XAUUSD 7/30/2024 How far will the price go?
After the 5-wave downtrend structure, we are witnessing an increase from 2354 to 2402
- So we will have 2 cases either the 5-wave downtrend structure has completed wave C then we have the current increase as a 5-wave structure, case 2 is the 5-wave downtrend structure above has just completed wave 1 in the 5-wave structure of wave C so the current increase is wave 2 and will have an ABC wave structure.
- We will have an important price to confirm that is the price of 2402, both cases need the price to break out through 2402. After the price breaks out through 2402 and the price returns below 2402, then we will lean towards the current situation being just a correction wave 2 in the 5-wave structure of the purple wave C. If the price breaks out through 2418, we will lean towards the possibility that this is a 5-wave increase structure and the possibility that the price will break through the peak of 2433.
So at the 2418 area, this is the current area containing a large amount of supply, which will be a strong resistance level for the price, so when the price touches this area, there will be a reaction, and we will choose this area as the SELL target
Trading plan
SELL ZONE: 2415 -2418
SL: 2425
TP1: 2402
TP2: 2390 TP3: 2374 BUY ZONE: 2357 - 2354 SL: 2347 TP1: 2365 TP2: 2374 TP3: 2382
Xauusd(w)
XAUUSD 1H Sell Projection Customs duty cuts: The Indian government announced cuts to customs duty on gold in the Union Budget 2024, reducing it from 15% to 6%.
Concerns over demand in China: Demand for gold in China may also have contributed to the price drop.
Better-than-expected US data: Better-than-expected US Q2 GDP and jobless claims data may have also put downward pressure on gold prices.
XAUUSD 7/29/2024 Is the uptrend over?
Looking at H1, we can see that the corrective uptrend may have ended.
- The price will continue to move in a downtrend to complete the purple wave C as shown on the chart.
During the move to the target price zone of wave C, we see that at the 2374 treble line, this is the previous breakout price zone and has not been retested, so there is still a very strong demand force in this price zone.
- We expect the price to bounce back to the 2374 zone, so we will place a BUY order in this zone.
Trading plan
BUY ZONE: 2376 - 2373
SL: 2366
TP1: 2382
TP2: 2400
TP3: 2410
SELL ZONE: 2314 - 2417
SL: 2424
TP1: 2401
TP: 2382
TP3: 2365
XAUUSD BUY & SELL PROJECTION 27.02.24Buy Reason
The allure of non-yielding bullion tends to increase when interest rates are lowered because the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases. Investor sentiment has played a significant role in the recent spike in gold prices. The current market positioning reflects a strong bullish outlook on gold.
Sell Reason
The reasons why gold prices may experience a fall in value include an excess of supply relative to demand and shifts in investor sentiment. A strong dollar and rising interest rates can also hurt the price of gold, as can low inflation.
XAUUSD 7/26/2024 Is there a pullback?
Looking at H1, we see that the price breaking the 2382.5 zone has confirmed that the price is in the purple wave C
- From the peak of 2433 to the bottom of 2353, we see a small 5-wave structure has been completed and now we see that the bullish recovery wave is continuing, we expect a corrective wave
- The target of the rebound wave I measured at the price zone of 2402 and the price zone of 2411
- So this increase we expect is a rebound wave before the bearish wave continues to the target zone of the purple wave C
- The target of the purple wave C we measured at the zone of 2334 and the zone of 2307
Trading plan
BUY ZONE: 2366 - 2363
SL: 2356
TP1: 2382
TP2: 2394
TP3: 2402
SELL ZONE: 2310 - 2312
SL: 2320 TP1: 2400 TP2: 2390 TP3: 2382
XAUUSD/GOLD Forcast Core PCE Price Index m/mThe Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item
Gold price rebounds from 50-SMA ahead of Fed inflationGold consolidates weekly loss while posting a corrective bounce from the lowest level in 13 days as traders await the US Core PCE Price Index for June, also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. In doing so, the precious metal takes a U-turn from the 50-SMA but stays on the way to posting a second consecutive weekly loss after refreshing the all-time high during mid-July. Despite the latest rebound in prices, the commodity’s sustained trading below a month-old rising support line, now resistance near $2,428, joins the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI (14) line to keep the sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the 50-SMA level of $2,359 becomes necessary to recall the bullion sellers. Following that, the 100-SMA level of $2,324 and an upward-sloping support line from early May, near the $2,300 threshold, appear as some of the last defenses of the buyers. It’s worth observing that lows marked in May and June around $2,285 and $2,277 will act as additional downside filters for the metal traders to watch during its declines past $2,300.
Meanwhile, the 21-SMA level of $2,388 and the $2,400 threshold guard the immediate upside of the Gold price ahead of the support-turned-resistance line surrounding $2,428. Following that, May’s high of $2,450 and the latest peak surrounding $2,484 could entertain the XAUUSD bulls. However, an upward-sloping trend line resistance from early April, near $2,490 as we write, quickly followed by the $2,500 round figure, appear tough nuts to crack for the bullion buyers.
To sum up, Gold is likely to remain pressured within a trading range established since April. However, the trend line breakdown can join upbeat Fed inflation to please short-term sellers.
XAUUSD 4H Sell Limit Projection 25.07.24The direct impact of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's surprise cut of customs duty on gold, silver and other precious gems and jewellery has been on the streets. Prices have crashed by around Rs 4,000 in the few hours since the budget proposal was made in parliament.2 days ago
XAUUSDAfter the strong drop in the price, Gold came into my interesting buy zone - the grey box and some buyers are stepping in. Now what I would like to see is a retracement all the way back up if possible. To get that I would like to see that structure confirm me that on smaller timeframes - more specifically, I want to see break of 15min bearish structure.
UPDATED THOUGTHS ON VIDEO ANALYSISHello traders, I am here with another video, this time with update from the last video I posted as today is Wednesday already. Currently it seem that some good set ups are developing on: NzdCad, EurJpy, AudNzd, AudChf, NzdUsd, EurUsd. I will be waiting to see what price will show me on this pairs. Thank you for following me, I will update you all with new analysis and thoughts once I see something interesting.
XAUUSD July 24, 2024 Where will the rally go?
As in the previous day's forecast, after the 5-wave trend is the ABC correction wave
- Looking at H1 we can label wave a and wave b as shown on the chart. Currently, we expect wave C to complete so we can enter orders
- Wave C target we measure 2 targets: price range 2420 and price range 2433.
- After completing the next abc correction, it will be a 5-wave pattern following the previous downtrend
Trading plan
SELL ZONE: 2431 - 2435
SL: 2440
TP1: 2411
TP2: 2394
TP3: 2382
BUY ZONE: 2476 - 2471
SL: 2466
TP1: 2382
TP2: 2394
Gold increases sharply: Investors look for a safe place
The US dollar rallied early Wednesday as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. Asian shares came under pressure after disappointing tech earnings reports from major companies such as Alphabet and Tesla. Alphabet achieved good revenue and profits but needed time to see results from its investment in artificial intelligence, while Tesla dropped 7% due to profits not meeting expectations and postponing the Robotaxi event. Fears of a Chinese economic slowdown also supported safe-haven demand for the greenback.
On Tuesday, the US dollar rebounded significantly on market jitters ahead of important earnings reports from US companies and a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Investors take profits on USD short positions ahead of Wednesday's preliminary Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data. Weak PMI data could spark recession fears, creating fresh demand for the US dollar.
Gold prices could benefit from this scenario if concerns about the US economy reinforce dovish Fed expectations. The market is currently pricing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September at a 97% probability. All eyes are on the US Q2 GDP report on Thursday and June PCE inflation data on Friday to monitor gold price movements.
Note price range:
Sell zones: 2424 - 2426
Stop loss: 2430
Take profit 1: 2414
Take profit 2: 2400
Sell zones: 2440 - 2442
Stop loss: 2446
Take profit 1: 2430
Take profit 2: 2420
XAUUSD 1H W Pattern Formation 24.07.24The W pattern is made up of several key components. The first bottom usually forms after a prolonged price decline, indicating the lowest point of the current downtrend. The price then rises, forming the middle peak, before declining again to form the second bottom.
Gold hesitates amid opposing market signals
Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to gain during the Asian trading session Tuesday, although still above the lowest level of the past week. Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 election has increased Donald Trump's chances, suggesting a looser regulatory environment. At the same time, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly cut interest rates on Monday, which supported upbeat market sentiment and created a drag on gold, a safe-haven precious metal. .
Dovish Fed expectations also played an important role in limiting losses for gold. The market currently believes that the Fed will begin lowering interest rates in September and could cut twice more by the end of the year. These predictions have led to a decline in US bond yields, putting pressure on the dollar and thereby supporting the price of gold, a non-yielding asset.
Against this backdrop, investors should cautiously wait for further sell-offs before positioning for an extended pullback from recent record highs. Uncertainty about monetary policy and global economic factors continue to strongly influence gold prices, and investment decisions should be based on careful analysis of the current situation.
Interesting price areas:
Buy zone: 2367 - 2365
Stop loss: 2361
Take profit 1: 2375
Take profit 2: 2385
Sell zone: 2418 - 2420
Stop loss: 2424
Take profit 1: 2410
Take profit 2: 2400
XAUUSD July 23, 2024 Where will the rising wave go?
Looking at the H1 chart, we have a completed 5-wave bearish pattern
- The target of wave 5 has been achieved near the price range of 2382 that I predicted yesterday
- After completing the next wave 5, there will be 2 cases, the first case is that the price continues the 5-wave impulse wave pattern. The second case is the abc bullish correction pattern.
- Regardless of the pattern, we now expect a price increase at least according to the abc correction pattern
- The target of ending the correction wave will be specifically determined when the wave has completed at least 2 waves a and b. Based on current price data, I estimate the target of the correction wave is the price range 2433.
- If this rally gets past 2453 then we will be leaning towards a trend rally to 2500 then I will update everyone.
Trading plan
BUY: 2491 - 2488
SL 2483
TP1: 2420
TP2: 2433
SELL ZONE: 2433 - 2436
SL: 2431
TP1: 2411
TP2: 2494
XAUUSD 1H BUY PROJECTION 23.07.24Throughout history, gold has been seen as a special and valuable commodity. Today, owning gold can act as a hedge against inflation and deflation alike, as well as a good portfolio diversifier. As a global store of value, gold can also provide financial cover during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The gold market is full of risks, investors should be careful
Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their losing streak for a third trading day, falling to nearly $2,410 during the European session on Friday. The precious metal is under profit-taking pressure after hitting a record high above $2,480 on Tuesday. The strong recovery of the USD and bond yields pulled gold prices lower.
Expectations for Donald Trump to return as President of the United States have increased following his assassination. The prospect that President Joe Biden could abandon his re-election bid due to his health also boosted Trump's chances of winning. Trump, with his protectionist trade policies, has increased the attractiveness of the USD, contributing to downward pressure on gold prices.
Political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, along with demand for gold from central banks, could limit the decline in gold prices. Investors see any further price decline as a buying opportunity, based on expectations that prices will rebound once current negative factors are resolved.
Price range to note:
Buy zone: 2399 - 2401
Stop loss: 2395
Take profit 1: 2410
Take profit 2: 2420
Buy zone: 2391 - 2389
Stop loss: 2385
Take profit 1: 2390
Take profit 2: 2400
What factors are holding back the increase in gold prices?
Gold prices (XAU/USD) attracted buyers in early trading on Monday, ending a three-day decline from last week's record high. Dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race have caused some investors to cancel bets on a Trump victory. This reduces the strength of the US dollar and supports gold prices.
In addition, concerns about slowing economic growth in China, geopolitical risks from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and conflict in the Middle East also contributed to raising gold prices. These factors continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
However, XAU/USD is yet to see a strong buying move as traders await US Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE) data on Friday. This data will provide clues about Fed policy, which will determine the near-term trajectory for gold prices.
Note price range:
Buy zone: 2392 - 2390
Stop loss: 2386
Take profit 1: 2400
Take profit 2: 2410
Buy zone: 2430- 2432
Stop loss: 2436
Take profit 1: 2420
Take profit 2: 2410
XAUUSD July 22, 2024 Is the decline over?
The information that President Biden withdrew from running due to his health further confirmed Trump's high chance of winning the election. This information immediately caused XAU to gap up on Monday morning
Looking at H1 we see a sharp sharp decline, this is the ongoing wave 3.
- At the price range of 2394, we have a strong rebound. From this rebound we expect that wave 3 has ended and this rebound is wave 4.
- The target of wave 4 I measured at the price range 2420 or price range 2428
- After completing wave 4, the price continues to decrease to complete the 5-wave pattern
- With the current price data, I can temporarily measure the expected target of wave 5, the last down wave of this downtrend, at the price range of 2382 or the price range of 2366.
- After the end of this price reduction, we expect a strong recovery and I will update the specifics of this recovery after the price completes this 5-wave decline.
- Our trading strategy is to observe price reactions at support and resistance zones to enter orders