Gold trading strategy before CPI newsAccording to a Reuters poll, the U.S. monthly core CPI was expected to rise 0.3% in October, up 4.1% from the same month last year. The estimated intensity for September was similar for both.
This statistical range could strengthen expectations that the Fed will raise rates further in December, raising rates between 5.50% and 5.75%. However, the market continues to expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its December meeting and a 75% chance that it will cut rates next July. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said further developments on the data would be really important, especially in ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes.
Ellam said the dangerous risks from the Israeli-Hamas conflict have not yet completely subsided and could easily recur at any time, but as it subsides, data and the economy will return to being more important factors. He said he would come.
Economists at Morgan Stanley expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in June 2024. These expected reductions are on the order of 25 basis points and will ultimately lead to lower energy prices. The key interest rate will fall to 2.375% by the end of 2025.
