XAUUSD H1: Structure Holds — Pullback Before Next Rise?Market Context (Macro)
Gold remains sensitive to Fed expectations, USD flows, and yields. With rate-cut uncertainty still unresolved, dips continue to attract defensive flows rather than aggressive selling. This keeps gold bid on pullbacks, especially at technical discount zones.
📊 Technical Structure – H1
Bullish structure remains intact after a clear CHoCH → BOS sequence.
Price is consolidating above the last BOS, suggesting pause, not reversal.
A pullback into FVG / demand would be technically healthy before expansion.
🎯 Key Trading Zones
🔵 BUY Zone (Reaction Area):
4,820 – 4,800
• FVG overlap
• Prior BOS base
• Fibonacci discount support
➡️ Look for H1 rejection or bullish reaction (no blind entries).
🎯 Upside Targets (Liquidity Objectives)
TP1: 4,985
TP2: 5,064
TP3: 5,325 (Major liquidity / swing target)
❌ Invalidation
H1 close below 4,760 → bullish structure weakened, reassess bias.
X-indicator
Domestic Equity Market Trends: A Comprehensive Overview1. Structural Shift in the Domestic Equity Market
One of the most prominent trends in recent years has been the structural strengthening of the equity market. India has moved from being a savings-driven economy dominated by physical assets (gold and real estate) to an increasingly financialized economy.
Key drivers of this shift include:
Expansion of mutual funds and SIP culture
Digital trading platforms and mobile apps
Regulatory reforms by SEBI
Greater financial literacy and awareness
This structural transformation has made equity markets deeper, more liquid, and more resilient to shocks.
2. Rise of Retail and Domestic Institutional Investors
A defining trend in the domestic equity market is the surge in retail participation. Millions of new demat accounts have been added over the last few years, particularly after 2020.
Retail Investors
Retail investors are no longer short-term speculators alone. A growing segment participates through:
Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs)
Direct equity investments
ETFs and index funds
This has created steady domestic inflows, reducing dependence on volatile foreign capital.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)
Domestic institutions such as:
Mutual funds
Insurance companies
Pension funds
have emerged as market stabilizers, often counterbalancing Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling during global risk-off periods.
3. Sectoral Rotation and Thematic Trends
Domestic equity markets are increasingly characterized by sectoral rotation, where leadership shifts based on economic cycles, policy support, and earnings visibility.
Cyclical Sectors
Banking and financial services
Capital goods
Infrastructure
Metals and energy
These sectors tend to outperform during economic expansion, government capex cycles, and credit growth phases.
Defensive Sectors
FMCG
Pharmaceuticals
IT services
These sectors attract capital during periods of uncertainty, inflationary pressure, or global slowdown.
Emerging Themes
Recent domestic equity trends show growing interest in:
Manufacturing and “Make in India”
Defense and railways
Renewable energy and EV ecosystem
Digital platforms and fintech
4. Banking and Financial Services as Market Leaders
The banking and financial sector remains the backbone of the domestic equity market. Strong balance sheets, improving asset quality, and robust credit growth have made banks market leaders.
Key trends include:
Declining NPAs and improved capital adequacy
Strong performance by private sector banks
Gradual recovery in PSU banks
Expansion of NBFCs and fintech collaboration
Because financials hold significant index weight, their performance largely determines broader market direction.
5. Earnings Growth and Corporate Profitability
A sustainable equity market trend depends on earnings growth, not just valuation expansion. In recent years, Indian corporates have shown:
Improved operating margins
Better cost efficiency
Lower debt levels
Strong cash flows
Sectors aligned with domestic consumption and infrastructure spending have reported consistent earnings growth, reinforcing long-term investor confidence.
6. Valuation Expansion and Market Maturity
India’s domestic equity market often trades at a premium valuation compared to other emerging markets. This trend is supported by:
Political stability
Predictable policy framework
Strong demographic dividend
Long-term GDP growth prospects
However, high valuations also mean:
Increased sensitivity to earnings disappointments
Selective stock picking becomes crucial
Midcap and small-cap segments face sharper corrections during risk-off phases
7. Midcap and Small-Cap Market Dynamics
The midcap and small-cap segments have become key areas of interest in domestic equity markets.
Trends Observed:
Higher volatility compared to large caps
Strong participation from retail investors
Periodic sharp rallies followed by corrections
Growing scrutiny on corporate governance and balance sheet quality
While these segments offer higher growth potential, they demand disciplined risk management.
8. Influence of Macroeconomic Factors
Domestic equity market trends are closely linked to macroeconomic variables such as:
Inflation and interest rates
RBI monetary policy stance
Fiscal deficit and government spending
Currency movements
A stable inflation environment and supportive monetary policy typically boost equity valuations, while tightening cycles introduce volatility.
9. Impact of Global Factors on Domestic Markets
Although domestic equity markets are increasingly self-reliant, global factors still play a role:
US Federal Reserve policy
Global liquidity conditions
Geopolitical tensions
Commodity price movements
However, strong domestic flows have reduced the shock impact of FII outflows, making Indian markets relatively resilient compared to the past.
10. Regulatory and Policy Support
SEBI reforms have enhanced transparency, investor protection, and market efficiency. Measures such as:
T+1 settlement
Enhanced disclosure norms
Stronger corporate governance rules
have boosted confidence in domestic equity markets and encouraged long-term participation.
11. Technology and Market Accessibility
Technology has transformed equity market participation:
Algorithmic and quantitative trading
Online research and analytics
Low-cost brokerage models
Real-time data access
This has democratized investing but also increased short-term volatility due to faster information flow.
12. Long-Term Outlook of Domestic Equity Markets
The long-term trend of the domestic equity market remains structurally bullish, supported by:
Rising household financial savings
Expanding middle class and consumption
Infrastructure-led growth
Manufacturing revival
Digital and technological adoption
Short-term corrections are a natural part of market cycles, but the underlying growth story remains intact.
Conclusion
Domestic equity market trends reflect a powerful transformation—from liquidity-driven rallies to earnings-backed, structurally supported growth. The rise of domestic investors, sectoral diversification, strong regulatory oversight, and improving corporate fundamentals have made the market more mature and resilient.
For investors, the key lies in understanding these trends, aligning strategies with economic cycles, and maintaining a long-term perspective. While volatility is inevitable, the domestic equity market continues to offer compelling opportunities for wealth creation in a growing economy like India.
Can You Control Revenge Trading?Understanding, Managing, and Eliminating One of Trading’s Deadliest Habits
1. What Is Revenge Trading?
Revenge trading happens when a trader, after taking a loss (or a series of losses), abandons their plan and starts trading emotionally to “get the money back.” The market begins to feel personal. Every candle looks like an insult. Every loss feels unfair.
Instead of trading setups, the trader trades emotions.
Typical signs of revenge trading:
Increasing position size after a loss
Entering trades without confirmation
Overtrading the same instrument
Ignoring stop-loss rules
Trading immediately after a big loss without reflection
Revenge trading is not about strategy failure — it’s about emotional hijacking.
2. Why Revenge Trading Is So Dangerous
Revenge trading compounds mistakes. One small, manageable loss turns into:
Bigger losses
Loss of discipline
Loss of confidence
Eventually, loss of capital
Markets don’t punish traders — traders punish themselves by staying emotionally engaged when they should step away.
The irony?
Most traders who revenge trade are technically capable. They know support/resistance, indicators, patterns. What breaks them is psychology.
3. The Psychology Behind Revenge Trading
To control revenge trading, you must understand why it happens.
a. Loss Aversion
Humans feel losses 2–2.5 times more intensely than gains. Your brain is wired to “fix” pain immediately.
b. Ego and Identity
Many traders subconsciously link their self-worth to being right. A loss feels like:
“I am wrong” instead of “This trade didn’t work.”
So the ego demands redemption.
c. Fight-or-Flight Response
After a loss, stress hormones (like cortisol and adrenaline) spike. Logical thinking drops. Impulsive behavior rises.
You’re literally biologically less intelligent after a loss.
4. Can Revenge Trading Be Controlled?
Yes — but not by willpower alone.
Revenge trading is controlled through:
Systems
Rules
Environment design
Emotional awareness
Habit restructuring
Trying to “just be disciplined” almost never works.
5. Step-by-Step Ways to Control Revenge Trading
1. Define a Maximum Daily Loss (Hard Stop)
This is non-negotiable.
Example:
If you lose 2% in a day, you stop trading — no exceptions.
Why it works:
It removes decision-making during emotional stress
It protects capital and mindset
It trains respect for risk
Professional traders don’t trade every day. They trade when conditions and mindset align.
2. Mandatory Cooling-Off Period After a Loss
After a loss:
Step away for 10–30 minutes
No charts
No news
No social media
This allows your nervous system to reset.
If you re-enter immediately, chances are you’re trading emotion, not probability.
3. Trade Only Pre-Defined Setups
Write down:
Entry conditions
Stop-loss logic
Target logic
If a trade doesn’t meet all criteria, you are not allowed to take it — especially after a loss.
Revenge trades usually start with:
“This looks good enough.”
“Good enough” is where discipline dies.
4. Reduce Position Size After a Loss
Professional risk managers often reduce size after a losing streak, not increase it.
Why?
Confidence drops after losses
Execution quality declines
Emotional sensitivity increases
Smaller size keeps you engaged without emotional overload.
5. Keep a Trading Journal Focused on Emotions
Don’t just log:
Entry
Exit
P&L
Also log:
Emotional state before the trade
Emotional state after the loss
Whether rules were followed
Patterns will emerge. Most traders are shocked to see how often losses come from rule violations, not bad setups.
Awareness is the first layer of control.
6. Separate “Trading Time” from “Review Time”
Never analyze mistakes during live market hours.
After a loss:
Do not “fix” it immediately
Do not prove anything to the market
Review later when emotions are neutral.
Markets reward patience, not urgency.
7. Accept That Losses Are the Cost of Business
This mindset shift is crucial.
Losses are:
Rent you pay to stay in the market
Data points, not judgments
Inevitable in probabilistic systems
Once you truly accept that losses don’t need to be recovered immediately, revenge trading loses its grip.
6. Long-Term Habits That Eliminate Revenge Trading
a. Process Over Profits
Judge your day by:
Rule-following
Execution quality
Not by money made or lost.
b. Fewer Trades, Better Trades
Overtrading fuels emotional spirals. High-quality traders often take very few trades.
c. Capital Preservation First
Your first job is not to make money — it’s to stay in the game.
7. Final Truth About Revenge Trading
Revenge trading isn’t a character flaw.
It’s a human response to uncertainty, loss, and ego.
You don’t eliminate it by being tougher.
You eliminate it by being structured.
The moment you stop trying to “beat the market” and start trying to execute your edge calmly, revenge trading fades.
Remember:
The market will always be there tomorrow.
Your capital and mindset might not be — if you don’t protect them today.
Eurostoxx remains constructive with bullish consolidation1 Price moved higher first and then shifted into bullish consolidations rather than breaking down
2 Each consolidation formed at a higher level, showing controlled digestion of gains
3 The current phase around 58 to 60 looks calm and orderly, with no visible distribution
4 Silent Flow does not confirm a future breakout here, it confirms that trend risk remains contained
5 The indicator is not about prediction, it is about staying aligned during consolidation
6 Scenario A is continued work within the bullish consolidation until price reveals direction
7 Scenario B is a clean break below this zone, shifting risk and forcing the trend to re prove itself
XAUUSD – High Volatility, Trade Reaction Zones (M30)Gold is currently experiencing strong volatility on the M30 timeframe after a sharp rebound from the recent lows. At this stage, the market is no longer trending smoothly but is shifting into a liquidity-driven, two-way environment, where price reacts aggressively at key Supply & Demand zones.
👉 This is not a FOMO market. Priority should be given to trading by levels and waiting for confirmation.
📌 Market Context
The broader structure is still capped by a descending trendline from above.
The latest bullish leg shows active demand, but no clear trend reversal confirmation yet.
Price is ranging within a wide band, making liquidity sweeps on both sides highly likely.
➡️ Short-term bias: Neutral → trade reactions at key zones.
📊 Structure & Price Action (M30)
Price is consolidating between well-defined demand and supply zones.
Each touch of a zone has produced sharp reactions → ideal for short-term MMFlow-style trades.
No confirmed CHoCH yet to validate a sustained bullish trend.
🎯 Trading Plan – MMFlow Style
🔵 BUY Scenario – Focus on Demand Reactions
Only look for BUY setups after bullish confirmation (bullish candles / Higher Low structure on M30).
BUY Zone 1: 4,819 – 4,800
(Short-term demand, multiple strong reactions)
BUY Zone 2: 4,733 – 4,710
(Major demand zone + liquidity low)
Target Zones (TP):
TP1: 4,900
TP2: 4,955
TP3: 5,018
Extended TP: 5,100 – 5,105 (major supply above)
🔴 SELL Scenario – Supply Reaction Trades
If price rallies into supply and fails to sustain bullish momentum:
SELL Zone 1: 4,955 – 4,965
SELL Zone 2: 5,018 – 5,105
Downside Targets:
TP1: 4,900
TP2: 4,819
TP3: 4,733
❌ Invalidation Conditions
Strong M30 close above 5,105 → bearish structure invalidated, reassess overall bias.
M30 close below 4,710 → risk of deeper downside expansion.
🧠 Summary
Gold is in a high-volatility, structure-building phase. The edge comes from:
Trading precise price zones, not chasing candles
Waiting for clear confirmation
Prioritizing risk management over trade frequency
📌 In volatile markets, discipline always beats prediction.
Nifty50 analysis(7/2/2026)CPR: wide + decending cpr: consolidtion
FII: 1,950.77 bought
DII: 1,265.06 sold
Highest OI:
CALL OI: 25500 and 25600
PUT OI: 25700 to 26000
Resistance: - 26000
Support : - 25500
conclusion:.
My pov:
1.today market consolidate and take support from 25600 or 25500 then bullish trend is possible
2.25500 and 25600 has more support and 25700 to 25900 has most resisting oi so possibly those gap will fade and take support .
3. If today price breaks 25850 then bullishness continues.
What IF:
1.If it breaks 25500 then 25400 great support
2. If it breaks 25900 then all time high is the target. Only if it close in day candle.
Psycology:
Find a good setup, retest same setup again and again all this 20 percent and 80 percent are mindset.
note:
8moving average ling is blue colour.
20moving average line is green colour
50moving average line is red colour.
200moving average line is black colour.
cpr is for trend analysis.
MA line is for support and resistance.
Disclaimer:
Iam not Sebi registered so i started this as a hobby, please do your own analysis, any profit/loss you gained is not my concern. I can be wrong please do not take it seriously thank you.
Gold Continues to Shine in the Eyes of Investors
India’s gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $2.49 billion in January 2026, up 98% from December's $1.25 billion, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth.
In 2025, total inflows reached $4.68 billion, a 262% increase from $1.29 billion in 2024; inflows were $310 million in 2023 and $33 million in 2022.
Globally, gold ETFs attracted $19 billion in January, the highest monthly inflow on record, with assets under management hitting $669 billion, up 20% during the month.
Global gold holdings rose by 120 tonnes to an all-time high of 4,145 tonnes.
Asian gold ETFs reported inflows of $10 billion in January, significantly above their 2025 average, marking the strongest monthly inflow for the region.
North America had its second-highest monthly inflow, while Europe also experienced notable investments amid geopolitical tensions.
Although gold prices dipped late in January after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, net inflows persisted as investors sought exposure during the price correction.
Geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance influenced investor behavior, with ongoing uncertainty regarding monetary policy contributing to demand for gold ETFs.
Resistance levels: 131, 143, 153
Support levels: 115, 106
Market Outlook & Trade Setup – Monday, 9th Feb 2026🔹 NIFTY: Gift Nifty (25,921: +223)
* Previous Close: 25,694
* Expected Range: 25,500 - 26,000
🔹 SENSEX
* Previous Close: 83,580
* Expected Range: 83,500 - 84,000
🌍 Global & Market Sentiment
* DJIA: +1200| S&P: +133
💰 Institutional Activity (Cash Market)
* FII: Net Buyers: + ₹ 1951 Cr
* DII: Net Buyers: - ₹ 1265 Cr
🔥 Events this Week:
India - US Crude & CPI data, UK GDP
📌 Sectoral Focus (Positive)
FMCG, Realty, Banks
👉 Commodities in Focus: Copper, Gold, Silver, Crude
✌️Important Quarterly Results: Bata, Bajaj electric, Happiest Mind
📈 Trade smart. Manage risk. Stay disciplined.
Support Holds, Volatility Fades — Fresh Rally Ahead for Nifty?Indian markets were volatile last week. Initial uncertainty after the Union Budget was followed by a strong positive reaction to the India–US trade deal.
Nifty moved in a wide range during the week but ended higher.
India VIX fell by around 12%, showing that volatility has reduced after major events.
◉ Key Levels
Immediate Support: 25,400–25,500
Immediate Resistance: 26,000
Strong Resistance: 26,200–26,300
The sharp sell-off after the gap-up opening found a base near 25,500, establishing it as a strong demand zone.
◉ Technical View
The overall trend remains positive above 25,400. A sustained move above 26,000 is needed for further upside, and a clear breakout above 26,300 could lead to the next rally.
◉ Key Triggers for the Week
India–US Trade Deal: Lower US tariffs (18%) improve visibility for exporters and foreign investors, supporting sentiment.
Inflation Data: Domestic CPI/WPI and global inflation prints will influence interest rate expectations and risk appetite.
Q3 FY26 Earnings: Results from banks, financials, IT, and other index heavyweights will drive sector leadership and Nifty direction.
◉ Trading Strategy
Traders should follow a buy-on-dips strategy near support levels and avoid taking aggressive positions until Nifty decisively moves above the 26,000–26,300 zone.
PFC:Likely Huge Trend Line Break OutPFC:
Trading at 419 and above all its Moving averages in daily chart viz 10,20,50,100 DEMA
Has given Golden crossover of 10 DEMA in Daily chart
Sustained increase in volume -latest two weeks noticed
Trading at 419 and above its Trend line resistance
Combination of the above suggests a possible upside ranging from 450-600.
Target 1:450 TGT 2:500 TGT 3:525-550 TGT 4:550-600+
Safer traders might consider going long above 450 on closing basis with a SL of 380 for 550-600 Target(For educational purpose only)
Weekly Analysis with buy/Sell scenarios in Nifty👋👋👋 Friends, What's your view on Nifty???
Nifty was in big pressure during previous weeks because of global events and higher tariffs from US. But last week was good recover week because of big events of IndoEU trade deal and more importantly confirmation on IndoUS FTA. These events pushed positivity in the market and price shown upside move of ~1500 points and finally closed above 25600 (@25693)
On Tuesday Price gaped up ~1200 points and fell sharply losing ~ 600 points from high of the day. Price went on range bound for remaining three days, however price closed in slightly positive mode on Friday.
FIIs/DIIs both were net buyer at the end of week. FIIs - 2,645.53 and DIIs - 2,892.14.
Considering all these factors Nifty should move up side. Our first target level should be 26000 and then all-time high.
Critical points ……………….
1. Price closed positively after sharp fall from the high of Tuesday.
2. Currently price at critical level and most probably it will go upside.
3. Critical Support level is 25500.
4. We should see some really good bullish price formation if price willing to go upside.
5. We should patiently wait for the formation of entry model at least at 1H/15m)
6. If Global sentiments are positive and price gets support from volume at key level, we may see some really good buy scenarios.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Weekly Analysis with buy/Sell scenarios in Gold/XAUUSD👋👋👋 Friends, What's your view on Gold ???
Week on Week basis price of Gold shown too much volatility. Price opened ~ $55 gap down and sharply fell and made low of day and week. Next day it showed recover and further three days it was range bound.
Now price is showing change in state of delivery. We may expect slightly slip/consolidation on Monday and later on it may further take the rout of POI/Key Level of 4500. Which is again a very strong round number as well. At this level we may witness reversal pattern/entry model which may further take the price upside to make new highs.
Critical notes.
1. Price may show some consolidation on early sessions or Monday/Tuesday.
2. High probably we will witness KOD and move into lower quadrant of weekly time frame.
3. There should be a proper entry model formation at identified POI/Key level
4. Most probably price will take liquidity of Key Level/FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
5. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (1h/15m) at Key Level/FVG zone.
6. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high RnR trade scenario.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Part 1 Technical Analysis Vs. Institutional Trading Volatility and Option Trading
Volatility is the backbone of option pricing.
Types of Volatility
Historical Volatility – Past price movement.
Implied Volatility (IV) – Market’s expectation of future volatility.
High IV → Expensive options.
Low IV → Cheap options.
Option sellers prefer high IV, while buyers prefer low IV with upcoming expansion.
Part 1 Support and Resistance Option Buyers
Limited risk (premium paid).
Require strong price movement.
Benefit from volatility.
Time works against them due to time decay.
Option Sellers (Writers)
Limited profit (premium received).
Potentially unlimited risk (especially naked positions).
Benefit from time decay.
Prefer range-bound markets.
USDCHF Is Not Weak – It’s Testing Support!USD/CHF is currently trading inside a well-defined rising channel, and the recent move lower looks more like a pullback into trend support rather than a breakdown.
For me, this is typical behavior in trending markets. Strong moves don’t continue in a straight line, price pulls back, tests support, and then decides the next direction based on reaction.
As long as the rising support holds, the broader structure remains intact. The next move will depend on how price behaves from this zone, not on short-term volatility.
This is a structure observation, not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Part 1 Intraday Master Class Introduction to Option Trading
Option trading is a form of derivatives trading that gives market participants the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified time period. Unlike traditional stock trading—where investors buy or sell shares outright—options allow traders to control risk, enhance returns, hedge portfolios, or speculate on price movements with relatively lower capital.
Options are widely used in equity markets, commodity markets, currency markets, and index trading. Over time, option trading has evolved from a niche hedging tool into a sophisticated financial instrument used by retail traders, institutional investors, hedge funds, and market makers.
A strong rally on the wayNifty Mid cap 50 CMP -17k
Elliott- the deep correction is the c wave which has its own 5 waves. Hence I know the correction is over. The rally is the start of a new impulse wave. The dip is the wave 2 and now wave 3 will commence.
Breakout - the retest of the breakout zone on the weekly chart on the right is further confirming the positive stand.
MA- the Index bounced back from the breakout zone which also has the slowest MA underneath. Hence we know the Index is at a strong support zone.
Oscillators- on the weekly chart the oscillators have come down to previous support . On the daily chart the RSI is taking a dip just above the MA cross. This is again very positive.
Conclusion- we know how strong 3rd waves are. And every other tool is indicating a strong rally ahead. We will look at tgts once the third wave commences. But what is vital right now is the direction. And the direction is definitely north.






















