GOLD (XAU/USD) 4H CHART – BULLISH BREAKOUT TRADE SETUP🔵 Trendline Breakout 📈
📏 Price broke above a descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
🔼 This breakout is often seen as a buy signal by traders.
🧱 Resistance Area 🛑
🔹 Price has entered and broken through a horizontal resistance zone.
🔄 This zone may now flip into support, adding confidence to the long setup.
🟧 Demand Zone 📦
📍 Marked between 3,267 – 3,298.
🛡️ Strong buying interest historically observed in this area.
📉 EMA (70) at 3,298.065 acts as dynamic support.
🟦 Entry Point 🚪
🎯 Entry Level: 3,322.930
🔄 Enter after retest confirmation or bullish candle above resistance.
🔴 Stop Loss ⛔
⚠️ SL Level: 3,267.993
💣 Below the demand zone and EMA — protecting against false breakouts.
🟩 Target Point 🎯
🚀 TP Level: 3,490.000
📌 Prior high zone — strong historical resistance expected here.
💰 Trade Setup Summary
✅ Buy Above: 3,322.930
❌ Stop Loss: 3,267.993
🎯 Target: 3,490.000
📊 Risk/Reward Ratio: Favorable (approx. 1:3)
🔎 Technical Confidence Levels
🔵 EMA Support ✅
🔵 Trendline Breakout ✅
🔵 Resistance Flip ✅
🔴 False Breakout Risk
Xauusd(w)
Gold Surges Amid Middle East TensionsXAUUSD – Gold Surges Amid Middle East Tensions | What’s Next After 3430 Break?
🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Overview
Gold prices accelerated sharply in the Asian session on June 13 after Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities including the Natanz uranium enrichment site.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared the mission would continue until the Iranian nuclear threat is “completely neutralized.”
Iran suffered major losses and scrambled its air force to prepare for retaliation.
WTI oil jumped over 8%, gold spiked to $3,430/oz, and US equities dropped sharply.
While the US claimed it would not participate directly in the attack, it vowed to defend its forces in the region if threatened.
This rapidly escalating geopolitical conflict has triggered a renewed flight into safe-haven assets, with gold leading the pack.
📉 Technical Outlook – M30 / H1 Chart
🔹 Trend Structure
Gold has broken out decisively above 3,392, forming a strong bullish leg and carving new short-term support around 3,412 – 3,426.
Price action is forming a Higher High – Higher Low structure within a rising channel.
🔹 Fair Value Gap (FVG)
A visible FVG between 3,405 – 3,412 has formed. As long as price holds above this zone, bullish continuation is favored.
🔹 EMA Structure
Price is well above all key EMAs (13, 34, 89, 200), confirming a strong bullish environment. EMA13 continues to guide intraday momentum.
🔹 Key Resistance Zone
Watch for potential distribution or profit-taking around 3,441 – 3,456 – a major resistance area if no further escalation occurs.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Behavior
Investor sentiment has shifted firmly into risk-off mode.
Funds are flowing heavily into gold, oil, CHF, and JPY.
Price volatility is likely to spike further, as headlines continue to drive intraday sentiment.
🎯 Updated Trade Setup – 13 June
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3384 – 3382
Stop-Loss: 3378
Take-Profit: 3388 → 3392 → 3396 → 3400 → 3405 → 3410
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3454 – 3456
Stop-Loss: 3460
Take-Profit: 3450 → 3446 → 3442 → 3438 → 3434 → 3430
✅ Conclusion
The renewed conflict between Israel and Iran is fueling gold’s rise as global risk appetite collapses. Technically, the trend remains bullish, but volatility is extremely elevated. Traders should watch key price zones closely and avoid emotional trades during event-driven spikes.
⚠️ Trade the reaction, not the prediction. Let key levels confirm bias before entering.
XAUUSD – Testing the Descending Trendline, Awaiting FOMC SignalsGold has rebounded to the 3,371 zone after U.S. CPI data showed cooling inflation, putting pressure on the USD. The price is now approaching the descending trendline and the 3,400 resistance zone – a level that marked the top on June 5.
If this area fails to break clearly, gold is likely to pull back toward the 3,327 support – the confluence of the EMA89 and a recent low. On the other hand, if the FOMC delivers a dovish signal, price could break out and aim for 3,457.
Trade Setup:
SELL near 3,400 if rejection candles appear
BUY near 3,327 if bullish reversal signals show
BUY breakout above 3,405 if FOMC supports further gains
XAUUSD – CPI Data Pushes Gold HigherXAUUSD – CPI Data Pushes Gold Higher | Should You Follow the Trend or Sell the Top?
Gold prices surged strongly after the US CPI report came in lower than expected. This triggered a sharp drop in the US Dollar and yields, while boosting demand for safe-haven assets. The question now: Is this the beginning of a new leg higher, or a setup for a short-term correction?
🌐 MACRO & MARKET SENTIMENT
📰 US CPI (May): Increased only 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY vs. forecast of 2.5%.
➤ This softer inflation reading reignited expectations that the Fed may cut rates as early as September.
📉 USD Weakness: The Dollar Index (DXY) dropped ~0.4%, making gold cheaper and more attractive for global investors.
📉 Bond Yields Falling: US 10Y yields declined, further increasing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding safe asset.
💡 Market Psychology: Traders are rotating capital back into gold ahead of FOMC and geopolitical uncertainties (China, Middle East).
📈 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – H1 & H4 STRUCTURE
🔹 Trend Structure
Gold remains in a Higher High – Higher Low formation since the 3,312 level. Price recently broke above the 3,360–3,374 resistance and is now consolidating around 3,375 — a possible accumulation before breakout.
🔹 Price Channel
Gold is respecting an ascending channel with the lower bound aligning with the key support area at 3,339 – 3,345. As long as this zone holds, bulls are in control.
🔹 EMA Indicators
EMA13 / EMA34: Price is comfortably above both — indicating strong short-term momentum.
EMA89 / EMA200: Both EMAs are well below price action, confirming a medium-term bullish trend.
🔹 Caution Zone
Resistance at 3,392 – 3,395 is a key area to watch for reversal patterns (Pin Bars, Bearish Engulfing, etc.)
If price pulls back to 3,339 – 3,345 and holds, it can offer high-probability long entries with trend continuation.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3324 – 3322
Stop-Loss: 3318
Take-Profit Targets: 3330, 3334, 3338, 3342, 3346, 3350
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3337 – 3335
Stop-Loss: 3330
Take-Profit Targets: 3341, 3345, 3350, 3354, 3360, 3370, 3380
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3392 – 3394
Stop-Loss: 3398
Take-Profit Targets: 3388, 3384, 3380, 3375, 3370, 3360, 3350
🧠 CONCLUSION
The lower-than-expected CPI has given gold a short-term macro boost, and technically, bulls remain in control. However, caution is needed near the 3,392 zone — where price could face strong supply and trigger a pullback.
✅ Trade with confirmation, not assumptions. Let the price action guide your next move.
Gold Holds Breath for CPI – Decisive Catalyst or Price Trap?XAUUSD: Gold Holds Breath for CPI – Decisive Catalyst or Price Trap?
🌍 Macro Landscape: Gold Awaits CPI, Real Interest Rate Pressure
The Gold market (XAUUSD) is in a highly sensitive phase as investors hold their breath for the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report during the U.S. session. CPI is the most crucial inflation gauge, and any deviation from expectations can trigger significant market shocks, especially for safe-haven assets like gold.
In this context, real interest rates are playing a pivotal role. If inflation cools faster than anticipated (lower CPI), pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates will increase, leading to a drop in bond yields and making gold more attractive. Conversely, if inflation remains "sticky" (higher CPI), the Fed may maintain a "higher-for-longer" policy stance, pushing bond yields up and putting downward pressure on gold due to the increased opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed's Caution, BoJ's Waiting Game
Federal Reserve (Fed): FOMC members continue to signal patience with rate cuts. Recent inflation data shows persistent price pressures, particularly in the services sector, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish bias. This creates pressure on gold if the USD continues to strengthen due to higher interest rates.
Bank of Japan (BoJ): (While not directly related to XAUUSD, global policy divergence still impacts capital flows and sentiment. For Gold, our focus is primarily on the Fed and other major central banks.)
The divergence in global monetary policies, especially between the Fed and other major central banks, is creating a volatile environment for the gold market.
🌐 Capital Flows: Gold & USD – The Safe-Haven Race Amid Instability
Global capital flow models suggest that the USD and Gold are currently the two most sought-after safe-haven assets amidst geopolitical tensions (such as US-China tensions) and EU fiscal risks.
If the upcoming CPI data surprises the market, it could trigger significant capital flows between the USD (a yielding asset) and gold (a non-yielding asset). A lower-than-expected CPI could boost inflows into gold, while a higher CPI could reinforce USD strength and push gold prices lower.
📊 Technical Structure (M30 Chart): Gold in Decision Zone
On the M30 chart for XAUUSD:
Primary Trend: Gold prices are currently in a consolidation or slight correction phase, accumulating before the CPI news. The EMA 13 - 34 - 89 - 200 indicators present a mixed picture, with the price oscillating around the short-term MAs, while the longer-term MA (EMA 200) still acts as dynamic support/resistance. A "fan-out formation" or MA crossovers will be crucial signals confirming the next trend direction.
Crucial Resistance Zone (SELL Zone): Around 3374 - 3376. This is a strong resistance area where the price has reacted or has the potential to reverse. If the price rallies and approaches this zone before or after the CPI news without breaking through, it presents a potential selling opportunity.
Crucial Support Zone (BUY ZONE): Around 3314 - 3312. This is a strong support area where the price may find significant buying pressure to bounce. If the price corrects to this zone and shows bullish reversal signals (e.g., hammer candle, bullish engulfing), it presents a potential buying opportunity.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations
Scenario 1 – BUY (Await reaction at support):
Entry: 3314 - 3312 (Wait for bullish reversal candle confirmation or strong buying pressure in this zone).
Stop-Loss: 3308 (Just below the support zone for capital protection).
Take-Profit:
TP1: 3318
TP2: 3322
TP3: 3326
TP4: 3330
TP5: 3335
TP6: 3340
Scenario 2 – SELL (Await reaction at resistance):
Entry: 3374 - 3376 (Wait for bearish reversal candle confirmation or strong selling pressure in this zone).
Stop-Loss: 3380 (Just above the resistance zone for capital protection).
Take-Profit:
TP1: 3370
TP2: 3366
TP3: 3362
TP4: 3358
TP5: 3352
TP6: 3348
TP7: 3340
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
U.S. CPI Report (U.S. session): This is the most critical event, which will dictate gold's primary direction in the short term. Be prepared for strong volatility upon its release.
Any statements from Fed members: Comments on inflation or monetary policy can impact market sentiment.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (June 12, 2025)📊 Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (June 12, 2025)
🌀 Wave Structure
According to yesterday's plan, the green abc corrective wave likely completed around the 3293 level. The subsequent bullish move is considered Wave 1 in a triangle form, and last night’s news helped Wave 5 hit the target, yielding over 200 pips in profit.
After that, price corrected in a black abc structure. Although the CPI release printed a sharp H1 wick (alongside overlapping waves supporting sellers), the price reversed sharply to the upside — further reinforcing the idea that the correction phase has ended.
Currently, price is testing the previous green Wave b high at 3375.954. A break and close above this level could strengthen the bullish wave scenario. If Wave 1 is indeed a triangle, Wave 3 may extend strongly, with a potential upside target near 3428.
In the short term, price may be forming Wave 1 within Wave 3, and we are watching two key zones:
3358 – 3355
3390 – 3393
⚠️ If price breaks and closes below 3350, the current wave count will be invalidated, and we will shift to a deeper corrective scenario. I will update accordingly to avoid confusion.
🔍 Momentum Outlook
D1: Momentum is rising, supporting the continuation of Wave 3 into next week.
H4: Still bullish; needs 1–2 more candles to reach the overbought zone.
H1: Currently overbought → possible pullback if price hits the 3390–3393 resistance.
⏱️ Bearish momentum reversal at 3390–3393 → confluence zone for a SELL setup
⏱️ Bullish momentum reversal at 3358–3355 → confluence zone for a BUY setup
🎯 Trading Plan
BUY ZONE: 3358 – 3355
SL: 3348
TP1: 3375 | TP2: 3389
SELL ZONE: 3390 – 3393
SL: 3404
TP1: 3375 | TP2: 3358
XAUUSD – Weak Rebound, Downside Pressure RemainsGold is currently testing the 3,339 resistance zone – a confluence with the EMA34 and EMA89, which has rejected price multiple times before. The current rebound is weak, suggesting that buyers are struggling. The bearish structure is becoming clearer with lower highs. If gold fails to break this resistance, it could retreat to 3,303; a break below that would likely open the way down to the 3,264 support level.
On the news front, the gold market is being heavily influenced by the ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations in London. This major event could spark unpredictable volatility. If tensions ease, safe-haven demand for gold may fade, further supporting the short-term bearish outlook.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | June 11, 2025
📊 Elliott Wave Structure – H1 Outlook
Currently, the price is moving sideways within a channel.
🔍 Wave Structure Analysis:
Looking closely at the wave patterns inside this price channel, we can clearly see a series of 3-wave structures developing. Previously, we also observed what appears to be an abc corrective pattern (black), which leads me to suspect that we might be forming a triangle structure as the beginning of a wave 1 sequence (12345 in green).
It seems that wave 4 has already completed, and the price is currently in wave 5. Structurally, wave 5 may take the form of a 3-wave move, and the key confirmation we want to see is a break above 3349, signaling that the top of wave 5 is in place.
☄️ Typically, once a wave 1 triangle completes, the market tends to enter a sharp and deep corrective move in the form of a zigzag.
🎯 Potential Target Zones (based on Fibonacci + Volume Profile):
Target Zone 1: 3352 – 3355
Target Zone 2: 3362 – 3365
⚡ Momentum Outlook:
D1 Momentum: Starting to turn bullish, suggesting the current correction is nearing completion and we could see a bullish week ahead.
H4 Momentum: Currently in overbought territory – I expect the price to break above 3349, followed by a momentum reversal on H4, which could provide a great SELL opportunity at the upper targets.
H1 Momentum: Is about to turn bearish, indicating a short-term pullback may occur. If this correction fails to break below 3315, the price may be completing wave 5 as a 3-wave structure. In that case, we should wait for H1 momentum to turn bullish and then bearish again to confirm wave 5 completion.
📌 Trading Plan:
🔻 SELL Zone: 3352 – 3355
⛔ Stop Loss: 3369
🎯 TP1: 3334
🎯 TP2: 3307
XAUUSD Bearish Rejection Setup Unfolding – June 11, 2025XAUUSD Bearish Rejection Setup Unfolding – June 11, 2025 🧠🔍
📊 Technical Breakdown:
🔴 Resistance Rejection Zone (Supply Area)
Price recently tested the $3,440 - $3,460 resistance zone, marked with red arrows. This zone previously acted as a strong supply area, leading to aggressive sell-offs.
📉 Bearish Rejection Candle
A rejection occurred near the same supply zone again, hinting at a potential double top or failure to break structure. Sellers seem to defend this area aggressively.
📍 Current Price: $3,338.6
Price is hovering below mid-range resistance at $3,396.5, indicating weakness after a failed breakout.
📉 Bearish Plan in Motion:
🔁 Scenario Highlighted:
Price might retest the $3,396.5 level (purple line) before resuming the downward move (illustrated by the blue and black arrows).
A breakdown below the $3,290.3 support zone will likely trigger further downside.
🎯 Target Levels:
1st Target: $3,290.3 – Key structural support. A close below this level will confirm the bearish momentum.
2nd Target: $3,207.0 – Final support area aligned with previous accumulation zone.
🛑 Invalidation Point:
A sustained breakout above $3,460 would invalidate the bearish bias and suggest continuation to the upside.
✅ Summary:
Bias: Bearish 📉
Strategy: Sell on pullback to $3,396.5 with stops above $3,460.
Targets: 🎯 $3,290.3 ➡️ $3,207.0
Watch for a strong bearish confirmation candle below $3,290.3 to load in shorts.
🔔 Stay alert for volume spikes and lower time-frame breakdowns to fine-tune entries! 💼📊
GOLD IN SIDEWAY PHASE, WAITING FOR A BREAKOUT THROUGH KEY LEVELSXAU/USD TRADING PLAN 10/06/2025 – GOLD IN SIDEWAY PHASE, WAITING FOR A BREAKOUT THROUGH KEY LEVELS!
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT – FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Geopolitical tensions and monetary policy: The market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, with major decisions pending from important meetings, especially statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and global conflict situations. These factors could have a significant impact on market sentiment and volatility in gold.
Weak economic data from major economies such as the U.S. and the Eurozone indicates challenging economic conditions, leading investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset.
Interest rates: Although the Fed continues its rate hike policy, financial market uncertainties could continue to support gold as a preferred asset class.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the M30–H1 timeframe, XAU/USD is currently moving within a rising channel. After the correction in Wave 4, gold has bounced back in the 335x region and is now preparing to confirm the next trend. Signals from EMA indicate accumulation, potentially setting up for a strong rally ahead.
Key resistance levels: 3,338 – 3,345 (unexplored FVG region). If gold breaks above 3,345, a continued rise to 3,353 is highly likely.
Key support levels: 3,282 – 3,275. If gold retests these levels without breaking them, the chances of a rebound are strong.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY
🔵 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3,302 - 3,304
SL: 3,296
TP: 3,306 → 3,310 → 3,314 → 3,318 → 3,325
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3352 - 3354
SL: 3,358
TP: 3,348 → 3,344 → 3,340 → 3,330 → 3,320
⚠️ NOTE:
Risk management: Expect significant volatility as the market awaits important news this week.
Wait for confirmation: Technical signals are for guidance; clear confirmation from the charts is needed before entering trades.
📌 CONCLUSION:
Gold is currently in a sideway phase and may be preparing for a breakout if these key support and resistance levels are breached.
Traders should monitor both macroeconomic factors and strategic price zones to make informed trading decisions.
Elliott Wave Analysis – Trading Strategy Update | June 10, 2025
📊 Elliott Wave Analysis – Trading Strategy Update | June 10, 2025
Currently, the market is presenting multiple wave scenarios with nearly equal probabilities. To avoid noise and gain clarity, we are shifting our analysis to the H4 timeframe.
🔹 Key Price Zone
As highlighted in yesterday’s update, the 3340 level remains a critical resistance. Price failed to break above this level and has since pulled back to 3307.
🔹 Momentum & Volume Profile
- H4 Momentum: Just one more H4 candle and the momentum indicator will likely enter the oversold zone, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening.
- Volume Profile: Price is clearly reacting at the green POC zone, with no signs of a breakdown yet.
🧩 Two Main Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Wave 5 Continues Lower
Price is potentially forming wave 5, with:
🎯 Target 1: 3290
🎯 Target 2: 3279
✅ Confirmation: Break below 3294
⚠️ Note: This is the most obvious scenario, and in trading, what’s most obvious often requires the most caution.
Scenario 2: Correction Completed – Wave 3 Uptrend Forming
- The black ABC correction has likely completed.
- The recent upward move could be wave 1; the current pullback is wave 2.
- Wave 3 is expected next.
✅ Necessary Condition: Price breaks above 3340
✅ Sufficient Condition: Price breaks the top of wave b (black)
➡️ For this scenario, limit orders may not be effective — real-time confirmation will be required.
📉 Momentum Overview:
- D1 Timeframe: Approaching oversold territory — likely to see a recovery over the next 5–7 daily candles.
- H4 Timeframe: Also nearing oversold — an intraday bounce is expected today.
🎯 Trading Plan:
🔵 Buy Zone 1:
Entry: 3292 – 3289
Stop Loss: 3282
TP1: 3306
TP2: 3340
TP3: 3375
🔵 Buy Zone 2:
Entry: 3281 – 3279
Stop Loss: 3271
TP1: 3307
TP2: 3340
TP3: 3375
Gold ,Momentum on MuteGold continues to trade within a well-defined range, showing no clear breakout or breakdown. Price remains trapped between the narrow range . Despite brief upward attempts, bearish pressure near the red trendline has kept the market capped this suggesting indecision as neither bulls nor bears have seized control. Unless we see a decisive break above 3330-40 area (previous support now resistance) red descending trendline or below the support region, price is likely to remain sideways and choppy in the short term.
This remains a non-trading zone for directional traders. Better opportunities may emerge after a volatility expansion outside this range.
XAUUSD – Holding support, eyeing breakout aheadGold has paused its decline after falling out of the ascending channel and is now testing the support area around 3,279 USD. This zone is a confluence of a key demand area and recent swing lows. If this level holds, XAUUSD may rebound to retest the resistance near 3,358 USD – where the EMA34 and EMA89 are also positioned.
Notably, the long-term bullish structure remains intact, and price action may be forming a consolidation phase before a potential upward move. If upcoming CPI, PPI, and NFP data come in weaker, expectations of a Fed rate cut could rise – a factor that typically supports gold. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal.
XAUUSD – Breaks Support Line, Risk of Deeper CorrectionOn the H4 timeframe, gold has officially broken below the ascending trendline formed since mid-May, after several successful retests. This is a clear sign that the short-term uptrend is losing momentum.
Following the trendline breakdown, price is currently making a mild pullback, retesting the confluence zone of EMA34–EMA89 around 3,323 to 3,336 USD. However, if this zone continues to act as resistance, the pullback pattern will complete and open up the possibility of further decline toward the next support area around 3,264 USD – which previously held price well.
Moreover, gold remains under pressure due to the US dollar’s strong rebound amid expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates. Hot CPI and PPI forecasts are delaying rate cut hopes, further weighing on gold prices.
Potential Breakdown with Retest or Reversal Zone This chart represents a classic Double Top pattern, a bearish reversal signal indicating strong resistance around the 3,380 - 3,390 USD zone (marked with two white circles).
🔍 Key Zones and Levels:
1. Resistance Zone (~3,380 - 3,390 USD):
Price was rejected twice here.
Suggests strong selling pressure and buyer exhaustion.
2. Mid Support/Retest Zone (~3,337.857 USD):
Marked with a horizontal white line.
Could act as a short-term resistance if price retraces.
3. Demand Zone (~3,330 - 3,337 USD):
Highlighted green box: potential reversal/retest zone.
Bullish scenario: price bounces from here and heads back to retest resistance.
4. Current Price (~3,309.980 USD):
Price has broken below the demand zone and is approaching strong horizontal support.
5. Lower Support (~3,265 - 3,270 USD):
Highlighted with blue horizontal lines and purple arrows.
Could be the next bearish target if breakdown is confirmed.
🔄 Two Possible Scenarios:
📉 Bearish Continuation:
Price retests the broken demand zone (now resistance).
Rejects and forms a lower high.
Falls toward the lower support around 3,265–3,270 USD.
📈 Bullish Reversal:
Price reclaims the green demand zone.
Pushes above 3,337.857 USD level.
Heads back to retest the double top area (~3,380
✅ Conclusion:
The bias is currently bearish, supported by:
Double top formation.
Breakdown below key demand zone.
Momentum favoring further downside
However, a bullish reversal is possible if price reclaims the 3,337 USD zone and shows strong bullish structure.
Elliott Wave Pattern – XAUUSD Trading Plan for June 8, 2025
Elliott Wave Analysis
After Friday’s deep decline, price touched the level of wave 1 (black), invalidating the flat wave 4 scenario. Currently, the structure of wave 5 (black) appears to be a terminal triangle, and the sharp and steep drop afterward is consistent with post-terminal triangle behavior.
Post wave 5 completion, two possible bearish scenarios emerge:
Scenario 1: Price is forming a zigzag (abc in black). Wave c may have completed at 3305 — the first target. However, 3290 remains a significant lower target. A recovery that breaks above 3340 would help invalidate Scenario 2.
Scenario 2: Price is in a 5-wave bearish impulse. To confirm this, price must not break above 3340, as that would overlap with wave 1 and invalidate the structure. If this holds, the next key target lies below 3245.
Momentum Analysis
Daily (D1): When the market opens this week, momentum is expected to enter oversold territory — suggesting a weakening downtrend. Confirmation is needed.
H4: Momentum is already in oversold territory, indicating a potential bullish move early in the week.
H1: Also oversold. A reversal is likely during the Asian or European session, favoring Scenario 1 and a buy setup near wave c = wave a.
Trading Plan
Buy 3305 – 3302
SL: 3295
TP1: 3340
TP2: 3393
Buy 3292 – 3289
SL: 3282
TP1: 3305
TP2: 3340
TP3: 3393
Waiting for the Breakout: Consolidation or Trend Continuation?XAUUSD – Waiting for the Breakout: Consolidation or Trend Continuation?
Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a narrowing range, building momentum after rebounding from the 3.276 support area. Despite short-term uncertainties, the overall macroeconomic landscape continues to favor bullish scenarios — though key resistance levels must be cleared to confirm continuation.
🌍 MACRO & MARKET SENTIMENT
USD Weakness: The DXY continues to trade under pressure, increasing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
US–China Trade Talks: Ongoing high-level negotiations in London could either ease geopolitical tensions or fuel safe-haven demand, depending on outcomes.
Global Risk Appetite: With US debt ceiling concerns still looming and the Fed showing hesitancy to cut rates soon, gold remains in focus as a hedge.
📈 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (30M–H1)
The price has formed a descending wedge structure and is hovering near key EMAs (13–34–89–200).
A breakout above 3,334 could trigger a short-term bullish wave, while failure at this zone would likely lead to deeper correction toward 3,276 or lower.
📍 STRATEGIC KEY LEVELS
Resistance: 3,334 – 3,336 – 3,362 – 3,390
Support: 3,300 – 3,276 – 3,250
🧭 TRADING SCENARIOS
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3,276 – 3,274
SL: 3,270
TP: 3,280 → 3,284 → 3,288 → 3,292 → 3,296 → 3,300
🔻 SELL SCALP: 3,334 – 3,336
SL: 3,340
TP: 3,330 → 3,326 → 3,322 → 3,318 → 3,314 → 3,310
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3,362 – 3,364
SL: 3,368
TP: 3,358 → 3,354 → 3,350 → 3,346 → 3,340 → 3,335 → 3,330 → 3,320
✅ SUMMARY
Gold remains in a critical range, and traders should focus on well-defined zones to capitalize on volatility. Use confirmation-based entries and respect risk parameters — especially as macro headlines and technical patterns align for a potential breakout.
XAUUSD – Shaky below resistance, clear bearish signal formingGold is showing signs of weakness after retesting the resistance area around 3,394 USD. The current price structure indicates a failed minor rebound – most likely a false breakout, suggesting the potential for another leg down.
On the H4 chart, price has slipped below the EMA34 and is heading toward the EMA89 zone. If selling pressure continues, the next target will be the strong support around 3,167 USD. A break below this level could trigger a deeper decline toward the 3,114 USD zone.
Notably, price action is forming a short-term “lower high” – a classic characteristic of a downtrend. The strategy now is to closely monitor the retracement zone around 3,320–3,330 USD for reversal signals, rather than trying to catch a bottom too early.
Sideways Gold, Stronger Dollar: A Pause Before the BreakGold attempted a bullish breakout recently but failed to sustain momentum and is now back within a consolidation zone between 3,250–3,350. The repeated failure to break above descending trendline resistance suggests weakening buyer strength. It is currently forming lower highs, indicating distribution or sideways movement rather than a clear rally.
On the other hand, DXY has bounced from a key demand zone near 99.00, showing signs of short-term strength. It is now targeting the 102.60–104. resistance zone, which aligns with a Fibonacci retracement. If DXY continues higher, it could put pressure on gold prices in the near term.
Given this context, it is wise to remain on the sidelines for the next 2–3 weeks and wait for one of two scenarios:
1. DXY rejection from the 102.60–104 area – This would support a bullish case for gold.
2. Gold breakout above 3,400 with strong volume or need another bounce from lower support area as marked on chart which can provide confirmation of bullish continuation.
Until then, gold is likely to stay in a range or face minor downside due to DXY strength.
XAUUSD – Reaccumulating below key resistanceGold is following the textbook pattern of a strong uptrend on the D1 chart. After bouncing from the support zone around EMA34 and EMA89, the price is continuing to consolidate just below the major resistance around 3,397.500 USD.
What’s notable is that this level previously rejected price, so the current pause in momentum is understandable. However, as long as the price holds above the support zone around 3,171.600 USD – which aligns with EMA89 and the prior demand zone – the bullish structure remains intact.
The most reasonable scenario now is to wait for a clear bounce from the EMA region or a confirmed breakout above resistance. If a breakout occurs, the next target will likely be the previous high around 3,434.500 USD.
On the news front, U.S. jobless claims have slightly increased this week, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged – an indirect boost for gold.
NFP STORM BREWING: WILL GOLD BREAK HIGHER OR DIVE LOWER?XAUUSD – NFP STORM BREWING: WILL GOLD BREAK HIGHER OR DIVE LOWER?
Gold enters a highly sensitive phase ahead of tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release – one of the most influential data points for global financial markets. With US-China trade tensions rekindling and sovereign debt concerns mounting in the US, the yellow metal could experience a major breakout or a sharp reversal during the New York session.
🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
US-China trade talks have resurfaced, with concerns around tariffs and strategic metals dominating headlines. China's recent stance signals it may take stronger defensive actions.
The US national debt is projected to hit $55 trillion by 2034, prompting global central banks to ramp up gold purchases as a strategic hedge.
Fed Chair Powell reiterated a “no rush to cut” stance, yet political pressure is mounting – especially with Donald Trump urging immediate rate cuts following the weakest ADP job growth in two years.
Unemployment Claims released today came in slightly better than expected (236K vs. 240K), adding fuel to speculations around a softer NFP print – potentially bullish for gold.
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 – EMA 13/34/89/200)
The chart shows a clean impulsive wave structure. After hitting the resistance zone at 3408–3410, gold entered a consolidation range.
Price is currently hovering around EMA 89–200, suggesting trend divergence and uncertainty ahead of NFP.
A breakdown below the 3344–3332 support zone could push price down to the FVG (Fair Value Gap) at 3320, which may act as a strong liquidity pool for buyers.
⚠️ KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance: 3380 – 3392 – 3408 – 3436
Support: 3365 – 3350 – 3344 – 3332 – 3320
🧭 TRADE SETUPS
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3408 – 3410
Stop Loss: 3415
Take Profit: 3404 → 3400 → 3395 → 3390 → 3380 → 3370 → 3360 → 3350
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3318 – 3316
Stop Loss: 3310
Take Profit: 3322 → 3326 → 3330 → 3335 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → ???
✅ CONCLUSION
Gold is poised for a volatile breakout with NFP acting as the key catalyst. A soft jobs report may trigger a breakout above 3410, while stronger-than-expected numbers could fuel a bearish reversal. In this sensitive phase, traders should stick to defined zones and wait for confirmed liquidity reactions rather than chasing price impulsively.
Gold Uptrend Continues June 6, 2025As yesterday Gold made high of 3403, I was expecting to cross upto 3430 but it dropped sharply. News was strong and as it made cautious to investors and safe heaven asset declines moved back to riskers market to 3340.
Now today you can check a pattern and gold is moving in that support and resistance, expecting it to move upward. Currently the situation is unexpected as gold may come down to 3340 and then move upward or directly upward from 3358. Our target is 3375-3389-3400.
Key point.
Resistance - 3360, 3375, 3389, 3400
Support - 3340, 3354
Any Query Reach Us or comment down
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XAUUSD – Awaiting Non-Farm, will gold hold its ground?The H8 chart shows gold retesting a key resistance zone around 3,426 USD after an impressive recovery run. Price action remains solid above the rising trendline and is supported by the EMA 34–89, indicating that the bullish structure is still well intact.
However, the upper resistance zone is causing some hesitation in the market. If gold fails to break through immediately, a minor pullback toward the 3,330 – 3,290 USD area is highly possible. If this zone holds, it would present a good opportunity to rejoin the uptrend.
On the news front, today’s spotlight is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. If the jobs data comes in weaker than expected, expectations for a Fed rate cut will likely increase – a scenario that could benefit gold significantly as a non-yielding asset.