XAG/USD (Silver Spot vs. US Dollar) Analysis - Monthly Chart ~~ XAG/USD (Silver Spot vs. US Dollar) Analysis ~~
#Current Price and Recent Performance
As of June 18, 2025, the XAG/USD spot price is approximately $37.00 per troy ounce at the time of posting, reflecting a 13-year high. Silver has surged nearly 30% year-to-date in 2025, driven by heightened safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and global economic uncertainties. Over the past month, silver prices have risen by 12.43%, and year-over-year, they are up 23.33%.
-- Key Drivers of Recent Trends
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating conflicts, such as Israel’s military actions in Iran, have boosted demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold. This has been a significant catalyst for silver’s rally, with prices climbing in tandem with gold.
US Dollar Weakness: A softer US dollar, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and softer inflation data, has supported higher silver prices. Since silver is priced in USD, a weaker dollar makes it more affordable for foreign investors, increasing demand.
Industrial Demand: Silver’s dual role as a precious and industrial metal (used in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices) accounts for ~56% of its demand. Growing industrial applications, particularly in green technologies, continue to support price growth.
Supply Constraints: A persistent supply deficit of 150–200 million ounces annually (10–20% of total supply) and declining above-ground inventories by nearly 500 million ounces in recent years have tightened the market, pushing prices higher.
Speculative Activity: Futures and spot market trading on exchanges like COMEX and the London Bullion Market, coupled with speculative interest, contribute to price volatility. The market is also influenced by “paper silver” (futures, ETFs), which some argue suppresses physical silver prices.
~~Technical Analysis~~
Current Levels and Trends: Silver is trading above the key support zone of $34.90–$35.15, maintaining a bullish outlook. Recent suggest a strong bullish trend, with a breakout above a downward trend line and minor resistance on the 4-hour chart.
Support and Resistance:
Support: Key levels include $34.99, $33.70, $32.67, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at ~$35.00.
Resistance: Immediate resistance lies at $37.85, with further targets at $38.00 and potentially $40.34–$44.21 in the coming weeks or months.
-- Disclaimer --
This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading.
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XAG/USD Rejection Looming at Key Resistance – Bearish Reversal A🔍 Chart Analysis – XAG/USD
1. Trend & EMAs:
The chart shows two key exponential moving averages:
📈 EMA 50 (Red): 33.1940
📉 EMA 200 (Blue): 32.8684
Price is currently above both EMAs, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but a possible bearish rejection is forming near resistance.
2. Key Zones:
🟥 Resistance Zone: 33.45 – 33.60
Price has repeatedly tested this zone and reversed, suggesting strong selling pressure.
Multiple wicks into this zone show buyer exhaustion.
🟩 Support Zone: 32.60 – 32.85
Strong demand observed here with consistent bounces.
The EMA 200 also aligns with this support, reinforcing its strength.
3. Price Behavior & Pattern:
🧱 Repetitive Bearish Drops: Marked by blue rectangles, suggesting a pattern of sharp sell-offs after touching resistance.
🔁 Potential Double Top Pattern forming near the resistance zone, a classic bearish reversal signal.
🧭 The projected path suggests:
A short-term retest of the resistance.
Followed by a pullback toward the support zone around 32.60.
Breakdown below support could open further downside potential.
📌 Summary:
⚠️ Short-Term Outlook: Bearish bias if resistance holds.
📍 Key Level to Watch: 33.60 (breakout) and 32.60 (breakdown).
🔄 Trade Plan:
Consider short entries near 33.45–33.60 resistance zone with stops above 33.65.
Target around 32.65–32.60 support zone.
📊 Indicators in Play:
EMA confluence supports trend analysis.
Price structure and rejection patterns suggest likely mean reversion to support.
"Silver on the Rise: RBR Zone Holds the Key to $33.49!"Key Zones:
🔵 RBR Zone (Rally-Base-Rally):
🔹 Acts as support
🔹 Price consolidating above it
🔹 If held, it could trigger a move up
📍 Support:
RBR Zone: ~$31.80–$32.10
Deeper support at $30.45 🛡️
🎯 Target Point: $33.49
Strong resistance zone
Previous high zone = profit-taking spot
📉 Downside Risk:
If price breaks below RBR zone and trendline
Could fall to $30.45 support zone
Trend Structure:
📈 Uptrend (Higher Highs + Higher Lows)
🧵 Trendline acting as dynamic support
🟡 Price bouncing from marked pivot zones
Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Case:
✅ Hold RBR zone
✅ Bounce from trendline
🚀 Target = $33.49
🔴 Bearish Case:
❌ Break below RBR zone
⚠️ Risk drop to $30.45
Summary:
📊 Bias: Bullish above $32.00
📥 Entry Idea: Buy from RBR zone on confirmation
🎯 Target: $33.49
❌ Stop Loss: Below $31.50
XAGUSD_4HXAGUSD_4H ANALYSIS
Everything is mentioned on Charts.
Please always look for double confirmation before entry
Wish you Happy & safe Trading.
Trade as per your own RISK
Please Note:
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please consult your financial advisor before Trading or Investing.
I'm not responsible for any kinds of your Profits & Losses.
XAG/SILVER 4H BUY PROJECTION 19.08.24Silver tends to outperform gold in terms of return and can deliver a higher return on investment. However, silver's real value is as a hedge and safe haven asset and the primary reason to own silver is not about wealth accumulation but about wealth protection and hedging risk in an uncertain world.
XAGUSD - This pullback is an opportunity!Silver was following an upward move with gold and stayed strong until there came some dollar strength-ness, last week gold sold off heavily and thus pushing silver lower towards 29.2 levels, this bearishness may vanish with coming days, as global tension rise due to war situation, and risk off assets like gold and silver may show bullish moves again, if you want to buy silver, consider for a strict stop-loss.
Important- This is my own view and not financial advice, trading is highly risky, do calculate your risk before trading.
Ignored us now face the consequences
In short our additional full net short size in both of our precious metals is well justified from the reward and risk perspective at the time of writing this article/idea
In our previous post we already mentioned many times that friday's session can be volatile and very tricky to predict and could affect gold and silver prices in short term and that seems to be the case for silver,The white metal declined at the start of the session but quickly erased all the downswing from it's initial low,we already mentioned that white metal could reach to about 16.600 and this level has already reached but the real question is silver about take a big decline same as in lat dec 2017?
yes,that's very probable but here is a twist decline may not start immediately it can take some days to start,if you try to look at the lack of a visible rally in friday and compare it with proximity of the triangle apex reversal you will get your answer,in short we still may see a small rally in white metal in about 3-4 days before it plunges back
we were and still are in a situation where white metal metal could decline sharply immediately or it could go up just a bit and then decline anyway.we don't think waiting for better prices in gold and silver will be an informed decision ,That's why we decided to increase our net short size in our portfolio management.
in our last post we wrote which is still up to date
In friday's intrday follow up,silver moved higher than its target level but gold didn't,it served a strong bearish sign as it was clear that silver is outperforming gold in a dramatic manner in short term,most of the time it helps to make big decline in white metal.
session seems very similar to the mentioned nov 1 2017 session and implications therfore are bearish anyway
mining stocks reversal-gold mining stocks moved much lower after the closing bell,thing to note is despite the rally and strength in S&P 500 It moved lower,really miners only had the strength for the intial rally,Before the closing bell bears had took control over the miners and bulls were exhausted,
It's not happen very often when HUI index,miners and precious metals all generating the same signal,in short if you try to look at mining stock and precious metals it seems very likely that we are going to see big decline soon,only currency market is not cofirming our view at this point so it might postpone the decline for short term.
Imagine the gold without usd
you can't na? so let's jump right into our usd index the biggest factor which determines the prices of precious metals in near term,in our previous post we told that USD index was above its strong support level and big picture is remained bullish,USD index didn't even touched its support level but instead it moved higher,so did usd index already made its final bottom?
Still as a portfolio manager/ trader we try to think without being attached to our current position so we could form a unbiased perspective on precious metal market
what could go wrong-Breakdown below the 89.300 level will complete a short term head and shoulders pattern and this pushes prices down to feb low,it will means that 87.600 will be the next target but is it possible? in trading anything can but the probability is much-much lower as the multiple long term resistance level are present around the jan and feb low,on a short term head and shoulders pattern and this pushes prices down to feb low,on a short term basis a move below 89.300 can precide a quick decline to about 88.70,well this is a less likely outcome,the most probable outcome will be that we could see a rally above 91.20 which will precides a big rally to almost 94,this will be a very critical sign that small breakdown is invalidated below the very long term declining resistance
overall our full net short position is justified at the time of publishing this article