XAUUSD - Elliot Wave completed.Wave C Recovery May Offer a Fresh Sell Opportunity Within the Medium-Term Downtrend
Hello everyone, here is my view on the current XAUUSD setup.
Market Analysis
Gold is still trading inside a medium-term descending channel, which means the broader structure remains bearish despite the recent rebound from the lower zone. On the chart, price has already completed a strong decline and is now entering what looks like a corrective Wave C recovery.
This rebound does not change the main trend yet. Instead, it may simply be a recovery leg back into liquidity and resistance before sellers step in again. The most important detail here is that price is still moving below the descending trendline, while the market continues to respect the broader bearish channel.
The current upside move is approaching a key reaction area around 4500–4620, where the chart marks both a buy resistance zone and a sell FVG area to complete Wave C. This creates an important confluence zone. If price continues pushing higher into this liquidity pocket, it may offer a cleaner location for sellers to re-enter in line with the main trend.
Below the market, the 4300 area remains an important liquidity zone, and deeper weakness could later expose the 4134 region if bearish pressure returns strongly.
Key Price Areas to Watch
Wave C sell zone / resistance: 4500–4620
Current price area: around 4579
Major swing sell zone above: near 4845
Liquidity support below: around 4300
Lower bearish target: around 4134
My Scenario & Strategy
My preferred scenario is to treat the current recovery as a corrective Wave C move, not a confirmed bullish reversal. As long as gold remains below the descending trendline and inside the medium-term bearish structure, I continue to favor selling from strength rather than chasing the rebound.
If price pushes further into the 4500–4620 liquidity resistance zone and starts showing rejection, that area may become the ideal place to look for a sell continuation setup in line with the broader downtrend. From there, gold could rotate lower again toward 4300 first, and if selling momentum builds, the decline may extend toward 4134.
However, if price breaks cleanly above the resistance zone and starts holding above it, the current bearish continuation view would weaken, and the market could shift into a broader recovery phase.
That’s the setup I’m watching for now. Thank you for reading, and always manage your risk carefully.
Short
