of structure that signaled strong sell-side control. Each leg cleared liquidity and left inefficiencies behind, reflecting a market environment dominated by distribution phases. Recently, however, the dynamics are shifting. Price action has begun to compress, with shorter bearish candles and emerging higher lows that point toward weakening seller momentum and the early signs of accumulation.
Order flow analysis suggests that institutional participants may be absorbing positions within the current range. The market appears poised to engineer a downward liquidity sweep to trigger weak longs and attract late sellers before reversing upward. This type of behavior is typical of smart money accumulation phases, where liquidity is harvested before expansion.
Volume and volatility add weight to this narrative. Downside moves are losing strength, showing seller exhaustion, while volatility has contracted, signaling the market is coiling energy for a breakout. Given the structural setup and liquidity positioning, the probability favors a bullish expansion following a brief dip.
X-indicator
Gold Breaking Limits – Trend Speaks for ItselfGold Breaking Limits – Trend Speaks for Itself
Gold Market Outlook
Gold continues to demonstrate a well-structured bullish cycle, characterized by steady momentum and clean trend development. The market has transitioned from a prolonged consolidation phase into a sustained directional move, where each breakout is validated by controlled retracements. This reflects strong participation and confidence from larger players.
The sequence of market shifts and break-of-structure signals highlight how short-term pullbacks are consistently absorbed, turning into fuel for further expansion. Price action is orderly, with no signs of erratic volatility, showing that buyers remain in control and liquidity is being managed efficiently.
Overall, gold is moving in line with the broader macro sentiment. The rhythm of accumulation, expansion, and continuation suggests that the current cycle has not yet exhausted its potential. While interim pauses are expected, the structural integrity of the trend continues to favor upside development over the medium term.
Strategic Long-Term Perspective on GoldGold Market Analysis – Report View
Gold has delivered a strong bullish cycle after weeks of accumulation. The past phase showed a contracting range where liquidity was built up and multiple structural shifts occurred, signaling preparation for expansion. Once price broke out of that range in late August, momentum accelerated, leading to a clean and sustained rally into September.
The recent move highlights how market flow continues to favor the upside, with each correction acting as a re-accumulation zone rather than a trend reversal. Institutional order flow remains visible, supporting higher valuations as price respects bullish market structure.
Currently, gold is stabilizing after the sharp leg upward. This pause suggests a phase of healthy consolidation, likely absorbing liquidity before attempting the next impulsive wave higher. Overall sentiment remains constructive, with bullish continuation the dominant narrative unless a major structural shift occurs.
Gold’s Next Bullish Move: Key Buy Zones & Targets to Watch Today🔥 Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Momentum Alert! 🔥
After a strong rally, Gold bounced back impressively from today’s low at 3633 and is pushing up towards 3673. For intraday traders, the setup is clear: look for dips to jump in on the long side around 3654 - 3646 with exciting upside targets ahead!
📈 Trade Setup – Long on Pullback
Entry: Buy Gold at 3654
Add-on Dip: Add more at 3646
Targets: First target 3670-3675, then aiming for 3685
Invalidation: Cut losses if price falls below 3630
📊 Risk/Reward Snapshot
This is a tight-risk, high-reward setup — perfect for traders who want to keep their stops close while chasing solid gains. As always, manage your risk wisely and size your positions according to your plan.
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Graphite - is it the start of multibagger run againGraphite broke out of 200 MA , completed retest.
Formed a falling trendline
broke out of trendline with lucrative volumes
price getting accepted at higher levels.
Could be the start of multibagger run once again.
A strong buy setup with SL of recent swing low - 504
USDT.D AnalysisThe USDT Dominance (USDT.D) remains in its broader downtrend and is currently testing the key 4.19% support. A confirmed breakdown of this level would validate further downside in dominance and provide a strong bullish catalyst for the crypto market, as capital flows out of stablecoins into risk assets.
The next major support sits at 3.79%, but it’s more strategic to position earlier, with confirmation around 4.19%, since a direct entry at 3.79% may be too aggressive and harder to execute given the likelihood of a sharp bullish breakout across the market once that level is lost.
From a momentum perspective, the RSI has an ascending trendline that aligns with the 4.19% level. A simultaneous breakdown of both RSI trendline support and the 4.19% dominance level would serve as strong confirmation of bearish continuation in USDT.D, favoring a broad crypto rally.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Support: 4.19% (primary), 3.79% (major)
Bearish confirmation: RSI trendline break + close below 4.19%
Maintain focus on long setups in crypto assets if dominance breaks 4.19%, with expectations of stronger market-wide bullish momentum on a confirmed move towards 3.79%
BTCUSDT Analysis – Channel Breakout in FocusBitcoin is currently moving inside an upward channel, where the $107,820.57 level acted as strong support. This level also aligned with the lower trendline of the channel, and price reacted well to it, triggering the latest bullish move.
At present, BTC is facing a critical resistance at $117,583.51, which serves as a potential long trigger. A breakout above this level could accelerate the upside momentum.
Given the expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the crypto market could gain further bullish momentum.
Our main bullish confirmation remains a breakout of $123,435.36, which would validate the continuation of the macro bullish wave count. However, it is preferable to secure entry before price reaches that level in order to optimize risk-to-reward.
📌 Trading Plan: Watch $117,583.51 for a breakout entry. Manage risk properly as volatility is expected to rise with macroeconomic events
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT #Crypto #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoMarket #TradingView #Altcoins
Gold Rebounds Within Upward Channel – Eyes on $3,700+Gold (XAUUSD) is holding inside its upward channel on the 1H timeframe, bouncing strongly off the lower boundary near $3,640. The bullish structure remains intact as long as price respects channel support, keeping $3,700+ in play.
Technical Setup:
Price continues to trend within a rising channel since early September.
The recent dip tested the lower band near $3,640, where buyers stepped back in.
Current price action shows momentum building toward the channel midpoint (~$3,680).
A decisive breakout above $3,685–3,700 could trigger further upside toward $3,720–3,740.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: $3,640, $3,610, $3,600
Resistance: $3,685, $3,700, $3,720–3,740
Takeaway:
Gold’s trend remains bullish while holding above $3,640. A push above $3,700 confirms bullish continuation toward $3,720–3,740. A close below $3,640 shifts bias bearish toward $3,600.
#Gold #XAUUSD #Commodities #TradingStrategy
XAUUSD/GOLD Unemployment Claims 18.09.25XAUUSD/Gold – Unemployment Claims (18.09.25):
Current Price Zone: Gold is trading around $3,668.81.
Trading Idea: The chart suggests a buying opportunity if the U.S. unemployment claims data comes out negative (worse than expected).
Key Levels:
Major Resistance R1 → Around $3,685 – $3,690
Breakout and retest of this level signals a buy entry.
Resistance 2 – Yesterday’s High & News High → Around $3,710
Acts as the next upside target after breakout.
Resistance 3 – Expected New ATH → Around $3,736 – $3,740
This is the final bullish target if momentum sustains.
Strategy:
Plan A (Main Setup):
Wait for breakout above R1 (3,690) → Enter buy trade on retest.
Ride the move towards R2 (3,710) and possibly R3 (3,736–3,740).
Confirmation Zone:
If news is negative for USD, gold is expected to rally strongly (bullish bias).
Risk Management:
Stop Loss (SL): Below 3,680 zone, as marked in the red area.
Take Profit (TP): Stepwise at 3,710 → 3,736 → 3,740.
👉 In summary: The chart indicates a news-driven bullish breakout plan — gold buys are favored if the data weakens the USD, with targets up to 3,740.
Volatility–Momentum–Trend (VMT) Model🔎 Intro / Overview
Three-indicator confirmation using Bollinger Bands (BB) , MACD , and RSI to align trend and price action.
BB often detects the move first (least lag), MACD follows the BB trend (mid reaction), and RSI confirms last (most lag).
This staged confirmation helps reduce false signals and keeps entries disciplined.
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📔 Concept
• Bollinger Bands (BB) → Early detector at volatility extremes.
– Buy : Price first moves outside the lower band , then a candle closes back above lower band → early bullish alert.
– Sell : Price first moves outside the upper band , then a candle closes back below upper band → early bearish alert.
• MACD → Momentum confirmer.
– Buy : MACD crossover above its signal line supports the bullish shift.
– Sell : MACD crossunder below its signal line supports the bearish shift.
• RSI → Final confirmation (filters traps).
– Buy : RSI crosses above its moving average, confirming bullish momentum.
– Sell : RSI crosses below its moving average, confirming bearish momentum.
✅ Only when BB + MACD + RSI all align in the same direction is the signal confirmed.
Notes:
- BB often reacts first (fastest, but prone to false starts).
- MACD provides mid-reaction confirmation.
- RSI lags but acts as the strongest filter against false trades.
Notes: Sometimes BB reacts immediately; MACD/RSI can prevent traps. At times BB+MACD demand a trade but RSI rejects (good filter); other times RSI demands but BB+MACD filter it.
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📌 How to Use
🔴 Sell Signal
1) BB: Price first extends outside upper band in an up-move, then a candle closes back under the upper band → BB sell signal.
2) MACD: Crossunder of MACD line below signal line.
3) RSI: RSI crosses below its moving average → final confirmation.
✅ All three aligned = Valid Sell.
🟢 Buy Signal
1) BB: Price first extends outside lower band in a down-move, then a candle closes back above the lower band → BB buy signal.
2) MACD: Crossover of MACD line above signal line.
3) RSI: RSI crosses above its moving average → final confirmation.
✅ All three aligned = Valid Buy.
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🎯 Trading Plan
• Entry → Only when all three confirm in the same direction.
• Stop Loss → - Stop-Loss → Near the structure swing that formed when BB first detected the signal (e.g., recent swing high for shorts / swing low for longs).
• Target → At least 1R ; scale/exit remainder using ATR, Fibonacci levels, or box trailing to ride trend.
___________________________________________________________
📊 Chart Explanation
Symbol/TF: BANKNIFTY · 1H
1) 20 Aug · 10:15 — SELL
• BB detected first, MACD mid-reaction (after ~2 candles), RSI confirmed last → Entry @ 55,676.30
• Target @ 55,387.05
• Stop-loss @ 55,965.55
• 🎯 Target hit on 22 Aug · 09:15 .
• Remaining lots can be trailed using ATR , Fibonacci levels , or Box Trailing to ride the extended trend
2) 29 Aug · 10:15 — FILTERED SELL
• BB and MACD demanded sell, but RSI did not confirm → No trade; RSI saved a false signal.
• 🦋 “The aqua dots represent false signals. At times, BB detects early entries but RSI and MACD do not confirm. Sometimes BB and MACD align, but RSI rejects the move. Other times BB and RSI confirm, yet MACD signals false. ✅ Only when all three align together is the signal valid.”
3) 01 Sep · 13:12 — BUY
• All three aligned long
• Entry @ 53,917.05
• Target @ 54,121.50
• Stop-loss @ 53,712.60
• 🎯 Target hit.
• Remaining lots can be trailed using ATR , Fibonacci levels , or Box Trailing to ride the extended trend
👉🏼 “A Sell setup looked promising today, but MACD did not confirm the trend ❌. With BB, RSI, and MACD now nearing alignment, the next reversal opportunity will be valid only when all three confirm together ✅.”
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👀 Observation
• BB provides the earliest cue; MACD validates momentum shift; RSI filters late-stage traps.
• Most reliable signals occur near key structure (support/resistance) with confluence.
• Not all alignments are equal—strength improves with decisive closes and supportive volume.
___________________________________________________________
❗ Why It Matters?
•A rule-based, three-step confirmation reduces noise and emotions.
•It clarifies when to enter , when to skip , and how to manage risk consistently across changing market conditions.
___________________________________________________________
🎯 Conclusion
BB → detect , MACD → follow , RSI → confirm .
When all three align, entries are clearer and risk is defined.
🔥 Patterns don’t predict. Rules protect. 🚀
___________________________________________________________
⚠️ Disclaimer
📘 For educational purposes only.
🙅 Not SEBI registered.
❌ Not a buy/sell recommendation.
🧠 Purely a learning resource.
📊 Not Financial Advice.
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H BUY PROJECTION – 18.09.25The 1-hour chart of Gold shows a recent V pattern formation, signaling a strong bullish reversal after a sharp drop.
A downtrend breakout is confirmed, supported by a Three White Soldiers pattern, strengthening the bullish momentum.
Entry Zone: Around 3,668 (current price).
Support (S1): 3,655 – strong demand zone where buyers are likely to defend.
Resistance (R1): 3,685 – key target level for this bullish move.
Risk-to-Reward Setup: Stop-loss below support (S1) at 3,655, with take-profit at resistance (R1) near 3,685.
🔑 Conclusion: Gold (XAUUSD) is showing bullish signs with breakout confirmation. As long as price holds above support at 3,655, the projection favors upside movement towards 3,685.
“XAU/USD 1H – Bullish Continuation from Demand Zone Key Observations:
Uptrend Structure:
Price has been consistently making Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), confirming an overall bullish market structure.
Break of Structure (BOS) levels confirm continuation of the trend.
Market Structure Shift (MSS):
Recently, price created a short-term shift downward (MSS) but retraced into a POI zone (demand area) near 3,646 – 3,659.
Current Setup:
The price bounced from the POI zone and is now recovering upward.
A long position was marked with entry near 3,659, Stop Loss at 3,646, and Target around 3,709.
Bias:
As long as price holds above 3,646 (POI zone), bullish continuation is favored.
If broken below 3,646, bearish correction could extend further.
IREDA – Weekly Double Bottom - ReversalDisclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
IREDA – Weekly Double Bottom - Reversal
🎯 Targets
Target 1: ₹183
Target 2: ₹232
Target 3: ₹309
⚖️ Risk-Reward
Entry: ₹155
Stop Loss: ₹140
Risk–Reward Ratio ≈ 1:10+
📌 Summary:
The "W" pattern in the stock market is a technical analysis chart formation that resembles the letter "W" and signals a bullish reversal of a downtrend, indicating increased buyer strength and potential price increases. It is also known as a double bottom and consists of two troughs at roughly the same price level, separated by a higher-low peak, with the pattern confirmed when the price breaks above a resistance level.
Part 3 Institutional Trading Role of Options in Hedging
Options are commonly used to hedge portfolios against adverse market movements:
Protective Put for Stocks: Investors holding equities can buy puts to protect against downside risks.
Portfolio Insurance: Institutions use options to safeguard large portfolios against market crashes.
Income Generation: Covered call writing allows long-term holders to earn additional income while maintaining exposure.
Hedging with options is especially popular in volatile markets where risk management is critical.
Pricing Models and Market Mechanics
Professional traders often rely on option pricing models, like the Black-Scholes model, to determine fair premiums. These models factor in:
Current price of the underlying asset
Strike price
Time to expiration
Volatility
Risk-free interest rate
Options markets operate through exchanges with standardized contracts. Market makers provide liquidity, and the bid-ask spread reflects supply-demand dynamics. In OTC markets, options can be customized to suit specific investor requirements.
Advantages of Options Trading
Leverage: Control a larger position for smaller capital.
Flexibility: Strategies for bullish, bearish, or neutral markets.
Hedging: Effective risk management tool.
Profit in Any Market: Can profit in rising, falling, or sideways markets with the right strategy.
Defined Risk (for Buyers): Limited to premium paid.
Challenges and Considerations
Complexity: Options require understanding of multiple factors affecting pricing.
Time Sensitivity: Options lose value as expiration nears.
Volatility Risk: Price swings can be unpredictable.
Liquidity Issues: Not all options have sufficient trading volume.
Psychological Pressure: Rapid movements and leverage can lead to emotional decisions.
How to Read Weak Pullbacks: Hindustan Unilever Case StudyMost traders love chasing green candles. Professionals study pullbacks — because they reveal who’s really in control.
🔎 What the Chart Shows (HUL)
Strong run-up July–Aug → clear trend.
Recent pullback into 2600 zone.
20 & 50 MA curling sideways → buyers losing some steam.
200 MA still rising → long-term trend intact.
✅ How to Use This
Weak pullback (low volume, shallow retrace): Often resumes trend.
Strong pullback (heavy selling, breaks 50MA): Trend shift risk.
Here → buyers defending near ₹2,590–2,600. A bounce above ₹2,642 could confirm strength.
👉 Lesson: Don’t fear pullbacks — read them. They tell you if trend is resting or reversing.
💡 Save this chart. Follow for daily technical education with trader psychology.
Dr. Agarwal’s Health Care – Compression Before the Next Wave
• CMP: ₹442.25
• Price reclaimed short-term averages after testing the 200-EMA zone (~₹432) — buyers showing hand
• Base forming between ₹430–450 with clear defense at ₹426
• Structure resembles controlled accumulation after a corrective phase
• Volumes muted — energy building under the surface
• A decisive move above ₹450 can unlock momentum
🎯 Trigger Levels
• Long Entry: Close above ₹450
→ Target 1: ₹468
→ Target 2: ₹485
→ Stop-Loss: ₹426
• Weakness only below ₹426 — opens downside toward ₹400
💡 There are layers in this setup that aren’t visible to the casual eye — but the structure is telling a story if you know how to read it.
#AGARWALEYE #HealthcareStocks #PriceAction #SwingTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutSetup #NSEStocks
ASIANPAINT 1D Time frameCurrent View
The stock is trading around ₹2,490-₹2,500, roughly in that band.
Recent price action suggests sideways to slightly negative bias in the short term.
The stock is below many of its medium-to-long term moving averages, but above some short term ones — mixed signals.
⚙️ Indicators & Momentum
RSI is in neutral to slightly weak territory (not deeply oversold, not overbought).
MACD shows bearish pressure in recent periods.
Some oscillators & momentum tools showing mild divergence, meaning upward momentum is not strong.
Short-term moving averages are giving mixed signals: some support, some resistance.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Zones: ~ ₹2,520-₹2,550 is a resistance range.
Support Zones: ~ ₹2,450-₹2,470 nearer support. More substantial support around ₹2,400-₹2,430.
TCS 1D Time frameCurrent Snapshot
Price: ₹3,174
Stock has moved above earlier resistance zones (₹3,150 – ₹3,170).
Momentum looks positive, buyers are holding strength.
📌 Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: ₹3,190 – ₹3,200
Next Resistance: ₹3,220 – ₹3,250
Immediate Support: ₹3,150 – ₹3,160
Stronger Support: ₹3,100 – ₹3,120
✅ Outlook
If TCS sustains above ₹3,170, it can extend the rally toward ₹3,200 – ₹3,220.
If it slips back below ₹3,160, consolidation may happen around ₹3,120 – ₹3,150.
Larger trend remains bullish as long as price stays above ₹3,100.
COFORGE 1D Time frameCurrent Snapshot
Price is trading near ₹1,812.
Stock is showing good strength above short-term and long-term moving averages.
Volatility is moderate, so sharp intraday swings are possible.
⚙️ Indicators / Momentum
Moving Averages: All key averages (short, medium, long) are bullish.
MACD / Momentum: Positive, supporting upside.
RSI: Slightly high, showing strength but near overbought zone → chances of small pullback.
📌 Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: ₹1,820 – ₹1,835.
Immediate Support: ₹1,790 – ₹1,800.
Stronger Support: ₹1,750 – ₹1,760 if weakness extends.
LT 1D Time frameCurrent Snapshot
Price: ₹3,695 (slightly higher than yesterday’s level).
Stock is holding near resistance but still above strong supports.
Trend is bullish to sideways.
📌 Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: ₹3,740 – ₹3,800.
Immediate Support: ₹3,650 – ₹3,670.
Stronger Support: ₹3,600, and deeper support near ₹3,100 on longer timeframe.
✅ Outlook
If LT sustains above ₹3,670, bulls remain strong and a breakout above ₹3,740 could push toward ₹3,800+.
If it falls below ₹3,650, then short-term weakness may test ₹3,600.
As long as it stays above ₹3,600, the larger trend remains intact.